Top Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society (Franck Leveque)

1. Top Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business,
Cultures and Society
By
Franck Leveque
Vice President & Business Unit Leader

2. What is a Mega Trend?
What is a Mega Trend?
Mega trends are
transformative, global
forces that define the
future world with their far
reaching impact on
business, societies,
economies, cultures and
personal lives.
Urbanization –
City as a
Customer
Smart is the
New Green
Social Trends
Connectivity
and
Convergence
Bricks and
Clicks
Innovating to
Zero
New Business
Models: Value for
Many
Beyond BRIC:
The Next Game
Changers
Future
Infrastructure
Development
Health,
Wellness and
Well Being
Future of
Mobility
2
Top Mega Trends Covered By The Visionary Innovation
Research Division
Future of
Energy

3. Connectivity &
Convergence

4. 10 Connected Devices for
Every Household by 2020
5 billion internet users by
2020
5 connected devices for every
user by 2020
500 devices with unique
digital IDs (Internet of things)
per square kilometre by 2020
80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020
4

5. 5
From 1G to 4G…..to 5G….and Bandwidth of >1GBPS
1G
2G
3G
4G
Digital
Voice
Calls
Data
Video
Streaming
Analog
Voice
Calls
Speed: 50 KBPS
Speed: 250 KBPS
Bandwidth: 20 MBPS
Bandwidth200 MBPS

6. 6
Space Jam Represents a New Frontier for Silicon Valley
Players to Create Connectivity in Unwired Parts of the Globe
Google Facebook SpaceX
Source: Frost & Sullivan

7. 77
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Connected Home Connected Work Connected City
• Home Automation
• Home Energy
• Home Health
• Home Entertainment
• Mobility - Mobile email,
Unified Communication
• Mobile Working
• Enterprise Social Networking
• eGovernance
• eCitizens
• Personal and Freight Mobility
• E-learning
• Mobile banking
Sub Trend: Future Connected Living Ecosystem
Connected life contains three important aspects of connected home, connected city,
and connected work

8. 8
QIVICON B2B Business Hub including partners from…
Health
(E.g Tunstall)
Multimedia
(E.g Samsung)
Automation
(E.g Belkin)
Security
(E.g Pax)
Energy
EnBW, Solon
Appliances,
electronics (A&E)
Miele, Samsung
QIVICON CONNECTED HOME PLATFORM for consumers aggregating service from all
partners.
Consumer Homes
B2B
B2B2C
Case Study: Connected Home’s B2B Platform Of Deutsche Telekom

9. 9
What Can Big Data Do For Us?
Text
Text
Internet Aggregators
Price transparency, unbundling of activities
Real-Time Prognostics
Proactive maintenance, warranty management
Personalization & Customization
‘Me-commerce’, Social media analytics and reporting for
targeted ads
New Products
User-based insurance, Telematics
Dynamic Pricing
Real-time billboard pricing, Price different vouchers, Surge
pricing (Uber)
Big Data
Applications

10. Sub Trend: Augmented Reality
Augmented Reality (AR) is defined as a real-time augmented view of the environment through
digital data through use of text, sound, graphics, video, and navigation systems that increases
user’s interactivity with the local environment . This extends business and mobility options,
social interactions and experiences which has implications on personal lives, businesses and even
day-to-day activities.
Reality Augmented
Reality
Augmented Virtuality Virtual World
10

11. 11
Implication: Connectivity Is Pushing Convergence
Connectivity will Accelerate Convergence of Industries, Products, Technologies and
Competition
INDUSTRIES
PRODUCTS
Car Unmanned Technology Autonomous Cars
TECHNOLOGIES
Building Technologies Smart Automation Smart Home Hubs
Healthcare Telecom M-Health
1
3
2
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysisImage Source:: `Creative Commons and Dreamstime.

12. Smart is the New
Green

13. 13

14. 14
Smart Diamond that Defines a Smart City
4G
Smart Energy
Smart Building
Smart Citizen
Smart Technology
Smart Healthcare
Smart Mobility
Smart Infrastructure*
Smart Governance
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.* Other Smart Infrastructure such as security solutions sensor networks,
digital management of water utilities not included in other segments

15. 15
Selected Smart Cities in 2025
Global Smart Cities
Over 26 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2025 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and
North America
Source: Forbes Smart City List, Innovation City Index, Specific Smart Project Websites for Each City, Frost & Sullivan
Toronto
San Francisco
Vancouver
Paris
New York
London Berlin
Barcelona
Amsterdam
Seattle
Tokyo
Singapore
Calgary
Chicago
Los Angeles
Vienna
Copenhagen
Oslo
Seoul
Beijing
Tianjin
Wuhan
Helsinki
Sydney
Shenzhen
Stockholm
Santander
(upcoming)

