The presentation of the CESAB group LOLA-BMS at the 2016 french ecology conference in the FRB-CESAB session "Using a treasury of knowledge to tackle complex ecological questions." Presented by Reto Schmucki.

1. How local-scale processes build up
the large-scale response of butterflies
to global changes
Reto Schmucki
retoschm@ceh.ac.uk
NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Sorbonne Universités, MNHN-CNRS-UPMC
LOLA-BMS

2. LOLA-BMS’ Aims
1. Examine butterfly response to global change
2. Relate local trends and species status to large scale
distribution across Europe
3. Develop robust methods to conduct integrative analyses
across scales
© C. van Swaay

3. Butterfly range shift
Predicting Species distribution/ bioclimate modelling
Ringlet
Aphantopus hyperantus
Scenario 2050Currenthttps://doi.org/10.3897/biorisk.1

4. Butterfly range shift
Nature, 399, 579–583.

5. Butterfly tracking climate
Nature Climate Change, 2, 121–124.

6. Sharing, Collaborating and
Capacity Building
• Building a central database for high quality
Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (BMS) data
• Develop and apply robust methods to
standardize across National Schemes
• Increase collaboration across schemes

7. BMS approach
Butterfly Monitoring Scheme
• First UK scheme set up 1976
• C. 2500 transects (1200 active)
• 768,780 km of butterfly transects
walked (equivalent to a trip to the
Moon).
© Chris Van Swaay

8. BMS Method
© Jörg Roloff UFZ
Since 1990 more than 9200 transects have been counted at least one year,
more than 4500 of them in 2015.
© Guy Pe’er

9. The LOLA-BMS group
Romain Julliard (PI) FR
Guy Pe'er (co-PI) Israel
Jofre Carnicer ES
Mikko Kuussaari FI
Janne Heliölä FI
Elisabeth Kühn DE
Tom Oliver UK
Martin Musche DE
Leslie Ries USA
David Roy UK
Constanti Stefanescu ES
Josef Settele DE
Oliver Schweiger DE
Arco Van Strien NL
Chris Van Swaay NL

10. LOLA-BMS dataset
European BMS in LOLA-BMS
UK 1976
The Netherlands 1990
Catalonia 1994
Finland 1999
France 2005
Germany 2005
Since 1995
3, 758 Transects
2, 089, 789 Observations
251 Species

11. Abundance index
Before 2015, no standardized methods was
used to estimate abundance across BMS
© Neil Hulme

12. Regional GAM approach
adapted from Dennis et al. 2013
1. Fit a generalized additive model
across multiple transects to capture
the seasonal pattern in the flight
curve
2. Predict missing counts
3. Calculate the area under the curve
from the observed and imputed
counts (full season) Dennis, E.B., Freeman, S.N., Brereton, T. & Roy, D.B. (2013)
Indexing butterfly abundance whilst accounting for missing
counts and variability in seasonal pattern.
Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 4, 637–645.
gam(COUNT ~ s(WEEK) + SITE)

13. Regional GAM approach
Former
Improved
Schmucki, R., et al. (2016). Journal of Applied Ecology, 53,
501–510.

14. Regional GAM approach
• R Package - regionalGAM – Compute abundance index with the
regional GAM approach developed for Butterfly Monitoring Schemes
(BMS) https://github.com/RetoSchmucki/regionalGAM

15. Range shift
Butterfly site occupancy

16. Ψ : Probability of occupancy
φ : Probability of survival
γ : Probability of colonization
Observation model
Ecological model
?
Model 33 Species
Range shift
Butterfly site occupancy

17. Site occupancy change
60o N
50o N
40o N
+ 0.20 oC
+ 0.10 oC
0.00 oC
- 0.10 oC
April-September
Mean temperature
Change per year
(2006-2014)
14
15
4
7.6 km/y
7.9 km/y
9.8 km/y
2
3
2
• 14 & 15 species show
northward shift in their core
and northern front (75th
percentile) distribution
• 4 species show northward
shift in their southern tail
(25th percentile)
• 2 species show southward
shift in their core, northern
and southern distribution
Out of 33 species

18. Change in local occupancy
present
absent
2011-20142007-2010
Longitude (EPGS: 3035)
Longitude(EPGS:3035)
Papilio machaon
6.7 km of the northern Margin ???

19. Local processes masking
northern expansion
Percentage of site Number of site
Latitude(EPGS:3025)
Change from 2007-2010 to 2011-2014
Papilio machaon

20. Local processes masking
northern expansion
Percentage of site Number of site
Latitude(EPGS:3025)
Change from 2007-2010 to 2011-2014 - Papilio machaon
1. Northward Expansion
2. Higher extinction in
the core of its
distribution
3. Persistence in the
south.
1.
2.
3.

