Gerald Midgley

1. Hull University Business School
An Introduction to Systems Thinking
for Tackling Wicked Problems
Gerald Midgley

2. This Talk will Cover…
• What are ‘wicked problems’?
• What is systems thinking?
• Different systems approaches for different
purposes, with practical examples
• Three systemic principles for addressing wicked
problems

3. Wicked Problems involve…
• Many interlinked issues, cutting across the usual silos
(e.g., economy, health and environment), making for a
high degree of complexity
• Multiple agencies (across the public, private and
voluntary sectors) trying to account for multiple scales
(local, regional, national and global)
• Many different views on the problem and potential
solutions
• Conflict over desired outcomes or the means to achieve
them, and power relations making change difficult
• Uncertainty about the possible effects of action

4. Four Systems Thinking Skills
(adapted from Cabrera et al, 2008)
Boundary
System Perspective
Relationship

5. Emphases of Different Systems Approaches
Boundary
System Perspective
Relationship
Approaches for
exploring value and
boundary judgements
about what should be
included in or excluded
from analysis
Approaches for
developing viable and
highly responsive
organisations at
multiple levels (global
to local)
Approaches for
understanding complex
causality; feedback;
vicious and virtuous
circles; and the possible
consequences of
intervention
Approaches for
addressing conflict;
exploring multiple
perspectives; developing
mutual understanding;
and agreeing solutions
that people are willing to
implement

6. Emphases of Different Systems Approaches
Boundary
System Perspective
Relationship
Approaches for
exploring value and
boundary judgements
about what should be
included in or excluded
from analysis

7. The Boundary Idea
Values
Boundary
Inclusion of
stakeholders
and issues
Exclusion of
stakeholders and
issues

8. Developing Services for Young People (under
16) Living on the Streets
Young people on the streets are marginalised in two
ways:
• As young people under 16, they are regarded as less
rational and less able to make informed decisions
about their own lives than adults
• Living on the streets, they can easily be regarded as
‘troubled teenagers’ on the fringes of society, and are
often vilified for their involvement in petty crime,
prostitution, etc.

9. Developing Services for Young People
(under 16) Living on the Streets
To deal with this marginalisation we:
• Sought the views of young people before involving
professionals so the voices of the former were not crowded
out
• Communicated their words (not just ours) to professionals,
to convey the emotional experience of being on the streets,
thereby securing multi-agency commitments to change
• Used the same design methods with young people as with
professionals to ensure we did not reproduce the perception
that young people are less ‘rational’

10. Emphases of Different Systems Approaches
Boundary
System Perspective
Relationship
Approaches for
understanding complex
causality; feedback;
vicious and virtuous
circles; and the possible
consequences of
intervention

11. Pressure to
intensify
farming
Herd
composition
Stocking
rate
Bug
shedding
rate
Bug levels
in cows
Level of
pasture
contamination
Extent stock
drinking water
contaminated
Extent cows
exposed to
bugs
No.
occupationally
infected
people
Farm
worker
immunity
Industry skill
shortage
Pressure to
adopt once a
day milking
Infected cow
regurgitation
Herd
accessibility to
surface water Pressure to
adopt farming
best practice
Profitability
of farm
Cost to
farmer
Bug input into
surface water
from direct cow
contact
Degree of
surface water
contamination
Aquatic
die off
Bug
concentration in
surface/
subsurface run
off
Amount of
dairyshed
effluent
Irrigation vol.
Needed to
support
productive farm
Degree of
groundwater
contamination
Degree of
drinking water
source
contamination
Cumulative
contamination
in catchment
Lowland
stream
water
quality
Degree of
feral shellfish
bed
contamination
No. infected
people
No. immune
people
No.
susceptible
people
D
e
l
a
y
Drinking
water
treatment
effiacy
Vol. human
sewage
containing
bugs
Recreational
water
contamination
Immunity
levels
No. people
suffering from
serious sequale
e.g. Guillain Barre
syndrome
No.
notifications to
public health
service
Extent that dairy
farm zoonoses are
seen as important
public health issue
Stocking
rate
+
+
+
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
-Worker
hygiene
-
+
+
-
+ +
+
+
+
+
+ -
-
+
-
++
+
+
+
-
+
+
Regardless of whether
the price inc. or dec.
there is pressure to
intensify production
Stocking
rate
‘Green’ variables are
ghosts i.e. they appear
more than once in the
influence diagram
Second draft of simulator based on end-user interviews
Viability
Virulence
Infectivity
+
-
-
+
+
+
-
+
-
System Dynamics

12. Emphases of Different Systems Approaches
Boundary
System Perspective
Relationship
Approaches for
developing viable and
highly responsive
organisations at
multiple levels (global
to local)

13. The Viable System Model
1
1
1
1
2
3
4
5
3*

14. Emphases of Different Systems Approaches
Boundary
System Perspective
Relationship
Approaches for
addressing conflict;
exploring multiple
perspectives; developing
mutual understanding;
and agreeing solutions
that people are willing to
implement

15. Soft Systems Methodology
• Map the mess!

16. Example of a Rich Picture of Water
Management Issues

17. Soft Systems Methodology
• Map the mess!
• Identify possible transformations that different people want
• Explore what these mean to different people to ensure that
people are not talking past one another

18. BATWOVE
• Beneficiaries
• Actors
• Transformation
• Worldview
• Owners
• Victims
• Environmental Constraints

19. Soft Systems Methodology
• Map the mess!
• Identify possible transformations that different people want
• Explore what these mean to different people to ensure that
people are not talking past one another
• Map the activities that would be needed to make the
transformations a reality

20. Example of a Conceptual Model
(1) Introduce the roadmap
concept to people in the
relevant sectors (e.g., through
meetings, documents)
(2) Set up the individual
roadmaps (e.g., form steering
groups, develop generic tools
and templates, collate
evidence)
(3) Communicate early thinking with a
wide range of stakeholders (e.g.,
circulate drafts, hold workshops)
(4) Finalise thinking in
consultation with key
agencies (e.g., steering
groups, ministries)
(5) Support implementation in
relevant science sectors

21. Soft Systems Methodology
• Map the mess!
• Identify possible transformations that different people
want
• Explore what these mean to different people to ensure
that people are not talking past one another
• Map the activities that would be needed to make the
transformations a reality
• Compare back to the earlier picture of the mess
• Look for accommodations between different
perspectives and agree desirable and feasible changes
• Move to action

22. Three Systemic Principles for Managing
Wicked Problems
1. Explore boundaries (stakeholders and issues), values
and processes of marginalisation up-front, and revisit
the boundaries of your work when new aspects of a
wicked problem present themselves.
2. Draw upon and mix methods from across the systems
approaches (and the biophysical and social sciences)
to be as responsive as possible to the multiple
dimensions of wicked problems.
3. If you have no previous (or limited) experience, start
from where you are. Try new methods when the need
arises, and build capacity for the longer term.