A description of research project

1. Patterns of political elite
formation in Post Soviet
Armenia
research project
ASCN Annual Conference 2012
June 30, Yerevan

2. A/ Brief description of the project
Nature of the project
Duration and main phases
 Preparation for the field work
 Data collection
 Analysis and narrative drafting
 Publication of the findings
Research team
 About AREG NGO
 Team members

3. Objectives of the project
To describe and conceptualize the patterns and
practices of political elite formation in Armenia
? What are the main groups/types constituting
modern political elite,
? What are formal and non formal practices of
political elite recruitment,
? What are motivations and values of political
elite members and how those impact their
behavior and decision making,
? What are the differences between current
and future (potential) political elite.

4. Definition of political elite
Approaches to identify and analyze political
elites:
Decisional
Reputational
Positional or institutional
Within our project political elite consists of
elected and appointed officials both on the
national and local levels.

5. Methodology
Research was designed to utilize both
qualitative and quantitative methods.
 Survey
 In depth interviews
 Analysis of biographies
 Content analysis

6. Data collection (first year)
 Representative targeted survey
implemented via standardized face-to-
face interviews with 700 representatives
of potential political elite, RA and NKR,
 Beginning of biographical data collection
of past and current officials (over 1000),
 In-depth interviews with 65
representatives of political elite in
Armenia and Karabakh.

7. Data collection (second year)
 Biographical data collection of past and
current officials,,
 Analysis of legal-institutional framework
of recruiting political elite members,
 Analysis of speeches, interviews and other
materials relevant for studying informal
practices of political elite recruitment
(besides information collected through in
depth interviews).

8. Expected results
 A separate book/collection of papers,
 Rich data available both to scholars
and public policy practitioners,
 Improved research skills.

9. B/ Survey Sample Implementation
Stages of Survey SI Process
 Creation of sample frame and estimating frame
sizes based on statistical data and expert
estimates
 Evaluation and quotation of sample segments
according to frame estimates (across marzes)
 Selection of nets or sample units in each of the
segments (e.g. names of NGOs, universities, pol.
Partie offeces, etc.)
 Random selection of floor and room in identified
buildings using table of random numbers
 Random selection of respondents in identifyed
rooms based on Gallup Institute Methodology

10. Survey Sample Implementation
Main Obstacles During Survey SI
 Lack of official statistical data or other
reliable data sources available for public
 Absence of name by name lists or
complete frames on identifyed segments
for randomized sampling procedures
 Verification and control of random
selection procedures in the field
(submission of SI&V reports by
interviewers)

11. Fieldwork Implementation and
Quality Control
Interviewers/coordinators 2 networks:
1st for survey (comprised of 14 people acting through
subgroups trained for each of sample segments) and 2nd
for in-depth (comprised of 6 people)
Overall Number of Standardized Interviews in RA: 500
Overall Number of Completed In-depth Interviews: 45
Average Standardized Interview Duration: 28 minutes
Average In-depth Interview Duration: 65 minutes
Multistage Quality Control
◦ 1st stage interviewers self control through self-editing on places
◦ 2nd stage interviewers control by coordinators in the field
◦ 3rd stage questionnaire control by quality control team in the
office via control phone calls
◦ 4th stage computer control during and after data entry

12. Fieldwork Implementation and
Quality Control
Main Obstacles
 Gaining cooperation and making,
appointments before and during
Parliamentary and Presidential Elections,
 Dealing with discursive, rambling and
high-rank respondents
 Building rapport and stressing
confidentiality,
 Overcoming insincerity and probing
beneath the surface.

13. Fieldwork Implementation and
Quality Control
Respondents Interest Level
 In-depth respondents more interested in
autobiography sections
 Survey respondents more interested in
sections on political values and ideals
 General high response rates
 Strong collaboration
 Positive emotions and concernment

14. C/ Findings of the Survey
“A good career is a long-lasting career.
When you're there in every competition
doing a good job you're a part of an elite,
and that's the most important thing.”
Blanka Vlasic

15. Sample
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Cumulative
Percent
Valid Civil Servant 140 28.0 28.0 28.0
Party 60 12.0 12.0 40.0
NGO 36 7.2 7.2 47.2
Local Government 102 20.4 20.4 67.6
Student Council 8 1.6 1.6 69.2
Business 18 3.6 3.6 72.8
Science 118 23.6 23.6 96.4
Sport 10 2.0 2.0 98.4
Culture 8 1.6 1.6 100.0
Total 500 100.0 100.0

16. How do you see your future?: * How do you see your future? Crosstabulation
% within How do you see your future?
Your Education Level
TotalSecondary Mid. Secondary Student Graduate PhD
How do you see your future?The future will be better 1.2% 3.0% 3.0% 67.1% 25.6% 100.0%
The future will be a little bit
better
2.2% 8.8% 2.8% 72.9% 13.3% 100.0%
I don’t expect any changes 1.0% 17.2% 70.7% 11.1% 100.0%
I expect worse changes 13.2% 65.8% 21.1% 100.0%
I am sure the future will be
worse than current situation
27.3% 9.1% 63.6% 100.0%
Total 1.4% 9.3% 2.2% 69.8% 17.2% 100.0%
Symmetric Measures
Value
Asymp. Std.
Errora Approx. Tb Approx. Sig.
Ordinal by Ordinal Gamma -.264 .067 -3.839 .000
N of Valid Cases 493
a. Not assuming the null hypothesis.
b. Using the asymptotic standard error assuming the null hypothesis.

