1327 - FTCs and Farmer Tef Demonstration and Results 2012

2012 FTCs and farmers tef technology
demonstration
Overview of results
May 2013

Agenda
A. Overview of results at federal level
B. Breakdown of results by region
C. Supplemental analyses
1

2
Newly-scaled up tef technologies, particularly row planting and transplanting, demonstrate
yield improvements, with an average yield increase of ~70% over the national average
Average yield by planting method
Quintals/hectare • Data was collected from
~15,800 validating farmers
(and some control farmer
groups) to determine the
results of new tef
technologies
• For the 14,605 farmers,
average yields for row
planting and transplanting
increased 70% from
national average (20.9
versus 12.6 qtls/ha)
• As the chart shows, there
is still much work to be
done in properly managing
transplanting to realize
potential yield gains
17
12
16
21222122
18
20
2323
Amhara
n = 4,637
SNNP
n = 3,480
Oromia
n = 6,002
Tigray
n = 486
N/A
Broadcasting
Row planting
Transplanting
Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013)
Note: Includes data from 14,605 farmers (omitted error/outlier data from 15,790 total collected)

3
Distribution of yield data shows that 30% of all validating farmers surveyed experienced
yield increase between 20 and 80% over the national average
Distribution of Validating Farmers’ yields
Frequency of yield increase (as % of total data set)
4
7
6
8
10
8
13
11
7
150 -
200%
125 -
150%
Over
200%
100 -
125%
80 -
100%
60 - 80%40 - 60%20 - 40%10 - 20%Less than
10%
27
~30% of farmers saw a
20 – 80% yield increase
Farmers who broadcasted, used high seed
rates, or may have experienced challenges
with new technologies
~20% of farmers saw a 100 –
200% yield increase (~60% of
this group row planted)

4
Top-performing woredas across the four regions have demonstrated success in adopting
the new technologies, reaching maximum yields higher than a 400% yield increase
Average and maximum yields for row planting and transplanting farmers
Quintal/hectare
36
36
35
35
35
35
33
33
32
31H/Abote 53
Tahaty-
Maichew
56
47
Lume 68
Maraka
Kuxha
68
65
Alefa 42
Dabat
Enebsie
Sar Midir
58
Chilga 53
67
Libo Kemkem
AMHARA
SNNP
OROMIA
SNNP
TIGRAY
OROMIA
68 quintals/hectare
versus the national
average of 12.5
quintals/hectare

5
Data indicates that validating farmers’ seed rate usage varies by planting method, with the
highest rates used in broadcasting to the least amount of seed used in transplanting
Average seed rate and yields by planting type across regions
Yield (quintal/hectare), Seed rate (kg/hectare)
4
1011
30
2222
15
13
25
20
15
10
5
0
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
TransplantingRow plantingBroadcastingNational
average
• While this does not imply causation, there appears to be an inverse relationship between planting type and seed
rate practices of the validating farmers
• Overall, the average seed rate has dropped significantly from traditional practices of 30-50 kg/ha to an average
of 8.8 kg/ha across all planting types (includes broadcasting farmers as well)
• Use of Quncho variety appears to be on the rise, with 92% of validating farmers choosing it over other options
(local varieties, Cross-37, Yedega, etc.)
Seed rate
Avg yield

6
Fertilizer application rates appear to match recommendations for DAP (average application
rate of 99.5 kg/ha), yet fall slightly below recommendations on Urea (88.4 kg/ha)
Average DAP and Urea application rates by region
Kg/hectare
Key takeaways on DAP and Urea
utilization by farmers:
• Urea use is highly variable,
much more than DAP: the
standard deviation for Urea is
24.6 kg/hectare versus 3.8 for
DAP, indicating the that farmer
use of DAP is more consistent
• Application rates are fairly
agnostic of planting method:
for each planting method, the
average application rates
remain similar
9910099
91
868890
Amhara
n = 4,037
SNNP
n = 3,051
Oromia
n = 4,943
Tigray
n = 304
N/A
DAP
Urea
4.1 21.9 4.4 25.4 1.3 26.5 6.5 21.5
X Standard deviation
Note: Includes data from 12,335 farmers (omitted error/outlier fertilizer data from 15,790 total collected)

7
A high-level view of planting time indicates that most farmers observed ‘traditional’
planting times, though farmers that planted earlier saw significant yield increases
69616261626272
86
66
8089
0
50
100
June
Week 2
Sept
Week 1
July
Week 4
August
Week 1
August
Week 2
August
Week 3
August
Week 4
59
July
Week 3
July
Week 2
July
Week 1
June
Week 4
June
Week 3
Average productivity increase by planting time
% productivity increase (compared to national average)
0.3%0.1% 2%0.8% 16%5% 19%24% 4%7% 1%4%
Percentof
farmers
Key takeaways
 Planting time of validating farmers followed
standard practices, with ~60% of farmers
planting in mid-July to early August
 Though a small sample size, there seems to be a
strong productivity increase for farmers who
planted earlier, in the 3 and 4th weeks of June
Standard
planting
period
Next steps for exploration
 Early planting time, when is coincides with
rainfall, is a topic to be further explored with
farmers and on FTC plots
 EIAR and RARIs, with support from ATA, will
conduct formal research projects to determine
the impact of planting 2, 3 or 4 weeks early
Largely driven by
transplanting

