Technology fads: Weighing risks and benefits
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The document summarizes Martin Walker's workshop on fads in information technology. It discusses how new technologies and methods are often labeled as magic or revolutionary before their true impacts and limitations are known. It provides blockchain, agile development, and digital transformation as examples of concepts that have been adopted as fads in some cases. The document emphasizes the importance of questioning new solutions, understanding the problems they aim to address, and having evidence that they are better than alternatives rather than blindly trusting proponents of new technologies.
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Technology fads: Weighing risks and benefits
- 1. Fads in Information Technology Workshop Martin Walker Chicago August 9th 2018
- 2. www.cebma.org Martin Walker Director for Banking and Finance at CEBMA m.walker@cebma.org • 20+ Years Experience in IT in Banks, Software Companies & Fintech • Currently Work in product management for a major financial software company • MSc in Computing Science from Imperial College, London • Papers and articles about Financial Sector Technology • First book on Fintech published later this year
- 3. Fads in Information Technology Workshop MAGIC
- 4. www.cebma.org Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. Arthur C. Clarke (1973)
- 5. www.cebma.org Let’s Learn Some Magic Words (Part 1) BOTs Robotic Process Automation Blockchain Machine Learning Distributed Ledger Smart Contracts Cloud
- 6. www.cebma.org Let’s Learn Some Magic Words (Part 2) RDBMS Program Distributed Database Message BusAlgorithm Distributed System
- 7. www.cebma.org The Truth Behind the Magic The Universal Machine Modern computer based on the ideas of Alan Turning. A machine that could be instructed to perform any task by giving it the right set of instructions Turing Complete Languages Programming tools that can instruct a Universal Machine to compute anything that can be computed. Some software tools are not Turning Complete but they are created using Turing Complete Languages
- 8. www.cebma.org The Truth Behind the Magic Computers give you the potential to do anything within the laws of nature and subject to having sufficient time, processing power, memory but also subject to… …people to write programmes with sufficient skill, intelligence, imagination and understanding. Not to mention people can set the IT people off in the right direction.
- 11. Can you Question Software Development? www.cebma.org Trust me , I’m a software engineer. Trust me , I’m a computer scientist.
- 12. Some People think New Technology should not be Questioned www.cebma.org Trust me , I’m a thought leader.
- 13. www.cebma.org Let’s Make You into A Computer Expert Algorithm Processing Data Input Output
- 14. www.cebma.org Let’s Make You into A Computer Expert Algorithm Input Output
- 15. www.cebma.org Questions to Ask • Do you know what the problem you are trying to solve is or the objective aimed for? • Is it worth solving the problem? • Is it clear what the solution is? • Is it clear how the technology with solve the problem? • What is the evidence that the solution works? • What is the evidence it is better than alternatives? • How do I test a new solution where there is no evidence?
- 16. www.cebma.org Exercise = Sample Solutions (possibly fads) A Technology – “Blockchain” A Method of Implementing IT – “Agile” The All Encompassing Solution – “Digital”
- 17. www.cebma.org Blockchain (Part 1) Blockchain technology is a distributed ledger. It allows for the permanent and immutable transparent recording of data, essentially, and transactions specifically. That can be used to exchange any number of things that have value, whether that’s an actual item [or something else]. It could be tea leaves making their way to the final tea maker. Or it could be me sending you a payment person to person without the need for intermediaries.
- 18. www.cebma.org Blockchain (part 2) In distributed ledger technology, we may be witnessing one of those potential explosions of creative potential that catalyse exceptional levels of innovation. The technology could prove to have the capacity to deliver a new kind of trust to a wide range of services. As we have seen open data revolutionise the citizen’s relationship with the state, so may the visibility in these technologies reform our financial markets, supply chains, consumer and business-to-business services, and publicly-held registers The Claims The Evidence Key Practices • 1500 cryptocurrencies • Ethereum • Ethereum Classic • Ethereum Enterprise • Fabric • Corda • XRP • Hundreds of ICOs • + many, many more The Types • Blocks • Mining • Proof of Work • De-centralised • Cryptocurrency • Public Networks All of which have been dropped to varying degrees in new versions Our analysis suggests that distributed ledger technology could reduce banks’ infrastructure costs attributable to cross-border payments, securities trading and regulatory compliance by between $15-20 billion per annum by 2022
- 20. www.cebma.org Agile (part 2) Paired Programming Story Boards Test Driven Development Frequent Code Deliveries Co-Location Burn Up Charts Working Software Show Casing Continuous Integration Velocity Story Points Daily Stand-Ups Time Boxing Shared Codebase Agile innovation methods have revolutionized information technology. Over the past 25 to 30 years they have greatly increased success rates in software development, improved quality and speed to market, and boosted the motivation and productivity of IT teams. The Claims The Practices The Evidence The Variations • Scrum • Xtreme Programming • Adaptive Software Development • Crystal • Feature-Driven Development • Pragmatic Programming. Lean Development • Etc..
