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Shahid Hussain Raja
Author/Consultant/Trainer
Cambridge. UK
www.shahidhussainraja.com
 Introduction
 Terrorism Defined
 Terrorism-Historical Background
 Causes of Terrorism-Initiating Conditions
◦ Pull Factors
◦ Push Factors
 Causes of Terrorism-Sustaining Conditions
◦ Marginalisation
◦ Identity Politics
◦ Foreign Policy Decisions
◦ Betrayal Syndrome
◦ Lack of Political Empowerment
 Strategy to Curb Terrorism
 Conclusion
 Terrorism-historical as well as universal phenomenon; few countries
can claim not to have been affected by this menace which is rising
 Has been practised by every type of organisation, religious or non-
religious, right-wing or left-wing. Muslims, Christians, Jews, Hindus
 Consequently, the reasons for the terrorist activity and the identity of
its perpetrators are always subject to the context, time and place.
 This presentation attempts to analyse global terrorism in its historical
perspective, identify causes and presents a plan of action to curb it
 Unfortunately, there is no consensus on its accurate definition; one
country’s terrorists are other country’s freedom fighters
 However, for this presentation, we can define, "terrorism" as
“any violent act of intentional targeting of non-combatants by a person
or a group to create panic among the public with the aim of getting
tactical or strategic concessions from the policy makers for the
accomplishment of their political or nonpolitical goals.”
 International terrorism as per US Code has following three features
1. Involve violent/dangerous acts to human life that violate federal or state law;
2. Appear to be intended (i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population; (ii) to
influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or (iii) to
affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or
kidnapping; and
3. Occur primarily outside territorial jurisdiction of U.S., or transcend national
boundaries in terms of means, targets, or locale
 Following three groups considered terrorists of pre-modern era
1. Zealots: Jewish Zealots, first organized terrorists whose acts of
violence against Romans resulted in their banishment from Israel
2. Assassins: Followers of Hasan bin Sabah(10th century)-violence
perpetrated by them on the order of their spiritual leader.
3. Thugs: Members of secret Indian cult, worshipped Mother Kali,
operated as gangs of highway robbers, strangling their victims
 Jacobins: Who coined term “terrorism” during French Revolution, killed
more than 35,000 people to terrify French people into submission
 Anarchists: Pioneers of modern terrorism at global level, started in
1880s in Russia, later spread to Europe/North America.
 Anti-colonial Terrorism: Terror groups that operated in Asia, Africa
during last phase of colonialism and continued up to 1980sa.
 Nationalist Terrorists: Zionist underground terrorist outfit Irgun known
for the bombing of the King David Hotel on Monday July 22, 1946
 1970s/80s Terrorists: Irish Republican Army, ETA in Spain and
PLO/Black September in Middle East,Tamil Tiger in Sri Lanka
 Popularized suicide bombing/women suicide bombers, copied by the
Jihadist terror organizations in the Middle East and Europe
 Leftist Romantics: Those who took part in 1968 street demonstrations
in European capitals became disillusioned
 Taking armed struggle as strategy to begin revolution; Italy's Red
Brigades, Germany's Baader-Meinhof group
 Pre-9/11 Terrorists: Trained by CIA during Soviet Afghan War, these radicalized
Muslims took arms against oppressive governments of ME
 One such resistance group Al-Qaida led by Osama Bin Laden started global
Jihad against the West after American/NATO invasion during First1990 Gulf
War.
 Post 9/11 Terrorists: Terrorist activities carried out by radicalised Muslims after
the actions taken by the USA when it launched War on Terrorism.
 Asserting that only way to progress for Muslims is to follow the original
religious principles of Islam practiced during golden period of Islamic Caliphate
 Terrorism-complex phenomenon, specific kind of political violence
committed by people who do not have legitimate army at their disposal.
 Barring few Lone Wolf cases, most of these conditions have to do with
circumstances such as political, social repression, or economic strife.
 There are two sets of conditions which make violence against civilians
seem like a reasonable and even necessary option;
1. Conditions facilitating Start of Terrorism-Pull Factors vs Push
Factors
2. Conditions facilitating Survival of Terrorism-4 Ss Model
 Pull factor-something appealing in ideology, person, or organization
1. Maybe Intellectual underpinnings of organization/idea, promises of
salvation in hereafter, sheer charismatic personality of leader
2. Personal quest, a sense of belonging to a cause, ideology or social
network, friendship and kinship ties/compulsions
3. Sheer excitement of enjoying power,control, adventure, possibility
of heroism/ personal redemption usually attracting the rich.
