FORTRESS General Morphological Analysis presentation - ISCRAM 2015
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Presentation on FORTRESS project's use of General Morphological Analysis. ISCRAM Conference 2015.
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FORTRESS General Morphological Analysis presentation - ISCRAM 2015
- 1. @FORTRESS_EUhttp://fortress-project.eu Kim Hagen, Hayley Watson & Tom Ritchey 27 May 2015, ISCRAM Experiencing GMA as a means of developing a conceptual model of the problem space involving understanding cascading effects in crises
- 2. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu CASCADING EFFECTS Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Supply of power cut off Cooling systems stopped working Overheating fuel rods Release of radioactive material • ‘Situations where a disruption of one element, such as infrastructure, causes a sequence of disruptive events, which can cause deleterious impacts far beyond the initial impacts of the crisis (Little, 2010)’
- 3. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu THE FORTRESS CHALLENGE • Understanding the web of interdependent infrastructures, systems and stakeholders involved in managing a crisis
- 4. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu GETTING ON THE ‘SAME PAGE’ The solution to ‘getting on the same page’ in FORTRESS was General Morphological Analysis (GMA)
- 5. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu GENERAL MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS (GMA) • Non-quantified modeling method • Can enable a shared understanding of the various interdependencies involved in cascading crises, by creating a conceptual model of a problem space
- 6. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu GMA IN FORTRESS • 3 workshops: academics, industry, end users. • Aim: generating a common understanding (problem space) of important parameters/elements to be considered in the analysis of cascading effects in crises, and how these elements relate to one another
- 8. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu THE PROBLEM SPACE • A visual overview in table form, in which the parameters of relevance, as identified by workshop participants, were listed in cells in the top row, along with the range of their options in the column below the cell. • A total of twenty parameters were identified in the first workshop. These parameters and their ranges were adjusted and refined in two subsequent workshops.
- 9. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu PROBLEM SPACE Case Types of hazard Principal nature(s) of impact Scope of impact Onset of crisis Scop Tsunami-Fukushima, Japan, 2011 Natural Physical Global Sudden Glob Firework factory explosion (2000) - Netherlands Social Social / Psychological International & cross border Rapid (Hours/days) Inte London attacks (2005) Technological Economic National Slow (Weeks) Nati Heat wave 2003 (France) Antagonistic Political Regional Creeping (months/years) Reg Malaysia MH17 plane crash (2014) Local Loca Avalanche Disaster of Galtür, AT (1999)
- 11. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu OUR EXPERIENCE OF GMA • Frustration regarding not knowing what was expected • Challenging in combining perspectives • Experience facilitator- invaluable
- 12. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu BENEFITS • Gaining a comprehensive overview of the concepts and associated variables requiring our attention within the analysis of historical case studies of cascading effects in the project, • Helping to build relationships and a shared understanding of concepts among a multidisciplinary team, which is commonly an obstacle in multidisciplinary research. • Provided a computerised model for subsequent steps in FORTRESS
- 15. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu OBSTACLES • For those participating in GMA in FORTRESS a key lesson learnt was the need for adequate time to fully explore and develop the problem space in the first workshop. More time could have enhanced efficiency and saved time in later stages of the project.
Notas do Editor
- Experiencing General Morphological analysis as a means of developing a common understanding of parameters or elements to be considered in the analysis of cascading effects. Before I start: I am not going to present results here- the role of GMA in FORTRESS is very much work in progress. It’s really about giving an initial impression of the experience of working with this method from a predominately social science perspective.
- Define cascading effects: Cascading effects in crises refer to situations where a disruption of one element, such as infrastructure, causes a sequence of disruptive events, which can cause deleterious impacts far beyond the initial impacts of the crisis (Little, 2010). A prominent example is the general sequence of events that took place at the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant following an earthquake and tsunami in 2011. The supply of power to the plant was cut off, and emergency generators couldn’t be used. Without power the cooling systems of the plant stopped working, resulting in the overheating of the fuel rods, leading to radioactive material being released into the air, and to contaminated water spilling from the plant’s storage facilities for many months (BBC, 2013).
- We examine cascading effects in the FORTRESS project: Foresight tools for responding to cascading effects in a crisis- three year project, in which we want to gain more insight into cascading crises with the aim of providing tools to help in better managing crises. *First step: to understand the dynamic web of interdependent infrastructures, systems, and stakeholders involved in responding to and managing a crisis. Which institutions are part of this web and how do different partners in the FORTRESS project see the importance and role of these institutions or bodies. Need for a shared understanding amongst FORTRESS partners that approach the issue from different angles.
- To create such an common understanding, it’s important you’re ‘on the same page’. In this context I’ll briefly introduce how we used and experienced the method of GMA for getting people on the same page. Further information on the exact process of GMA can be found in the paper….first, let me briefly explain what GMA is.
- non-quatified modeling method Xxx The problem space focuses on-What are the most important/relevant parameters concerning cascading effects of disruptive events on critical infrastructure (assets that are essential for the functioning of a society and economy) and how do these parameters relate to one another?
- *Within the project we’ve so far organised three GMA workshops. Within the social sciences, qualitative methods such as focus groups also provide an opportunity for discussion of key questions and areas of consideration by a group of experts. Whilst a focus group enables participants to discuss matters as a group, the output is more likely to be data that is of value for analysis by the researcher, rather than a computerised model based on a process of agreeing upon and formulating an actionable set of interdependencies (as can be produced with GMA). *Aim…
- This shows part of the problem space: some parametres and their options or values The problem space was subsequently used in the analysis of case studies of past crises. All the relevant parameters and their values were identified in order to visually represent each case study, with the aim of scrutinising and comparing them at a later stage in the project. The same use of the GMA will take place later in the project when engaging with crisis scenarios (which will be used to run a systems and behavioural analysis) to further understand the complex nature of cascading effects in crises.
- In addition to the Problem Space a WID was developed with the purpose of enabling an initial identification of relevant interdependencies between sectors, which could be of importance in the analysis of cascading effects in crises. BLANK = Has NO DIRECT influence on … 1 = Has some (or a little) DIRECT influence on 2 = Has a significant DIRECT influence on …... 3 = Has a crucial DIRECT influence on …
- Frustration: xxx Come with open mind Challenging: In this sense GMA bears a strong resemblance to interdisciplinary research; the success of the GMA workshops depended on smooth communication and crucially, negotiation; both are key elements identified by Oughton and Bracken’s (2009) in their account of interdisciplinary research. Experienced facilitator invaluable - At times, heated discussions took place among participants resulting in some tension. For some, these discussions may have resulted in a sense of frustration and a feeling that little was being accomplished, however, the value of this process of discussion should not be overlooked. The process of going over components such as what do we agree stages of a crisis to be, is key to a clear guiding model for a project such as FORTRESS. An important component of managing the tension at times present in the room, that could be useful to other collaborative research methodologies was the time taken to have breaks. Although a seemingly practical solution, such an activity helped to build relationships and enable the group to proceed that may not always be considered a viable option due to time constraints.
- More detailed questions on GMA can be directed to Tom…