Considerando o fato de o Brasil, como organização econômica, social e política, se encontrar em desintegração cujos sinais são evidentes em todas as partes do País e que a estagnação econômica atual tende a se agravar no Brasil com a elevação do desemprego e a redução das receitas do Estado que poderão inviabilizar sua capacidade de intervenção na economia, a eleição de um Presidente da República que não seja capaz de superar a crise atual e reativar a economia brasileira pode levar o País à convulsão social. Para evitar este cenário, é necessário eleger um Presidente da República que aumente a capacidade do governo brasileiro e das instituições políticas em geral de oferecer respostas eficazes para superação da crise política, econômica e social em que se debate a nação brasileira.

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ANALYSIS OF THE MOST VIABLE CANDIDATES TO THE PRESIDENCY
OF THE REPUBLIC OF BRAZIL
Fernando Alcoforado*
Brazil has 5 candidates for the Presidency of the Republic who are more likely to vote
in the presidential elections. They are Jair Bolsonaro, Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes,
Geraldo Alckmin and the PT candidate who will take the place of Lula. The analysis of
these candidates shows that, ideologically, Bolsonaro and Alckmin are right-wing and
Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes and the PT candidate are left-wing. Left and Right are a
common way of classifying political, ideological, or political parties. Bobbio states that
a fundamental difference between left and right is that the former is an uncompromising
advocate of equality and the right is not. The left believes that most of the inequalities
are social and, as such, eliminable and the right thinks that most of them are natural and
therefore ineliminable [BOBBIO, Norberto. Direita e esquerda (Left and Right). São
Paulo: Editora UNESP, 1995].
Another difference between the left and right in Brazil is that the left defends the
intervention of the State in the economy with development plans and the right advocates
the non-intervention of the government in the market, the left is against the neoliberal
policy of liberalization of the market and privatization of state-owned enterprises, while
the right wing defends the contrary. Another difference between left and right in Brazil
is that the left is reformist in advocating political, economic and social reforms
favorable to the majority of the population, while the right is conservative in defending
the maintenance of the privileges of the ruling classes. Another difference between left
and right in Brazil is that the left is an uncompromising defender of national interests
and the right wing defends the opposite. The most viable leftist presidential candidates
in Brazil are reformers to a greater or lesser extent, while those on the right are
conservative.
The candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, who is a radical right-wing, and therefore a defender of
the maintenance of the privileges of the ruling classes, makes the impression in his
interviews that he does not understand anything about economics, a fact that is very bad
because the President of the Republic has to have discernment to decide on the best
ways to develop Brazil. Asked if he has a development plan for Brazil, he replied that
he has not and that no one has. For the above, Bolsonaro shows lack of preparation to
govern Brazil for not understanding economics and not pointing out the concrete
solutions that lead to overcoming the current crisis and reactivate the national economy.
The crisis that affects Brazil would deepen with the rise to power of Jair Bolsonaro.
Marina Silva, who is of center-left, has criticized the Michel Temer government and its
neoliberal economic agenda, as well as political reform under discussion in parliament.
Marina criticized the Planalto's Social Security reform bill and attacked the way Temer
forwarded the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution that sets a ceiling on public
spending for 20 years. Marina had already been accused by former members of her
party for not taking a stand on the main issues of the country. At the end of 2016 a
group of intellectuals stamped out of the party stating in a note that "Brazilian society
does not know what the Network thinks, nor can it situate it in the ideological political
spectrum." Marina Silva does not propose an economic plan that contributes to
overcome the present crisis and to promote the resumption of development. The crisis
that affects Brazil would deepen with the rise to power of Marina Silva.

