some ideas about the impact of AI on organisations

1. one in ten
AI
THEULTIMATEHUMANRESOURCE?
29-11-18

2. !2
Elfried
KlarenbeekBased

3. v
‣How did we get here
‣What is it
‣Where are we now
‣What’s the impact
‣Discussion

4. THE FUTURE IS NO LONGER
WHAT IT USED TO BE

5. We’re moving
fast. But nobody
knows where
we’re going
THE FUTURE IS NO LONGER
WHAT IT USED TO BE

6. THE NEXT INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
1771 1801 1831 1861 1891 1921 1951 1981 2011 2041 2071
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1ST
mechanical production
steam power energy
1784
2ND
electrical energy
mass production
1870
3RD
electronics & IT
http
1971
4TH
artificial intelligence
robotics
today

8. MAJOR
SHOCKS
4

9. MAJOR
SHOCKS
1

10. 50%
ONLINE
7.5 BILLION
3.8 BILLION PEOPLE ARE ONLINE

11. DIGITAL
ADDICTS

12. THE NEW NORMAL

13. https://www.1843magazine.com/features/the-scientists-who-make-apps-addictive?utm_source=MIT+TR+Newsletters&utm_campaign=65aa74dc1a-The_Download_October_20_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_997ed6f472-65aa74dc1a-153808189&goal=0_997ed6f472-65aa74dc1a-153808189&mc_cid=65aa74dc1a&mc_eid=e0f8e30941
THE 3RD BRAIN

14. MAJOR
SHOCKS
2

15. Platform
revolution

16. 2001
2006
2011
2016
TECH PLAYERS DOMINANT (MARKET CAP)
1 2 3 4 5

17. BIG BANG MARKET ADOPTION
ROGERS CURVE
(1995)
CRITICALINSIGHT

18. AMAZON IS PULLING AWAY AS THE
BIGGEST STORE
E-commerce sales,
12 mths, in billions, Fortune
Amazon 82.8
Walmart 12.5
Jome Depot 4.7
Macy 4.1
Best Buy 4.0
Costo 3.8
Nordstrom 2.7
Gap Inc 2.53
Kohl’s 2.52
Target 2.51

19. MAJOR
SHOCKS
3

20. TECHNOLOGY HAS
BECOME THE BASIS
FOR COMPETITION

22. the end
of tech
companies
“This is the end of ‘tech companies’. The era of “tech
companies” is over; there are only ‘companies’, steeped in
technology, that will survive.”Rob Thomas

24. DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION

25. DIGITISATION HAS BARELY STARTED
40 60 80 10020
fully
digitised
some core
change
no
change
37% average
across all
industries

26. QUIZ

27. THE NEXT INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
1771 1801 1831 1861 1891 1921 1951 1981 2011 2041 2071
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1ST
mechanical production
steam power energy
1784
2ND
electrical energy
mass production
1870
3RD
electronics & IT
http
1971
4TH
artificial intelligence
robotics
today

28. MULTIPLE DISRUPTIVE
TECHNOLOGIES
GROWING EXPONENTIALLY

29. v
‣How did we get here
‣Where are we now
‣What’s the impact
‣Discussion

30. AI can be defined as the
ability of a machine to
perform cognitive
functions
…….which are normally associated
with humans.

31. Neural Networks and Deep Learn
Machines emulating the human brai
enabling AI models to learn like hum
Computer Vision
Gives computers the ability to
“see” images similar to how
humans see.
Smart Robotics
The combination of AI and robots to
perform advanced tasks compared to
traditional non-intelligent robots.
Speech Recognition
Enables computers to interpret spo-
ken language and to transform it into
written text or to treat it as commands
for a computer.
Machine Learning
A computer’s ability to ‘learn’
from data, either supervised or
non-supervised.
Natural Language Processing
Computer interpretation, under-
standing, and generation of written
natural human language.
Biometrics
Analysis of human physical and
emotional characteristics – used
also for identification and access
control.
Text Analysis
Computational analysis of texts,
making it readable by other AI or
computer systems.
Virtual Agents
Computer-generated virtual personas
that can be used to interact with people
in both B2C, C2B, and B2B contexts.

