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1




                      digital:
             beyond the hype
10.04.2011
2




“The future is already here--it’s just not very evenly distributed.”
                                                       William Gibson
3                                                                         Gartner Group “Hype Cycle”




    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_tWgSlpwB5zc/TSFCNyjoonI/AAAAAAAAC9A/ND5neOEMTnc/s1600/Hype%2Bcycle.jpg
4
5

The Internet: nearly everyone, nearly everywhere
6




defining digital
communications, commerce, and culture 3.0
7

   connecting
disintermediating
   decoupling
     remixing
   processing
8




    connecting
9
Marshal McLuhan
         “The medium is the message.”




                  Media: a technology that affects society not by its
                  content but by its characteristics.




           225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
10


 no “content”...




                                                                                      ...but has social effect



                   225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
11


     “media”




     Sender            information or data                                             Receiver




               225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
11



 “mass media”
                                                                                        Receiver



                                                a         ta
                                         n or d
                              r  m   atio
                         info
     Sender             information or data                                             Receiver
                        info
                            rma
                                      tion
                                              or d
                                                  ata


                                                                                        Receiver




                225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
12




     social: the interaction of humans with other humans

 media: technology used to store and deliver information or data




                  225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
13


     social media
                                                                                            Participant

                                                     or data
                                            n
                                     rm atio
                              info




      Participant                  information or data                                      Participant




                               infor
                                        mati
                                                 on o
                                                         r dat
                                                              a
                                                                                            Participant



                    225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
14



Social Media:


technologies that facilitate conversations




            225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
15                  A (somewhat incomplete) Timeline of Social Media
                                                                                                                    not to scale



                                                           USENET
                                                            1979
                                                                         listserv            Napster                                        flickr
                                                                           1986               1999                                          2004
          pneumatic post
              1865



                                                                                                                             SecondLife
                                                                                                                                2003
postal service
Persia, 550BC
                                                                                The Palace        Wikipedia
                              radio      ARPANET                                                                                                        twitter
                                                                                   1994             2001
                              1891         1969                                                                                                          2006
                                                                 The WELL                                                     Facebook
                                                                   1985                                       Friendster        2003
                                                                                                                 2002




                                       @
                                                                                                                               MySpace               YouTube
                                       email
                                                                                             Third Voice                        2003                   2005
                                       1966               BBS                 IRC               1999
                                                          1978                1988

                           telephone
                                                                                                                              del.icio.us
                             ~1890
                                                                                                                                2003
     telegraph
    France, 1792                                          MUD1
                                                                                              Blogger
                                                          1978
                                                                                               1999

                                       CompuServe                            MoveOn
                                          1969                                1998                                                          digg
                                                                                              epinions                                      2004
                                                                                                1999



                                               225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
oral
     16    tradition   printing                 telegraph          radio       TV                   Internet




                                  media reach




                                                                                                                backchannel
                                                                                                                 disruption
audience




                                   response
                                     reach




                                        225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
                                                            time
17




disintermediating

     225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
18




                   p   t   c



     smith, 1483
19



                                        c

                                        c

                                        c
                            p

                            p   t   d   c

                            p           c

                                        c
     factory worker, 1860
                                        c
20



                                     c

                                     c

                                     c


                             p   t   c

                                     c

     digital creator, 2010           c

                                     c
21




      $5,972             $3,497                    $59,704




     smith, 1483   factory worker, 1860   web designer, 2010




                                          all salary numbers adjusted to 2010 dollars
22




     decoupling
23
24
25




     remixing
26   miles davis, France, 1967
27
28
29   this changes everything...
30
31
31
32




     processing
33




     http://www.krcadinac.com/turing.html
34
35
36
37
38
39




why now?
changes in communication, commerce, and culture
40




source: http://www.bullcitymutterings.com/2009_11_01_archive.html
41

Total US Music Sales




                       Source: http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/02/news/companies/napster_music_industry/
42
43
Global e-Book Sales Figures




     http://idpf.org/about-us/industry-statistics#Additional_Global_eBook_Sales_Figures
44




                          Advertising budget
                          priorities shifting....




     source: http://www.netx.com/blog/displayads/display-advertising/
45
 Advertising Spending Forecast
46
  Local advertising spending




                                                                Local advertising
                                                                spending shifting to
                                                                digital




source: http://theadzdr.com/2010/03/local-online-advertising/
47




     source: http://lifehacker.com/5482227/what-do-you-buy-online-vs-in-
                                     stores
48                DRAFT




digital: impact
49




“Mommy, why can’t I pause the TV?”
                            Ava, age 5
50
50
1. Control is shifting
51
52
53




     http://www.newyorker.com/humor/issuecartoons/2011/05/16/cartoons_20110509#slide=1
54
55
2. We’re moving from atoms to bits
 56
57
58

      However...

