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Rubin agile 2012_strategies_for_porfolio_management.pdf
1.
Strategies for Portfolio
Management Agile 2012 Grapevine, TX August 14, 2012 by Kenny Rubin Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 1 Background of Kenny Rubin Author Trainer/Coach Experience Trained more than Former Managing 18,000 people in Director Agile/Scrum, SW dev and PM Provide Agile/ My first Scrum project was Scrum coaching to in 2000 for bioinformatics developers and executives Executive Copyright © 2007-2012, Innolution, LLC or Mountain Goat Software, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2
2.
Book Giveaway
At end of presentation I will give away two copies of the Essential Scrum Book One to the person with the best tweet of session-relevant content One to the most prolific tweeter of session-relevant content Must include: @krubinagile and #agile2012 in each tweet Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 3 Portfolio Planning Copyright © 2007-2012, Innolution, LLC or Mountain Goat Software, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4
3.
Portfolio Planning Strategies
Copyright © 2007-2012, Innolution, LLC or Mountain Goat Software, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5 O ptimize for s Lif ecycle Profit Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 6
4.
Discussion Questions –
Scheduling/Prioritization Variables When prioritizing your portfolio, what are the principal variables that you use? How do you compare variables to make economically sensible tradeoffs? Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 7 Focus on Lifecycle Profits Waste Reasonable measure of Cycle time business performance Variability Lifecycle profits Efficiency Provides common unit for comparing Customer Sat effects of key variables … Source: Donald Reinertsen Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 8
5.
Order Portfolio to
Maximize Portfolio-Wide Lifecycle Profits Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 9 y Cost of Dela Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 10
6.
Discussion Question – Cost
of Delay If you delay shipping your current project/ product one month, what would be the cost of that delay (in lifecycle profits)? Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 11 Issues with Cost of Delay Rarely quantified (<15% of the time) Helps us decide if we should trade money for cycle time Helps us decide if we should trade cycle time for variability Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 12
7.
Cost of Delay
Example Which project should we do first? Project A Project B Return on Investment 20% 15% Cost of Delay (1 month) $5,000 $75,000 Why? Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 13 Cost of Delay Profiles Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 14
8.
Cost of Delay
is the Time Dimension Cost of delay is not the only factor to consider when prioritizing items in the portfolio It is the time dimension that must be considered because it affects all other prioritization variables such as cost, benefit, knowledge, and risk Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 15 Estimate fort Accuracy No Precision Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 16
9.
Discussion Question – Accuracy
Versus Precision Scenario: Organization does nine-month π = 3.1 release cycles 100 candidate applications for each π = 3.1415926535897 release cycle 932384626433832 Marketing asks IT to produce LOEs 795028841971693 (level of effort estimates) for all applications IT spends considerable time trying to make each LOE very precise Oh yeah, the organization will only include 50 projects in next release What are your thoughts on this scenario? Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 17 Effort Versus Accuracy When Estimating Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 18
10.
T-shirt Size Estimating
Size Rough Cost Range Extra Small (XS) $10k to $25k Small (S) $25k to $50k Medium (M) $50k to $125k Large (L) $125k to $350k Extra Large (XL) >$350k (an example) Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 19 Economic Filtering Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 20
11.
Applying the Economic
Filter Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 21 Discussion Question – Economic Filtering Scenario A company is trying to decide if a development effort should be approved They are debating whether it will cost $70k or $75k. Apparently at $70k it would be approved, at $75k it would not What is your assessment of this situation? Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 22
12.
Simple Economic Filter—Benefit Should
Far Exceed Cost Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 23 Ma nage Project Arrival Rate Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 24
13.
Discussion Question – Arrival
Rate What happens to a restaurant if a tour bus of hungry seniors unexpectedly arrives at dinner time? Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 25 Want To Balance Portfolio Inflow and Outflow Rates Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 26
14.
Annual Strategic Planning Scenario:
Typically occurs in fiscal Q3 All projects for next fiscal year are simultaneously dropped into the portfolio What are the issues with this approach? What would you do to address the problem? Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 27 Introduce Smaller Products/ Projects More Frequently Traditional approach violates the principles of: Keeping planning options open until the last responsible moment Using economically sensible bath sizes Addressed by: Introducing smaller products to the portfolio on a more frequent basis Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 28
15.
t
Embr ace Emergen O pportunities Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 29 Discussion Questions – Emergent Opportunities How quickly are you able to exploit an emergent opportunity? How disruptive are such opportunities to your portfolio-management process? Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 30
16.
