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Supply Chain Workshop Demo
1.
Supply Chain Management Pure
& Simple 1© Sauder Consulting Inc. To access the entire workshop, Click:
2.
2© Sauder Consulting
Inc. 1. Introduction 3 2. Course/Workshop Agenda 5 3. Supply Chain Management Overview 7 4. Supply Chain Flows 10 5. Supply Chain Design 12 6. Forecasting 17 7. Master Production Scheduling/Inventory Planning 37 8. Material Requirement Planning 54 9. Capacity Planning/Production Scheduling 64 10. Purchasing (Sourcing & Procurement) 81 11. Labour & Material Scheduling 91 12. Production 92 13. Distribution 93 14. Metrics/KPIs 98 15. Glossary 103 Table of Contents
3.
3© Sauder Consulting
Inc. I have been working in the supply chain field for over three decades. It is a fascinating area because this is where the connection from raw materials to everything we consume happens. It is called supply chain for a reason because there are many links from extracting raw materials through production, shipping, retailing, to consumption. Each element of the supply chain is a very distinct process requiring vast resources in people, equipment, buildings, infrastructure, software. Each function within the supply chain is a topic of study and a field of expertise. Supply Chain Management (SCM) is the discipline of coordinating all the activities of the chain in the most effective manner, minimizing waste and maximizing value. It does not concern itself with executing the actual physical processes of manufacturing, shipping, selling, but with the planning of the execution. I have often said that while the quality of execution depends on the professionals doing the work, the results of the execution depend on the quality of the plan. The key functions of supply chain management are: 1. Forecasting 2. Production Planning/Master Scheduling 3. Inventory Planning 4. Material Requirement Planning 5. Capacity Planning 6. Purchasing (Sourcing & Procurement) 7. Detailed Production Scheduling 8. Distribution Planning Introduction
4.
4© Sauder Consulting
Inc. We will cover all of the planning areas in detail and we also provide overviews of some of the execution processes. In the critical areas of forecasting, production planning, and inventory planning we will explain the detailed mathematics and algorithms that drive software. There will be examples and worksheets for you to fill in so you get a hands on feel for how the planning engine works. The actual math is simple, basic arithmetic. The application to thousands of items and millions of daily calculations to get data for planning and decision making when you need them is what makes it highly complex. We will have workshops allowing you to understand your current supply chain management set ups and capabilities and then lead you to defining what you want to change. There are many supply chain management resources available. Books, seminars, even degree programs can be found. And most of them are well constructed by excellent professionals, practitioners, and academics. But they all take time and/or are fairly expensive. The main reasons they take time are: 1. There is excruciating detail 2. The scope is extended to include other management topics We have taken the essentials, all you really need, and present them in a “pure & simple” format, including a recommended minimum set of metrics (key performance indicators) This course is for you to review and understand all the functions within supply chain management, no fluff. It will guide you to redesign your organization, your processes, and your software as you deem necessary. Tom Sauder, P.Eng. November 2015 Introduction
5.
Day 1: Morning
Session • Supply Chain Management Overview • Workshop #1: Defining Your Supply Chain • Supply Chain Flows • Supply Chain Design – People, Process, Tools (Systems) • Workshop #2: Current State – People, Processes, Tools Day 1: Afternoon Session • Supply Chain Flows – Forecasting • Workshop # 3: Current State Forecasting & Demand Planning Day 2: Morning Session • Supply Chain Flows - Master Production Scheduling • Workshop # 4: Current State MPS • Supply Chain Flows - Materials Requirement Planning • Workshop # 5: Current State MRP Agenda 5© Sauder Consulting Inc.
6.
Day 2 Afternoon
Session • Supply Chain Flows – Production Schedule & Capacity Planning • Workshop # 6: Production Scheduling & Capacity Planning – Current State • Supply Chain Flows – Purchasing & Capital Procurement • Workshop # 7: Purchasing Day 3 Morning Session • Supply Chain Flows – Labour & Material Schedules • Supply Chain Flows – Production • Supply Chain Flows – Warehousing • Supply Chain Flows – Shipping • Workshop # 8: Warehousing & Shipping Day 3 Afternoon Session • Metrics/Key Performance Indicators • Parking Lot Items • Time Buffer Agenda 6© Sauder Consulting Inc.
7.
Supply Chain Flows 7 Flow
of information makes or breaks the success of supply chain management: 1. Time – planning horizon and frequency of analysis/review 2. Quality of information – data accuracy 3. Aggregation of information – analysis & decision making 4. Disaggregation of information – allow for higher level inputs, such as forecast by business units, and break it down to the lowest level required for action Forecast Demand Plan Master Production Schedule Capacity Plan Material Requirement Plan Production Schedule Capital Procurement Purchasing Labour & Material Schedules Production Distribution Shipment/Sales History Business Planning Supply Chain Planning Execution Management © Sauder Consulting Inc.
8.