     “ For the 79% of
       Americans who
       are online, in
       addition to
       Americans
       ages 18-39, the
       internet ranks
       as a top source
       of information
       for most of the
       local subjects
       studied in the
       survey.”
59




     “The
old
model
of
journalism
involved
news

     organizations
taking
revenue
from
one

     social
transaction
—
the
selling
of
real

     estate,
cars
and
groceries
or
job
hunting,
for

     example,
—
and
using
it
to
monitor
civic
life

     —
covering
city
councils
and
zoning

     commissions
and
conducting
watchdog

     investigations.”
3. We’re moving from real time to my time
 60
61
4. We’re routing around
 62


hierarchies
63
64
5. We’re always on, always connected
 65
66
67


     “Publicy
will
replace
privacy.
Privacy
will
appear
quaint,
like
wearing
gloves
and

     veils
in
church.”
—Stowe Boyd, social networks specialist, analyst, activist, blogger, futurist
     and researcher; president of Microsyntax.org, a non-profit and director of 301Works.org


     “Millennials
will
routinely
engage
in
ubiquitous
social
networking,
having
seen

     that
competitive
edge
it
brings
them
in
business
and
politics.
It
will
be
the
norm

     in
personal
relationships.
I
wish
I
could
keep
up
with
them.”
—Craig Newmark,
     founder and customer service representative, Craigslist, former software engineer and
     programmer at companies such as JustInTime Solutions, Bank of America and IBM


     “They
will
not
have
grown
out
of
being
ambient
broadcasters,
because
being

     ambient
broadcasters
will
have
become
the
norm
when
they
are
totally
in

     charge.”
—Jeff Branzburg, consultant with Teaching Matters, Inc.




          Quote Source: http://www.pewinternet.org/~/media//Files/Reports/2010/PIP_Future_of_Internet_%202010_social_relations.pdf
68
69
6. All media is now social
70
71
72
7. “Knowing” is now a group activity
 73
74
75
8. All jobs are now “digital”
 76
77

     “The gross revenues of the third-party gaming services
     industry were approximately $3.0 billion in 2009, most of
     which was captured in the developing countries where
     these services were produced. In comparison, the global
     coffee market, on which many developing countries are
     highly dependent, was worth over $70 billion—but only $5.5
     billion was captured by the developing countries that
     produced the coffee beans. This suggests that the virtual
     economy can have a significant impact on local economies
     despite its modest size.”
78




education next
teaching and learning in the digital age
79




     “In 2008, Americans consumed
     information for about 1.3 trillion
     hours, an average of almost 12
     hours per day. Consumption
     totaled 3.6 zettabytes and 10,845
     trillion words, corresponding to
     100,500 words and 34 gigabytes for
     an average person on an average
     day.”
     Source: How Much Information? 2009 Report on American Consumers.
     Bohn and Short, 2009
80




     “Students starting school this year may be part of the last generation for
     which ‘going to college’ means packing up, getting a dorm room, and
     listening to tenured professors, Undergraduate education is on the verge
     of a radical reordering. Colleges, like newspapers, will be torn apart by
     new ways of sharing information enabled by the Internet.”
                             A Virtual Revolution is Brewing for Colleges. Zephyr Teachout. September 13, 2009
81




     “While some may see at this the end of the great college era, it is, in
     reality, the beginning of an entirely new opportunity. Over the coming
     years we will be witnessing the grand transformation of colleges and
     universities.”
                             Rethinking Colleges from the Ground Up. Thomas Frey. February 25th, 2011
82
83
84
85
86
87
88




     http://www.inside.iastate.edu/2004/1008/enrollment.shtml
89




 Source: National Association of Colleges and Employers Job Outlook 2011
90




     http://www.insideworkplacewellness.com/2011/03/ten-workplace-trends-that-are-impacting.html
91




     “It’s always been about the talent. And in the
     future, that will be even more critical as agencies
     will be staffed with a new breed of listeners,
     students of the human condition, data
     interpreters, and idea nurturers.”
                                               Lisa Donohue, CEO, Publicis Groupe’s Starcom USA
                                               (Advertising Age, “What the Media Agency of the
                                               Future Will Look Like,” September 2010




                225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
92


lifelong
experiential
accelerated
developmental
individual
networked
93




Approach to date*


        or          or




                         *with some exceptions
94



                                 Digital




     Analysts   IP    Computer             Electronic   Writers   Designers
                       Science             Engineers



                                                        Liberal
 Business       Law   Science        Engineering                  Design
                                                         Arts
95
     Technology
        enables
         people
96




     “You
ain't
seen
nothing
yet.”

