The Global Financial Crisis and the Poor
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John Hoddinott (IFPRI) 30th April 2009, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
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The Global Financial Crisis and the Poor
- 1. The Global Financial Crisis and the Poor John Hoddinott IFPRI
- 2. Channels of Impact on Poverty and Hunger Primary Secondary • Trade Volume • Linkages and multiplier • Manufactures effects • Services • Primary commodities • Changes in terms of trade • Source of government revenue • Remittances • Aid • Composition of government expenditure • Foreign Direct Investment INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
- 3. IMF Estimates of countries at risk INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
- 4. Countries at Risk by Global Hunger Index Risk Mean Country GHI Aid Country GHI Aid Level GHI Dep Dep Afghanistan 30* † Liberia 32 High 24 CAR 28 Malawi 22 † Medium M di 17 Congo DR 43 Mauritania 18 Low 15 Cote d'Ivoire 15 Philippines 14 Ethiopia 31 † Sudan 21 † El Salvador 6 Tajikistan 26 Guinea 21 Zambia 29 Haiti 24 † INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
- 5. Priority Countries and the Role of Social Protection • Three sets of countries: • High GHI, High at risk, Highly Aid Dependent • High GHI, High at risk, Commodity Dependent • High GHI, Medium/Low Risk but where there are strong g , g secondary channels of transmission • Within th Withi these countries, the role of Social Protection is t ti th l f S i l P t ti i to • Protect living standards of poor • Prevent more households from falling into poverty traps • Contribute to recovery and longer term growth INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
- 6. A Tale of Two Countries • Mexico’s Financial Crisis (1995) • Revamp existing social protection programs • Introduce PROGRESA • Eliminate/scale back poorly performing subsidies • Indonesia, East Asian Financial Crisis (1998) • Rice subsidy y • “Crash program” of public works that were not well coordinated INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
- 7. Rural Poverty Rates Mexico Indonesia 60 30 25 50 20 40 15 30 10 P0 P0 20 5 10 0 0 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
- 8. Messages • Policy response, including a social protection response, must recognize heterogeneity of effects across and within t i h t it f ff t d ithi countries • Social protection component should not be designed to both mitigate current shock while laying the foundation for sustainable recovery. It should not be ad hoc. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE