Rohit Talwar's keynote speech on Airport 2025 and the future of aviation, given to the ACI Airport Exchange Conference in Abu Dhabi, 30/11/11.

1. Airport 2025 –
Transforming the Passenger Experience
ACI Airport Exchange - Abu Dhabi - 30/11/11
Rohit Talwar - CEO – Fast Future
rohit@fastfuture.com
www.fastfuture.com

2. Contents
Presentation p3
About Fast Future p 92
Background Notes p 103
Image Sources p 360

3. Macro
Drivers

4. The World in 2025

5. How do we get there from Here?
Understand Research & New
the Drivers Innovation Business
Models

7. New Business Thinking
e.g. Ultra-Quick Construction

8. Growth is not Guaranteed…
…Thinking is Back in Fashion

9. Transformational Change?
It’s Only Just Begun

10. 10 Key Patterns of Change Shaping the Next Decade
Economic turbulence, a shift in wealth from west to east and political
uncertainty are shaping the landscape
Natural
Society in Resource Demographic
Transition Challenges Destinies
Geo-political Generational
Complexity Economic Crisis Crossroads
and Power Shift
Rethinking
Technology Talent,
and Science Education,
Training
Enterprise 3.0
Global
Internet
Expansion
Source: Designing your Future – Key Trends, Challenges and Choices – Fast Future

11. Aviation Outlook

12. Airport Expansion by 2020
China from ~150 to 244
India from ~100 to 140
Today - US – 3 Seats per head / China 0.3 / India 0.1
Asia – a third of all flyers (2013) and travel spend (2020)

13. 38% - Under 100 US Airports by 2015
39% - Airports only in Major Euro Cities

14. Low Cost Carriers
64% - Half will Collapse
49% - Massive Growth

15. Virtual Airlines

16. New Business Models / Airlines
Emergence of Virtual Airlines?

17. Industry Scenarios
High
Uncharted Paranoid
Territory Survive
Low High
Passenger Price Sensitivity
Back to the Crash and
Future Burn
Low
Business Model Innovation

18. Sustainable Green Terminals

19. Fast Build, Flexible and
Temporary Terminals
Next - Sustainable Green Terminals?

20. Redistribution of Aviation
Profit Pools

21. Embracing Open Innovation
Airport Living Lab

22. Future
Customers

23. Demographic Destinies
2 billion more people in 40 years –
Demographics is Driving Economics
448 739 691 5231
344
1998 4157
729 1030
585
2010 2050

24. Life Redefined –
Lifespans are Increasing
Under 50’s have 90%
chance of living to 100.
Aubrey de Grey suggests
we could live to 500 or 1000
What are the health,
consumption and resource
implications?
What kind of opportunities
will be created?

25. Tomorrow’s Traveler -
Demographics
• Over 60’s in developed
economies to rise from 22-
33% from 2009 and 2050.
• In developing world, from 9 to
20%
• Global retirement market
2010-2020 could grow from
$28 - $46 Tn
• Global middle class could rise
from 430M to 1.2 Bn (2000 –
2030)
Source: United Nations Report Warns of Dire Effects of Under population, Fertility Decline,’ by Susan Yoshihara, PhD, March 5th 2010, Life
News http://www.lifenews.com/int1479.html http://www.financial-planning.com/news/allianz-retirement-pensions-growth-2668604-1.html

26. Tomorrow’s Traveler –
Spending Patterns
• By 2020, Asian consumers
could account for over 40%
of global middle class
consumption
• By 2030 Asian consumer
spending could hit $32
trillion
• By 2014 female wealth
could reach $18 trillion
• Females could control 70%
of global consumer
spending

27. Traveller Mindsets
 Too Busy To Care
 Complex Lives, Pressurised
Finances
 Craving Simplicity
 Wealthy and Hard to Please

28. Buying Behaviour
• Mobile
• Low loyalty
• Multiple searches and
site visits
• Word of mouth critical
• Value conscious –
price, offers, rewards
• Shorter trips
• Shorter notice
71% - Traveler motivations will become increasingly fragmented /
diverse and harder to segment into clear customer groupings

29. Traveler motivations will become increasingly fragmented and diverse
and harder to segment into clearly definable customer groupings
604 Respondents

30. I will book the bulk of my travel
online in 2015
74% - Will use
64% Social Networks to
Research and Find
Deals
31%
3% 2%
Very likely Likely Unlikely Very unlikely

31. Technology
Horizons

32. Tomorrow’s Traveler – Technology
• Number of mobile subscribers
could rise from 4Bn to 5Bn
2009-2015
• Mobile data traffic to rise 300-
fold by 2015 (Nokia).
• By 2020 the range and nature
of interaction technologies /
customer ‘touch points’ will
expand dramatically.
• ‘Go nowhere’ gamers
• Personal genetic profiles

33. TMT – Convergence and Immersion
Telephony Connectivity
• Voice • Cellular
• Messaging • Up to 14 bands
• SIM card • WLAN/BT
• Phonebook • GPS
• Ring Tones • NFC
• Security • FM
Data/ Multimedia
Enterprise • Camera 8-16M
• Camcorder
• 100Mbps
• 24M Color Display
• Email
• Memory (160GB)
• IMS
• Multiformat A/V
• Browsing
• HD Video/TV out
• VPN
• Games
• PIM
• Ecommerce
Software (50-100M Tps)
• Protocols • DRM
• Payments
• Middleware
• Applications
• User Interface
• Minimize fragmentation

34. Mobile Technology at the Airport
Boarding
Mobile
Interactive Coupons
ads
Social Mobile
networking payments
Security
Automated Notification Self-service
Check-in & guidance Baggage drop
Roaming
© 2011 Amadeus IT Group SA
Agent
Airport entrance
Private
Transportation Public transportation

35. TINA – The Intelligent Airport

36. Cloud Computing

37. Apps – What I Want, When I Want
Source: Forrester

38. Next Generation Smart Phones
• Concierge / Schedule
Management
• Check in
• Notifications / Directions
• Route Management
• User Generated Content
• Wallet
• Location Based Offers
• Dynamic Rerouting
• Personal Networking

39. Apps / Personalised Advertising

40. Holographic Displays

41. Augmented Reality / Heads Up

42. Augmented Reality at
Copenhagen Airport

43. Haptics / Holograms / Interactive Surfaces

44. Wearable Displays

45. Ambient Intelligence

46. Real Time / Predictive Analytics

47. 3D Printing – True Personalization

48. Rethinking the Airport
Experience

49. Live the Customer Journeys and Experiences
 Stimulus / Search / Booking
 Transport to and from the
Airport
 Check in to Flight Departure
 Flight Arrival to Airport Exit
 Flight Transfer - Arrival to
Departure
 Airport Experience
 In Flight Experience
 Relationship Management

50. Mapping Customer Journeys & Experiences
Sub ▪ Traffic ▪ Off airport flight ▪ Arrival at airport by ▪ Parking ▪ Transport from
process information information car/train parking to Plaza
KPI ▪ Traffic jams ▪ Accessibility ▪ Price/Quality LT ▪ Ease of wayfinding
Score 73% 91% / 90% 41% 90%
<Plaza aankomst> <Picture>
Sub ▪ Entering Plaza ▪ Services; ▪ Leaving Plaza ▪ Departure from ▪ Retrieving car &
process rental, parking airport by bus/train Leaving airport
KPI ▪ Clarity ▪ Clarity ▪ Accessibility
Score 77% 77% 90% / 80%

51. Airport Arrival

52. Extended Airport?

53. Check In

54. Next Gen Qantas Check-In

55. Security

56. Are Biometrics the Answer?

57. Flight Departure

58. Minimising Journey Times
and Aircraft Turnaround

59. Arrivals –
Localizing the Experience?

60. Enhancing the Airport Experience –
Service, Food, Leisure and Retail

61. ‘Virtual Assistants’