8
20.1
18.3
15.5
8.4
12.6
+60%
Average yields by experimental plot across regions
Quintal/hectare
X.X Standard
deviation
Avg yield qt/ha
Planting type
National
Average for
2012
Broadcast
by hand
Broadcast
by machine
Row plant Transplant
Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-50 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7
Fertilizer type none DAP +
Urea
DAP +
Urea
DAP +
Urea
Seed type Local Quncho Quncho Quncho
8.16.9 9.4 11.4
In ~1,100 FTC trials, it can be observed that factors such as reduced seed rate, planting in
rows, and use of DAP and Urea can each contribute to increasing yields
• Findings indicate that
significant yield
improvement results
from new technologies
such as row planting,
transplanting, and
reduced seed rate
• Across the 1,100 FTCs,
yields were recorded for
each experimental plot
that was designed to
test either planting
method, seed rate, seed
variety, or fertilizer use
Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013); CSA 2012

9
20.1
18.3
15.514.9
13.9
12.012.6
+4%+7%
+18%
+10%
+16%
Average yields by experimental plot across regions
Quintal/hectare
Planting
type
National
Average for
2012
Broadcast by
hand
Broadcast by
hand
Broadcast by
hand
Broadcast by
machine
Seed rate
(kg/ha)
30-50 30-50 5-10 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7
Fertilizer
type
DAP + Urea DAP +
Urea
DAP +
Urea
DAP +
Urea
DAP +
Urea
DAP +
Urea
Seed type Local Quncho Quncho Quncho Quncho Quncho
Taking a closer look at each variable, it appears that switching to Quncho and row planting
are the largest drivers of productivity increase

Agenda
A. Overview of results at federal level
B. Breakdown of results by region
C. Supplemental analyses
10

11
AMHARA: overview of data collected
Farmer data overview
Average yield 20.47
Standard deviation 9.65
Average productivity increase 62%
Count of farmers Raw Cleaned
Farmers 4,958 4,637
Gender split
Male 4,373 95%
Female 685 4%
Geographic scope within region
(as reported)
Count of zones 10
Count of woredas 85
31%
Broadcasting (machine)
1%
Broadcasting
(hand)
Transplanting
Row planting48%
19%
Distribution of planting type
% of total farmers (from raw data)

12
AMHARA: input use, yields achieved, and planting time
Inputs use of Validating Farmers
Planting time of Validating Farmers
Highest-producing woredas (based on Validating Farmers)
Average input use by planting method
Kg/hectare
10
88
9994
9
99 96100
2
Row planting
n = 2,238
Broadcasting
n = 1,446
Transplanting
n = 889
Seed
DAP
Urea
Average and maximum farmer yields
Kg/hectare (average and max by woreda)
36
35
32
31
30
Enebsie Sar midir 58
Alefa
Dabat 67
Libo Kemkem 68
53Chilga
42
Average
Max
Average yield based on planting time
68
194136455671947285105104
100
August
Week 3
200
0
Sept
Week 1
August
Week 4
August
Week 2
August
Week 1
July
Week 4
July
Week 3
July
Week 2
July
Week 1
June
Week 4
June
Week 3
June
Week 2

13
18.0
16.3
14.5
8.0
12.6
+124%
Average yields by experimental plots across Amhara FTCs
Quintal/hectare
X.X Standard
deviation
Avg yield qt/ha
Planting type
National
Average for
2012
Broadcast
by hand
Broadcast
by machine
Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-40 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7
Urea
DAP +
Urea
DAP +
Urea
8.15.0 8.9 10.4
AMHARA: FTC demonstration plot results

14
OROMIA: overview of data collected
Average yield 21.26
Count of farmers and FTCs Raw Cleaned
Farmers 6,515 6,002
Gender split
Male 6,198 95%
Female 292 5%
(as reported)
Count of zones N/A
Count of woredas 48
15%
Broadcasting
57%
Transplanting
Row planting
16%

15
OROMIA: input use, yields achieved, and planting time
Kg/hectare
4810
1009999
859085
Transplanting
n = 889
Row planting
n = 2,238
Broadcasting
n = 1,446
Urea
DAP
Seed
32
30
30
28
26Dawoo 38
A/Nagale 65
Gimbichuu 61
H/Abote 53
Lume 68
Average
Max
92
626164676772
90
6675
51
2050
August
Week 3
August
Week 2
August
Week 1
July
Week 4
July
Week 3
July
Week 2
100
0
Sept
Week 1
August
Week 4
July
Week 1
June
Week 4
June
Week 3
June
Week 2