     —Fred Hapgood, technology author and consultant, moderator of the Nanosystems
     Interest Group at MIT in the 1990s, writes for Wired, Discover and other tech
     publications




       Quote Source: http://www.pewinternet.org/~/media//Files/Reports/2010/PIP_Future_of_Internet_%202010_social_relations.pdf
97




let’s talk!
scarton@ubalt.edu

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Defining Digital: Communications, Commerce, and Culture 3.0

  • 1. 1 digital: beyond the hype 10.04.2011
  • 2. 2 “The future is already here--it’s just not very evenly distributed.” William Gibson
  • 3. 3 Gartner Group “Hype Cycle” http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_tWgSlpwB5zc/TSFCNyjoonI/AAAAAAAAC9A/ND5neOEMTnc/s1600/Hype%2Bcycle.jpg
  • 4. 4
  • 5. 5 The Internet: nearly everyone, nearly everywhere
  • 7. 7 connecting disintermediating decoupling remixing processing
  • 8. 8 connecting
  • 9. 9 Marshal McLuhan “The medium is the message.” Media: a technology that affects society not by its content but by its characteristics. 225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
  • 10. 10 no “content”... ...but has social effect 225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
  • 11. 11 “media” Sender information or data Receiver 225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
  • 12. 11 “mass media” Receiver a ta n or d r m atio info Sender information or data Receiver info rma tion or d ata Receiver 225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
  • 13. 12 social: the interaction of humans with other humans media: technology used to store and deliver information or data 225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
  • 14. 13 social media Participant or data n rm atio info Participant information or data Participant infor mati on o r dat a Participant 225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
  • 15. 14 Social Media: technologies that facilitate conversations 225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
  • 16. 15 A (somewhat incomplete) Timeline of Social Media not to scale USENET 1979 listserv Napster flickr 1986 1999 2004 pneumatic post 1865 SecondLife 2003 postal service Persia, 550BC The Palace Wikipedia radio ARPANET twitter 1994 2001 1891 1969 2006 The WELL Facebook 1985 Friendster 2003 2002 @ MySpace YouTube email Third Voice 2003 2005 1966 BBS IRC 1999 1978 1988 telephone del.icio.us ~1890 2003 telegraph France, 1792 MUD1 Blogger 1978 1999 CompuServe MoveOn 1969 1998 digg epinions 2004 1999 225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
  • 17. oral 16 tradition printing telegraph radio TV Internet media reach backchannel disruption audience response reach 225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com time
  • 18. 17 disintermediating 225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
  • 19. 18 p t c smith, 1483
  • 20. 19 c c c p p t d c p c c factory worker, 1860 c
  • 21. 20 c c c p t c c digital creator, 2010 c c
  • 22. 21 $5,972 $3,497 $59,704 smith, 1483 factory worker, 1860 web designer, 2010 all salary numbers adjusted to 2010 dollars
  • 23. 22 decoupling
  • 24. 23
  • 25. 24
  • 26. 25 remixing
  • 27. 26 miles davis, France, 1967
  • 28. 27
  • 29. 28
  • 30. 29 this changes everything...
  • 31. 30
  • 32. 31
  • 33. 31
  • 34. 32 processing
  • 35. 33 http://www.krcadinac.com/turing.html
  • 36. 34
  • 37. 35
  • 38. 36
  • 39. 37
  • 40. 38
  • 41. 39 why now? changes in communication, commerce, and culture
  • 43. 41 Total US Music Sales Source: http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/02/news/companies/napster_music_industry/
  • 44. 42
  • 45. 43 Global e-Book Sales Figures http://idpf.org/about-us/industry-statistics#Additional_Global_eBook_Sales_Figures
  • 46. 44 Advertising budget priorities shifting.... source: http://www.netx.com/blog/displayads/display-advertising/
  • 48. 46 Local advertising spending Local advertising spending shifting to digital source: http://theadzdr.com/2010/03/local-online-advertising/
  • 49. 47 source: http://lifehacker.com/5482227/what-do-you-buy-online-vs-in- stores
  • 50. 48 DRAFT digital: impact
  • 51. 49 “Mommy, why can’t I pause the TV?” Ava, age 5
  • 52. 50
  • 53. 50
  • 54. 1. Control is shifting 51
  • 55. 52
  • 56. 53 http://www.newyorker.com/humor/issuecartoons/2011/05/16/cartoons_20110509#slide=1
  • 57. 54
  • 58. 55
  • 59. 2. We’re moving from atoms to bits 56
  • 60. 57
  • 61. 58 However... “ For the 79% of Americans who are online, in addition to Americans ages 18-39, the internet ranks as a top source of information for most of the local subjects studied in the survey.”
  • 62. 59 “The
old
model
of
journalism
involved
news
 organizations
