Connecting to the Crowd
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The document discusses the concept of crowd wisdom, where large groups of people can collectively arrive at accurate conclusions. It provides examples like estimating the weight of an ox or number of jelly beans in a jar. Crowd wisdom is now being applied online through platforms like Wikipedia, prediction markets, crowdfunding, and crowdsourcing solutions. However, for a crowd to be truly wise, there needs to be diversity of opinions, independence, decentralization, and aggregation of judgments. When these conditions are met, scaling up the crowd size tends to reduce errors and provide more accurate information than any individual alone.
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Connecting to the Crowd
- 1. Connecting to the Crowd 11.08.2011 Richard von Kaufmann // co-founder // concepting director
- 2. Zipipop helps with social media guidance, marketing, analysis, concepting and collaboration.
- 3. The Wisdom of Crowds
- 4. The Wisdom of Crowds Francis Galton, 1906 Butchered weight: Average of crowd guess: 1,197 pounds Actual weight: 1,198
- 5. Jelly Bean Jar Average of 56 students=871 Actual amount=850 Only one student guessed better
- 6. Wisdom of the crowds at work
- 7. Hive Mind
- 8. Crowd-wisdom on the Web 420m unique monthly visitors 60% of web-servers run Linux 40 million monthly visitors 20 million articles 300 languages
- 9. Upside down thinking Jimmy Wales, the founder of Wikipedia, is not fond of the word crowdsoucing because the etymology of the word is related to outsourcing — which is an upside down way of looking at what is going on online. “Here is something people are trying to do — let’s help them do that. And what you get out of it in the end maybe an amazing product” Jimmy Wales, founder of Wikipedia, talking at Internet Week Europe this week.
- 10. How Google uses crowd-wisdom link = vote
- 11. Crowdfunding is a reality
- 12. A Public Art project in New York
- 13. Public votes which projects are funded
- 15. Prediction Markets In 2007, players in the Hollywood Stock Exchange correctly predicted 32 of the 39 major-category Oscar nominees and 7 out of 8 top-category winners.
- 16. Serious Business Corning, Renault, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Siemens, Masterfoods, Arcelor Mittal and other global companies are listed as Lumenogic (previously NewsFutures) customers.
- 21. Four conditions of a smart crowd: • Diversity of opinion • Independence • Decentralization • Aggregation
- 22. Diversity of Opinion • private information
- 23. Independence • not influenced by others
- 24. Decentralization • specialist, local knowledge
- 25. Aggregate • mechanism for turning private judgements into collective decisions
- 26. Scale it up • more input produces better results
- 27. information + error crowd error probability averaged = ~0 (i.e -10+50-60+20=0) “information” with reduced error
- 28. Crowdsourcing Solutions In recent years there has been a number of services showing how communities can collaboratively come up with successful solutions to problems and questions.
- 29. Web of Trust
- 30. Nokia supported crowd-rating platform
- 32. The power of intuition are New findings in cognitive science ) showing that intuition (gut feeling ensed can be thought of as “cond any experience” and in m ve circumstance s can be more effecti y. than in depth analytical stud
- 33. Rating parameters (intuition) User’s comparison to the wisdom of the crowd
- 35. How it can go wrong If the conditions are not right it can go badly wrong.
- 38. Information Cascade Group 30% better on average
- 39. The Non-conformist Imperfect information
- 40. Imperfect Information Better restaurant
- 41. Kiitos! Richard von Kaufmann Concepting Director, Co-founder puh. 045 11 222 73 s-posti: richard@zipipop.com www.zipipop.com