- 21. www.cebma.org Digital (part 1) Ambitious Definition Technologies and concepts that can be grouped under the term “Digital” in the context of banking include Apps, Blockchain, Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Agile, Fintech, Innovation, Analytics, Disruption, Machine Learning, “tailored customer service”, “Robo Advisor”, APIs and “Digital Factory”. At first “Digital”, as a label, filled a very real gap. How to describe all the various methods by which people could electronically interact with financial institutions (or firms in general), Telephone, Computer, Smart Phone, Tablet? The commonly adopted word was “Digital”. Muddled Definition Modest Definition
- 22. www.cebma.org Digital (part 2) The Claims & Evidence Government Between 2012 and 2016, the Government managed to save a massive £3.9bn by making better use of technology. In the financial 2014/15 year alone, the Government saw a fall of £391m in spending thanks to the spend controls group, which encourages teams to separate out IT contracts and build prototypes instead of writing long procurement documentation. Commerce ..for GE, cloud-based processes are set to boost productivity even more. “Going forward, it's going to be important to become a digital industrial, and it's the cloud that enables it,” says Mr Fowler. “By 2020 we will drive $1bn of industrial productivity into the business and we will grow a $15bn digital business with digital products and services.” The problem with the word “Digital” which logically applies to all computers, it that it becoming attached to every new technology, old technology and fad like a holy blessing to justify IT investment
- 23. www.cebma.org Ask Questions But also remember to ask yourself the key questions, What are you trying to achieve and is it worth it? Do not be embarrassed to ask the right questions and keep asking them if you do not get an answer.
- 24. www.cebma.org None of the ideas described are inherently bad but all that it takes to make even a credible idea into a fad is people just switch off their brains and stop thinking. Final Thought
Notas do Editor
- IT and many forms of technology can seem like “magic” to the non-technical because they do amazing things, most people do not understand how they do amazing things and If they do amazing things reliably they don’t need to worry how they work
- Yes magic. I want the simple solutions to all my problems, just like the Smart phone simply solves the problem of what to do while eating dinner with your spouse Non-technical people want Technology solutions that hlpe then make more money, cut costs etc. Technical people are just as keen to here about the latest technologies and how they will solve all problems
- IT and many forms of technology can seem like “magic” to the non-technical because they do amazing things, most people do not understand how they do amazing things and If they do amazing things reliably they don’t need to worry how they work
- First interaction. Lets learn some magic words to defend against the dark arts of out of control costs, corrupt middle men, limits of human reasoning ability. How has heard of at least some of the above? Hands up. Keep them up if what you have heard about them is amazing. Keep your hands up if anything has satisfactory explained to you either how they work or even how they solve problems. Thank you hands down.
- These are some old magic words, which have lost some of their power. The power of many of the new magic words is based on them being better than the old magic words. Any volunteer willing to explain why an App or a Smart Contract is better than a programme?
- Now do believe in the magic of IT. There is a magical quality in nature of computers, programming tools and the software created. They can be used for anything..
- Big But. You need people. This is why IT can simultaneously be amazing and hugely disappointing. If you have worked in IT for a few decades you will have noticed cycles of enthusiasm and deep cynicism. Poor old programmers seem to have their role re-named every few years to make it sound more exciting during the hype cycle. Programmer not exciting enough, you are now a developer Not cool enough, you are now a “coder” and since you are now a coder you have better grow a beard and get me a flat white.
- During the hype, everything is great, everything is an advance making things, quicker, faster, cheaper, Every new idea is a good idea, regardless of whether it is really new, really good or even really an idea as opposed to a vague feeling progress is relentless and you have better not get in its way.
- The rest of the time everything sucks. We seem to have reached an interesting point where everything labelled as innovative and disruptive and everything else sucks.
- So can the non-technical world question new innovative/disruptive ideas while being a little more objective about the other IT stuff? Not always easy to ask questions from any technical specialist but you have to because non-technical people are continually being asked to make decisions relevant to IT,
- In the periods of hype, there is not just the technical/non-technical barrier, there are armies of people whose role is stop you asking questions. Some are the genuine enthusiasts who genuinely believe in new technologies, often a touch too religiously and sometimes devoid from any real-world context. Then there are large number of people making a great deal of money selling and propating hype. Many of whom have little idea what is they are selling. 100,000 thought leaders on Linked
- Step 1- I am going to making you into more an expert on computing than the typical thought leader in 5 minutes…These are the magic words are going to learn First lets talk about them in the abstract, then lets talk about pancakes
- So you can think of the inputs as ingredients The algorithm as a recipe The processing, following the rules of the algorithm as the cooking The pancake as the output What data is there… Well that where the digital and physical worlds diverge a little. Data doesn’t get used up. It can be deleted (even from a Blockchain) so lets The inputs are data, the outputs are data, and even the algorithm can be thought of data.
- Now you are a computing expert, we move onto the typically questions you really need to ask both yourself and others. You will notice they are basically the same questions from Evidence-Based Management So now lets try using them…