Cancer decreases
Asthma curves down and then up
Dementia / Septicemia / Osteoarthritis skyrockets
Examples of Cohort Effects: Number of 23-year-olds in 2020 is related to the number of 28-year-olds in 2025.
GLMM help us to capture non-linear effects through time
P-splines were used because they are well suited for modeling rates through time.
Both GLMM and P-splines provided similar results, which helps us to feel confident that our predictions are reasonable
Yaotong’s Comment: For 2D P-spline model, I think it would be better if we talk about how we utilize results in age group disaggregation to generate future predictions. What do you mean here?
GLMM help us to capture non-linear effects through time
P-splines were used because they are well suited for modeling rates through time.
Both GLMM and P-splines provided similar results, which helps us to feel confident that our predictions are reasonable
Yaotong’s Comment: For 2D P-spline model, I think it would be better if we talk about how we utilize results in age group disaggregation to generate future predictions. What do you mean here?