32. computer performance
time
human performance
we are now here
computer performance
time
human performance

33. IN JUST 4 HOURS GOOGLE’S AI
MASTERED ALL THE KNOWLEDGE
IN CHESS HISTORY

34. Ability to accomplish
virtually any goal,
including learning
GENERAL
INTELLIGENCE
NARROW
INTELLIGENCE
Ability to accomplish
a narrow set of goals,
e.g., play chess or drive a car

35. No consensus on
short-term questions:
AI’s economic legal
and military impact,
THE WORLD’S LEADING AI RESEARCHERS
DISAGREE
No consensus on big
questions:
Reaching artificial
general intelligence
(AGI)and beyond,

36. DIGITAL
ASSITANTS

43. HUB
ZENBO
MORO
AMY
KURI

44. ROBOTICS

48. COGNITIVE
COMPUTING

49. 1 million
books per
second
0.0005
books per
second

51. http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-37653588

54. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMXPyKYY0u8

55. Within five years,
I believe all major
business decisions
will be enhanced by
cognitive
technologies
KEVIN KELLY
EXECUTIVE EDITOR OF WIRED MAGAZINE

56. AI MEMBER OF THE BOARD OF VC FIRM

57. EVERYTHING
COGNIFIED

58. AI will be woven into
the very fabric of our
lives
AI will be like
electricity
KEVIN KELLY
EXECUTIVE EDITOR OF WIRED MAGAZINE

60. FACE ID

65. v
‣How did we get here
‣Where are we now
‣What’s the impact
‣Discussion

66. THE NEXT INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
1771 1801 1831 1861 1891 1921 1951 1981 2011 2041 2071
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1ST
mechanical production
steam power energy
1784
2ND
electrical energy
mass production
1870
3RD
electronics & IT
http
1971
4TH
artificial intelligence
robotics
today

67. The period
between the old
and the new
CHANGE FOLLOWS A PREDICTABLE PATTERN

68. 2020 2030
Laggards
Not absorb by 2030
Followers
Absorbing by 2030
Front runners
Absorbing within 5- 7 yr
cash flow
(economic benefit captured minus
associated investment and transition
costs)
FRONT-RUNNERS ARE
LIKELY TO BENEFIT
DISPROPORTIONATELY

69. Strategy
Management
HR
Admin
Group
R&D
Product
Product
IT
Procurement
Manufacturing
Operations
Operations
Marketing
SalesCustomer service
Commercial
71%OF COMPANIES
CONSIDER AI AS AN IMPORTANT TOPIC
DEPLOYMENT AI ACROSS
THE COMPANIES’ VALUE
CHAINS

70. the next 10,000
startups:
take X and add AI
KEVIN KELLY
EXECUTIVE EDITOR OF WIRED MAGAZINE

72. AI could potentially deliver
additional economic output of
around $13 trillion by 2030,
Source Mckinsey
……..boosting global GDP by
about 1.2 percent a year.

73. SCARY
STUFF

74. predictive
policing

75. Fake news becomes real

77. What’s in the black box?

79. JOB AUTOMATION
Will technology
automate work as
artificial intelligence
and robotics become
mainstream?

80. THE WHOLE HISTORY IS A STEADY PROCESS
OF REPLACING ALL FORMS OF LABOR BY
MACHINES.
IT STARTED WITH MACHINES REPLACING
FARM ANIMALS AND THEN MANUAL
LABORERS, AND IT KEPT GROWING AND
GROWING AND GROWING.

81. Technology creates more jobs than it destroys over time, mainly outside the industry itself
Technology creates more jobs than it destroys over time, mainly outside the industry itself
creates more jobs than it destroys over time, mainly outside the industry itself
Exhibit E3
-30
-30
-27
-22
-15
-31
-30
-23
-18
Trade
(retail and wholesale)
Construction
Transportation
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Household work1
Mining
Professional services
Utilities
Business and
repair services
Telecommunications
Health care
Entertainment
Education
Government
Financial services
30
10
40
80
70
90
50
60
100
20
0
20001850 15501900
India
Manufacturing
India
Agriculture (1987)
China
Manufacturing
Germany
Construction (1971)
Japan
Retail trade
United States
Accommodation, food
Japan
Manufacturing (1994)
Germany
Agriculture
China
Agriculture (1996)
History shows that technology has created large employment and sector shifts, but also creates new jobs
Large-scale sector employment declines have been countered by
growth of other sectors that have absorbed workers
Share of total employment by sector in the United States, 1850–2015
Historical 15-year sector declines,
1960–2012
Potential future 15-year sector declines,
2016–30
Early automation
scenario
Late automation
scenario
Selected examples of large sector
employment declines, past and future
% decline in sector employment
% of FTEs
19,263 jobs created
3,508 jobs destroyed
Net 15,755
Technology creates more jobs
than it destroys over time
Between 1850 and 2015