4. Financial benefits of joining, protection from the state agencies.
 Push factors-reasons which force a person to become extremist or
join a terrorist organization and start an armed struggle
 Five main reasons for a group of people to resort to acts of violence
1. Marginalization
2. Identity Politics
3. Foreign Occupation/Interventions
4. Betrayal Syndrome
5. Lack of Political Empowerment
 Socioeconomic deprivation and political marginalisation of significant
minority, actual or perceived, create feelings of hatred against state
 Repression, injustice provide justification for terrorists to mobilise
people for protest, join violent outfits if grievances not redressed
 To get support of silent majority of their group, they resort to their
emotional manipulation by using cards of race, religion, caste, colour etc
 Then used by the vested interests, local or foreign, state or non-state,
for furtherance of their foreign policy or domestic agenda.
 Popularised by Francis Fukuyama, cultural marginalisation, which
produces alienation, lack of belonging to home or parents’ society.
 2nd generation of Muslim migrants to Europe are facing this identity
crises; not owned by host countries, links to parent’s country weak
 Consequently, this sociocultural isolation reinforces their religious
solidarity with Muslims around the world; sense of global belonging
 Any issue of the greater Muslim Ummah is internalised by these isolated
youths prompting them to turn extremist
 Foreign occupation or foreign policy decisions of powerful countries
against weaker countries arouse the feelings of injustice and nationalism
 Domestic grievances are framed around victimhood against Western
foreign policy and military intervention. ‘West is at war with Islam’
 Conflicts in Muslim countries are filtered through this core narrative.
These conflicts and events can become a focal point for mobilisation.
 There is a keen sense of alienation and injustice which is reinforced by
Islamophobia, xenophobia and discriminatory acts of European states
 Global/regional powers create/support militant groups in their areas of
respective interests for the furtherance of their foreign policy agenda.
 Once used, these militants are abandoned by their erstwhile sponsors;
they in turn become their nemeses-a “disposal problem”.
 Feeling of betrayal turn these highly motivated and well trained into
hardcore Jihadists ready to take revenge for this betrayal
 Unfit and un-welcome to re-absorb in their societies, these disgruntled
elements join the militant groups to vent their anger and frustration
 Majority of terrorists are from dictatrial countries where lack of
democracy makes people vulnerable to radical recruitment:
 Globalization is stoking aspirations of middle classes in every country
for better quality of life, political empowerment, social equality
 However, in many ME countries, adequate channels of expression do
not exist for these groups to express their grievances
 Consequently, these countries are increasingly witnessing outbursts
of popular resentment, exploited by the vested elements/extremists
 Push and Pull factors explain how people voluntarily join or motivated
to join extremist outfits
 Irrespective of the reason for coming into existence of an extremist
organisation, it ultimately needs four things to survive and succeed
1. Slogan/Cause
2. Support of People
3. Space for Operations
4. Sponsors-Finance and Armaments
 Terrorism must have a cause, how unachievable or absurd it may seem to
be.
 It could be an armed struggle against occupation forces (i.e. Taliban fighting
against NATO forces in Afghanistan)
 Or foreign policy decisions of outside states adversely affecting those
resorting to terrorism (i.e. 9/11 or terrorist acts in Europe).
 Or vocal group of minority facing state oppression/social marginalisation,
may take up arms (i.e. Moros in Philippines/ Rohingyas in Myanmar).
 Terrorists need the shelter, support and sympathy of the people
they think they are fighting for.
 If they think that they are not being supported by public, they start
terrorist activities against them to force them to support them.
 See the acts of terrorism by the Muslim militias against their own
people in this context.
 "Terrorism is not necessarily about the number of people you kill;
it's about the terror you create."-Peter Neumann
 Terrorist organisation must have an area of operation for their
terrorist activities, preferably urban area to create maximum impact.
 Their main aim is to create panic among public, awe state by
performing high visibility, maximum casualty acts of terrorism
 Biggest challenge for agencies is to squeeze that space for the
terrorists to carry ouy out their acts of terrorism
 Whether they spring up spontaneously or created by some agency, every
terrorist organisation ultimately needs a foreign sponsor.