17. Sample* demtype Crosstabulation
% within demtype
demtype
TotalProactive Active (4/5) Participant (3/5) Follower (2/5) Passive (1/5)
Subordinate
(0/5)
Sample Civil Servant 10.0% 10.0% 17.0% 38.6% 27.1%
Party 66.7% 37.5% 47.5% 12.0% 17.0% 3.4% 12.4%
NGO 31.3% 15.0% 10.0% 11.0% 3.0% 7.4%
Local Government 12.5% 26.0% 18.0% 24.7% 20.8%
Student Council 6.0% 2.0% .7% 1.5%
Business 4.0% 4.5% 3.4%
Science 33.3% 18.8% 22.5% 32.0% 28.0% 21.3% 23.9%
Sport 2.0% 3.0% 2.1%
Culture 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% .7% 1.5%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

18. For women the work is the best way of having independence * Gender
Crosstab
% within For women the work is the best way of having independence * Gender
Gender
TotalMale Female
For women the work is the best
way of having independence *
Gender
Toally Agree 38.2% 61.8% 100.0%
Partly agree 54.2% 45.8% 100.0%
Partly disagree 53.8% 46.2% 100.0%
Totally disagree 56.7% 43.3% 100.0%
Total 51.0% 49.0% 100.0%
Symmetric Measures
Value Approx. Sig.
Nominal by Nominal Phi .141 .022
Cramer's V .141 .022
N of Valid Cases 484

19. If there are less working opportunities then men should have more right to work than women*
Gender
Crosstab
% within If there are less working opportunities then men should have more right to work than women*
Gender
Gender
TotalMale Female
If there are less working
opportunities then men
should have more right to
work than women* Gender
Entirly agree 60.9% 39.1% 100.0%
Partly agree 65.5% 34.5% 100.0%
Partly disagree 55.1% 44.9% 100.0%
Totally disagree 37.9% 62.1% 100.0%
Total 51.1% 48.9% 100.0%
Symmetric Measures
Value Approx. Sig.
Nominal by Nominal Phi .234 .000
Cramer's V .234 .000
N of Valid Cases 495

20. Sample * Please, evaluate your trust towards social and political institutions in Armenia-Political Parties, Crosstabulation
% within Parties
Please, evaluate your trut towards social and political institutions in Armenia-
Political Parties,
Total
I totally don’t
trust 2 3 4 I totally trust
Parties Civil Servant 15.3% 17.5% 34.3% 23.4% 9.5% 100.0%
Party 13.3% 16.7% 40.0% 15.0% 15.0% 100.0%
NGO 44.4% 19.4% 22.2% 13.9% 100.0%
Local Government 15.8% 15.8% 36.6% 26.7% 5.0% 100.0%
Student Council 12.5% 25.0% 37.5% 25.0% 100.0%
Business 58.8% 5.9% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 100.0%
Science 43.2% 17.8% 16.1% 20.3% 2.5% 100.0%
Sport 50.0% 10.0% 40.0% 100.0%
Culture 50.0% 12.5% 25.0% 12.5% 100.0%
Total 26.7% 16.4% 29.3% 20.8% 6.9% 100.0%

21. Sample * Please, evaluate your trust towards social and political institutions in Armenia-Local Government Cross tabulation
% within Sample
Please, evaluate your trust towards social and political institutions in Armenia-Local
Governenment
Total
I totally don’t
trust 2 3 4 I totally trut
Sample * Please, evaluate
your trust towards social
and political institutions in
Armenia-Local
Governenment
Crosstabulation
Civil Servant 8.0% 12.3% 29.7% 31.9% 18.1% 100.0%
Party 26.7% 18.3% 33.3% 10.0% 11.7% 100.0%
NGO 16.7% 30.6% 36.1% 16.7% 100.0%
Local Government 1.0% 11.8% 27.5% 59.8% 100.0%
Student Council 12.5% 37.5% 50.0% 100.0%
Business 11.1% 27.8% 38.9% 11.1% 11.1% 100.0%
Science 28.0% 15.3% 28.8% 23.7% 4.2% 100.0%
Sport 20.0% 40.0% 30.0% 10.0% 100.0%
Culture 37.5% 25.0% 25.0% 12.5% 100.0%
Total 14.9% 13.9% 27.1% 23.9% 20.3% 100.0%

22. Do you plan to involve in politics? Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Cumulative
Percent
Yes Valid Civil Servant 17 25.0 25.0 25.0
Party 7 10.3 10.3 35.3
NGO 6 8.8 8.8 44.1
Local Government 12 17.6 17.6 61.8
Student Council 5 7.4 7.4 69.1
Business 4 5.9 5.9 75.0
Science 16 23.5 23.5 98.5
Culture 1 1.5 1.5 100.0
Total 68 100.0 100.0

23. No Valid Civil Servant 102 30.0 30.0 30.0
Party 5 1.5 1.5 31.5
NGO 27 7.9 7.9 39.4
Local Government 76 22.4 22.4 61.8
Student Council 1 .3 .3 62.1
Business 14 4.1 4.1 66.2
Science 99 29.1 29.1 95.3
Sport 9 2.6 2.6 97.9
Culture 7 2.1 2.1 100.0
Total 340 100.0 100.0

24. I am already involved Valid Civil Servant 21 22.8 22.8 22.8
Party 48 52.2 52.2 75.0
NGO 3 3.3 3.3 78.3
Local Government 14 15.2 15.2 93.5
Student Council 2 2.2 2.2 95.7
Science 3 3.3 3.3 98.9
Sport 1 1.1 1.1 100.0
Total 92 100.0 100.0

25. Who are the possible elite representatives?

26. Conclusion
According to the research data, the
possible elite representative is a man,
who has high degree of education, is a
party member or civil servant, he has low
degree of trust towards political and social
institutions in Armenia, but at the same
time he is not planning to change the
situation.