82. OF CURRENT WORK ACTIVITIES
ARE TECHNICALLY
AUTOMATABLE
%
50

83. !83
3 of the world's 10 largest employers,
………are now replacing their
workers with robots

84. Slowest
10 million
WE ESTIMATE THAT BETWEEN 400 MILLION AND 800 MILLION
INDIVIDUALS COULD BE DISPLACED BY AUTOMATION…………….
WORK POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED BY
ADOPTION OF
AUTOMATION
Midpoint
400million
Fastest
800 million
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
……..………………………….AND NEED TO FIND NEW JOBS BY 2030

85. Applying expertise
Interacting with stakeholders
Managing people
Unpredictable physical labour
Processing data
Collecting data
Predictable physical work
“If you can
describe your job
it will be
automated”
ROUTINE JOBS WILL BE AUTOMATED
New skills
+
-

86. So what is the deal with HI ?

87. We are smarter then AI
Artificial intelligence
musical-rhythmic intelligence
visual-spatial intelligence
verbal-linguistic intelligence
bodily-kinesthetic intelligence
logical-mathematical intelligence
interpersonal intelligence
intrapersonal intelligence
naturalistic intelligence
Humans are smarter than you think

88. Cognition is embodied.
You think with your body and
not just With your brain.
”
We can’t automate what we don’t understand

89. We can not automate
what we do not
understand
The hard problem:
How does something
immaterial as
consciousness
arise from something as
unconscious as
matter

90. FUTURE OF WORK, SOCIETY & THE HUMAN MIND
DO-ING BE-ING
Thinking
Feeling
Creating
Learning
Connecting
Collaborating
Trust-Building
Problem Solving
Be-ing Human
ZAI HI+

93. v
‣How did we get here
‣Where are we now
‣What’s the impact
‣Discussion

94. What do organisations need
to do when it comes to AI ?

95. If superhuman AI appears,
will it be a good thing?
When (if ever) will AI
surpass human level?
GENERAL
INTELLIGENCE

96. If superhuman AI appears, will it be a good thing?
WhenwillAIsurpasshumanlevel?
√
Definitely
Good
Definitely
Bad
Probably
bad
Highly
uncertain
Probably
Good
Soon
Never
100
years
Few
decades

97. If superhuman AI appears, will it be a good thing?
WhenwillAIsurpasshumanlevel?
√ Definitely
Good
Definitely
Bad
Probably
bad
Highly
uncertain
Probably
Good
Soon
Never
100
years
Few
decades
TECHNO-SKEPTICS
We Humans are so much more
then a computer could possibly
emulate.
BENEFICIAL AI
MOVEMENT
Technology is giving
humankind the
potential to flourish like
never before —
or to self-destruct.
DIGITAL
UTOPIANS
A truly super
intelligence will
automatically
have good
intentions.

98. AGI is so hard that it won’t happen for
hundreds of years, and therefore view
it as silly to worry about it now.
TECHNO-
SKEPTICS
People in this camp: Andrew Ng
chief scientist at Baidu
Science can’t even explain what
consciousness is or even where its is
located.
We have eight or more forms of
intelligence. Logic thinking is only
one of them.
“Fearing a rise of killer robots is like
worrying about overpopulation on Mars.”
Intelligence is embodied. We actually
think with our bodies.
We Humans are so much more then
a computer could emulate.

99. Technology is giving life the
potential to flourish like never
before — or to self-destruct.
The goal of AI should be
redefined: the goal should be to
create not undirected intelligence,
but beneficial intelligence.
BENEFICIAL AI
MOVEMENT
People in this camp: Elon Musk,
Bill Gates Stephen Hawking
For the first time we might build
technology powerful enough to
permanently end humanity itself.
We might create societies that flourish
like never before, on Earth and
perhaps beyond.
We might create a Kafkaesque global
surveillance state so powerful that it
could never be toppled.
Our choices can potentially
affect the entire future of life.

100. Digital life is the natural and
desirable next step in the cosmic
evolution and we should let digital
minds be free rather than try to
stop or enslave them
The outcome is almost certain to
be good.
A truly super intelligence will
automatically have good intentions.
AI paranoia would delay the
digital utopia and/or cause a
military takeover of AI.
DIGITAL
UTOPIANS
People in this camp: Larry Page