16. There Are Four Different Roles Smart Cities Players Can Take
16
Pure-Play
Product
Vendors
Managed
Service
Providers
Network
Service
Providers
Integrators Smart city integrators are project integrators - focussing on end-to-end
integration of multiple sectors
Example: IBM, Accenture, Siemens
Smart city network providers offer collaborative networks, data analytics and
enterprise working solutions
Example: Cisco, Verizon, Ericsson, AT&T
1
2
3
4
Smart city product vendors provide “hard assets” like smart meters and
distribution devices
Example: Eaton, Honeywell, ABB, Schneider Electric, Siemens
Smart city managed service providers offer round-the-clock monitoring, complete
management, compliance monitoring, and on-site consulting.
Example: IBM, Accenture, Infosys

17. Urbanisation - “City
as a Customer”
17

18. Mega Cities Mega Regions
Mega Corridor
18
Smart and
Sustainable Cities

19. Implication : Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation In
the Future
What are the Micro Implications?
• Logistics Consolidation Centers
• Hub and Spoke Business Model
• Urban Operating Systems
• New Mobility Solutions
• Smarter Resource Management
• City as a customer
19
In 2025
 New York City GDP = $1.28 trillion (close in
economic scale to South Korea with a GDP
of $1.12 trillion)
 Istanbul will account for more than 22% of
country’s GDP

20. Bricks and Clicks
20

21. Future of Clicks in Retail Industry
Global Online Retail Sales To Reach $4.3 Trillion By 2025 Accounting for 19% of Total Retail
$11.8
Trillion
$23
Trillion
$18.7
Trillion
$11.25
Trillion
$4.3
Trillion
Online Sales Non-Online Sales
5%
95%
19%
81%
21
2011 2025
United States
$1.32
Trillion
24%
18%
China
$1.30
Trillion
United Kingdom
$0.21
Trillion
Germany
$0.09
Trillion
Japan
$0.17
Trillion
26%
15%
10%
$0.55 Trillion

22. The Retail Model Will Evolve From a Single/Multiple Channel Model
to an Integrated Cross Channel Model
Source: Frost &
Sullivan Analysis
Department
Stores
Supermarkets Hypermarkets Online Mobile Payments Mobile Apps
Bricks (pre-2000) +Advent of Clicks (post-2000)
Interactive StoresVirtual Stores Hyper Online
Markets
The Future - Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond)
22

23. 23
Fully Digital,
Retail-Style Cyberstore
One-stop Experience
for Entire Model Range
Gamification, Augmented Reality
Offers Tailor-made services
Specially Trained Dealer
Personnel Interactivity
London Flagship Store
Highly personalized
customer dialogue
Case Study: Audi City London - First Digital Car Showroom
Example of Future Digital Car Showrooms that will be “Unlimited”, Personalised, Socially Connected and Digitally
Integrated

24. 24
Retail Strategy
Channel Strategy
Fulfillment Strategy
No direct retailing Direct retailing in selected regions; target
enthusiasts and DIY segments
Sell through
dealer estores
Own web store; dealer estores;
marketplace (ex. BMW Direct on eBay)
Primarily click ‘n’ collect from existing
dealerships
Likely to explore both click ‘n’ collect and
direct delivery
C L I C K A N D
P O S T
C L I C K A N D F I T
( d e a l e r s h i p / m o b i l e
C L I C K A N D
C O L L E C T
Case Study : Parts eRetailing Strategy

25. Retail Logistics: The “Holy Grail”
Offering a convenient delivery options at standard prices requires a smooth-running retail operation that combines a
real-time view of inventory with distribution points
Same-Day Night TimeClick ‘n’ CollectLocker Boxes
Microdistribution
Mobile Collection
Inventory
Visibility
Cold Supply
Chain
Services
Multiple
Delivery
Options
Smaller
Shipments
Frequent
Deliveries
Electric VehiclesUrban Intermodal Hubs

26. Social Trends

27. 27

28. Global Population in 2025: Out of 2.45 Billion Gen Y Population , Around 52% from Asia
Alone
Around 37% of Gen
Y Population Will
Live in India and
China Alone
World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2025
2025
2011
6.99
Billion
8.01
Billion
0-14 years 15-34 years 35-64 years 65 years and above
Source: Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations 2011; Frost & Sullivan, 2012
28