 It could be a global power, a regional aspirant for hegemony or any
disgruntled neighbour interested to achieve its national interests.
 It provides them finances, arms, training and advice. Tamil Tigers, Mukti
Bahini, Moros, Uyghurs, Hezbollah, IRA, Taliban, ISIS
 Need global/regional and bilateral cooperation and negotiation to choke
these sources; Otherwise, tit for tat strategy is needed
 Stopping violence is rarely simple or easy. Only time and commitment
by a majority of the parties involved can resolve​ a conflict.
 Multidimensional nature of terrorism demands adopting a long term
holistic and comprehensive approach for its eradication.
 While Pull and Push causes of terrorism need long term policies, the
sources of survival of terrorism can be choked even in the short term.
 Some of the measures are as follows;
1. Formulation of long-term Vision/Legal Framework
2. Use of Force-legitimate but adequate
3. Countering 4Ss-Slogan,Support,Space,Sponsors
4. Plugging in the sources- Discrimination, Poverty, Inequality etc
5. Improving Criminal Justice System
6. Regional and Global Cooperation and Coordination
7. Mainstreaming Ex-Terrorists/Returning Foreign Fighters
 Comprehensive framework for tackling terrorism, implemented in
letter and spirit, intelligence gathering and better coordination
 Carrot and stick strategy to announce amnesty for those who
voluntarily renounce terrorism and severe punishment for others
 Divide and eliminate strategy by infiltrating professional spies inside
their ranks and create dissention among their ranks.
 Hearts and mind strategy to win over those segments of population
who hold sympathies for these groups and provide them support
 Four point strategy to counter terrorism through use of force
◦ 1.Do not kill political head of terrorist organisation to avoid formation of splinter
groups. Secondly, we need him when finally negotiations are to be held
◦ 2.Do no spare the second tier of terrorist outfit. Being the planners, these are the
most dangerous persons in the organisation
◦ 3. Co-opt the third tier (field operators) of these terrorist organisation through
every means possible-these are very helpful in locating the second tier leadership
◦ 4.Win over the people living in the terror prone area by carrying out the
development activities to ensure life is going on normal
 Slogan: Counter terrorist narrative with better narrative using facts, logic
and emotions, and utilising opinion makers-religious scholars for this
 Support: Find and choke the channels of material and financial support
to the terrorist outfits
 Space: Keep on limiting the space terrorists use to carry out terrorist
activity by utilising all the technological and human intelligence
 Sponsors: Similarly, take all measures, physical and diplomatic to
restrain the access of terrorists to foreign sources of funds and arms
 Improve judicial system so that even the hardened criminals and
terrorists are convicted and sentenced with due process of law.
 Selection/appointment strictly on merit, their constant capacity building
in modern techniques of investigation and prosecution.
 Similarly, judges need to be appointed on merit and provided maximum
security so that they can dispense justice without any fear or favour.
 Constructing high security prisons to confine the hardcore terrorists to
ensure they do not have contacts with the outfield commanders
 Poverty Reduction: Accelerate the growth but also selective attack
on worst form of poverty through appropriate social safety nets.
 Discrimination: Important driver of terrorism to be tackled through
legislative measures, financial support and development effort
 Hate Literature: Control the spread of hate material against a
group on the basis of caste, creed or colour or ethnicity.
 Cyber Control: In these days of technological connectivity, rumours
spread like wildfire. Effective measures needed to nip them in bud
 Systematic re- absorption for foreign fighters who renounce terrorism
and surrender, tackled by special agency to check double dealing
 Not all returnees dangerous. Treating all former fighters as high risk
may radicalise them further through unwarranted persecution.
