OS20 - Tracking livestock movements to understand the patterns and risks of foot-and-mouth disease spread in traditionally managed systems in east Africa - Dr. D. Ekwem

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EuFMD

OS20 Online 8 December

Saúde e medicina

1EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
Divine Ekwem1, Tiziana Lembo1, Jessica Enright1, Joram Buza2, Gabriel
Shirima2, Richard Reeve1, Grant. Hopcraft1, Thomas Morrison1
Tracking livestock movements to
understand the patterns and risks of FMD
spread in traditionally managed systems
in East Africa
1Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health,
University of Glasgow, United Kingdom.
2Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology,
School of Life Sciences and Bioengineering, Arusha, Tanzania.

2EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
• Local outbreaks are frequent among
livestock that share resource areas (e.g.
water and pasture)
Understanding herd mixing at communal resource areas
is vital for mitigating risk of local FMD outbreaks
Boma
Dipping point
Selected grazing area
Other grazing area
Watering location
Serengeti ecosystem
Boma
Dipping point
Selected grazing area
Other grazing area
Watering location
Serengeti ecosystem
LakeVictoria
LakeEyasi
LakeManyara
LakeNatron
Arusha
Nairobi
Kenya
Serengeti
Ecosystem Tanzania
• We placed 52 GPS collars on cattle to
understand fine-scale movement
patterns and contacts

3EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
Drivers of movements; time and locations of high
probability of contacts and risks of FMD local spread
Dist.boma:Herd.size
Rainfall:Dist.grazing
Rainfall:Dist.watering
Dist.grazing
Dist.watering
Dist.dipping
Rainfall
Herd.size
Dist.boma
-1 0 1 2
Estimate
Model
hour/50m
day/50
week/50
hour/200
day/200
week/200
hour/500
day/500
week/500
Maximumdistancedisplaced(km/day)Totaldistancemoved(km/day)
Log(Herd size)
Log(Herd size) Rainfall
Rainfall
Log(Herd size)
50m200m500m
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
Time of day (am/pm)
Percentageofcontacts
Time
hour
day
week
50m200m500m
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
Time of day (am/pm)
Percentageofcontacts
Time
hour
day
week
Large herd sizes were moved most Most contacts occurred in the
early morning and afternoon
Most contacts occurred around dips

4EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
Summary
• Larger herd travel longer distances but contact is higher for smaller herd types,
especially for smaller spatiotemporal scales of contact
• Dipping points have the highest probability of
contact, and represent highest risks
• Water points are higher risk areas, especially
for direct contacts that occur between 12-
15:00 hours
• Grazing locations are high risk areas,
particularly for longer duration of contacts

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