62. Catering, Lounge and Service
Experiences

63. Extending the Experience

64. The Slide@T3
Changi Airport - Singapore

65. Funding The Future –
From Cabin to Cash Register

66. Leveraging Customer Insight
- Multiple Revenue Streams

67. Leveraging Customer Insight

68. Best Price Guarantees

69. Partner Tie-ins
Pullman Bangkok King Power Hotel

70. In-flight Duty Free
Korean Air - Shop Onboard

71. Passenger Centric, Context Related
e.g. The Virgin Red Store
Single swipe ‘open tab’

72. In Terminal / In-Flight Travel
Agency

73. Booking/Boarding Pass Ads / Offers

74. Daily Social Media Offers e.g. Twitter

75. Rethinking Airport Retail

76. Online Brands Appearing Offline

77. Virtual Grocery Shopping –
Tesco South Korea

78. New Retail Concepts

79. Auctions - The $5,937 Laptop

80. Air Sahara/Jetlite

81. Outsourcing In-flight Duty Free
e.g. BA / Tourvest

82. So How Can we Respond?

83. So How Can we Respond?

84. The Journey to 2025
• Continuous research
• Define change roadmaps –
passenger journeys and
experiences, operations
and technology
• Experiment
• Develop uncertainty
tolerant management

86. Aviation Next – what does the
timeline of developments look
like for the sector in your region?

87. Deep Dive on Key Trends / Issues

88. Be Magnetic

89. Make Time and Space for Change
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/images/090305-daylight-saving-time-facts-history_big.jpg

90. Conclusions
• Huge untapped potential
• Technology is a key enabler
• Encourage innovation and
curiosity
• Experiment with business
models
• Work with and for
tomorrow’s passenger

91. Thank You
Rohit Talwar
CEO
Fast Future
rohit@fastfuture.com
Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766
Mob +44 (0)7973 405145
Twitter http://twitter.com/fastfuture
LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/talwar
www.fastfuture.com
www.convention-2020.com
Blog http://widerhorizons.wordpress.com
Signup for our newsletters / Download past editions at www.fastfuture.com
Watch a short video of Rohit at http://www.travelmole.tv/watch_vdo.php?id=14300
Download the Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation Report at
http://www.amadeus.com/hotelit/beyond-segmentation.html

92. About Fast Future
92

93. Fast Future –
Aviation and Travel Industry
Services
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management and boards of airlines, airports, hotels, venues,
CVB’s and associations
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developments, emerging issues and technology advances
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94. Fast Future
• Research, consulting, speaking, leadership
• 5-20 year horizon - focus on ideas, developments,
people, trends and forces shaping the future
• Clients
– Airports - Aeroports de Paris / Schiphol Group
– Vancouver Airport Services
– Industry Associations – ICCA, ASAE, PCMA,
MPI
– Corporates - GE, Nokia, Pepsi, IBM, Intel,
Orange, O2, Siemens, Samsung, GSK,
SAPE&Y, KPMG, Amadeus, Sabre, Travelport,
Travelex, ING, Santander, Barclays, Citibank,
DeutscheBank
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Singapore, UK, US
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Athens, Slovenia, Copenhagen
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Adelaide, Qatar, QEIICC
– Hotels - Accor Group, Preferred,
– Intercontinental
– PCO’s - Congrex, Kenes

95. Hotels 2020 – Objectives
• Identify key drivers of change
for the globally branded hotel
sector over the next decade
• Examine the implications for:
 Hotel strategy
 Brand portfolio
 Business models
 Customer targeting
 Innovation

96. Convention 2020
• Global strategic foresight study to help the meetings industry prepare for
the decade ahead - Industry-wide sponsors
• Multiple outputs Nov 2009 – December 2011
• Current studies on future strategies for venues and destinations

97. Future Convention Cities Initiative
• Members - Cities aiming to be global leaders in delivery of business events
• Focus - Maximising long term economic benefit of events
• Core Activities - Research, sharing of expertise and best practices
• Engagement Model - Meet four time a year prior to major industry events
• Management - Initiated and co-ordinated by Fast Future

98. Rohit Talwar
• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.
• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic
innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on
5 continents
• Author of Designing Your Future
• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10
Global Future Thinkers
• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic
consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,
technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,
environment, food and government sectors
• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De
Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM,
ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis,
OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell,
Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations
and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai,
Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.
• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email
rohit@fastfuture.com

99. Designing Your Future
Key Trends, Challenges and Choices
• 50 key trends
• 100 emerging trends
• 10 major patterns of change
• Key challenges and choices for
leaders
• Strategic decision making framework
• Scenarios for 2012
• Key futures tools and techniques
• Published August 2008
• Price £49.95 / €54.95/ $69.95
• Email invoice request to
rohit@fastfuture.com

100. Our Services
Bespoke research; Identification &
Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers &
Shocks
Public Speaking, In-
Company Briefings, Accelerated Scenario
Seminars and Planning, Timelining &
Workshops Future Mapping
Personal Futuring for
Leaders and Leadership Expert Consultations &
Teams Futures Think Tanks
Identification of
Design & Facilitation of Opportunities for
Innovation, Incubation Innovation and Strategic
& Venturing
Strategy Creation & Investment
Programmes
Development of
Implementation
Roadmaps

101. Example Projects
• Public and private client research e.g. :
– Airport 2025 - Ongoing
– Development of Market Scenarios, emerging trends and strategies for key clients
– Government and OECD Scenario Projects – e.g. Migration 2030, Future of Narcotics,
Chemical Sector, Family 2030
– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration
– Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of
Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership
– Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020
– The Shape of Jobs to Come – Emerging Science and Technology Sectors and Careers
– Winning in India and China
– The Future of Human Resources
– Exploiting the Future Potential of Social Media in UK Small to Medium Enterprises
– Convention 2020 – the Future of Business Events
– Future Convention Cities Initiative – Maximising Long-term Economic Impact of Events
– One Step Beyond – Future trends and challenges for the events industry
– Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation – Future Hotel Strategies
– The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020
– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia

102. Example Clients

103. Background
Notes

104. Macro
Drivers

105. We need to Prepare for
Alternative Scenarios
8-10% Suspicious Love is in
Minds the Air
GDP
Growth
Dancing in
India 6-7%
the Dark
and
China
Road to
Nowhere
1-2%
Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%
GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan

106. Derivatives –
Market Value vs. Global GDP
800 760
700
700
605
600
US$ Trillion
500
400
300
200
100 69.8
14.2 4.33
0
Richard 2010 est Bank of World GDP US GDP Chinese GDP
Duncan (June International
2008) Settlements
June 2009 est
Source: BIS, 2009 BIS - http://www.roubini.com/financemarkets-
monitor/258502/___swap_tango________a_derivative_regulation_dance__part_1
2010 - http://www.newsmax.com/deBorchgrave/BankforInternationalSettlements-BIS-derivatives-MerrillLynch/2010/05/11/id/358672

107. Public debt in 2020 (% of GDP)
Source: Deutsche Bank Research ‘Public debt in 2020’ March 2010
http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000255134.pdf

108. Economic Power Shifts
The Top 20 in 2025?
GDP US$
Source: IMF WEO 2009, PwC ‘the World in 2050 March 2008 edition

109. Reorientation of Global Markets
• Some 647 million air travelers — more than a quarter of the 2.2 billion passengers
who flew worldwide — took to the skies in Asia in 2009, compared to the 638 million
air travelers in North America, hitherto the traditional leader in global aviation.
• By 2013, an additional 217 million travelers are expected to fly within Asia to push the
region’s aviation market share to about one-third of the world market.
• In the U.S. there are three aircraft seats per year for each of the 300 million people
who live here.
• China’s population of 1.3 billion is served by only 0.3 seats per person and India’s 1.1
billion population has only 0.1 seats available per person.
• When Asians reach the stage of traveling as frequently as people in the U.S., that
alone will triple the size of today’s global aviation industry.
Source: Bay Area Travel Writers ‘Travel Trends: Asia Eclipses America in Aviation Markets — by Lakshman Ratnapala,’ March 2010
http://www.batw.org/news/industry-news/travel-trends_mar-2010/

110. Current Spending Patterns
• Reinforcing the appeal of duty free Top Asia-Pacific Amount US$
duty free spenders
savings, 43 percent of all respondents
said they shopped at a duty free store Korea 358
during their last overseas trip. China 333
• Travelers from Japan (73 percent),
Hong Kong 224
Korea (71 percent) and China (49
percent) were the region’s most Malaysia 195
frequent duty free shoppers while India 180
Korean and Chinese travelers also
Thailand 178
made it to the biggest spender list.
Japan 164
Australia 153
Singapore 153
New Zealand 134
Taiwan 125
Regional Average 212
Source: China Travel Trends, September 2009 http://www.chinatraveltrends.com/2009/09/16/chinese-travellers-top-list-of-duty-free-spenders-in-
asia-pacific/