Deal with Emergent
Opportunities Quickly Emergent opportunities arrive continuously and randomly They are perishable—their values decay over time (frequently exponentially) Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 31 Sm aller More s e Fre quent Releas Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 32
17.
Discussion Questions – Project
Sizes How does project size affect overall portfolio performance? What happens if you get behind the large farm vehicle on a single lane country road? How do the lifecycle profits of a product compare between one large release and multiple, smaller releases? Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 33 Single Release Copyright © 2007-2012, Innolution, LLC or Mountain Goat Software, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34
18.
Multiple Releases
Copyright © 2007-2012, Innolution, LLC or Mountain Goat Software, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 35 Evaluating Return on Single Release Strategy Feature Value: All features = $300K/month Annual Release Return on Investment 1/2 features = $200k/month 1/3 features = $150k/month $4,000,000 Features begin earning money 1 month after release $3,000,000 Each month of development costs $100K $2,000,000 Each release costs $100K $1,000,000 $0 Single Release 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 12 months ($1,000,000) total cost: $1.3 M total 2 year return: $3.6 M ($2,000,000) net 2 year return: $2.3 M Months Cash Investment: $1.3 M Internal Rate of Return: 9.1% Example based on prior work by Jeff Patton Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 36
19.
Evaluating Return on
Semi Annual Release Strategy Feature Value: All features = $300K/month Semi-Annual Release Return on Investment 1/2 features = $200k/month 1/3 features = $150k/month $4,000,000 Features begin earning money 1 month after release $3,000,000 Each month of development costs $100K $2,000,000 Each release costs $100K $1,000,000 $0 Semi Annual Release 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 6 month increments ($1,000,000) total cost: $1.4 M total 2 year return: $4.8 M ($2,000,000) net 2 year return: $3.4 M Months Cash Investment: $.7 M Internal Rate of Return: 15.7% Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 37 Evaluating Return on Quarterly Release Strategy Feature Value: All features = $300K/month Quarterly Release Return on Investment 1/2 features = $200k/month 1/3 features = $150k/month $4,000,000 Features begin earning money 1 month after release $3,000,000 Each month of development costs $100K $2,000,000 Each release costs $100K $1,000,000 $0 Quarterly Release ($1,000,000) 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 3 month increments total cost: $1.6 M ($2,000,000) total 2 year return: $5.25 M net 2 year return: $3.65 M Months Cash Investment: $0.45 M Internal Rate of Return: 19.5% Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 38
20.
Id le Work
Not I dle Workers Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 39 Discussion Question – Addressing Available Capacity Scenario 100% We have started working on items in our portfolio, but we have some team Capacity members who are not yet at 100% capacity Should we start more projects from the portfolio to get them to 100% capacity? Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 40
21.
Focus on Idle
Work Not Idle Workers Watch the Baton Not the Runners† †Source: Larman & Vodde Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 41 Establish WIP Limit Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 42
22.
Discussion Question – WIP
Limit Why should a good restaurateur not seat paying customers at an available table if 30% of the servers called in sick that evening? Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 43 What is a WIP Limit? A work-in-process (WIP) limit would state how many projects we are willing to have active at the same time Goal is to match WIP with available capacity Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 44
23.
In Agile Portfolio
Management, the Unit of Capacity is the Team We favor long-lived teams that as a unit have a known capacity to deliver value Determine capacity in terms of teams Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 45 Complete, s Engaged Team Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 46
24.
Discussion Questions –
Team Availability Do you start a project before the full team is available to work on it? If so, what are the consequences? Team A Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 47 Wait Until Complete Team is Available Don’t start a new project with a partial team Wait until you have at least one full team Preferably wait until you have all necessary teams Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 48
25.
Marginal
Economics Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 49 Discussion Question – Would You Keep Spending? If you spend the first dollar on developing a product, is there any circumstance under which you would terminate development? Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 50
26.
Marginal Economics
Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 51 Summary Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 52
27.
Based on Chapter
16 of the Book Essential Scrum, by Kenny Rubin Copyright © 2007 - 2012, Innolution LLC. All Rights Reserved. 53 Contact Info for Kenny Rubin Email: krubin@innolution.com Website: www.innolution.com Phone: (303) 827-3333 LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/kennethrubin Twitter: www.twitter.com/krubinagile Essential Scrum: A Practical www.essentialscrum.com Guide to the Most Popular Agile Process Comparative Agility Website www.comparativeagility.com Copyright © 2007-2012, Innolution, LLC or Mountain Goat Software, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 54
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