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ACRO 2015
1
Drew Moghanaki, MD, MPH
Hunter Holmes McGuire Veterans Affairs Hospital
Virginia Commonwealth University
Richmond, Virginia
High Risk Prostate Cancer
Disclosures
I am employed by the healthcare system that brought you this
2
PIVOT, NEJM 2011
What’s So Controversial?
• Nihilism about the value of radiotherapy for high risk
– ADT alone?
• Justifying toxicity of tri-modality treatment
– Surgery, Radiotherapy, and ADT
• Publications by data scientists
– Misinforming urologists
– Confusing patients
– Irritating radiation oncologists
3
4
ADT Alone?
Lancet, 2009
HR: 0·44 (0·30–0·66, p<0·0001)
1996-2002
78% = T3
23% = SV+
40% = PSA>20
Max PSA <70
Lancet, 2011
1995-2005
83% = T3
4% = T4
18% = GS 8-10
63% = PSA >20
Max PSA <70
7
Challenges for Urologists
• Difficult to “get it all”
• MRI may help
– Outperforms Partin Tables
– Unintended consequence
• False reassurance
• More aggressiveness NVB sparing
• Higher positive margin
8
Gupta et al, Urol Oncol 2014
Borofsky et al, Urol 2013
Brown et al, Urol oncol 2009
Non-Believers
• Failure after Prostatectomy
– Urologists preferred to observe
– Some considered ADT, at time of symptoms
– Gradually, salvage RT was considered
• Data showed  OS with salvage RT
– Fast PSA doublers (Trock, 2008)
– Slow PSA doublers (Cotter, 2011)
9
RADIOTHERAPY
Helping Improve Urologists’
Outcomes in High Risk Patients
for Decades
10
Gambling with High Risk
11Karlin et al, J Urol 2014
ASTRO/AUA Guideline
Clinical Principle: Physicians should “offer”
adjuvant radiotherapy to patients with adverse
pathologic findings [SV, EPE, +Margin]
12
Still believes he will live longer
13
15 year: Urinary Function
Resnick, NEJM 2013
15 year: Sexual Function
Resnick, NEJM 2013
15 year: Bowel Function
Resnick, NEJM 2013
Data Scientists and Big Data
17
Low Risk Interm Risk High Risk
Scandinavian Registry
Sooriakumaan et al, BMJ 2014
}
The survival of CURED
patients should be equal,
irrespective of treatment.
IF BASELINE HEALTH
WAS SIMILARAT
BASELINE
OBVIOUSLY,
THEYARE NOT
Slideby JulianRosenman,MD, PhD
}
RadiotherapySurgery
Scandinavian Registry
n >30,000
Years
Survival
0 —
60 —
70 —
80 —
90 —
100 —
|
14
|
10.5
|
7
|
3.5
|
0
Cured radiation patients
Cured surgery patients
Why such a difference?
What is missing?
Slide by Julian Rosenman, MD, PhD
Survival of Cured Patients
The Absurd
21Nat Rev Urology 2013
Hope and the ASCENDE Trial
276 = High Risk
12 months LHRH
+
46 Gy EBRT
32 Gy EBRT vs 115 Gy I-125
7y DFS
Nadir + 0.2 38% 82%
Nadir + 2 71% 86%
22ASCO GU, 2015
ABS, 2015
ESTRO, 2015
Take Home Points
• Sharp instruments often miss tumor
– Leave behind toxicity
• Routine tri-modality therapy should be avoided
– No need to bother with surgery
• Don’t get fooled by data scientists
– QOL, Shared Decision, Multi-Disciplinary Clinics
23
Dr. Ehdaie may want you to believe
• He knows how to interpret the data
– Yes, he does.
• Surgery helps pts live longer.
