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Climate change and Australian Farming Systems

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Waite Research Institute
Waite Research Institute

Peter Hayman speaking at the Mannum Community Science Forum

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South Australian Murray Darling Basin NRM Board Ranges to River NRM - Community Science Forum   Farming Sustainability & Technologies  
Climate change and Australian Farming Systems Peter Hayman SARDI and Deirdre Lemerle CSU, Wagga
What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ? What can we learn from the wave about future resilience and vulnerability ?
CSIRO and Bureau of Met March 2010
Causes of climate change Causes Ocean Circulation Volcanic eruptions Solar variations Orbital variations Greenhouse gasses Feedback Clouds, Aerosols, Water vapour, Ice reflectivity, GHG
Changes to the atmosphere Changes to global climate Changes to regional climate Impacts on local natural and human systems www.stephenschneider.stanford.edu Cascading uncertainty
Role for agronomy & farming systems Changes to the atmosphere Emission scenarios Changes to global climate Global circulation models Climate Science Changes to regional climate Downscaling models Role for agronomy and farming sysgtems Impact models Impacts on local natural and human systems www.stephenschneider.stanford.edu Cascading uncertainty
Ryan et al 2010
Nurioopta Eden Valley N Lyndoch
Thinking about future climates Climate change projections from GCMS Temporal analogues – eg drought Spatial analogues – study a warmer & drier site Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline
Is this drought or aridity; drought or drying; variability or change; cycle or shift.
April to October rainfall
Sep 2000
Sep 2002
Sep 2006
Howden et al 2010

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Climate change and Australian Farming Systems

  • 1. South Australian Murray Darling Basin NRM Board Ranges to River NRM - Community Science Forum   Farming Sustainability & Technologies  
  • 2. Climate change and Australian Farming Systems Peter Hayman SARDI and Deirdre Lemerle CSU, Wagga
  • 3. What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ? What can we learn from the wave about future resilience and vulnerability ?
  • 4.
  • 5. CSIRO and Bureau of Met March 2010
  • 6.
  • 7. Causes of climate change Causes Ocean Circulation Volcanic eruptions Solar variations Orbital variations Greenhouse gasses Feedback Clouds, Aerosols, Water vapour, Ice reflectivity, GHG
  • 8. Changes to the atmosphere Changes to global climate Changes to regional climate Impacts on local natural and human systems www.stephenschneider.stanford.edu Cascading uncertainty
  • 9. Role for agronomy & farming systems Changes to the atmosphere Emission scenarios Changes to global climate Global circulation models Climate Science Changes to regional climate Downscaling models Role for agronomy and farming sysgtems Impact models Impacts on local natural and human systems www.stephenschneider.stanford.edu Cascading uncertainty
  • 10. Ryan et al 2010
  • 11.
  • 13. Thinking about future climates Climate change projections from GCMS Temporal analogues – eg drought Spatial analogues – study a warmer & drier site Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline
  • 14.
  • 15. Is this drought or aridity; drought or drying; variability or change; cycle or shift.
  • 16. April to October rainfall
  • 17.
  • 21. Howden et al 2010