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Technical and Behavioral Global Asset Allocation Model (MATC)
GOAL : ASSET ALLOCATION FOR AN EVOLVING WORLD ,[object Object]
Goal: Capital appreciation and preservation for various risk profiles.
Approach: Diversified and systematic management based upon trend following technical and behavioral indicators.
Tool: Responsive management by a daily dynamic adjustment of the exposure for the different markets depending on the ‘Momentum’ and on the global behavioral state (Market sentiment, risk aversion, excess).2
DIVERSIFICATION DOES NOT PROTECT AGAINST LOSS 3 Source : Pimco
ACTIVE MANAGEMENT OF EXPOSURE : PEDAGOGIC EXAMPLE ,[object Object],     If in September 2001 an investor allocated 100$ in the Euro Stoxx 50, he would have preserved a the a total of 59,6 $ on the 20th Aug 2011. If he had applied a strategy of hedging following the medium term trend he would have capitalized 115,7 $. 4
ACTIVE MANAGEMENT OF EXPOSURE : OPTIMIZE THE ASSET ALLOCATION MIX The modern management should be responsive. Flexibility is key in today’s rapidly transforming global economy. ,[object Object]
The MATC is used for both hedging and temporary overexposure on the rate risk, on equities and commodities risks based upon the market opportunities.
The MATC shift from the technical to the behavioral analysis when the market is emotionally driven. Major trend change are occurring at points of wild volatility and extreme fear. In this context, technical indicators are meaningless and the only reliable type of indicator to predict a market reversal would be sentiment based.5
MATC PRESENTATION (I)      The ‘MATC’ adjust progressively the exposure to the right global risks “beta” across asset classes depending on a state matrix based upon :  ,[object Object],6
MATC PRESENTATION (II) ,[object Object],7
MATC PRESENTATION (III)  There are many possibilities of use for various asset classes and products: In the frame of  a fund of funds management process by maintaining the investments in the funds stable and a daily adjustment of the exposition to the model using index futures. Thanks to this process, we can capture the additional  return potential  “alpha” generated by the selected asset managers, we are able to integrate strategic and tactical views and to optimize the right global risks  “beta”  across asset classes.  Using only index futures as systematic global macro funds. 8
MATC PRESENTATION (IV) 3 Backtests using only 9 index futures for 3 different risks profiles : ,[object Object]
MATC Global Balanced Profile (Volatility expected 9%, Drawdown max 6%)
MATC Global Cautious Profile (Volatility expected 5%, Drawdown max 4%)9
Backtest MATC Global Dynamic Profile (I) Historical allocation suggested by the MATC Global Dynamic Profile : 10
Backtest MATC Global Dynamic Profile (II) 11
Backtest MATC Global Dynamic Profile (III) 12 ,[object Object],[object Object]
Backtest MATC Global Balanced Profile (I) Historical allocation suggested by the MATC Global Balanced Profile : 14
Backtest MATC Global Balanced Profile (II) 15
Backtest MATC Global Balanced Profile (III) 16 ,[object Object],[object Object]
Backtest MATC Global Cautious Profile (I) Historical allocation suggested by the MATC Global Cautious Profile : 18

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Technical and behavioral Global Asset Allocation Model

  • 1. Technical and Behavioral Global Asset Allocation Model (MATC)
  • 2.
  • 3. Goal: Capital appreciation and preservation for various risk profiles.
  • 4. Approach: Diversified and systematic management based upon trend following technical and behavioral indicators.
  • 5. Tool: Responsive management by a daily dynamic adjustment of the exposure for the different markets depending on the ‘Momentum’ and on the global behavioral state (Market sentiment, risk aversion, excess).2
  • 6. DIVERSIFICATION DOES NOT PROTECT AGAINST LOSS 3 Source : Pimco
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. The MATC is used for both hedging and temporary overexposure on the rate risk, on equities and commodities risks based upon the market opportunities.
  • 10. The MATC shift from the technical to the behavioral analysis when the market is emotionally driven. Major trend change are occurring at points of wild volatility and extreme fear. In this context, technical indicators are meaningless and the only reliable type of indicator to predict a market reversal would be sentiment based.5
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. MATC PRESENTATION (III) There are many possibilities of use for various asset classes and products: In the frame of a fund of funds management process by maintaining the investments in the funds stable and a daily adjustment of the exposition to the model using index futures. Thanks to this process, we can capture the additional return potential “alpha” generated by the selected asset managers, we are able to integrate strategic and tactical views and to optimize the right global risks “beta” across asset classes. Using only index futures as systematic global macro funds. 8
  • 14.
  • 15. MATC Global Balanced Profile (Volatility expected 9%, Drawdown max 6%)
  • 16. MATC Global Cautious Profile (Volatility expected 5%, Drawdown max 4%)9
  • 17. Backtest MATC Global Dynamic Profile (I) Historical allocation suggested by the MATC Global Dynamic Profile : 10
  • 18. Backtest MATC Global Dynamic Profile (II) 11
  • 19.
  • 20. Backtest MATC Global Balanced Profile (I) Historical allocation suggested by the MATC Global Balanced Profile : 14
  • 21. Backtest MATC Global Balanced Profile (II) 15
  • 22.
  • 23. Backtest MATC Global Cautious Profile (I) Historical allocation suggested by the MATC Global Cautious Profile : 18
  • 24. Backtest MATC Global Cautious Profile (II) 19
  • 25.
  • 26. SYNTHESIS An efficient model: No process of optimization was used during the conception of the model. A combination of two complementary approaches: The technical and the behavioral analysis. Many possibilities of use for a flexible and dynamic asset management process. 22
  • 27. CONTACT 23 Amine Bennis Global quantitative fund manager and structurer of diversified portfolios Tel : +33 (0)7 88 00 34 72 Mail : amine__bennis@hotmail.com Adress : 109 Rue de Rennes, 75006, Paris Profile : http://www.linkedin.com/in/aminebennis