– Yes, for high risk in PIVOT
– (Halsted once challenged radiotherapy)
• He’ll concede we need a RCT
– SPCG 15 (open, est. completion 2027)
– VA High Risk Study (concept)
24
What Dr. Ehdaie may forget to mention
Gatekeeper effect…
He may be less familiar with this
(Since Zelefsky helps keeps things honest at MSKCC)
25

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Surgery vs IMRT for High Risk Prostate Cancer Debate - ACRO 2015

  • 1. ACRO 2015 1 Drew Moghanaki, MD, MPH Hunter Holmes McGuire Veterans Affairs Hospital Virginia Commonwealth University Richmond, Virginia High Risk Prostate Cancer
  • 2. Disclosures I am employed by the healthcare system that brought you this 2 PIVOT, NEJM 2011
  • 3. What’s So Controversial? • Nihilism about the value of radiotherapy for high risk – ADT alone? • Justifying toxicity of tri-modality treatment – Surgery, Radiotherapy, and ADT • Publications by data scientists – Misinforming urologists – Confusing patients – Irritating radiation oncologists 3
  • 5. Lancet, 2009 HR: 0·44 (0·30–0·66, p<0·0001) 1996-2002 78% = T3 23% = SV+ 40% = PSA>20 Max PSA <70
  • 6. Lancet, 2011 1995-2005 83% = T3 4% = T4 18% = GS 8-10 63% = PSA >20 Max PSA <70
  • 7. 7
  • 8. Challenges for Urologists • Difficult to “get it all” • MRI may help – Outperforms Partin Tables – Unintended consequence • False reassurance • More aggressiveness NVB sparing • Higher positive margin 8 Gupta et al, Urol Oncol 2014 Borofsky et al, Urol 2013 Brown et al, Urol oncol 2009
  • 9. Non-Believers • Failure after Prostatectomy – Urologists preferred to observe – Some considered ADT, at time of symptoms – Gradually, salvage RT was considered • Data showed  OS with salvage RT – Fast PSA doublers (Trock, 2008) – Slow PSA doublers (Cotter, 2011) 9
  • 10. RADIOTHERAPY Helping Improve Urologists’ Outcomes in High Risk Patients for Decades 10
  • 11. Gambling with High Risk 11Karlin et al, J Urol 2014
  • 12. ASTRO/AUA Guideline Clinical Principle: Physicians should “offer” adjuvant radiotherapy to patients with adverse pathologic findings [SV, EPE, +Margin] 12
  • 13. Still believes he will live longer 13
  • 14. 15 year: Urinary Function Resnick, NEJM 2013
  • 15. 15 year: Sexual Function Resnick, NEJM 2013
  • 16. 15 year: Bowel Function Resnick, NEJM 2013
  • 17. Data Scientists and Big Data 17
  • 18. Low Risk Interm Risk High Risk Scandinavian Registry Sooriakumaan et al, BMJ 2014
  • 19. } The survival of CURED patients should be equal, irrespective of treatment. IF BASELINE HEALTH WAS SIMILARAT BASELINE OBVIOUSLY, THEYARE NOT Slideby JulianRosenman,MD, PhD } RadiotherapySurgery Scandinavian Registry n >30,000
  • 20. Years Survival 0 — 60 — 70 — 80 — 90 — 100 — | 14 | 10.5 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 Cured radiation patients Cured surgery patients Why such a difference? What is missing? Slide by Julian Rosenman, MD, PhD Survival of Cured Patients
  • 21. The Absurd 21Nat Rev Urology 2013
  • 22. Hope and the ASCENDE Trial 276 = High Risk 12 months LHRH + 46 Gy EBRT 32 Gy EBRT vs 115 Gy I-125 7y DFS Nadir + 0.2 38% 82% Nadir + 2 71% 86% 22ASCO GU, 2015 ABS, 2015 ESTRO, 2015
  • 23. Take Home Points • Sharp instruments often miss tumor – Leave behind toxicity • Routine tri-modality therapy should be avoided – No need to bother with surgery • Don’t get fooled by data scientists – QOL, Shared Decision, Multi-Disciplinary Clinics 23
  • 24. Dr. Ehdaie may want you to believe • He knows how to interpret the data – Yes, he does. • Surgery helps pts live longer. – Yes, for high risk in PIVOT – (Halsted once challenged radiotherapy) • He’ll concede we need a RCT – SPCG 15 (open, est. completion 2027) – VA High Risk Study (concept) 24
  • 25. What Dr. Ehdaie may forget to mention Gatekeeper effect… He may be less familiar with this (Since Zelefsky helps keeps things honest at MSKCC) 25