 Government should thoroughly screen these returnees to identify the
more dangerous among them to be punished under the law
 However, select credible and trustworthy individuals who could become
effective change agents to counter recruitment narratives of militants
 Renunciation by all states not to use terrorist outfits as their proxies
for the achievement of their narrow national interests
 Formulation of comprehensive strategy by involving all regional &
global stakeholders-Intelligence sharing/Money Laundering/arrests
 Marshall Plan style integrated development of main regions of
terrorism (Middle East, Africa, Afghanistan/Pakistan etc)
 Peaceful resolution of long simmering disputes-Palestine, Kashmir etc
 Good Governance/Human Development in ME as priority by UN/West
 Despite ambiguity of definition, terrorism is a global and historical
phenomenon with multiple sets of causes
 As such tackling it requires multidimensional and internally as well as
externally coordinated approach
 However, all our counter-terrorism measures must be in conformity
with accepted norms of ethics and fundamental human rights
 If you like the presentation , kindly click the icon
 For any question, kindly email me at shahidraja@hotmail.com
 For downloading the presentation or its word version, please visit my
website
www.shahidhussainraja.com
This website contains large number of articles on diverse issues. Some
of these are presented in the next few slides
 Pakistan’s Difficulties at the Time of her Independence
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/pakistans-difficulties-at-the-time-of-her-independence/
 Why Countries Break? Case of Bangladesh
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/why-countries-break-case-of-bangladesh/
 Pakistan’s 13th IMF Programme: Prospects & Challenges
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/pakistans-13th-imf-programme-prospects-challenges/
 Federalism in Pakistan: Challenges & Response
https://www.shahidhussainraja.com/federalism-in-pakistan-challengers-response/
 Water Issues in Pakistan
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/water-issues-in-pakistan/
 Governance Reforms in Pakistan: Need and Content
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/governance-reforms-in-pakistan-need-and-content/
 Pakistan’s Strategic Culture: Determinants & Dimensions
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/pakistans-strategic-culture-determinants-dimensions/
 Pakistani Culture: Sources & Drivers
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/pakistani-culture-sources-drivers/
 Improving Pakistan’s Global Image
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/improving-pakistans-global-image/
 Two Nations Theory: Myths and Reality
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/two-nations-theory-myths-and-reality/
 Why do Civil Service Reforms in Pakistan Fail?
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/why-do-civil-service-reforms-in-pakistan-fail/
 Is Pakistan a Failed State?
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/is-pakistan-a-failed-state/
 Pakistan Ideology: Sources & Features
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/what-is-pakistan-ideology-myths-and-content/
 International Relations: Definition, Scope & Subject Matter
(http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/the-scope-of-international-relations/)
 Modern Nation-state System: Challenges & Prospects
(http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/modern-nation-state-system-challenges-prospects/)
 Foreign Policy: Features, Success Factors & Challenges
(http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/foreign-policy-features-success-factors-challenges/)
 Clash of Civilisations by Huntington
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/clash-of-civilizations-a-critique/
 Globalization: Compressing Time and Space -Part 1& 2
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/globalization-compressing-time-and-space-part-1/
/http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/globalization-compressing-time-and-space-part-2/
 Determinants of Foreign Policy
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/determinants-of-foreign-policy/
 Foreign Policy: Tools & Implements
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/foreign-policy-tools-instruments/
 National Interest: Meaning & Components
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/national-interest-meaning-components/
 World Peace: A Norm or an Aberration?
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/world-peace-a-norm-or-an-aberration/
 End of History by Francis Fukuyama
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/end-of-history-by-francis-fukuyama-a-critique/
 Breakup of Soviet Union: Causes & Consequences
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/breakup-of-the-soviet-union-causes-consequences/
 Global Terrorism: Challenges & Response – Part 1 & 2
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/global-terrorism-challenges-response/
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/global-terrorism-challenges-response-part-2/
 War on Terror: Causes, Course, Costs and Consequences Part 1 & 2
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/war-on-terror-causes-course-costs-and-consequences-part-1/
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/war-on-terror-causes-course-costs-and-consequences-part-2/
 Arab Spring: Genesis, Causes of Failure & Lessons Learnt
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/arab-spring-genesis-causes-of-failure-lessons-learnt/
 Islamophobia: Genesis, Challenges & Response
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/islamophobia-genesis-challenges-response/
 Vietnam War: Causes & Consequences
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/vietnam-war-causes-course-and-consequences/
 Nine Drivers of Sino-American Cold War
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/9-drivers-of-america-china-cold-war/
 IMF Programmes: Do they help Developing Countries?
