KTG w/ John Doggett 4.13.10- "Global Trade Outlook"
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We are in the eye of a hurricane in global trade, unlike anything anyone has seen in recent history. Andy Grove calls this time a strategic inflection point, “a time in the life of a business [or country] when its fundamentals are about to change. That change can mean an opportunity to rise to new heights. But it may just as likely signal the beginning of the end,” (Grove, Only the Paranoid Survive). Our rules of thumb and assumptions are no longer valid, and countries we hadn’t considered to be competitors in the past are emerging ahead of the US. Listen and learn as Professor Doggett examines recent global trends and zeroes in on the future global economy as impacted by recent Chinese economic growth.
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Semelhante a KTG w/ John Doggett 4.13.10- "Global Trade Outlook"
Semelhante a KTG w/ John Doggett 4.13.10- "Global Trade Outlook" (20)
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KTG w/ John Doggett 4.13.10- "Global Trade Outlook"
- 1. McCombs Knowledge To Go April 13, 2010
- 2. Global Trade Outlook by Professor John Doggett
- 3. We Are In The Eye of a S.I.P.
- 6. The Axis of the Future
- 15. Future GDP (PPP) Estimates Source IMF (Oct 2009)
- 16. GDP Predictions
- 17. A Swarm of Inflection Points Dr. P. Konana, McCombs Business School, University of Texas at Austin 1964-70 1989-94 2000-2005
- 30. Welcome to the New China copyright - John N. Doggett, 2008
- 31. Growth at Warp Speed
- 32. The People’s Republic of Communist China?
- 33. Shenzhen in 1979 www.lenbracken.com/images/china31
- 34. 30,000 people lived here in 1983 Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:57440.jpg
- 35. China’s Exploding Middle Class
- 36. Chinese Banks and The World
- 37. GDP Growth Rate
- 38. Exports as percent of GDP
- 39. Imports as percent of GDP
- 40. GDP vs. Exports (% of GDP) Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
- 41. GDP vs. Imports (% of GDP) Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
- 42. US Trade (Im) Balance with China http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html
- 46. China’s Top Trade Partners ( 2009 US $ Billions ) Source: PRC General Administration of Customs, China's Customs Statistics Rank Country Volume % change over 2008 1 United States 298.3 -10.6 2 Japan 228.9 -14.2 3 Hong Kong 174.9 -14.1 4 South Korea 156.2 -16.0 5 Taiwan 106.2 -17.8 6 Germany 105.7 -8.1 7 Australia 60.1 0.7 8 Malaysia 52.0 -3.0 9 Singapore 47.9 -8.8 10 India 43.4 -16.3
- 52. Energy per Capita Rising with Incomes Dr. P. Konana, McCombs Business School, University of Texas at Austin Source: Roopa Purushothaman, Goldman Sachs, BRICs Report 2003 Japan UK South Korea
- 57. Applied’s New Xi’an R&D Plant
- 58. This Will Be China’s Century
Notas do Editor
- 06/07/10
- Currencies tend to rise as higher productivity leads economies to converge on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) exchange rates. PPP exchange rates are especially useful when official exchange rates are artificially manipulated by governments. For example, if the value of the Mexican peso falls by half compared to the U.S. dollar , the Mexican Gross Domestic Product measured in dollars will also halve. However, this exchange rate results from international trade and financial markets. It does not necessarily mean that Mexicans are poorer by a half; if incomes and prices measured in pesos stay the same, they will be no worse off assuming that imported goods are not essential to the quality of life of individuals Purchasing power parity ( PPP ) is a theory of long-term equilibrium exchange rates based on relative price levels of two countries. looks at the prices of a Big Mac burger in McDonald's restaurants in different countries. If a Big Mac costs US$ 4 in the United States and GBP £3 in the United Kingdom, the PPP exchange rate would be £3 for $4.
- China is expected to pass Japan and have the second largest GDP in 2010 China is expected to surpass the US GDP in 2027 Side note, India is projected to pass the US in 2050
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- http://www.ft.com, search for “top 20 financial institutions” and log in
- Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2000 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Source: World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.
- Exports of goods and services represent the value of all goods and other market services provided to the rest of the world. They include the value of merchandise, freight, insurance, transport, travel, royalties, license fees, and other services, such as communication, construction, financial, information, business, personal, and government services. They exclude labor and property income (formerly called factor services) as well as transfer payments. Source: World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.
- Imports of goods and services represent the value of all goods and other market services received from the rest of the world. They include the value of merchandise, freight, insurance, transport, travel, royalties, license fees, and other services, such as communication, construction, financial, information, business, personal, and government services. They exclude labor and property income (formerly called factor services) as well as transfer payments. Source: World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.
- China's exports last month grew 24.3% from a year earlier China's trade surplus in the first quarter totaled $14.49 billion, but shrinking 76.7% from the same time a year earlier
- China's imports last month grew rose 66% from a year earlier China's trade surplus in the first quarter totaled $14.49 billion, but shrinking 76.7% from the same time a year earlier China ran its first monthly trade deficit in six years in March Looks to be short lived
- Blue – what the US exported (to China?) Red – what we imported from China So yellow = the trade deficit
- China now accounts for close to 40% of manufacturing exports from developing countries Multinational enterprises (MNEs) account for almost 60% of merchandise exports and imports.
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