29. LicenceHolders(%ofthetotal)
Source: Frost and Sullivan Analysis
51 50 47 44 44 41 41 40 37 29 12
USA Canada UK Japan Italy Germany Spain Brazil China Russia India
5.17%
8.97%
6.05%
Driving Licence Analysis by Gender and Country
2012 marked the reversal of a long term gender gap behind the wheel in the US (across all age
groups)
Male licence holders
Women licence holders

30. Robots Priced Between $1.5k to $5k Could Enter our Personal
Lives by 2020
Robotic for Elderly Care:
Assisted Living
Robots as Teaching
Assistants
Nanobots Used for Targeted Drug DeliveryRobotic in Healthcare eg. Non
Invasive Surgeries Done by
Robotic Arms
Robot Window Cleaner
Robots at Home

31. Economic Trends

32. The Next Game Changers in 2025
High GDP growth, improved FDIs, and rapid industrialization to give rise to a new lot of emerging
countries, beyond BRIC nations, that contend to become next decade’s economic leaders
$2,327
Billion
$1,041
Billion $2,441
Billion
$653
Billion
$772
Billion $323
Billion
$483
Billion
Mexico Egypt
Turkey
Poland
Indonesia
Thailand
Vietnam
PhilippinesNext Game Changers
Note : The figure denotes GDP at
market prices. Forecasts to 2025 have
been extrapolated based on Nominal
GDP growth rate projections
Source: International Monetary Fund. Oxford Economics, Frost & Sullivan,
$3,071
Billion
$730
Billion
Nigeria
The trillion dollar economies
32

33. Mega Trend :
New Business Models:
Value for Many
33

34. New Business Models
Personalization
and Customization
Personalization &
Customization
Nike and BMW
Quirky .com
Co-Creation
One-off Experience
Pay as you go
PAYD and
PAHYD Car
Insurance
(BMW on Demand)
34
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

35. Why Do We Scout for New Business Models? Focusing on business
model innovation can lead to significantly higher returns
Cumulative Value Creation
Last 10 Years
Volume of Innovation Efforts
Last 10 YearsHi
Source: Doblin analysis, Doblin Inc.
Lo
Hi
Lo
Strategy Process Product Delivery
Business
model
Partnering
Enabling
process
Core process Product performance
Product
system
Service Channel Brand
Customer
experience

36. Impact of New Business Models: Disrupt.
Transform. Or Collapse
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Disrupt TransformCollapse

37. Hailo (UK)
Uber (USA,)
Disrupt Example: Example of On Demand Services: Taxi Apps
Assess the threat of taxi & on demand apps, and consider investing in current providers or a new rival Proposition
Since
2011
20
cities
42,000
Drivers
800,000
Users
8.5 million
Journeys
$6.3 million
Revenues
250
Cities
worldwide
8 million
Users
Revenue =
$200 million
(est)
$40bn
valuation

38. Examples of Collapsing Business Models
38
Collapse of Kodak after Digital
Print
Digital Retail Collapsing Brick
and Mortar Store
Collapse of Blockbuster after
Digital Film
Possible Collapse?

39. The Netflix Story: How the Disrupt, Collapse, Transform Was
Employed into its Evolution
39
DVD-by-Mail
Disruptor
On-Demand Video
Streaming Threatened
Collapse
Shifting to Production –
Backward Integration –
Transforming Netflix!

40. Mega Trend :
Health, Wellness and
Wellbeing
40

41. Mood
Stress levels
Mental health
Sense of optimism
Attitude
Security
Safety
Personal values
Personal fulfilment
Self image / self
actualisation
Sight / vision
Touch & feel
Smell / breathing
Sound
Temperature
Wellness
The 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To
Humans Definition of Health, Wellness and Well Being
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 41

42. 42
Key 2015 Medical Technology Trends
Launch of Clinical mHealth Apps Moving Beyond the Wrist for
Wearables
Vanishing Devices
Microsegmentation 3D/ 4D Printing Spurs Customization Brain-Interface Devices

43. Mega Trend :
Innovating to Zero

44. Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020
Zero
Emissions
from Cars
Zero
Accidents
Zero
Breaches of
Security
Zero
Crime
Rates
Zero Waste/
Emissions
Complete Recyclability
from Households (Cradle
to Cradle Concept)
Zero Defects
and Zero
Faults
Carbon Neutral
Factories and
Retail Stores
Carbon
Neutral Cities
Zero
Corporate
Debts
Zero Emails