taking
revenue
from
one
 social
transaction
—
the
selling
of
real
 estate,
cars
and
groceries
or
job
hunting,
for
 example,
—
and
using
it
to
monitor
civic
life
 —
covering
city
councils
and
zoning
 commissions
and
conducting
watchdog
 investigations.”
  • 63. 3. We’re moving from real time to my time 60
  • 64. 61
  • 65. 4. We’re routing around 62 hierarchies
  • 66. 63
  • 67. 64
  • 68. 5. We’re always on, always connected 65
  • 69. 66
  • 70. 67 “Publicy
will
replace
privacy.
Privacy
will
appear
quaint,
like
wearing
gloves
and
 veils
in
church.”
—Stowe Boyd, social networks specialist, analyst, activist, blogger, futurist and researcher; president of Microsyntax.org, a non-profit and director of 301Works.org “Millennials
will
routinely
engage
in
ubiquitous
social
networking,
having
seen
 that
competitive
edge
it
brings
them
in
business
and
politics.
It
will
be
the
norm
 in
personal
relationships.
I
wish
I
could
keep
up
with
them.”
—Craig Newmark, founder and customer service representative, Craigslist, former software engineer and programmer at companies such as JustInTime Solutions, Bank of America and IBM “They
will
not
have
grown
out
of
being
ambient
broadcasters,
because
being
 ambient
broadcasters
will
have
become
the
norm
when
they
are
totally
in
 charge.”
—Jeff Branzburg, consultant with Teaching Matters, Inc. Quote Source: http://www.pewinternet.org/~/media//Files/Reports/2010/PIP_Future_of_Internet_%202010_social_relations.pdf
  • 71. 68
  • 72. 69
  • 73. 6. All media is now social 70
  • 74. 71
  • 75. 72
  • 76. 7. “Knowing” is now a group activity 73
  • 77. 74
  • 78. 75
  • 79. 8. All jobs are now “digital” 76
  • 80. 77 “The gross revenues of the third-party gaming services industry were approximately $3.0 billion in 2009, most of which was captured in the developing countries where these services were produced. In comparison, the global coffee market, on which many developing countries are highly dependent, was worth over $70 billion—but only $5.5 billion was captured by the developing countries that produced the coffee beans. This suggests that the virtual economy can have a significant impact on local economies despite its modest size.”
  • 81. 78 education next teaching and learning in the digital age
  • 82. 79 “In 2008, Americans consumed information for about 1.3 trillion hours, an average of almost 12 hours per day. Consumption totaled 3.6 zettabytes and 10,845 trillion words, corresponding to 100,500 words and 34 gigabytes for an average person on an average day.” Source: How Much Information? 2009 Report on American Consumers. Bohn and Short, 2009
  • 83. 80 “Students starting school this year may be part of the last generation for which ‘going to college’ means packing up, getting a dorm room, and listening to tenured professors, Undergraduate education is on the verge of a radical reordering. Colleges, like newspapers, will be torn apart by new ways of sharing information enabled by the Internet.” A Virtual Revolution is Brewing for Colleges. Zephyr Teachout. September 13, 2009
  • 84. 81 “While some may see at this the end of the great college era, it is, in reality, the beginning of an entirely new opportunity. Over the coming years we will be witnessing the grand transformation of colleges and universities.” Rethinking Colleges from the Ground Up. Thomas Frey. February 25th, 2011
  • 85. 82
  • 86. 83
  • 87. 84
  • 88. 85
  • 89. 86
  • 90. 87
  • 91. 88 http://www.inside.iastate.edu/2004/1008/enrollment.shtml
  • 92. 89 Source: National Association of Colleges and Employers Job Outlook 2011
  • 93. 90 http://www.insideworkplacewellness.com/2011/03/ten-workplace-trends-that-are-impacting.html
  • 94. 91 “It’s always been about the talent. And in the future, that will be even more critical as agencies will be staffed with a new breed of listeners, students of the human condition, data interpreters, and idea nurturers.” Lisa Donohue, CEO, Publicis Groupe’s Starcom USA (Advertising Age, “What the Media Agency of the Future Will Look Like,” September 2010 225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com
  • 96. 93 Approach to date* or or *with some exceptions
  • 97. 94 Digital Analysts IP Computer Electronic Writers Designers Science Engineers Liberal Business Law Science Engineering Design Arts
  • 98. 95 Technology enables people
  • 99. 96 “You
ain't
seen
nothing
yet.”
 —Fred Hapgood, technology author and consultant, moderator of the Nanosystems Interest Group at MIT in the 1990s, writes for Wired, Discover and other tech publications Quote Source: http://www.pewinternet.org/~/media//Files/Reports/2010/PIP_Future_of_Internet_%202010_social_relations.pdf

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