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/imf-programme-does-it-help-a-developing-country/
 American Interests in Afghanistan
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/american-interests-in-afghanistan/
 Reasons for Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan in 1979
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/why-did-soviet-union-enter-afghanistan-in-1979/
 The Middle East Crises: Genesis and Dimensions
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/the-middle-east-crises-genesis-and-dimensions/
 China Iran Relations: Past, Present & Future
http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/china-iran-relations-past-present-future/
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Causes and Strategies of Global Terrorism

  • 2.  Introduction  Terrorism Defined  Terrorism-Historical Background  Causes of Terrorism-Initiating Conditions ◦ Pull Factors ◦ Push Factors  Causes of Terrorism-Sustaining Conditions ◦ Marginalisation ◦ Identity Politics ◦ Foreign Policy Decisions ◦ Betrayal Syndrome ◦ Lack of Political Empowerment  Strategy to Curb Terrorism  Conclusion
  • 3.  Terrorism-historical as well as universal phenomenon; few countries can claim not to have been affected by this menace which is rising  Has been practised by every type of organisation, religious or non- religious, right-wing or left-wing. Muslims, Christians, Jews, Hindus  Consequently, the reasons for the terrorist activity and the identity of its perpetrators are always subject to the context, time and place.  This presentation attempts to analyse global terrorism in its historical perspective, identify causes and presents a plan of action to curb it
  • 4.  Unfortunately, there is no consensus on its accurate definition; one country’s terrorists are other country’s freedom fighters  However, for this presentation, we can define, "terrorism" as “any violent act of intentional targeting of non-combatants by a person or a group to create panic among the public with the aim of getting tactical or strategic concessions from the policy makers for the accomplishment of their political or nonpolitical goals.”
  • 5.  International terrorism as per US Code has following three features 1. Involve violent/dangerous acts to human life that violate federal or state law; 2. Appear to be intended (i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population; (ii) to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or (iii) to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and 3. Occur primarily outside territorial jurisdiction of U.S., or transcend national boundaries in terms of means, targets, or locale
  • 6.  Following three groups considered terrorists of pre-modern era 1. Zealots: Jewish Zealots, first organized terrorists whose acts of violence against Romans resulted in their banishment from Israel 2. Assassins: Followers of Hasan bin Sabah(10th century)-violence perpetrated by them on the order of their spiritual leader. 3. Thugs: Members of secret Indian cult, worshipped Mother Kali, operated as gangs of highway robbers, strangling their victims
  • 7.  Jacobins: Who coined term “terrorism” during French Revolution, killed more than 35,000 people to terrify French people into submission  Anarchists: Pioneers of modern terrorism at global level, started in 1880s in Russia, later spread to Europe/North America.  Anti-colonial Terrorism: Terror groups that operated in Asia, Africa during last phase of colonialism and continued up to 1980sa.  Nationalist Terrorists: Zionist underground terrorist outfit Irgun known for the bombing of the King David Hotel on Monday July 22, 1946
  • 8.  1970s/80s Terrorists: Irish Republican Army, ETA in Spain and PLO/Black September in Middle East,Tamil Tiger in Sri Lanka  Popularized suicide bombing/women suicide bombers, copied by the Jihadist terror organizations in the Middle East and Europe  Leftist Romantics: Those who took part in 1968 street demonstrations in European capitals became disillusioned  Taking armed struggle as strategy to begin revolution; Italy's Red Brigades, Germany's Baader-Meinhof group
  • 9.  Pre-9/11 Terrorists: Trained by CIA during Soviet Afghan War, these radicalized Muslims took arms against oppressive governments of ME  One such resistance group Al-Qaida led by Osama Bin Laden started global Jihad against the West after American/NATO invasion during First1990 Gulf War.  Post 9/11 Terrorists: Terrorist activities carried out by radicalised Muslims after the actions taken by the USA when it launched War on Terrorism.  Asserting that only way to progress for Muslims is to follow the original religious principles of Islam practiced during golden period of Islamic Caliphate
  • 10.  Terrorism-complex phenomenon, specific kind of political violence committed by people who do not have legitimate army at their disposal.  Barring few Lone Wolf cases, most of these conditions have to do with circumstances such as political, social repression, or economic strife.  There are two sets of conditions which make violence against civilians seem like a reasonable and even necessary option; 1. Conditions facilitating Start of Terrorism-Pull Factors vs Push Factors 2. Conditions facilitating Survival of Terrorism-4 Ss Model
  • 11.  Pull factor-something appealing in ideology, person, or organization 1. Maybe Intellectual underpinnings of organization/idea, promises of salvation in hereafter, sheer charismatic personality of leader 2. Personal quest, a sense of belonging to a cause, ideology or social network, friendship and kinship ties/compulsions 3. Sheer excitement of enjoying power,control, adventure, possibility of heroism/ personal redemption usually attracting the rich. 4. Financial benefits of joining, protection from the state agencies.