Supply Chain Flows 8 Forecast
Accuracy Metric There are many ways to measure forecast accuracy, and text books have been written about them. A common method is Mean Absolute Percent Error or MAPE. Statistically MAPE is defined as the average of percentage errors. M Mean n Number of time periods of measurement t time period At actual value of sales/shipment Ft forecast value MAPE = M*100 Forecast Accuracy = 100% - MAPE% © Sauder Consulting Inc. Forecast Demand Plan
9.
Supply Chain Flows 9 This
metric gets complex when aggregating different SKUs or time buckets. Let’s add a second SKU: SKU #2 Month Ft At At - Ft |At – Ft| |At – Ft| At 1 110 100 -10 10 0.10 2 99 110 11 11 0.10 3 210 200 -10 10 0.05 4 270 250 -20 20 0.08 Sum 720 660 - 29 51 0.33 MAPE = 8.25% FC Accuracy = 91.75% Passes Target The aggregated MAPE for the 2 SKUs = 14.875%, FC Accuracy = 85.125%. Aggregating results in an overall Pass © Sauder Consulting Inc. Forecast Demand Plan SKU # 1 Month Ft At At - Ft |At – Ft| |At – Ft| At 1 80 100 20 20 0.20 2 200 160 -40 40 0.25 3 100 80 -20 20 0.25 4 210 250 40 40 0.16 Sum 590 590 0 120 0.86 Example: FC accuracy target is 85% MAPE = 0.86 * 100 = 21.5% 4 FC Accuracy = 100% - 21.5% = 78.5% (Fails Target) Forecast accuracy calculation example:
10.
Supply Chain Flows 10 Forecast
Accuracy Exercise: Fill in the blanks in the table and calculate MAPE, FC Accuracy SKU Month Ft At At - Ft |At – Ft| |At – Ft| At 1 220 200 2 198 220 3 420 400 4 540 500 Sum MAPE = % FC Accuracy = % Pass/Fail: © Sauder Consulting Inc. Forecast Demand Plan
11.
Workshop # 3:
Forecasting 11 Forecast & Demand Planning Design 1. People • Who should forecast ? • Who should develop demand plan? 2. Processes (current state): • Forecast SIPOC(s) ** • Demand Plan SIPOC(s) • Forecast KPIs & Metrics 3. Tools/Systems • Forecast software • Demand plan software • Any gaps to where we want to be? **Suggestion: Use SIPOC methodology (next slide) © Sauder Consulting Inc. Forecast Demand Plan
12.
Workshop # 3: SIPOC
Instructions 12 SIPOC is our preferred way of defining individual processes. We will define SIPOC and explain how to fill them out here. All SIPOCs are created the same way. Supplier (S): The person/organization providing the input to the process Input (I): The specific data inputs to the process Process (P): The actual process, algorithm, or math that converts inputs to outputs Output (O): The specific data outputs Customer (C): The persons/organizations receiving the data outputs SIPOCs are best filled out by a group consisting of all stakeholders. Each SIPOC will have a filled out example to give you an indication of the type of information required. Each case is unique and you will need to decide what makes sense for you. We use the same SIPOC chart to record any gaps we discovered in the discovery process. We then make a list of gap closing actions everyone agreed to. These actions then form the deliverables for an implementation project plan. © Sauder Consulting Inc. Forecast Demand Plan
13.
Workshop # 3: SIPOC
Example 13 Forecast Current SUPPLIER INPUT PROCESS OUTPUT CUSTOMER Forecast Data Sales Managers Jim and Linda Cases by customer Keyed into Excel and uploaded to FC software SKU Forecast by customer Demand Planners Fred and Sue Calculations FC software converts aggregate input to detailed output (below) Horizon 24 months 24 months 24 months Time Bucket Year Weekly weekly Item Aggregation Brand family Brand family SKU Location (Org) Customer Customer, aggregates to business unit Customer Frequency Annual Annual Annual Software Excel Oracle Demantra Oracle Demantra © Sauder Consulting Inc. Forecast Demand Plan
14.
Workshop # 3: Forecasting
SIPOC 14© Sauder Consulting Inc. Forecast Demand Plan Forecast Current SUPPLIER INPUT PROCESS OUTPUT CUSTOMER Forecast Data Calculations Horizon Time Bucket Item Aggregation Location (Org) Frequency Software
15.
Workshop # 3: Forecasting
Gaps 15© Sauder Consulting Inc. Forecast Demand Plan Forecast Future SUPPLIER GAP INPUT GAP PROCESS GAP OUTPUT GAP CUSTOMER GAP Forecast Data Calculations Horizon Time Bucket Item Aggregation Location (Org) Frequency Software
16.
Workshop # 3: Forecasting
Gap Closure 16© Sauder Consulting Inc. Forecast Demand Plan Forecast Future SUPPLIER GAP CLOSER INPUT GAP CLOSER PROCESS GAP CLOSER OUTPUT GAP CLOSER CUSTOMER GAP CLOSER Forecast Data Calculations Horizon Time Bucket Item Aggregation Location (Org) Frequency Software
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