The nature and organisation of work will be shaped by a multitude of factors – including economic, technological and demographic – in the coming decades. Speaking to The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Ian Stewart, chief economist at professional services firm Deloitte, explains why he believes the pace of technological innovation will have the greatest impact of all, especially the automation of work.

1. TheEIU:Whatwillbethebiggesttrendaffectingthefutureofworkinthenext10-15years?
Ian Stewart: The speed of innovation in business technology and the organisation of work will
be the biggest disruptor. It is where there is the most angst. But it is also where there is perhaps
the greatest opportunity as the economy slowly recovers. Developments in technology and work
structure will do what they have always done: simultaneously disrupt existing industries and
destroy jobs, raise GDP and create entirely new categories of work.
Some people take a pessimistic view and believe that work posts will be in decline, given the
increased capacity of machines. They see employment and salaries being suppressed. The former
US Treasury secretary, Larry Summers, has described technological change as “the largest
challenge for capitalism”, and two prominent Oxford academics, Michael Osborne and Carl Frey,
estimate that in the next two decades 47% of US jobs are at risk from computerisation.
I subscribe to the alternative view. The debate has become overly apocalyptic. Technology has
always been seen as a threat to jobs, but it has also been the principal agent of improved human
welfare.
The jobs that seem most likely to survive and thrive are those that require flexibility, creativity and
social intelligence. Now there’s clearly a risk that much of the benefit of technology could accrue
to a relatively small proportion of the population – some sort of skills or cognitive super elite. I
think one of the great challenges for society will be to ensure that the benefits of technological
progress are widely shared.
S P O N S O R E D B Y:
Automated disruption
Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, believes the
accelerating pace of technology innovation will have the
biggest impact on work in the coming decades
The nature and organisation of work will be shaped by a multitude of factors –
including economic, technological and demographic – in the coming decades.
Speaking to The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Ian Stewart, chief economist
at professional services firm Deloitte, explains why he believes the pace of
technological innovation will have the greatest impact of all, especially the
automation of work.
But while some experts fear that the acceleration of automation will necessarily
lead to widespread unemployment, Mr Stewart is confident that – as it has in
the past – technology will also give rise to new modes of work and new economic
opportunities.
What will change, he believes, are the qualities that will prove most valuable to
businesses. As repetitive and linear tasks are computerised, judgment, creativity
and emotional intelligence will be the key skills of tomorrow.
This interview is part of an investigation into the future of work by The
Economist intelligence Unit, sponsored by Ricoh Europe. For more, visit http://
bit.ly/eiufuturework Ian Stewart
Deloitte

2. What is the effect on salaries and workers’ rights?
The experience of the last quarter of a century points to what is likely to happen. Experience,
judgment, creativity and emotional intelligence are likely to be well remunerated.
Manufacturing employment is likely to continue shrinking. The long-term shift to services will
continue. Some of this will be in sectors that have been in a secular uptrend for many years:
education, health, professional and business services, and leisure.
The effects of technological change and rising real incomes are unpredictable. They will probably
generate strong growth in some very small sectors and create entirely new and as yet unthought-
of sectors. Who, for instance, could have predicted 30 years ago the explosive growth of gyms,
coffee shops or different forms of therapy?
The challenge for policy will be to ensure that those who lose out from change, or those with fewer
skills, are helped and protected.
How will the workforce change?
What we’re seeing in the UK is an increasingly diverse workforce, with a higher proportion of
women employed, more foreign-born workers, more elderly people working and more flexible
types of working.
Employers should expect the workforce to continue changing, and they will need to accommodate
the evolving expectations. We are seeing this already. Today, a record 37% of the workforce are
either self-employed or working part-time. And since 2010, over 60% of jobs have gone to those
aged over 50.
In future, people will have extended working lives, reflecting improved longevity and better
healthcare. Job changes will be more frequent and career shifts less unusual. People are likely to
take more time out for childcare and family responsibilities, for sabbaticals, training and voluntary
work.
Numerous factors are intertwined here. In the West, public health and welfare entitlements,
especially for the elderly, are running ahead of the capacity and willingness of the state to pay.
Governments are locked into a long-term process of fiscal consolidation.
The interaction of declining state provision of benefits and longer lifespans points to longer
working lives and a rise in private-sector savings. The provision of benefits to employees,
including for healthcare and pensions, will be a key source of comparative advantage for those
seeking the best people.
What will be the impact of globalisation?
One of the big changes in many major markets is the increased internationalisation of the
workforce. In the UK, for example, the enlargement of the European Union has created an influx of
new employees in the last ten years. That seems likely to be a permanent change.
Since the start of the labour market recovery in 2010 the UK has seen total employment grow by
1.6m to a record 30.4m people. Half of the increase has come from immigration.
The effect of migration on wages, GDP and the employment prospects of UK-born workers is much
debated. Everything depends on the type of work undertaken and the volume of migration. In
the UK, immigration has been a supply shock, pushing the labour supply curve to the right and
creating a pool of skilled and energetic workers. This may well have put some downward pressure
on wages in certain sectors.
Technology has
always been seen
as a threat to jobs,
but it has also been
the principal agent
of improved human
welfare
Ian Stewart
Deloitte
S P O N S O R E D B Y: