http://Emini-Watch.com - Why buy and hold won't work, imho. Video available on the website.

1. Why I’m a Big Ole BearorStock Market Returns1979 - 2007 & beyond

2. 9.8% CAGR from 1979 to 2007 …

3. And I remember 1979 …

4. But how did we manage this? …

5. Continued population growth … 10% 8% 6% 4% Population Growth 1.1% 2%

6. Once-in-lifetime IT revolution … 10% 8% 6% Cost Reduction 2.0% 4% Population Growth 1.1% 2%

7. Plus inflation (thank you Fed) … 10% Pricing Power 3.9% 8% 6% Cost Reduction 2.0% 4% Population Growth 1.1% 2%

8. Corporate tax rates down 11% …

9. Resulting in greater earnings … 10% Corporate Taxes 0.6% Pricing Power 3.9% 8% 6% Cost Reduction 2.0% 4% Population Growth 1.1% 2%

10. And interest rates halved …

11. Resulting in higher valuations … Interest Rates 2.4% 10% Corporate Taxes 0.6% Pricing Power 3.9% 8% 6% Cost Reduction 2.0% 4% Population Growth 1.1% 2%

12. Why did the stock market go up? Interest Rates 2.4% TOTAL 10.0% S&P500 9.8% 10% Corporate Taxes 0.6% Pricing Power 3.9% 8% 6% Cost Reduction 2.0% 4% Population Growth 1.1% 2%

13. What about the next 30 years? 1979 - 2007 2007 – 2020? Population Growth 1.1% 0.6% Cost Reduction 2.0% 1.0% Pricing Power 3.9% 2.0% (?) Corporate Taxes 0.6% -0.2% Interest Rates 2.4% -0.6% 10.0% 2.8%

14. Why I’m a bear (and trader) … Pension system Unrealistic future expectations of 7-8% Unfunded pensions Public sector paid out of current tax take, etc. Tax returns Corporate profitability down Capital gains down Stamp duty down, etc. Private, Corporate & Public Debt …

15. Emini-Watch.com