Impacts of the InovAgro II Project in Northern Mozambique

Impacts of the InovAgro II
Project in Northern Mozambique
Hosaena Ghebru*, Jenny Smart* and Helder Zavale^
*International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI),
Development Strategy and Governance Division
^Eduardo Mondlane University (UEM)
Maputo, Mozambique | July 18, 2019

Presentation Overview
 Introduction
 InovAgro II expected outcomes
 IFPRI’s study design
 Preliminary Results
o General Characteristics
o Key Findings:
• Demonstration plots and field days
• Access to market information and extension services
• Production of focus value chain crops
• Sales of focus value chain crops
 Conclusion and Policy Implications

Introduction
 In this session of the workshop, we are inviting you to learn about and
participate in a discussion concerning the preliminary results of the IFPRI
mid-term impact evaluation of the second phase of Innovation for
Agribusiness (InovAgro II) project’s interventions in Northern Mozambique.
 We believe that high-quality research certainly will have limited impact
unless it is communicated to those who can use it, share it, learn from it,
build upon it, and adapt it.

Introduction, continued
 InovAgro II is a development program intended to decrease rural poverty by improving the
connectedness of farmers to market systems.
 The InovAgro project is funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation
(SDC) and implemented by Development Alternatives Inc. (DAI) in partnership with
COWI.
 The InovAgro project operates in 11 districts—namely Mocuba, Ile, Namarroi, Molumbo,
Gurúe and Alto Molócue in Zambézia province; Malema, Ribáuè and Erati in Nampula
province; and Namuno and Chiúre in Cabo Delgado province.
 The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has carried out an independent
quantitative impact evaluation, also funded by SDC, measuring the impact on households
of a market system development approach in pigeon pea and soya bean value chains in
northern Mozambique.
 One of the key anticipated outcomes of IFPRI’s research project is that the Mozambican
government, donors and other stakeholders benefit from a scientifically sound impact
evaluation demonstrating the benefits of market system development approach which will
influence the design of future agricultural policies in Mozambique.

InovAgro II expected outcomes
 The key indicators expected by the end of the InovAgro II project are increased annual net profit per
hectare of production of soybean, pigeonpea, groundnut and sesame for poor men and women
small scale farmers lacking in income and economic security.
 To meet this overarching goal, three major outcomes of the project were outlined in the original
logframe of the project.
 Outcome 1: Increase smallholder participation in commercial value chains and smallholder
competitiveness.
o The project’s extension intervention strategy and organized field days are the primary vehicles
for achieving the objective of improving farmers’ production capacity.
o Extension officers help raise demand for quality seed and other yield-enhancing agricultural
inputs, and support the promotion of good agricultural practices in general, such as planting in
a timely manner, weeding, etc.
o The InovAgro project has primarily attempted to increase smallholder farmers’ access to
interconnected services such as finance and mechanization by:
• facilitating the relationships of financial institutions,
• leveraging savings groups to get them to add an additional “savings for seed” product
• promoting the relationship between smallholder farmers and mechanization service
providers.

InovAgro II expected outcomes, cont.
 Outcome 2: Increase direct transactions between private sector companies and
smallholder farmers.
o The project’s output trading market strategy, as well as the project’s seed market
strategy have both been the primary vehicles for achieving the objective of creating
market linkages among agricultural output buyers, input suppliers and smallholder
farmers.
 Outcome 3: Increase commercial transactions, market-oriented relationships and
effective supply coordination in the seed industry.
o The project’s seed market strategy is the primary means of achieving the objective of
increasing the effective demand for certified seed by smallholder farmers.
o The InovAgro project also seeks a better enabling environment and services for
certified seed production and sales by means of working with the national seed
dialogue platform, NSDP, on their operational plan, and supporting Mozambique’s
National Directorate of Agrarian Services (DNSA) in management of a website tool for
disseminating information to private stakeholders and a seed quality accreditation
program.

IFPRI Evaluation Study Design
 Initially IFPRI, SDC, and the implementing agency
DAI agreed that a randomized controlled trial (or
experimental) approach would be used in the
impact evaluation, and the research proposal was
designed based on this approach.
 Shortly before conducting the baseline survey,
however, it was determined that the experimental
design, in which the treatment and control areas are
selected randomly, was not feasible due to
limitations faced by DAI.
 Instead, DAI selected four communities in each
district where InovAgro’s intervention would be
carried out. All selected treatment communities
were located in the same administrative post within
each district.
 The control communities were selected from
comparable localities in a different administrative
post from where the treatment communities are
located to reduce spillover effects.
District
Administrative
Posts
Treatment
Communities
Control
Communities