  • 12.  Push factors-reasons which force a person to become extremist or join a terrorist organization and start an armed struggle  Five main reasons for a group of people to resort to acts of violence 1. Marginalization 2. Identity Politics 3. Foreign Occupation/Interventions 4. Betrayal Syndrome 5. Lack of Political Empowerment
  • 13.  Socioeconomic deprivation and political marginalisation of significant minority, actual or perceived, create feelings of hatred against state  Repression, injustice provide justification for terrorists to mobilise people for protest, join violent outfits if grievances not redressed  To get support of silent majority of their group, they resort to their emotional manipulation by using cards of race, religion, caste, colour etc  Then used by the vested interests, local or foreign, state or non-state, for furtherance of their foreign policy or domestic agenda.
  • 14.  Popularised by Francis Fukuyama, cultural marginalisation, which produces alienation, lack of belonging to home or parents’ society.  2nd generation of Muslim migrants to Europe are facing this identity crises; not owned by host countries, links to parent’s country weak  Consequently, this sociocultural isolation reinforces their religious solidarity with Muslims around the world; sense of global belonging  Any issue of the greater Muslim Ummah is internalised by these isolated youths prompting them to turn extremist
  • 15.  Foreign occupation or foreign policy decisions of powerful countries against weaker countries arouse the feelings of injustice and nationalism  Domestic grievances are framed around victimhood against Western foreign policy and military intervention. ‘West is at war with Islam’  Conflicts in Muslim countries are filtered through this core narrative. These conflicts and events can become a focal point for mobilisation.  There is a keen sense of alienation and injustice which is reinforced by Islamophobia, xenophobia and discriminatory acts of European states
  • 16.  Global/regional powers create/support militant groups in their areas of respective interests for the furtherance of their foreign policy agenda.  Once used, these militants are abandoned by their erstwhile sponsors; they in turn become their nemeses-a “disposal problem”.  Feeling of betrayal turn these highly motivated and well trained into hardcore Jihadists ready to take revenge for this betrayal  Unfit and un-welcome to re-absorb in their societies, these disgruntled elements join the militant groups to vent their anger and frustration
  • 17.  Majority of terrorists are from dictatrial countries where lack of democracy makes people vulnerable to radical recruitment:  Globalization is stoking aspirations of middle classes in every country for better quality of life, political empowerment, social equality  However, in many ME countries, adequate channels of expression do not exist for these groups to express their grievances  Consequently, these countries are increasingly witnessing outbursts of popular resentment, exploited by the vested elements/extremists
  • 18.  Push and Pull factors explain how people voluntarily join or motivated to join extremist outfits  Irrespective of the reason for coming into existence of an extremist organisation, it ultimately needs four things to survive and succeed 1. Slogan/Cause 2. Support of People 3. Space for Operations 4. Sponsors-Finance and Armaments
  • 19.  Terrorism must have a cause, how unachievable or absurd it may seem to be.  It could be an armed struggle against occupation forces (i.e. Taliban fighting against NATO forces in Afghanistan)  Or foreign policy decisions of outside states adversely affecting those resorting to terrorism (i.e. 9/11 or terrorist acts in Europe).  Or vocal group of minority facing state oppression/social marginalisation, may take up arms (i.e. Moros in Philippines/ Rohingyas in Myanmar).