111. Future Regions of Multiple Stress
Source: Ministry of Defence ‘Strategic Trends Programme, Global Strategic Trends out to 2040,’ February 2010
http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/D70F2CC7-5673-43AE-BA73-
1F887801266C/0/20100202GST_4_Global_Strategic_Trends_Out_to_2040UDCDCStrat_Trends_4.pdf

112. Source: Tourism Futures http://www.tourismfutures.net/insights/demographic

113. Source: Tourism Futures http://www.tourismfutures.net/insights/demographic

114. Source: Ministry of Defence ‘Strategic Trends Programme, Global Strategic Trends out to 2040,’ February 2010
http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/D70F2CC7-5673-43AE-BA73-
1F887801266C/0/20100202GST_4_Global_Strategic_Trends_Out_to_2040UDCDCStrat_Trends_4.pdf

115. Climate Change

116. The Climate Change Challenge
• How fast can CO2 emissions be reduced per unit travel?
• How can we move towards convergence on the most effective way to
reduce aviation climate change impacts?
• How can we best address non-CO2 climate impacts?
• Where are carbon emissions owned?
Source: Henley Centre Headlight Vision ‘Managing the environmental challenges of growth in aviation Draft report of stakeholder
event, Cambridge’ October 2006

117. Travel
Outlook

118. Multi Speed Recovery Leading to
many Types of Tourist
• The global travel and tourism industry will experience a “multi-speed” recovery taking
up to a further four years to fully recover to pre-global downturn levels, reveals a
report launched on June 16th 2010.
• Euromonitor International’s Forecast Update – Recovery In Sight? - reveals the global
travel and tourism industry will experience a “multi-speed” recovery kick started by
the developing economies as high unemployment and debt in developed countries
holds back their growth.
• Global international arrivals will not recover to pre-crisis 2008 levels until 2012, while
incoming tourism receipts will not recover until 2013.
• Furthermore, the hotels sector will not fully recover to 2008 levels until 2014.
• The hotel sector in Australasia, Latin America, and Europe will take the longest to
recover.
• Asia is again driving force behind the hotels recovery, due to the continued expansion
of international and local chains.
Source: World Tourism Directory, June 2010
http://www.worldtourismdirectory.com/news/4325/global-travel-industry-to-experience-multi-speed-
recovery.html

119. Travel in 2023
• A report by KPMG released in April 2008 ranked transport and tourism as the sectors
least well prepared for climate change and among those most commercially exposed
to the physical risks it presents.
• Forum for the Future in its ‘Tourism 2023’ report of October 2009 partnered with
companies like British Airways, Carnival UK, and Advantage Travel Centres to
analyze the impact our ever-growing ecological footprint will have on travel.
• The four scenarios under which we could progress:
– 1) Boom and Burst
– 2) Divided Disquiet
– 3) Price and Privilege
– 4) Carbon Clampdown
Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

120. Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

121. Boom and Burst
• A booming economy and high disposable incomes have fuelled a growth in travel
worldwide. People travel further, more frequently, and at faster speeds than ever
before. There are many new reasons to go abroad as global political stability and
prospering economies have opened up the world to more commerce and visitors.
• Rapid advances in technology have been crucial, such as the breakthrough in algae-
based fuels. Dramatic improvements in efficiencies have allowed the transport sector
just about to keep pace with new regulations and their impacts, such as the steadily
rising global price of carbon.
• Legally binding carbon targets are being met – but many are asking how long this can
continue. Many destinations are suffering from serious overcrowding. Wilderness is
perhaps the scarcest resource as road, rail, sea and air routes have brought mass
tourism to the last corners of the planet.
Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

122. Boom and Burst highlights
• Tourists flock to see the ancient shrines and archaeological treasures of Iraq.
• Massive protests spoil the opening of the Mount Everest Theme Park.
• Tourism puts huge strains on infrastructure in popular destinations like New York,
Paris and London. Visitors are herded between attractions with timed tickets.
• High-tech ‘carbon scrubbers’ installed on the ground ‘clean the air so you can travel’.
• Overcrowding in popular destinations has led to the rise of glamorous ‘campsites’,
‘pop up’ hotels with stackable modules, and floating resorts.
• Fastest growing destinations: the Democratic Republic of Burma, Yemen, Beyond
Botswana Plc (Privatised Special Economic Zone), Somalia, Argentina, Brazil,
Antarctica, Near space voyages, Papua New Guinea, Kazakhstan.
Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

123. Divided Disquiet
• A toxic combination of devastating climate change impacts, violent wars over scarce
resources and social unrest has created an unstable and fearful world. This has
made travelling overseas an unattractive proposition.
• Many destinations were unprepared for the impacts of a changing climate. More
extreme weather events, rising sea levels, increased flooding and frequent droughts
have battered some places, while food shortages and malnutrition, malaria, and
conflict over resources like water and oil have wreaked havoc in others.
• Visitors are highly selective in where and when they travel, cramming into a small
number of destinations where overcrowding compounds the problems.
• A breakthrough in affordable telepresence technology has proved surprisingly popular
with businesses that are keen to cut costs. This resulted in drastically reduced
numbers of certain air routes, closing them to many holidaymakers.
Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

124. Divided Disquiet Highlights
• ‘One flight per year’ policy for major US company encourages executives to cut costs
with telepresence technologies.
• Tour guides with a military background hired as part of a holiday package for extra
protection abroad.
• Rising sea levels force Government of Maldives to step up relocation plans to India.
•
• Latest ‘hot’ holiday craze is massive resorts offering golf and skiing across sand
dunes.
• Eiffel Tower auctioned off to a multinational corporation as part of sponsored heritage
plan.
• Fast growing destinations: Norway, Ireland, Latvia, UK, Greenland Doomsday Park,
Canada, Denmark, France, Sweden, The Estonian Army Base Experience.
Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

125. Price and Privilege
• A dramatically high oil price has made travel punitively expensive. Dwindling supplies
and rising demand from the new economies of Asia have pushed energy prices into a
series of sharp and unpredictable spikes.
• The travel industry worldwide has been badly hit and aviation has shrunk
dramatically. Fleet replacements have been slower than anticipated and the predicted
efficiency gains could not keep pace. There have been mass redundancies across
the travel industry and a period of dramatic consolidation across the world.
• Although a small, elite market continues to fly regularly, the vast majority of people
simply cannot afford the experience. The days of affordable travel are now just a
nostalgic memory.
• People who want to holiday abroad either save up for years and fly overseas or join
the new mass market of overland connections. Pan-European rail, bus and sea
networks offer the most cost-effective means of travel for most people. State-of-the-
art super-hubs provide seamless connections between different parts of the
comfortable and affordable system of overland travel.
Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

126. Price and Privilege Highlights
• Demonstrators take to streets in cities across the world demanding the ‘right to fly’.
• Ukraine positions itself as the ‘Gateway to the East’ with new Kiev bus-rail megahub
plan.
• ‘Absolutely no frills’ airline sector from some non-EU countries offers standing room
only and no cabin crew.
• Banks offer holiday credit schemes allowing family and friends to save together for
the annual trip.
• Fastest growing destinations: Montenegro, France, Lithuania, Portugal, Germany,
Central Europe Lakelands, SailRail breaks to Greece, Morocco, The Tropical Island
Experience (Jersey), Ukraine.
Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

127. Carbon Clampdown
• Governments introduce tradable carbon quotas for all households as part bold plans
to tackle climate change. Individual allowances are seen as the fairest way of
allocating the ‘right to pollute’ equally.
• The public has clamoured for tough action. Environmental impacts are increasingly
felt. Although there has been no great shift in cultural values, support for regulation is
high.
• The economy is more localised, and disposable incomes are low.
• Many holidaymakers are still keen to travel abroad, but perceptions of the purpose
and real costs of travel have changed. Although distance is a key consideration, the
reason for the holiday is crucial: what you are doing is more important than where
you are.
• Ethical travel is a new mass market, and the government encourages this with the
carbon rebate for volunteering whilst abroad.
Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