Study Design, cont.
 The household listing exercise in both treatment and
control areas secured information about the
households regarding age and gender of household
head and their soybean and/or pigeon pea production.
 This listing information was used to select the final set
of control communities based on the extent of soybean
and/or pigeon pea cultivation.
 The final sample is drawn from 16 communities in 4
administrative posts in two InovAgro-focus districts in
Zambézia province: Alto Molócue and Molumbo,
 Within each of these two districts, the study areas are
comprised of four beneficiary (treatment) communities
and four non-beneficiary (control) communities,
totaling eight beneficiary and eight non-beneficiary
communities.
2015 2017
District Administrative
post
Community N % N %
Molumbo
Treatment
Molumbo-
Sede
Benesse 117 6.2 114 6.5
Macolo-
cotxo
100 5.3 89 5.1
Mugoliua 120 6.4 105 6.0
Nandie 108 5.7 97 5.6
Control
Corromana
-Sede
Bediua 96 5.1 78 4.5
Corromana
-Sede
119 6.3 107 6.1
Impindula-
Sede
121 6.4 109 6.2
Mucoco 125 6.6 116 6.6
Alto
Molócue
Treatment
Nauela
Mohiua 124 6.6 123 7.0
Namilepe 120 6.4 114 6.5
Carmano 123 6.5 123 7.0
Caperula 125 6.6 124 7.1
Control
Alto-
Molócue
Sede
Murico 119 6.3 116 6.6
Napalaca 122 6.5 108 6.2
Lugela 125 6.6 124 7.1
Inrule 122 6.5 102 5.8
Total 1,886 100 1,749 100

Study Design, cont.
 Power calculations during the planning stage of this
project—which were based on the more demanding
methodology of a randomized controlled trial, rather
than the quasi-experimental approach ultimately
pursued—indicated that about 2,000 households were
needed, which is the approximate number generated
when adjusting for design effect and attrition rate.
 The baseline data collection obtained 1,886 unique
observations, due to cases of duplicate households
and other problems identified in the process of data
cleaning.
 And due to attrition, a total of 1,749 households of the
original 1,886 households were re-interviewed during
the midline survey (2017):
o 889 households from the program beneficiary
communities (405 in Molumbo and 484 in Alto Molócue)
and
o 860 households from non-beneficiary communities (410
in Molumbo and 450 in Alto Molócue).
2015 2017
District Administrative
post
Community N % N %
Molumbo
Treatment
Molumbo-
Sede
Benesse 117 6.2 114 6.5
Macolo-
cotxo
100 5.3 89 5.1
Mugoliua 120 6.4 105 6.0
Nandie 108 5.7 97 5.6
Control
Corromana
-Sede
Bediua 96 5.1 78 4.5
Corromana
-Sede
119 6.3 107 6.1
Impindula-
Sede
121 6.4 109 6.2
Mucoco 125 6.6 116 6.6
Alto
Molócue
Treatment
Nauela
Mohiua 124 6.6 123 7.0
Namilepe 120 6.4 114 6.5
Carmano 123 6.5 123 7.0
Caperula 125 6.6 124 7.1
Control
Alto-
Molócue
Sede
Murico 119 6.3 116 6.6
Napalaca 122 6.5 108 6.2
Lugela 125 6.6 124 7.1
Inrule 122 6.5 102 5.8
Total 1,886 100 1,749 100

Study Design, cont.
 Enumerators used Tablet Assisted Personal Interviewing to collect the
data.
 The survey instrument was designed using CSPro and took an average 45
minutes to register.
 The field team consisted of 16 enumerators, supervised by two team
leaders, and managed by two field coordinators.
 Listing and baseline data collection took place in August–September,
2015.
 Data collection for the midline survey took place in October–December,
2017.
 And data collection for the endline survey is starting presently, and will
finish before the end of August, 2019.

Study Design, cont.
 The survey instruments cover
o agricultural production (input usage, most common crops, yields, and
production)
o access to market information and agricultural services (such as
extension services and field days).
o market access and sales of all crops, particularly the InovAgro value
chain crops – soybean, pigeon pea, and maize, while the InovAgro
project interventions focus on five value chains in total (maize,
soybean, pigeon pea, sesame and groundnut).
 We employ difference-in-difference (DID) and propensity score matching
(PSM) approaches to assess the impact of the InovAgro project.

Data and empirical strategy
 For the InovAgro project evaluation, we use primary data coming from two
InovAgro-focus districts in Zambézia province: Alto Molócue and Molumbo,
 Within each of these two districts, the study areas are comprised of four
beneficiary (treatment) communities and four non-beneficiary (control)
communities, totaling eight beneficiary and eight non-beneficiary communities.
 The treatment communities are Benesse, Macolocotxo, Mugoliua, and Nandie in
Molumbo, and Mohiua, Namilepe, Carmano and Caperula in Alto Molócue, while
the control communities are Bediua, Corromana-Sede, Impidula-Sede and
Mucoco in Molumbo, and Murico, Napalaca, Lugela and Inrule in Alto Molócue.
 A total of 1,749 households were interviewed during the baseline survey
(2014/15) and were re-interviewed during a midline survey (2016/17):
o 889 households from the program beneficiary communities (405 in Molumbo
and 484 in Alto Molócue) and
o 860 households from non-beneficiary communities (410 in Molumbo and 450
in Alto Molócue).