  • 20.  Terrorists need the shelter, support and sympathy of the people they think they are fighting for.  If they think that they are not being supported by public, they start terrorist activities against them to force them to support them.  See the acts of terrorism by the Muslim militias against their own people in this context.  "Terrorism is not necessarily about the number of people you kill; it's about the terror you create."-Peter Neumann
  • 21.  Terrorist organisation must have an area of operation for their terrorist activities, preferably urban area to create maximum impact.  Their main aim is to create panic among public, awe state by performing high visibility, maximum casualty acts of terrorism  Biggest challenge for agencies is to squeeze that space for the terrorists to carry ouy out their acts of terrorism
  • 22.  Whether they spring up spontaneously or created by some agency, every terrorist organisation ultimately needs a foreign sponsor.  It could be a global power, a regional aspirant for hegemony or any disgruntled neighbour interested to achieve its national interests.  It provides them finances, arms, training and advice. Tamil Tigers, Mukti Bahini, Moros, Uyghurs, Hezbollah, IRA, Taliban, ISIS  Need global/regional and bilateral cooperation and negotiation to choke these sources; Otherwise, tit for tat strategy is needed
  • 23.  Stopping violence is rarely simple or easy. Only time and commitment by a majority of the parties involved can resolve​ a conflict.  Multidimensional nature of terrorism demands adopting a long term holistic and comprehensive approach for its eradication.  While Pull and Push causes of terrorism need long term policies, the sources of survival of terrorism can be choked even in the short term.  Some of the measures are as follows;
  • 24. 1. Formulation of long-term Vision/Legal Framework 2. Use of Force-legitimate but adequate 3. Countering 4Ss-Slogan,Support,Space,Sponsors 4. Plugging in the sources- Discrimination, Poverty, Inequality etc 5. Improving Criminal Justice System 6. Regional and Global Cooperation and Coordination 7. Mainstreaming Ex-Terrorists/Returning Foreign Fighters
  • 25.  Comprehensive framework for tackling terrorism, implemented in letter and spirit, intelligence gathering and better coordination  Carrot and stick strategy to announce amnesty for those who voluntarily renounce terrorism and severe punishment for others  Divide and eliminate strategy by infiltrating professional spies inside their ranks and create dissention among their ranks.  Hearts and mind strategy to win over those segments of population who hold sympathies for these groups and provide them support
  • 26.  Four point strategy to counter terrorism through use of force ◦ 1.Do not kill political head of terrorist organisation to avoid formation of splinter groups. Secondly, we need him when finally negotiations are to be held ◦ 2.Do no spare the second tier of terrorist outfit. Being the planners, these are the most dangerous persons in the organisation ◦ 3. Co-opt the third tier (field operators) of these terrorist organisation through every means possible-these are very helpful in locating the second tier leadership ◦ 4.Win over the people living in the terror prone area by carrying out the development activities to ensure life is going on normal
  • 27.  Slogan: Counter terrorist narrative with better narrative using facts, logic and emotions, and utilising opinion makers-religious scholars for this  Support: Find and choke the channels of material and financial support to the terrorist outfits  Space: Keep on limiting the space terrorists use to carry out terrorist activity by utilising all the technological and human intelligence  Sponsors: Similarly, take all measures, physical and diplomatic to restrain the access of terrorists to foreign sources of funds and arms
  • 28.  Improve judicial system so that even the hardened criminals and terrorists are convicted and sentenced with due process of law.  Selection/appointment strictly on merit, their constant capacity building in modern techniques of investigation and prosecution.  Similarly, judges need to be appointed on merit and provided maximum security so that they can dispense justice without any fear or favour.  Constructing high security prisons to confine the hardcore terrorists to ensure they do not have contacts with the outfield commanders
  • 29.  Poverty Reduction: Accelerate the growth but also selective attack on worst form of poverty through appropriate social safety nets.  Discrimination: Important driver of terrorism to be tackled through legislative measures, financial support and development effort  Hate Literature: Control the spread of hate material against a group on the basis of caste, creed or colour or ethnicity.  Cyber Control: In these days of technological connectivity, rumours spread like wildfire. Effective measures needed to nip them in bud
  • 30.  Systematic re- absorption for foreign fighters who renounce terrorism and surrender, tackled by special agency to check double dealing  Not all returnees dangerous. Treating all former fighters as high risk may radicalise them further through unwarranted persecution.  Government should thoroughly screen these returnees to identify the more dangerous among them to be punished under the law  However, select credible and trustworthy individuals who could become effective change agents to counter recruitment narratives of militants
  • 31.  Renunciation by all states not to use terrorist outfits as their proxies for the achievement of their narrow national interests  Formulation of comprehensive strategy by involving all regional & global stakeholders-Intelligence sharing/Money Laundering/arrests  Marshall Plan style integrated development of main regions of terrorism (Middle East, Africa, Afghanistan/Pakistan etc)  Peaceful resolution of long simmering disputes-Palestine, Kashmir etc  Good Governance/Human Development in ME as priority by UN/West