128. Carbon Clampdown Highlights
• Major travel firm goes bust after massive boycott coordinated by a popular website
over its environmental policy.
• Red Cross Swarm uses social networks to send volunteers to disaster zones faster
than official agency staff.
• Peer-to-peer holidaying allows people to ‘swap lives’ with another family and spend a
year in another part of the world.
• Fastest growing destinations: Cornwall, Ukraine, Sweden, Mozambique Special
Volunteer Zone, Lithuania, Northumbria, Cork, France, Slow Boat Community
(registered to Guyana), Liverpool.
Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

129. What does this mean?
• Fast Company notes that ‘…the
reality of vacationing in 2023 will
probably be a combination of
these scenarios, with high oil
prices, disappearing wilderness,
carbon quotas, and advances in
air travel (i.e. biofuel-powered
planes).’
Source: Fast Company ‘Tourism 2023 Imagines the Future of Vacations,’ October 2009
http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/ariel-schwartz/sustainability/tourism-2023-imagines-future-vacations

130. Predictions
• Charles Goddard, Asia Pacific Editorial Director, Economist Intelligence
Unit, speaking at the ALTM Ultratravel Forum, said that ‘…China, despite
the crisis, and because of economic stimulus packages, had continued to
grow in the last 18 months by between 8% and 9%. This shift would be
even more dramatic if China became more consumption driven as opposed
to export led, and this was beginning to happen.’
• ‘Asia was the growth market ‘par-excellence’ with 50% of global
consumption being centred in the region in the next 4-5 years. An explosion
in travel would be an offshoot of this phenomenon,’ he said.
Source: Travel Daily News ‘Bullish growth for inbound and outbound travel in Asia Pacific and China,’ June 2010
http://www.traveldailynews.com/pages/show_page/37535-Bullish-growth-for-inbound-and-outbound-travel-in-Asia-Pacific-and-China

131. Future of Travel and Tourism
• 1. Keeping it local. If trends in energy, economy, and environment continue, then
traveling long distances for recreation will become more rare. In order for the resort
community to maintain a market, they will need to cater more to a local clientele. This
is captured in the concept of the 10-kilometer hotel, one whose prime customers
come from the local area for a respite.
• 2. Alternative transport. In 2009 a newspaper in Seattle featured a photo of a local
organic farmer delivering his wares via sailboat to the docks in Seattle. He calls it the
no-oil food. In the travel and tourism industry this kind of move will be and is being
mirrored as people seek out non-motorized experiences like biking through France, or
taking trips by sail. Over the longer term, again depending on how energy,
environment, and economic trends play out, it is likely that tourists will seek out
slower, less energy intensive, even zero-fossil fuel energy experiences.
Source: Futurist ‘Future of Travel and Tourism ,’by Glen Hiemstra on 01/07/09
http://www.futurist.com/2009/07/01/future-of-travel-and-tourism/

132. Future of Travel and Tourism
• 3. Destination evolution. This trend is underway, as destination resorts focus on
becoming greener and more sustainable, more local in their attraction, more astute in
their use of information technology for advertising and for management, and more
knowledgeable of market trends via research.
• 4. New whys of travel. It is said that there is graffiti from ancient tourists on the
monuments in Egypt. People have always and will always travel to see new places
and people, even if they have to walk or ride an animal to do so. That is not going to
change. But, one more time depending on how the converging trends play out, we
may see a return to the why of travel being for two primary purposes – to visit family,
and to seek new adventure. Business travel may decline as 3D-net technologies
become robust, and distance travel may decline as economic and environmental
imperatives demand. Local travel may fill the need for reconnecting with yourself and
recharging the batteries. In fact making that a focus of what you offer in the travel and
tourism industry may be one key to the future.
Source: Futurist ‘Future of Travel and Tourism,’ by Glen Hiemstra on 01/07/09
http://www.futurist.com/2009/07/01/future-of-travel-and-tourism/

133. Future
Customers

134. Changing European Ethnicity

136. Preference for Rail over Air
66% - Europe
18% - USA

137. Trends
• Concierge services are set to make a
rise across the mid market travel
sector according to Euromonitor
International, who released their
results for the 2010 global travel
trends at the World Travel Market in
November 2009
• Kuoni are one company set to offer
customers concierge options. Andrea
Mueller, Communications Manager for
Kuoni said; "Today people are
overwhelmed by information on travel
and tourism services and need more
guidance. Concierge services will play
and important role in helping them
make intelligent choices based on their
individual needs".
Source: World Travel Guide, November 2009
http://www.worldtravelguide.net/news/3551/news/Global-travel-trends-2010.html

138. Simple Identity
• The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) plummeted the value of the High Net Worth
population by US $32.8 trillion or 19.5% according to the World Wealth Report (2009)
published by CapGemini and Merrill Lynch, so the rich are less rich.
• Writing in the Harvard Business Review, Paul Flatters and Michael Wilmott argue that
in most developed economies pre GFC, that the precession consumer behaviour was
the product of 15 years of uninterrupted prosperity, driven by growth in real levels of
disposal incomes, low inflation, stable employment and booming property prices.
• As such, new consumer appetites emerged in which the consumer could afford to be
curious about gadgets and technology, in which tourists shelled out for enriching and
fun experiences on exotic locations. Where they could afford several holidays a year
and rent premium experiences such as hiring a Ferrari for the weekend in exotic
locations like Japan.
• The GFC changed that, propelling tourist trends into slowdown, halting or even
reserving the trajectory of growth in world tourism.
Source: Tomorrow’s Tourist ‘Simple Identity,’ 2009
http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php

139. Simple Identity
• So, is this a sample of the future, an era of the pension crisis, scarcity of oil, inflation
and falling levels of disposal income in which tourism expenditure falls year on year?
• If so, what will the future tourist look like? Rather than having a fluid identity it will be
more akin to simplicity.
• During an economic slowdown, tourists tend to travel less, stay nearer home
(increase in domestic tourism) and seek simplicity such
as exploreworldwide.com value based holidays focusing on basic facilities, meeting
locals, lots of free time and cheap in exotic locations throughout the world. This trend
is accelerated in a scenario of falling incomes as a simple and functional product that
will suffice. A simple identity means that offering advice becomes extremely
important, whether its website's farecast.com’s ,which advises travellers of the
optimal time to purchase an airline ticket or price comparison technologies which are
found on many online booking services.
Source: Tomorrow’s Tourist ‘Simple Identity,’ 2009
http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php

140. Simple Identity
• Research by the Trajectory Group highlights that affluent consumers have revealed
mounting dissatisfaction with excessive consumption. Many desire a wholesome and
less wasteful life. As such, there is a desire to get back to nature, something that is
tranquil, basic, rooted, human and simple (Yeoman 2008). As a consequence, the
desire for more authentic and simple luxury experiences accelerates. An example of
simple luxury, are tree house hotels which offer a unique experience in a natural
setting. A new experience which is not seen as conspicuous consumption, but overtly
inconspicuous.
• In a simple identity, ethical consumption declines as paying a premium for a
Starbucks coffee falls by the wayside, even if they use organic coffee which supports
children in a third world country. From a tourism perspective, many of the ethical
tourism projects in third world countries such as Africa and India which depend on
independent travellers will suffer.
Source: Tomorrow’s Tourist ‘Simple Identity,’ 2009
http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php

141. Simple Identity
• Tourists also have become canny at searching for bargains which economists call
mercurial consumption, whether it is using price comparison software, or grabbing
last minute offers from websites such as grabaseat.co.nz which offer last minute air
travel deals to New Zealand consumers, or 5pm.co.uk which offers diners the chance
of discounted meals after 5pm that evening. Technology and social media network
enabling purchasing strategies, further accelerate this trend of mercurial
consumption.
• Attitudes to travel also change, as tourism has to compete with other forms of leisure
expenditure, whether it is the latest technology gadgets or virtual holidays. There is a
generation of Japan youth who prefer their X-Box than climbing Mt Fuji. The desire
for new experiences is more about insperience, where technology provides a better
experience than in which consumers desire to bring top level experiences into their
domestic domain.
• A simple identity is all about simplicity seeking, thrift, green yet mercurial tourists will
hold tourism business and brands accountable. In a world of scarcity of resources
this scenario becomes the norm.
Source: Tomorrow’s Tourist ‘Simple Identity,’ 2009
http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php