21. Importance of land use
habitat loss as local driver
• Species’ habitat
relationship has the
largest effect on local
trends
• Climate (temperature)
is the second most
important driver
influencing local
trends
Climate
Habitat
Dr. Oliver Schweiger
UFZ - Halle

22. Inter-specific variation
Responses to arid weather are associated with the climatic niche of species
(as assessed by their Species Aridity Index ,SAI)
SAI = 0.68
c
SAI = 1.62
d
e
a b
Dr. Tom H. Oliver
Reading University

23. © C. van Swaay
The Future of LOLA-BMS

24. Major outcomes
• Shift happens, but together with the impact of
local land use change.
• Response to climate change are species specific
with evidence for local adaptation
• European BMS database (eBMS) - a project that
is growing

25. 1. Audusseau, H., Le Vaillant, M., Janz, N., Nylin, S., Karlsson, B. & Schmucki, R. (2016) Species
range expansion constrains the ecological niches of resident butterflies. Journal of
Biogeography. (available in early view) DOI: 10.1111/jbi.12787
2. Olivier, T., Schmucki, R., Fontaine, B., Villemey, A. & Archaux, F. (2015) Butterfly assemblages
in residential gardens are driven by species’ habitat preference and mobility. Landscape
Ecology, 31, 865–876. DOI: 10.1007/s10980-015-0299-9.
3. Schmucki, R., Pe’er, G., Roy, D.B., Stefanescu, C., Van Swaay, C.A.M., Oliver, T.H., Kuussaari,
M., Van Strien, A.J., Ries, L., Settele, J., Musche, M., Carnicer, J., Schweiger, O., Brereton,
T.M., Harpke, A., Heliölä, J., Kühn, E. & Julliard, R. (2016) A regionally informed abundance
index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes. Journal of Applied
Ecology, 53, 501–510. DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12561.
Published

26. In preparation
1. Pellissier, V., R. Schmucki, G. Pe'er, A. Aunins, T. Brereton, L. Brotons, J. Carnicer, T. Chodkiewicz, P. Chylarecki,
J.C. del Moral, V. Escandell, R. Foppen, A. Harpke, H. Heldbjerg, J. Heliölä, S. Herrando, M. Kuussaari, E. Kühn, A.
Lehikoinen, Å. Lindström, M. Musche, D. Noble, T.H. Oliver, J. Reif, D.B. Roy, O. Schweiger, J. Settele, C.
Stefanescu, N. Teufelbauer, S. Trautmann, A. J. van Strien, C.A.M. van Swaay, C. van Turnhout, Z. Vermouzek, P.
Voříšek, F. Jiguet, R. Julliard. The role of Natura 2000 for non-target species: Assessment using volunteer-based
biodiversity monitoring of birds and butterflies. (in final preparation – to be submitted in November 2016 to
Conservation Biology)
2. Oliver, T.H., Schmucki, R., Pe’er, G., Roy, D.B., Stefanescu, C., Van Swaay, C.A.M., Kuussaari, M., Van Strien,
A.J., Ries, L., Settele, J., Musche, M., Carnicer, J., Schweiger, O., Brereton, T.M., Harpke, A., Heliölä, J., Kühn, E.
& Julliard, R. Intra- and inter- specific differentiation in European butterfly responses to weather. (in preparation – to
be submitted in October 2016 to Nature Climate Change)
3. Schmucki, R., Pe’er, G., Roy, D.B., Stefanescu, C., Van Swaay, C.A.M., Oliver, T.H., Kuussaari, M., Van Strien,
A.J., Ries, L., Settele, J., Musche, M., Carnicer, J., Schweiger, O., Brereton, T.M., Harpke, A., Heliölä, J., Kühn, E.
& Julliard, R. Range-shift and changing colonization-persistence rates at the northern edge of European butterflies’
distribution. (in preparation – to be submitted in January 2017 to Global Ecology and Biogeography).
4. Schweiger, O., Schmucki, R., Pe’er, G., Roy, D.B., Stefanescu, C., Van Swaay, C.A.M., Oliver, T.H., Kuussaari, M.,
Van Strien, A.J., Ries, L., Settele, J., Musche, M., Carnicer, J., Brereton, T.M., Harpke, A., Heliölä, J., Kühn, E. &
Julliard, R. Geographic variability in the relative importance of global change drivers across Europe. (in preparation
– to be submitted mid 2017 to Biological Conservation).
5. Pe’er G., Haack N., Schmucki R. & Stefanescu C. Butterfly Monitoring in Israel: Results of the first 6 years. (in
preparation – to be submitted in 2017 to Journal of Insect Conservation).
6. Schmucki, R., Larsen, E., Lehbun, G., Accounting for phenology improves estimation of pollinator services derived
from citizen science data. (in preparation – to be submitted in early 2017).

27. Thank you CESAB - FRB
Baptiste Laporte Magali Grana
Eric Garnier
Claire Salomon
Alison Specht

28. Thank you LOLA

29. A special thank goes to all BMS
volunteers across Europe
© Jörg Roloff UFZ