1. Global Economic Outlook The Great Recession and Recovery Stephan S. Thurman, PhD Bureau for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs for Wichita State University, October 2010

2. Disclaimer 1 The State Department does not generate or publish a global economic outlook. The information contained in the slides below is generated from organizations or companies whose data are in the public domain, and to which the State Department has access.

3. The Great Recession – Deepest in 30 Years 1

4. The Great Recession – Trade Transmission 2

5. Great Recession: Did We See it Coming? 3

6. The ‘Great’ Recovery – Trade Returns 4

7. The ‘Great’ Recovery …is a “V” …We Hope 5

8. July 2010 IMF WEO Update 6

9. Selected Country GDP Outlook 7

10. Selected Country Inflation Outlook 8

11. Selected Country Current Accounts 9

14. G20 Trade Surpluses Get Smaller,,,, 12

15. … .while G20 Trade Deficits Shrink 13

16. 14 No Significant Global Imbalances

17. 15 Global Imbalances Emerge

18. 16 Global Imbalances Peak

19. 17 Global Imbalances Shrink With Recession

20. 18 Global Imbalances Re-Emerge with Recovery

21. Three Sources of Savings 19 Private Savings + Govt. Savings + Foreign Savings == 0 Disposable Income Less Consumption Less Investment --------------------------- Taxes Less Revenues ---------------------------- Imports Less Exports

23. National Export Initiative Double Exports in 5 Years 21