142. Market Pain Points

143. Market Pain Points
• Research on passenger dissatisfaction reflects the obvious issues that
make air travel difficult. Three main areas represent the majority of
passenger complaints: service disruptions, long check-in lines and baggage
issues. Through the adoption of new communication techniques and
internal systems that take advantage of advanced technology and shared
information, airlines and airports can improve their delivery of services
focusing on these three primary passenger pain points.
• Airlines and airports are challenged with updating their operational systems
to eliminate unnecessary manual step whilst interconnecting existing
information silos to better manage the entire passenger experience.
Integration between Departure Control Systems (DCS), Passenger Service
Systems (PSS), Baggage Reconciliation Systems (BRS), and airport
services can provide improved passenger processing. Delivering services
on advanced mobile devices will help all entities be more efficient and
operate with lower costs.
Source: Amadeus, 2011 http://www.amadeus.com/airlineIT/navigating-the-airport-of-tomorrow/docs/Amadeus-Navigating-the-Airport-Of-Tomorrow-
2011-EN.pdf

144. Market Pain Points

145. What Passengers Want
• As a result of social media-inspired discussion, and with the assistance of
London City Airport’s sales director, Bernard A. Lavelle, Future Travel
Experience reveals the views of passengers themselves on what they really
want from the airport of the future.
• As outlined in the chart, the aspect that can most improve the passenger
experience on the ground is high-quality signage, communications and staff,
with almost a third of all respondents highlighting this as a vital passenger
requirement.
• The second most common request was free Wi-Fi in the terminal building,
while improved facilities, processing and queues, and an enhanced security
process are also prominent on the passenger wish list. Airport layout was
also identified as an area that can make a telling difference to the overall
passenger experience.
Source: Future Travel Experience, May 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/05/what-do-passengers-really-want/

146. What Passengers Want
Source: Future Travel Experience , May 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/05/what-do-passengers-really-want/

147. Emerging
Customers

148. Tracking the rise of the middle class across the BRICs and N-11:
Share of population with incomes between $6,000 and $30,000 in
PPP terms (Goldman Sachs)
2009 (%) 2015 (%) 2025 (%) 2040 (%)
Brazil 46 52 59 57
Russia 71 71 56 29
India 6 16 46 89
China 37 59 75 53
Korea 67 46 23 7
Bangladesh 0 1 5 38
Egypt 39 57 84 82
Indonesia 16 29 57 87
Iran 70 77 73 41
Mexico 61 65 65 49
Nigeria 6 9 18 42
Pakistan 9 13 22 49
Philippines 15 23 40 69
Turkey 79 81 70 35
Vietnam 7 21 51 84
Source: Goldman Sachs, August 2009 http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/demographic-change/power-of-purse-doc.pdf

149. Primed for More Travel
Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2010-2029, December 2010
http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/brochures_publications/Global_Market_Forecast/Airbus_Global_Market_Forecast_-_2010-
2029.pdf

150. Source: Airbus 2009 http://www.airbus.com/en/gmf2009/appli.htm?onglet=&page=

151. Online Bookings in Asia-Pacific,
2008 and 2011
2008 2011
Australia / New Zealand $6.2B $10.9B
China $6.9B $13B
India $3.1B $5.5B
Japan $11.5B $17.7B
Source: PhoCusWright
Source: PhocusWright cited by Travel Weekly ‘China, India will lead region's online bookings boom’ January 2010
http://www.travelweekly.com/article3_ektid209470.aspx

152. China Consumer Report
• By the year 2020, China will have a population of more than 1.4 billion people that will
make up a significant portion in the world's consumer market.
• The annual disposable income of Chinese consumers is forecasted to increase to
65.4 billion Yuan (US$9.57 billion) by 2020 compared with 15 billion Yuan (US$2.19)
in 2008.
• The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that the country would be
considered a moderately affluent society by 2020, if development trends since the
year 2000 continue. The estimate was made taking into account progress in the fields
of the economy, social harmony, quality of life, democracy and law enforcement,
culture and education, as well as resources and the environment.
• Zheng Xinli, Vice-Minister of the Communist Party's central policy research office,
said that taking price changes into account, 55% of the population will be middle
class by 2020, with 78% of city dwellers and 30% of those in rural areas reaching that
status.
• Middle class is currently defined as having an annual household income of between
RMB60,000 (US$8,700) and RMB200,000 (US$29,215). In 2008 prices, the annual
disposable income per household will be RMB98,956 (US$14,900) in 2020.
Source: Euromonitor 2009 http://www.euromonitor.com/Chinese_consumers_in_2020_A_look_into_the_future

153. China and India Entering Era of
Travel
• Dun Jidong, spokesman for the China Travel Service notes that GDP per capita has
hit $3,000 in China, ‘…a level that industry experts agree sends a signal that the
country is entering a stage of explosive growth in travel consumption.’ (1)
Share of population with incomes between $6,000 and $30,000 (PPP terms) (2)
2009 (%) 2015 (%) 2025 (%) 2040 (%)
Brazil 46 52 59 57
Russia 71 71 56 29
India 6 16 46 89
China 37 59 75 53
Source: (1) China Daily January 2010 http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-01/15/content_9323567.htm
Source (2): Goldman Sachs, August 2009 http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/demographic-change/power-of-purse-doc.pdf

154. Source: Goldman Sachs ‘Is this the ‘BRICs Decade’?’ May 2010
http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/brics-decade-doc.pdf

155. Aviation
Industry
Outlook

156. International Passengers in 2014
Source: IATA 2010, Markets in 2014
http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/Documents/Example%20-%20Projected%20Top%2010%20International%20Markets%20in%202014.pdf

157. Freight in 2014
Source: IATA 2010, Markets in 2014
http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/Documents/Example%20-%20Projected%20Top%2010%20International%20Markets%20in%202014.pdf

158. Aviation in 2029
Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2010-2029, December 2010
http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/brochures_publications/Global_Market_Forecast/Airbus_Global_Market_Forecast_-_2010-
2029.pdf

159. Future Demand
• Passenger air traffic is forecast to double by 2030 as 12 billion of us take to
the skies. So what will the massive airports of the future look like?
• One theory being discussed is that the future city will be an “aerotropolis”,
with the airport at its heart rather than stationed far away from the centre –
important if the city is to connect effectively to the global economy. In much
of the western world, airports were developed years ago, when air travel
was a luxury form of transport for the privileged. Now, of course, it’s a mode
of mass traffic, requiring different capacity solutions.
• Songdo, South Korea, is an example of a city built from scratch at a cost of
$40 billion with an airport in the centre.
• Dubai is rapidly expanding its airport for A380 traffic, where first-class
passengers on the building’s upper level will be able to transfer direct to the
upper level of the A380 aircraft.
Source: TTG Nordic, 2011 http://www.ttgnordic.com/news/item/429-a-look-at-the-super-airports-of-the-future

160. Future Demand
• Nearby in Dubai, another gigantic airport, Al-Maktoum International, will
eventually have five runways and enough capacity to make it double the
size of the biggest airport around today. The first runway is already
operational for cargo and passengers will be able to fly there by the end of
2011.
• But developers are wary of building a future airport that is too big, creating
long distances for passengers to walk between flights and concerns over
the logistics and security of having large numbers of people crammed
together. The key to this is to arrange connecting transport links such as
trains or cars to be as close as possible to the plane.
• In the Middle East there seems to be an airport capacity race. In Europe, it’s
the contrary; it is extremely difficult for many airports to develop enough
capacity to handle the forthcoming explosion in air travel. Projects like Berlin
Brandenburg Airport, due to open in 2012, are few and far between. China,
by contrast, plans to build 78 new airports by 2020. In Europe, there are
plans for five new airports by 2030.
Source: TTG Nordic, 2011 http://www.ttgnordic.com/news/item/429-a-look-at-the-super-airports-of-the-future

161. IATA Launches Vision 2050
• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) called on industry leaders
to look beyond the crisis that buffeted the air transport industry over the last
decade and to strategically define a sustainable future.
• Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO, outlined his vision for
aviation in 2050. “We will be very near to zero accidents. We will emit half
the carbon. We will have eliminated queues with integrated systems
ensuring security as we process more passengers. We will operate with
almost no delays in globally united skies. We will share costs and profits
equitably across the value chain. We will be a consolidated industry of a
dozen global brands supported by regional and niche players. And we will
deliver value to investors.”
Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx

162. IATA Launches Vision 2050
• “In just over a decade, I can see $100 billion in industry profits on revenues
of $1 trillion. As we move towards 2050, this 10% margin will become even
more robust. This is not just a crazy dream. Before the recession, at least a
dozen IATA members already had 10% margins. We must make this a
much broader reality. Change in all areas is possible. This vision—including
sustainable profitability—can be our future,” said Bisignani.
• Bisignani’s vision for 2050 rests on four cornerstones of change:
– Profitability
– Infrastructure
– Powering the industry
– Customer
Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx

163. IATA Launches Vision 2050
• Profitability: “Efficiency gains never make it to the bottom line because
airlines are deprived of the commercial freedom to operate their businesses
like a normal business. Our poor profitability makes every shock a fight for
survival,” said Bisignani. He laid the blame on the industry’s hyper
fragmentation with 1061 airlines as a result of the bilateral system which
regulates the global aviation industry. The restrictions on international
capital prevent consolidation across borders. “The restrictions of the
bilateral system are a dam that holds us back. It is time for that dam to
burst. Governments must act responsibly to ensure safety, security, and a
level playing field. And airlines need the freedom to build efficiencies across
borders, better serve their customers, and achieve sustainable profits to
fund growth and innovation,” said Bisignani.
Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx

164. IATA Launches Vision 2050
• Infrastructure: “Infrastructure must be reshaped around the needs of
airlines—the core of the industry’s value chain. Airports should compete for
airline business based on efficiency. Commercial revenues will drive their
business. I can see airports paying airlines to bring shoppers and airport
revenues funding the air traffic management system,” said Bisignani.
• Air traffic management must also change. “I can see ten global air
navigation service providers (ANSPs) replacing the current 180 at half the
cost,” said Bisignani. The Single European Sky (SES) would be the first of
the ten global ANSPs. “But we need real leadership to replace the
uncoordinated bureaucratic mess that Europe is today,” said Bisignani,
pleading for a date to achieve the $6.5 billion (EUR 5 billion) cost savings
that the SES promises. “After 20 years of waiting, we are fed up. Heads of
governments must set a date and deliver,” said Bisignani.
Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx

165. IATA Launches Vision 2050
• Powering the Industry: “Today’s jet fuel cannot sustain air transport in the
long-term. We must find a sustainable alternative and our most promising
opportunity is bio fuels, which have the potential to reduce our carbon
footprint by up to 80%,” said Bisignani. After successful testing by airlines,
certification is expected within a year. Bisignani urged greater support from
governments. “Too often governments are only committed to environment
when it means grabbing cash. Governments should be investing in biofuels
and green technologies. Local production with jatropha, camelina, algae, or
even urban waste will open up economic opportunities in virtually any
location. Not only will this secure a future power source for our industry, this
will also break the tyranny of oil and drive economic development in all parts
of the world.
Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx

166. IATA Launches Vision 2050
• The Customer: “The customer is at the center of our future vision. By
2050, we will have 16 billion travelers and handle 400 million tonnes of
cargo. In just a couple of decades, we will see the middle class nearly triple
from the 1.3 billion today to 3.5 billion people—a quarter of which will be in
India and China. Accommodating that growth efficiently will be a challenge
for all parts of the value chain—airports, air navigation service providers,
manufacturers and governments. The solution must be strategic and
aligned,” said Bisignani.
• Bisignani noted that the air transport industry must engage its 2.4 billion
passengers to change government’s “over-regulate and under-appreciate”
attitude. “To turn our customers into industry activists, we must improve the
value proposition of price, speed, and quality. We have reduced the price of
flying by 40% since deregulation. But as we made travel more accessible,
speed and quality suffered. The infrastructure has not kept pace, resulting in
delays both in the air and on the ground. New security procedures created
new hassles. Our challenge is to gain the support of customers in
demanding change from the governments,” said Bisignani.
Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx

167. EUROCONTROL: Long Term
Forecast
• Future air traffic will be limited by capacity at the airports, 0.7-5.0 million
flights will not be accommodated in 2030, 5%-19% of the demand. The
congestion is now lower than in the forecast two years ago. The recent drop
in traffic has given the system some extra years to react and adapt but once
the limits are reached the number of unaccommodated flights increases
quickly. Congested airports create pressure on the flow of operations in the
network and will exacerbate delays.
• Even with airport capacity restrictions airports will grow. In 2030, there will
be 13-34 airports as big as the top 7 are now. Some of the faster growing
East-European airports will join the top 25. European hubs will be faced with
competition from hubs outside Europe, primarily in the Middle-East.
Source: EuroControl, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf

168. EUROCONTROL: Long Term
Forecast
Source: Eurocontrol, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf

169. EUROCONTROL: Long Term
Forecast
Source: EuroControl, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf

170. Source: EuroControl, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf

171. Visions of
Tomorrow’s
Airport

172. Exploring the Airport of 2030
• The importance of generating non-aeronautical revenue streams has also
had a major impact on the recent developments in the aviation sector, and
Alan Lamond, aviation director, Pascall + Watson Architects, explained that
this will continue to impact on future airport models. He said: “We are
seeing increased commercialisation of airports and a realisation that you
have to exploit the opportunities presented, and this is done in Western
airports through very intensive retailing. What is increasingly becoming clear
is that, for businesses, there’s a distinct commercial advantage in being
based near an international airport. This means that the space around the
airport becomes far more valuable.”
Source: Airport Business, July 2010 http://www.airport-business.com/2010/07/exploring-the-airport-of-2030/

174. Siemens Airport Lab
• Inside Siemens airy, 90,000-square-foot glass and steel structure in
Germany is an entire infrastructure of an airport, minus only the planes,
runways and control tower.
• Nearly every aspect of airport operations is tested and developed here, from
high-tech baggage handling and fleet-management systems to wireless
passenger check-in and 3-D security.
• The airport center, built in 2005, houses real-time, check-in counters, a
parking guidance system, a control center and a luggage conveyor with belt
and tray conveyors stretching more than 6,000 feet. The baggage system
can handle 30 million pieces of luggage per year. (In Germany, only Munich
and Frankfurt airports have larger systems.)
• On the passenger side of the terminal, a prototype system is being fine-
tuned that would allow travelers to check in using only their mobile phones.
Once a passenger makes a phone call to check in, the system then sends
back a bar code that displays on the mobile phones screen. Special readers
at the airport then scan and print out boarding passes.
Source: ABC News, May 2010 http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/siemens-dreams-airport-future-germany/story?id=10629236

175. Siemens Airport Lab
• Also being tested in the lab are new fingerprint and facial-recognition
systems as Siemens targets the ever-expanding need for better security at
airports everywhere.
• Iris scans, fingerprint-based IDs and 3-D face digitization are all being
tested here as part of the company's development of cutting-edge
recognition and security systems.
• One area developed by Siemens that is already being employed at airports
from Seoul to Denver is a baggage system that employs radio-frequency
identification or RFID technology.
• The RFID tags are applied directly to baggage and are a much more
efficient way of identification and tracking luggage using radio waves.
• More than 3.1 million missing baggage reports were filed in the United
States alone in 2009, according to the Air Travel Consumer Report
produced by the U.S. Department of Transportation.
Source: ABC News, May 2010 http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/siemens-dreams-airport-future-germany/story?id=10629236

176. Siemens Airport Lab
• Siemens says the radio wave technology will eventually replace bar-code
tracking systems now employed at many airports because it allows bags to
be instantly updated with changes to a passengers flight or security status.
That should drastically lower the risk of the dreaded lost luggage nightmare.
• From check-in to loading on an aircraft it allows more useful data to travel
along with the bag.
• Airport systems make up about 2 percent of the company's $100.7 billion
annual revenue. But that number is expected to rise as the need for better
airport technology surges along with the number of air travelers.
Source: ABC News, May 2010 http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/siemens-dreams-airport-future-germany/story?id=10629236