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Ciro Gomes, who is center-left, already has a set of proposals with which, as he says,
Brazil will celebrate a "national development project". For Ciro Gomes, the
development project he defends aims to overcome misery. To reach it, the tactic is to
industrialize the country. Another is the industrial health complex, to get the country out
of international dependence on drugs, equipment, prostheses, diagnostic technology -
many of which, he said, with patent-pending. And lastly the defense industrial complex.
Ciro Gomes affirms that he will reduce the interest rate constantly to a global level and
that he will propose a change project in the tax system. Ciro Gomes proposes a strategy
that contributes to the reduction of the public debt that is the main economic problem
faced by Brazil. One of the first measures, he said, would be the repeal of FHC's
unbelievable bill that repealed taxation on profits and dividends. The crisis that affects
Brazil could be solved with the rise to power of Ciro Gomes because he is the only
candidate who has a consistent plan to overcome the crisis and to promote the
development for Brazil.
Geraldo Alckmin, who is center-right, is threatened by allegations of corruption against
members of his party (PSDB), especially those that weigh against Senator Aécio Neves.
Alckmin was also accused of receiving $ 10 million in undeclared Odebrecht amounts,
which he denies. The Alckmim candidacy represents the continuity of neoliberalism as
an antisocial and antinational economic policy inaugurated in Brazil by the FHC
government in the 1990s, also implemented by the governments Lula, Dilma Rousseff
and Michel Temer. The neoliberal economic policy of an Alckmim government would
further aggravate Brazil's economic and social situation. Geraldo Alckmim does not
point out concrete solutions that will overcome the current crisis. The crisis that affects
Brazil would deepen with the rise to power of Geraldo Alckmin.
The PT candidate who would take the place of Lula, who is center-left, would weigh
against him the fact that the PT governments have contributed to the catastrophic
economic, political and social situation and to the systemic corruption experienced by
Brazil today. The focus of the PT candidate's platform is to increase credit for
production and consumption in order to reduce the number of unemployed. Among the
proposals that the PT summit defends to face the crisis are the creation of a
Development and Employment Fund, a 20% increase in the values of the Bolsa Família
Program and a real increase in the minimum wage, in addition to the correction of the
Income Tax table , with ceiling of exemption superior to the current one. The PT
candidate would try to reactivate the Brazilian economy and increase the supply of jobs
with public investment with the use of international reserves and the increase of credit
for production and consumption. The PT does not propose, however, any strategy that
contributes to the reduction of the public debt that is the main economic problem faced
by Brazil. The PT does not propose changes in the economic model that would continue
under the aegis of neoliberalism, nor does it point to concrete solutions that could
contribute to overcoming the current crisis and promoting the resumption of
development.
Considering the fact that Brazil, as an economic, social and political organization, finds
itself in disintegration whose signs are evident in all parts of the Country and that the
current economic stagnation tends to worsen in Brazil with the increase of
unemployment and the reduction of state revenues which may make it unfeasible its
capacity of intervening in the economy, the election of a President of the Republic who
is unable to overcome the current crisis and reactivate the Brazilian economy can lead

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the country to social upheaval. To avoid this scenario, it´s necessary to elect a President
of the Republic who have conditions to increase the capacity of the Brazilian
government and political institutions in general to offer effective responses to
overcoming the political, economic and social crisis which affect the Brazilian nation .
Without the solution of these problems, the country may be convulsed and chaos may
settle in Brazil with the increase of demonstrations of the population in the streets and
the presence of right and left militias to fight against their opponents.
Just as the far-right SA (extreme right-wing Nazis) and extreme left communist
paramilitary groups emerged and confronted with extreme violence in Germany during
the Weimar Republic after World War I, which contributed to the rise of Nazism, the
same can happen in Brazil after the 2018 elections if elected a President of the Republic
that does not carry out the political, economic and social reforms necessary to overcome
the current crisis and the resumption of development. Violence by right-wing and left-
wing militias could create an atmosphere of social upheaval that would provide the
necessary justification for a coup d'état to be sponsored in Brazil aimed at maintaining
political, economic and social order. The only scenario that would prevent the triggering
of violence between left and right with the consequent establishment of a dictatorship is
the election of a President of the Republic committed to the majority of the population
and having a well-designed development plan that is that of the candidate Ciro Gomes.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 78, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in
Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and
consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy
systems, is the author of 13 books addressing issues such as Globalization and Development, Brazilian
Economy, Global Warming and Climate Change, The Factors that Condition Economic and Social
Development, Energy in the world and The Great Scientific, Economic, and Social Revolutions that
Changed the World.