  • 32.  Despite ambiguity of definition, terrorism is a global and historical phenomenon with multiple sets of causes  As such tackling it requires multidimensional and internally as well as externally coordinated approach  However, all our counter-terrorism measures must be in conformity with accepted norms of ethics and fundamental human rights
  • 33.  If you like the presentation , kindly click the icon  For any question, kindly email me at shahidraja@hotmail.com  For downloading the presentation or its word version, please visit my website www.shahidhussainraja.com This website contains large number of articles on diverse issues. Some of these are presented in the next few slides
  • 34.  Pakistan’s Difficulties at the Time of her Independence http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/pakistans-difficulties-at-the-time-of-her-independence/  Why Countries Break? Case of Bangladesh http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/why-countries-break-case-of-bangladesh/  Pakistan’s 13th IMF Programme: Prospects & Challenges http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/pakistans-13th-imf-programme-prospects-challenges/  Federalism in Pakistan: Challenges & Response https://www.shahidhussainraja.com/federalism-in-pakistan-challengers-response/  Water Issues in Pakistan http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/water-issues-in-pakistan/  Governance Reforms in Pakistan: Need and Content http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/governance-reforms-in-pakistan-need-and-content/  Pakistan’s Strategic Culture: Determinants & Dimensions http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/pakistans-strategic-culture-determinants-dimensions/
  • 35.  Pakistani Culture: Sources & Drivers http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/pakistani-culture-sources-drivers/  Improving Pakistan’s Global Image http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/improving-pakistans-global-image/  Two Nations Theory: Myths and Reality http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/two-nations-theory-myths-and-reality/  Why do Civil Service Reforms in Pakistan Fail? http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/why-do-civil-service-reforms-in-pakistan-fail/  Is Pakistan a Failed State? http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/is-pakistan-a-failed-state/  Pakistan Ideology: Sources & Features http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/what-is-pakistan-ideology-myths-and-content/
  • 36.  International Relations: Definition, Scope & Subject Matter (http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/the-scope-of-international-relations/)  Modern Nation-state System: Challenges & Prospects (http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/modern-nation-state-system-challenges-prospects/)  Foreign Policy: Features, Success Factors & Challenges (http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/foreign-policy-features-success-factors-challenges/)  Clash of Civilisations by Huntington http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/clash-of-civilizations-a-critique/  Globalization: Compressing Time and Space -Part 1& 2 http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/globalization-compressing-time-and-space-part-1/ /http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/globalization-compressing-time-and-space-part-2/
  • 37.  Determinants of Foreign Policy http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/determinants-of-foreign-policy/  Foreign Policy: Tools & Implements http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/foreign-policy-tools-instruments/  National Interest: Meaning & Components http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/national-interest-meaning-components/  World Peace: A Norm or an Aberration? http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/world-peace-a-norm-or-an-aberration/  End of History by Francis Fukuyama http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/end-of-history-by-francis-fukuyama-a-critique/  Breakup of Soviet Union: Causes & Consequences http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/breakup-of-the-soviet-union-causes-consequences/
  • 38.  Global Terrorism: Challenges & Response – Part 1 & 2 http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/global-terrorism-challenges-response/ http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/global-terrorism-challenges-response-part-2/  War on Terror: Causes, Course, Costs and Consequences Part 1 & 2 http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/war-on-terror-causes-course-costs-and-consequences-part-1/ http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/war-on-terror-causes-course-costs-and-consequences-part-2/  Arab Spring: Genesis, Causes of Failure & Lessons Learnt http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/arab-spring-genesis-causes-of-failure-lessons-learnt/  Islamophobia: Genesis, Challenges & Response http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/islamophobia-genesis-challenges-response/  Vietnam War: Causes & Consequences http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/vietnam-war-causes-course-and-consequences/
  • 39.  Nine Drivers of Sino-American Cold War http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/9-drivers-of-america-china-cold-war/  IMF Programmes: Do they help Developing Countries? http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/imf-programme-does-it-help-a-developing-country/  American Interests in Afghanistan http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/american-interests-in-afghanistan/  Reasons for Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/why-did-soviet-union-enter-afghanistan-in-1979/  The Middle East Crises: Genesis and Dimensions http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/the-middle-east-crises-genesis-and-dimensions/  China Iran Relations: Past, Present & Future http://www.shahidhussainraja.com/china-iran-relations-past-present-future/