45. Examples of “Innovating to Zero”
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
Off-the-Grid Buildings -
On-site Energy Harvest -
Use of Intelligent Systems -
Increase use of renewable energy
Net Zero Hospitals -
- Energy efficient buildings
- Greener Transport
- Waste Reduction and Waste
Recycling
- Increase use of Renewable
Energy
Cutting Edge IT -Infrastructure
and Services - that convert
Ideas to implementation on
real-time
Instant File Sharing -
Networking Interfaces -
Zero Management Gaps -Zero
Processing Time-
Zero Learning Gaps-
- In-house design, cutting,
finishing
- Continuous, speedy
deliveries
- Direct point-of-sale data
collection,
- Daily analysis of product
sales and customer feedback
using software analytics
Zero faults and zero -
errors in manufacturing
Highly Strict Quality -
Control
- Strong Health and Safety
Measures
- Safety Days (eg. Shell)
- Life-Saving Rules within
facilities
- Active safety systems in
vehicles that over ride
drivers
Zero Energy
Building
Zero AccidentsZero Defects
Carbon Neutral
City
Zero Time
Business
Incubation
Zero Design-
To-Shelf
(Retail)
45

46. Mega Trend :
Future of Energy
46

47. Top 10 Technologies and Markets to Watch for to 2025
Energy Efficiency and
SMART Buildings
LED Lighting
Revolution
Small Scale Distributed
Generation
SMART Grid & SMART
Energy
Advanced Batteries and
Energy Storage
SMART Water
Networks
Solar PV
Energy
Harvesting
Energy Recovery from
Waste
Gas-fired Power &
Shale Gas Exploitation

48. Mega Trend :
Infrastructure
Development

49. In Future, HS Rail will not only Connect Cities and Countries but
will also Connect Continents
• China : 25,000 kms by 2025 (7,431 kms in 2010)
• 2020 Trans Siberian Link: New Route 66
• Biggest Project: $68 billion California HSR
• UK project: £33 billion (by 2026)
What are the Opportunities?
• Copper-silver and copper-magnesium wires
• Steel Companies
• Construction tooling, spare parts
• Condition monitoring, security, surveillance,
• Data handling, Passenger information systems
• High Speed Logistics
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012

50. Mega Trend :
Future Of Mobility
50
50

51. Future of Mobility
Micro-mobility
Integrated mobility
Global car sharing
New Business Models (E.g. Taxi Apps)
Connected cars
Telematics based
insurance
Autonomous Cars

52. Future Innovation in Mobility to Focus on The “Wild” Side
Known
Solutions
Met Needs Unmet Needs
Unknown
Solutions
Technology Innovation
Traffic Prediction system
Dynamic Parking
ADAS features
Improvement
Micro cars
Electric and FC Cars
Electric Bikes
Application Innovation
Corporate mobility solutions
Car Sharing
Car Pooling
Bike Sharing
Wild Innovation
Mobility Integration
New Mobility Products and Services
Micro mobility solutions
52

53. DEMAND RESPONSIVE
TRANSPORT
(TAXI, BRT)
CONNECTED
LIVING (including
car)
INTERCITY PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
CAR LEASING
CAR RENTAL
CAR SHARING &
POOLING
INTRACITY PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
PHYD INSURANCE
DYNAMIC PARKING
CONCIERGE
SERVICES
ENERGY
MANAGEMENT
MICRO-MOBILITY
SOLUTIONS
TRAINS/FLIGHTS
INTEGRATION
APPS, JOURNEY
PLANNING, BIG DATA
From Car Configurator to Mobility Configurator
In Future Industry Stakeholders Will Showcase Mobility Integrators on line

54. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Ride
Sharing
Smart
Parking
Taxi
Hailing
Urban
Logistics
Car
SharingIntegrated
Mobility
…further investments and
partnerships to be expected
moovel – A Mobility Brand First; OEM Owned Second
Generating €80M revenue & targeting international expansion and revenues of
€800M by 2020

55. Conclusion

56. Utilities of The Past
56
18TH CENTURY
Industrial Revolution
19TH CENTURY
Electricity
20TH CENTURY
Communication
Industry
LATE 20TH CENTURY
The Internet
21st century
utilities?

57. 21st Century Utilities: What is the Future ?
57
Big data ? Healthcare ?
Mobility ?
Media ?

58. Discussions
58