177. Visions of the Future
• EADS Innovation Works (IW), the corporate network of research centres of
EADS, and Altran, an international advanced engineering and innovation
consulting group, are jointly working on projects supporting the long-term
evolution of the air transport industry.
• The goal of a recent study was to create revolutionary airport concepts.
EADS IW and Altran organised workshops with representatives of airlines,
airports, air traffic management and aircraft manufacturers as well as
representatives of other transport sectors.
• It was recognised that, for short and medium flights, future passengers'
experience will play a significant role in the competition between aviation
and high-speed rail transport.
• This research contributes to the goals set forth in the European
Commission's report 'Flightpath 2050 - Europe's Vision for Aviation', whose
target is for 90% of travellers in Europe to be able to complete their journey,
door to door, within four hours.
Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675

178. Visions of the Future
• Intermodal transfers will be seamless and final destinations are to be reached
smoothly, predictably and on time while accommodating the increasing
demand for air travel. 'These concepts put passengers at the heart of the air
transport system. The result is a passenger-friendly experience and lean
processes which we have labeled 'Friend- Lean Airport of the Future',' said
Guy Gallic, head of the Technical Capability Centre 'Innovative Concepts and
Scenarios' at EADS IW. 'In future, we will speak not only about infrastructure
but about an 'extended door-to door experience'.
• The airport terminal will become a lean step in the journey towards co-modal
and connected travel,' explained Sebastien Renouard, Executive Director
AeroSpace & Defence International at Altran.
• On an average day in 2010, 6.5 million passengers flew an average of
2,000km on one of 14,000 commercial jets.
• By 2050, the number of passengers per day will increase to roughly 44 million
globally. Beyond 2040, the study aimed to find revolutionary airport concepts
capable of handling 25-100 million passengers per year.
Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675

179. Eye to the Sky

180. Visions of the Future
• The following three concept from EADSs were selected and elaborated in
more detail.
• The 'Eye to the Sky' concept.
• The aircraft traffic area is located above the terminals, while the flow of
passengers through the terminals to their planes is vertical. From arriving at
the airport to reaching their seats on the plane, passengers use spiral
ramps that link every level of the airport. This concept focuses not only on
infrastructural design but also on solutions for guiding passengers through
an augmented reality information system. A mobile device would connect to
the airport network and act as a portable personal guide to help people find
their way at the airport. Lean security systems based on new technologies
would also be embedded.
Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675

181. Visions of the Future
• The 'Passenger Airport Shuttles (PAS)' concept.
• With a predicted time of at most seven minutes to get from anywhere in the
airport to any Skygate, passengers can choose to spend more time at the
airport's central terminal facilities or they can arrive at the airport less than
10 minutes before departure and still catch their flight.
• In this decentralised approach, passengers are moved in Passenger Airport
Shuttle vehicles which are guided by an automated central airport control
system. An identification function ensures that passengers and their travel
data are recognised by the control system as soon as they board, and the
vehicle then offers them a transportation and information service dedicated
to their specific needs. Aircraft will be docked to a 'Skygate', a minimal
building that forms the interface between the aircraft and the PAS. Baggage
will be handled at the Skygate, reducing the baggage deposition and
retrieval times to a minimum.
Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675

182. Visions of the Future
• The 'Extended Airport' concept
• The Extended Airport concept addresses the vision of providing a door-to-
door travel service in the literal sense by extending the transportation
service so that passengers (or just their luggage) are picked up at their
home or office. In this vision, air transport and airports are fully integrated
with other transport modes. The proper competition and collaboration
between modes of transport are ensured by a transport planner on the user
interface where passengers can plan their trips. It will take many revolutions
in the air transport sector to create solutions that deliver on the ambitious
objectives set forth by the European Commission's FlightPath 2050.
Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675

183. User Friendly Terminals
• Munich Airport’s new InfoGates allow passengers to obtain quick and
detailed information to help them navigate around the terminal.
• Passengers using the InfoGate can simply push a button, which connects
them immediately to an information service representative via
videoconference.
• Six InfoGates are already operational in the public and non-public areas of
the airport, and 17 Interactive InfoGates are positioned at key crossroads
throughout the terminals.
• These consist of touch-screens mounted on pillars, offering a full range of
information on services, shopping and dining at the airport.
Source: Future Travel Experience, June 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/06/munich-airports-infogates-offer-improved-
wayfinding/

184. Future of Airports
• David Holm, Principal Architect, Woodhead, explained that retail,
commercial, advertising and other forms of revenue generation will be
crucial within the development of terminals of the future. Not only do these
forms of commerce provide funding incomes, they also play a key role in
crafting the unique character of the place and in enhancing the “total
journey experience”. “It is our design view that retail and commercial
developments and strategies must be incorporated at the earliest phases of
project planning. In this way, the form of a new project is designed from the
inside out in harmony with the outside in pressure applied by the equally
crucial requirements of exterior aircraft planning,” he said.
• At the Check-In 2010 Conference in Las Vegas, Holm referred to four key
themes:
Source: Future Travel Experience, March 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/03/the-airport-of-the-future-2020-
thinking/

185. Future of Airports
• Urban Catalyst – “Innovative civic and transport leaders are now seeing
airports and their surrounding and supporting infrastructure, often referred
to as airport cities, as the catalysts of urban growth and often regeneration;
a key part of the ‘c21st polycity concept’.”
• Civic Buildings – “The contemporary airport within the ‘c21st polycity’ is
today’s crossroads celebrating trade and community gathering. As such the
urban structure and the built forms of the airport must stand as civic
buildings respected by the community and designed with a sense of
community, flexibility and longevity.”
Source: Future Travel Experience, March 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/03/the-airport-of-the-future-2020-
thinking/

186. Future of Airports
• Sense of Place – “Our design projects endeavour to make the subtle
connection between context, place making and built form in order to weave
our built form into the community within which it exists.”
• Total Journey Experience – “The transport node, whether it be a domestic
or international airport or multi-modal station, has existed as an evolutionary
control at the edges of regions or borders. As such the node has performed
a variety of functions, ranging from service industries to authority
procedures. This variety of stakeholders has many functions to address,
though all conjoined represent the overall brand and experience of the
transport node.”
• It appears clear that a consistent approach towards design provides the
passenger with a coherent total journey experience throughout their
incoming and outgoing experiences as a traveller.
Source: Future Travel Experience, March 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/03/the-airport-of-the-future-2020-
thinking/

187. Exploring the Airport of 2030
• The impact of a master plan, which often outlines a blueprint for the airport
with a vision for the next two decades or more, is the most integral part of
the planning process and can often provide an idea of how airports will
continue to develop in the mid-to-long-term.
• Curtis Fentress, principal-in-charge of design, Fentress Architects, said:
“With master plans you almost need a crystal ball. You have to design for
flexibility, which can accommodate for future needs even though you don’t
know what these will be. Flexibility really is key and I think that because of
this, you will see more airports with column-free buildings. At LAX we’ve
designed large, column-free buildings so that we’re completely flexible for
any future developments. This is even something that you can see in the
design of Denver International Airport, which has just celebrated its 15th
birthday.”
Source: Airport Business, July 2010 http://www.airport-business.com/2010/07/exploring-the-airport-of-2030/

188. The Intelligent Networked Airport
• A passenger-sensing, self-organising unified network to track the location of every
passenger and bag in the terminal will feature in future airports.
• It’s not much fun sitting in an airport waiting for a plane. But might it be less of a
chore if you could download your in-flight films in the departure lounge? Might you
even pay for the service? If you find that airport bars usually serve the best antidotes
to tedium, would you be glad to know that a nearby display can detect your presence,
prompt you when your gate number changes and provide clear directions to it at
drinking-up-and-boarding time?
• It’s being developed by scientists from the University of Cambridge, University
College London, and the University of Leeds. The idea is to tidy up the tangle of wired
and wireless networks used in most modern airports by installing a single
infrastructure that can handle GSM, 3G, Wi-Fi and RFID communications, as well as
locating every person and piece of baggage in the building.
Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html

189. The Intelligent Networked Airport
• TINA - The intelligent networked airport
• “For instance, can we solve problems like bags being in one place but the passenger
not showing up, or a passenger being on an airplane and not knowing where their
bags are?” asks Jon Crowcroft, Marconi professor of communications systems at the
Cambridge University Computer Laboratory.
• Organising a building’s network infrastructure in this way could also create
opportunities for airport operators to generate money.
• “In an airport environment, where in-building communications systems [such as Wi-
Fi] are often used to generate revenue for the airport operator, the adoption of such a
technology could lead to some interesting innovation with regard to the commercial
models under which airports operate,” says Justin Trevan, a consultant at the
communications division of Arup - an engineering consultancy well known for its work
on airports, including Heathrow’s Terminal 5 and Dubai International Airport.
Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html

