3. 3
DECISION MAKING
“Decision making is the
coherent and rational
process of identifying a set
of feasible alternatives and
choosing a course of action
from them.”
4. 4
DECISION MAKING
Continuous process of analyzing and
considering various alternatives in
various situations, choosing the most
appropriate course of action and
following them up with the necessary
actions.
5. 5
CHARACTERISTICS
1. Decision-making is based on rational
thinking. The manager tries to foresee various
possible effects of a decision before deciding a
particular one.
2. It is a process of selecting the best from
among alternatives available.
3. It involves the evaluation of various
alternatives available. The selection of best
alternative will be made only when pros and
cons of all of them are discussed and
evaluated.
6. 6
CHARACTERISTICS
4. Decision-making is the end
product because it is preceded by
discussions and deliberations.
5. Decision-making is aimed to
achieve organizational goals.
6. It also involves certain
commitment. Management is
committed to every decision it takes
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BASIS FOR DECISION-MAKING
1. INTUITION
2. FACTS
3. ECPERIENCE
4. CONSIDERED OPINIONS
5. OPERATIONS RESEARCH
6. LINEAR PROGRAMMING
8. 8
TYPES OF DECISION MAKING
PROGRAMMED DECISIONS
NON-PROGRAMMED DECISIONS
STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL DECISIONS
INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP DECISIONS
9. 9
PROGRAMMED DECISIONS
Programmed decisions are those that are made
using standard operating procedures or other
well-defined methods. They are situations that are
routine and occur frequently.
Example:
1. Request of leave or permissions by employees.
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STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL DECISIONS
Strategic decisions relate to policy matters and need the
development and analysis of alternatives. These decisions
influence organizational structure, objectives, working
conditions, finances etc. Strategic decisions exercise great
influence on the functioning and direction of the organization
and have long-term implications.
Tactical decisions are more specific, functional and have short-
term implications. Such decisions are taken by referring to
established rules, procedures and standards.
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INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP DECISIONS
A decision taken by one person is known as individual decision. Such
decisions are generally taken as per predetermined rules and
procedures and require less application of judgment and skill. When a
manager is required to take a decision, he is supplied with
information and other inputs needed for this purpose.
When decisions are taken by two or more persons, these are known as
group decisions. Generally, strategic or other important decisions are
taken by groups instead of individuals because of risk involved. The
decisions of Board of Directors or Committees come under this
category.
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CERTAINTY
Decisions are made under conditions of certainty when
the manager has enough information to know the
outcome of the decision before it is made.
The manager knows the available alternatives as well
as the conditions and consequences of those actions.
There is little ambiguity and hence relatively low
possibility of making a bad decision.
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Risk
Most managerial decisions are made under conditions
of risk.
Decisions are taken in risk when the manager has some
information leading to the decision but does not know
everything and is unsure or unaware of the
consequences.
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uncertainty
Decisions are made under uncertainty when the
probabilities of the results are unknown.
There is no awareness of all the alternatives and also
the outcomes, even for the known alternatives
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Decision Making - Styles
Directive or Autocratic Decision
Making
Analytical Decision Making
Behavioral Decision Making
Conceptual Decision Making
18. 18
DIRECTIVE OR AUTOCRATIC DECISION MAKING
Managers who follow this style assess few alternatives
and consider limited information while taking any
decision.
They do not find it important to consult with others or
seek information in any form and use their logic and
idea while taking decisions.
19. 19
ANALYTICAL DECISION MAKING
Managers using analytic decision-making style would like to
have more information and consider more alternatives before
coming to a conclusion.
They seek relevant information from their sources and
consider factual and detailed information before taking any
decision. Such managers are careful decision makers as they
have the ability to adapt or cope with unique situations.
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BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING
Leaders who follow this model believe in participative
management and consider the achievement of subordinates
and always take suggestions from them
They try to get inputs from subordinates through meetings
and discussions. They try to avoid/resolve conflicts as
acceptance by others is important to them
21. 21
CONCEPTUAL DECISION MAKING
Managers using conceptual decision-making style are
intuitive in their thinking and have high tolerance for
ambiguity
They look at many alternatives and focus on long run
outcomes.
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DECISION TREES
Represented as tree-shaped diagram used to
determine a course of action or show a statistical
probability.
Each branch of the decision tree represents a
possible decision or occurrence.
The tree structure shows how one choice leads to
the next, and the use of branches indicates that
each option is mutually exclusive.
A decision tree can be used by a manager to
graphically represent which actions could be
taken and how these actions relate to future
events.
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DELPHI TECHNIQUE
It is a group process using written responses to a
series of questionnaires instead of physically
bringing individuals together to make a decision.
Individuals are required to respond to a set of
multiple questionnaires, with each subsequent
questionnaire built from the information gathered
in the previous one.
The process ends when the group reaches a
consensus.
The responses can be kept anonymous if required
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PAYBACK ANALYSIS
It refers to the period of time required to
recoup the funds expended in an
investment, or to reach the break-even
point.
It is generally used to evaluate capital-
purchasing alternatives.
Alternatives are ranked according to the
time each takes to pay back its initial cost.
The strategy is to choose the alternative
that has the quickest payback of the initial
cost.
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SIMULATIONS
It is a widely used technique in operations research.
It models the behavior of individual elements within a
given system.
Methods generally used in simulation are random
sampling to generate realistic variability.
The overall behavior of the system emerges from the
interactions between the elements.
Widely used application areas of the simulation
technique are - logistics and supply chain, service and
operations management, business process improvement,
health and social care information system, environment,
etc.