Preliminary Results: General Characteristics
 According to the midline survey, agricultural production is the primary economic
activity of 90% of household heads interviewed and 19% of household heads are
female. On average, households have access to 2.3 hectares of land divided
across 1.6 parcels.
 Most parcels are located within the same neighborhood as the household’s
residence, and three quarters of households judge the soil quality of their land as
“good” overall.
 Overall, maize, pigeon pea, and cassava were the most common crops cultivated
in the study areas during the 2016/17 agricultural year – 82%, 79%, and 53% of
farmers grow each crop, respectively. The second season, which stretches from
March to July, is less productive than the first season. About 30.4% of households
use the second season for cultivation, during which, cassava is the most
commonly listed primary crop.

General Characteristics, cont.
 The use of modern inputs in the study areas is relatively low: 46% of households
in Molumbo and 22% of those in Alto Molócue interviewed in 2017 report having
used a modern input of some kind – chemical fertilizer, improved seed,
pesticide/herbicide or inoculant – in the two years prior to being interviewed.
 95% of households have more than one member of the household performing
farm work, while only a quarter of our sample reported hiring labor during the
2016/17 agricultural year.
 Market information is more accessible in Molumbo than Alto Molócue – 78% of
households in Molumbo receive input or output market information, while only
50% of households do in Alto Molócue. At the same time, close to a quarter of
households have at least one member in the family who is a member of a farmer
association: 16% of households in Molumbo and 29% of households in Alto
Molócue.

PART II
METHODOLOGY, RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

MSD programs & quantitative impact
evaluation challenges
Lack of intensity of intervention in
treatment group & generating Comparable
control groups?
o Early beneficiary & late beneficiary; propensity score matching.
External (political, economic &
environmental shocks)
oDifference-in-difference method
Spillover effects (public good)
o Geographically contagious communities; geographic discontinuity design.

Methodological remedies: IE strategy
Lack of intensity of intervention in
treatment group & generating Comparable
control groups?
o Early beneficiary & late beneficiary; propensity score matching.
External (political, economic &
environmental shocks)
oDifference-in-difference method
Spillover effects (public good)
o Geographically contagious communities; geographic discontinuity design
(spatial analysis).

InovAgro CORE INTERVENTION AREAS
Access to Agricultural Inputs
Access to Finance
Output Marketing
Land Tenure

INOVAGRO CORE INTERVENTION AREAS
Access to Agricultural Inputs
Access to Finance
Output Marketing
Land Tenure

InovAgro Impact pathway
 Access to Agricultural Inputs
 Access to Finance
 Output Marketing
 Land Tenure
Improved market perception
& farming practice
Increased Productivity
Increased Income
Overall household welfare
&
Food security

InovAgro IE strategy: cont…
 Land Tenure
& farming practice
Increased Income
&
Food security
Short-term outcomes
long-term outcomes

InovAgro IE strategy: Data plan
 Land Tenure
& farming practice
Increased Income
&
Food security
Short-term outcomes
long-term outcomes
Midline
2016/17
Endline
2018/19
Baseline
2014/15
Short-term outcomes long-term outcomes

InovAgro IE strategy: short-term impact
& farming practice
Increased Income
&
Food security
long-term outcomes
Short-term outcome variables
- Access to input market information
- Access to output market information
- Participation in field days
- Adoption of improved seeds

InovAgro IE strategy: long-term impact
& farming practice
Increased Income
&
Food security
Short-term outcomes
long-term outcome variables
- Use of hired labor
- Sell of agricultural produce
- Volume of production
- Non-farm income activity
- Household welfare index

Biased estimates Positive and
significant

Conclusion
 In conclusion, we find that the InovAgro project is associated with significant
increases in access to agricultural output market information from formal
sources (5%) and hired labor for farming activities (8%).
 We also find that exposure to the InovAgro project increases the proportion of
households selling soybean and pigeon pea by about 5% and 16%, respectively.
 Exposure to the InovAgro project also results in higher shares of smallholder
farmers using improved seed for soybean and pigeon pea (an increase of 6%
for soybean and 2% for pigeon pea).
 Despite the significant impacts on short term outcome variables, the results show
that exposure to the InovAgro project has limited impact on long term outcome
variables (such as farm productivity, household income diversification and overall
welfare outcomes).
 This finding is not surprising given the midline impact evaluation covers only two
years span – relatively short to bring about the long-term impacts expected to
eventually emanate from a Market System Development (MSD) project.

Policy Implications
 The on-going endline survey (July to August of 2019 - four years after the
launch of the intervention) is expected to shed light on the potential
implication of the program in the longterm project outcomes.
 Participation in field days, attending demonstration plots, receiving
extension services are found to be main channels for the impact of the
InovAgro II project.
 Moreover, program impact in influencing small-holder’s attitudes and
behaviors towards market has resulted in positive implications on
agricultural productivity.
 Overall, the intermediary results from our evaluation show that the market
systems development methodology is appropriate and helps maintain the
sustainability of service deliveries to smallholders.

Impacts of the InovAgro II Project in Northern Mozambique

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