190. The Intelligent Networked Airport
• To track people and assets, researchers are looking at both active and passive RFID
tags, locating the active tags by comparing the different time delays of the transmitted
signals as they arrive at neighbouring antenna units, which are typically positioned
tens of metres apart.
• Being battery-powered and expensive, active RFID tags would only be suitable where
they could be re-used and recharged, such as when issued to members of staff or
applied to airport vehicles. In contrast, passive RFID tags could be printed cheaply on
disposable paper boarding cards or luggage labels, given to every passenger and
attached to each of their bags. In Hong Kong airport, luggage is already labelled with
bar-coded passive RFID tags that are read (by conventional short-range means) with
two antennas placed either side of the luggage conveyer belt.
Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-
t.html

191. The Intelligent Networked Airport
• Zinwave application
• A ‘long-range’ passive RFID sensing scheme is novel and technically difficult.
• However, Sithamparanathan Sabesan, Michael Crisp, Richard Penty and Ian White at
the University of Cambridge’s department of engineering, have found a way to reduce
the fading and improve the accuracy of RSSI techniques, using an optimised Zinwave
radio-over-fibre hub with multiple antennas.
• “The first challenge was getting the range up to 20m. The second, which we’re still
working on, is the resolution at that range. We’ve got the location accuracy down to
around 2m, but we’d like to do better,” said Professor White, head of photonics
research in the electrical division of the department of engineering at Cambridge.
• Tracking every single passenger anywhere in the building all the time may not be
feasible with passive RFID tags. But the technology could indicate if a passenger has
moved from one space to another, maybe from a lounge to a bar, which is enough to
target a message to a nearby display, page them, or send someone to find them.
Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-
t.html

192. The Intelligent Networked Airport
• Network architecture specifications
• The basic TINA network architecture is being designed to support a terminal with
typically 1,000 fixed and 500 mobile video cameras (demanding 10Gbit/s of
bandwidth); 500 displays (10Gbit/s); 500 biometric scanners (10Gbit/s); private and
public fixed and wireless LAN (20Gbit/s); cellular services (10Gbit/s); TETRA and
private radio (500Mbit/s); as well as passive RFID (300Gbit/s) and active RFID
(5Gbit/s). These figures, which include projections for future demand, are based on
input from BAA and other companies involved with the network installations in
Heathrow Terminals 4 and 5.
• The software tool can model and simulate passenger flow, radio propagation delays,
optimum antenna position, and bandwidth requirements to give a top-down picture of
how the network might perform under various circumstances.
• In this way, designers can better understand how the flow of people in indoor spaces,
traffic demands and energy consumption constraints might influence different
architectures.
Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html

193. TINA – Key Facts
The network will support:
• 1,000 Fixed and 500 Mobile Video Cameras - 10 Gb/s
• 500 Displays - 10 Gb/s
• 500 Biometric Scanners - 10 Gb/s
• Private and Public Fixed and Wireless LAN - 20 Gb/s
• Cellular services - 10 Gb/s
• TETRA and private radio - 0.5 Gb/s
• Passive RFID - 0.2 Gb/s
• Active locatable RFID - 5 Gb/s
• Aggregate Mean Rate 65.7 Gb/s; assumed Aggregate Peak
Rate 100 Gb/s

194. Flexible Terminals

195. Flexible Terminals
• An Austrian company, TMT, has installed a mobile passenger terminal
at Switzerland’s Geneva Airport. It is designed as a flexible structure, to
expand and contract airport capacity, depending on demand. With a
growing number of companies providing such facilities – driven by the
increasing seasonality of flight operations and the continuing lack of
available finance – is the future going to be "temporary and mobile"? Could
this be the ultimate low-cost terminal?
• TMT’s management stated the terminal can be installed and dismantled
within a week.
Source: Centre for Aviation, February 2011
http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2011/02/14/upwardly-mobile--airport-terminals-that-match-the-seasonal-nature-of-the-airline-
business/page1

196. Flexible Terminals
• Thomas Melcher, managing director and inventor of TMT The Mobile
Terminal - Melcher has ambitious plans for TMT The Mobile Terminal,
particularly in emerging markets in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America.
“In the next three years, we are targeting 20 to 25 mobile terminals
worldwide,” he said.
• Indeed, the effectiveness of the terminal solution during major events in an
airport’s catchment area means discussions are already underway with the
Russian market with regards to the 2014 Winter Olympics, which take place
in Sochi, and the 2012 European Football Championships in Poland and
Ukraine. TMT The Mobile Terminal is also exploring the possibility of renting
its terminal solutions for short-term periods.
Source: Airport Business, April 2011 http://www.airport-business.com/2011/04/first-tmt-the-mobile-terminal-opened-at-geneva-
airport/

197. The ‘Airport City’
• This geographical advantage has led to the rapid rise of the ‘airport city’
and, according to Curtis Fentress, principal-in-charge of design, Fentress
Architects, this is likely to become an increasing trend in years to come.
• “I think you will see more of the ‘airport city’,” he explained. “In the Middle
East, you see a tremendous surge in passenger numbers and there is then
a need for hotels and other services and this is something that we may see
elsewhere in the next 20 years. Airports will become more multi-modal and
the construction of office buildings, conference buildings, air freight facilities,
and even the likes of beauty salons within the actual airport are things that
are already becoming more widespread.”
• With environmental sustainability now firmly established toward the very top
of the list of priorities within the field of airport architecture, the need to
explore the use of ‘green’ energy is more evident than ever before.
Source: Airport Business, July 2010 http://www.airport-business.com/2010/07/exploring-the-airport-of-2030/

198. Airport Cities: Manchester

199. Airport Cities: Manchester
• More than 10,000 jobs could be created around Manchester Airport when it
is turned into a ‘mini city’.
• The £400m Airport City project was given the green light after the
government named it as one of its first Enterprise Zones.
• It is one of 21 designated areas nationwide that will offer tax breaks for
businesses, simplified planning rules and super-fast broadband as part of
plans to grow local economies and jobs by removing barriers for new
companies.
• Money raised from discounted business rates in the area will be available to
re-invest in Greater Manchester’s redevelopment.
• Airport bosses say the Enterprise Zone status means they can start
immediately on Airport City, which is expected to bring 10,500 full time jobs
– 13,000 in total – over the next 10 to 15 years. A 60-acre site, centred
around Manchester Business Park to the north of the airport, will introduce
new offices, hotels, shops and manufacturing space.
Source: Manchester Evening News, March 2011 http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1416306_manchester-airport-
enterprise-zone-will-generate-mini-city-with-10500-jobs

200. Airlines and
Aircraft
Futures

201. Impact of Consolidation

202. Impact of Consolidation
• The airline industry continues its consolidation trend: in
Europe things started with the Air France-KLM merger in
2004, soon followed by Lufthansa-Swiss.
• The action continues with SN Brussels, BMI and Austrian
taken over by Lufthansa, Air France-KLM buying a
significant stake in Alitalia and getting full control of the
Dutch leisure and cargo airline Martinair and FlyVLM.
• British Airways and Iberia have completed a merger.
• Airlines are likely to continue consolidating aligning their
products for their passengers: pricing, loyalty programs,
joint check-in areas.

203. Shifting the Goalposts

204. Shifting the Goalposts
• Booz suggests ,that ‘…airlines must take an objective, data-driven look at
their business models and cost structures, challenge existing assumptions,
and provide CEOs and program managers with the analysis they need to
take decisive, innovative, and informed action.
• One measurement whose validity should be actively questioned is the
ubiquitous metric of the airline industry, cost per available seat mile
(CASM). Although it is an interesting data point, CASM is not the most
relevant gauge for determining the success of an airline’s business model
because it focuses solely on the cost of supply and not on demand. We
believe that a better metric would be cost per passenger seat mile, which
would calculate the expense of operating the seats that travelers are
actually willing to purchase.
Source: Booz & Co, 2008
http://www.booz.com/media/uploads/Future_of_Green_Aviation.pdf