16
20.1
18.1
15.2
8.1
12.6
+148%
Average yields by experimental plots across Oromia FTCs
Quintal/hectare
X.X Standard
deviation
Avg yield qt/ha
Planting type
National
Average for
2012
Broadcast
by hand
Broadcast
by machine
Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-40 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7
Urea
DAP +
Urea
DAP +
Urea
8.46.4 9.5 11.1
OROMIA: FTC demonstration plot results

17
SNNP: overview of data collected
Average yield 20.72
Farmers 3,766 3,480
Gender split
Male 3,061 81%
Female 124 3%
(as reported)
Count of zones N/A
Count of woredas 38
11%
65%
Row planting
1%
Broadcasting
(hand) Broadcasting (machine)
13%
Transplanting

18
SNNP: input use, yields achieved, and planting time
Kg/hectare
41211
100100100
838783
Transplanting
n = 889
Row planting
n = 2,238
Broadcasting
n = 1,446
Urea
DAP
Seed
33
33
27
27
27Bona Zuria 33
Maraka 47
Gombera 30
Kuxha 70
Dalocha 69
Average
Max
686367666972725234
178
-37
144
-200
200
0
Sept
Week 1
August
Week 4
August
Week 3
August
Week 2
August
Week 1
July
Week 4
July
Week 3
July
Week 2
July
Week 1
June
Week 4
June
Week 3
June
Week 2
June planting consists of only 5 farmers

19
22.7
21.0
17.0
8.2
12.6
+177%
Average yields by experimental plots across SNNP FTCs
Quintal/hectare
X.X Standard
deviation
Avg yield qt/ha
Planting type
National
Average for
2012
Broadcast
by hand
Broadcast
by machine
Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-40 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7
Urea
DAP +
Urea
DAP +
Urea
7.27.8 8.9 12.5
SNNP: FTC demonstration plot results

20
TIGRAY: overview of data collected
Average yield 20.55
Farmers 551 486
Gender split
Male 410 74%
Female 54 10%
(as reported)
Count of zones N/A
Count of woredas 11
4%
62%
Row planting
5%
Transplanting 4%
Broadcasting
(hand) Broadcasting (machine)

21
TIGRAY: input use, yields achieved, and planting time
Kg/hectare
7813
10098100 9192100
Transplanting
n = 889
Row planting
n = 2,238
Broadcasting
n = 1,446
Urea
DAP
Seed
32
30
30
28
26Tahtay Koraro 38
Weri-Leke 65
Medebay Zana 61
Adwa 53
Tahaty- Maichew 68
Average
Max
36
7449
-25
29100
0
Sept
Week 1
August
Week 4
August
Week 3
-100
August
Week 2
August
Week 1
July
Week 4
July
Week 3
July
Week 2
July
Week 1
75
June
Week 4
-17
June
Week 3
67
June
Week 2
76
36N/A N/A
Includes only 2
farmers
Includes only 2
farmers

22
18.918.7
16.5
11.812.6
+60%
Average yields by experimental plots across Tigray FTCs
Quintal/hectare
X.X Standard
deviation
Avg yield qt/ha
Planting type
National
Average for
2012
Broadcast
by hand
Broadcast
by machine
Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-40 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7
Urea
DAP +
Urea
DAP +
Urea
9.511.0 10.5 11.8
TIGRAY: FTC demonstration plot results

Takeaways from 2012 farmer and FTC data analysis that should inform ATA and RBoA
planning and execution for 2013 and 2013 tef planting seasons
23
Takeaways to inform 2013 and 2014 intervention planning and execution
• The benefits of optimal fertilizer application rates should be better
disseminated to farmers via trainings and materials, particularly for Urea
• More intensive training on transplanting management practices should be
provided to farmers given the volatility in yields observed in 2012
• FTCs should be encouraged to conduct demonstrations to test for specific
variables’ impact on yield (e.g., planting 2-3 weeks earlier, reduced seed
rates of 5/10/15/ kg per ha, pelleted Urea)
• FTC yields indicate significant yield increases due to use of Quncho with
90% of farmers in these trials using Quncho; should explore further
support for Quncho while also considering other improved varieties

24
 Includes 15,790 validating
farmers’ data
 8% of data was omitted as
inaccurate or incomplete
 45% (33% + 12%) of
validating farmers’ yields
were between 20 and 40
quintals per hectare
Overview of data collected: yield distribution for 15,790 validating farmers and 1,107 FTCs
40 to 60
40
0
20
1%
60+
3%
30 to 40
12%
20 to 30
33%
10 to 20
40%
Less than 10
8%
Distribution of Validating Farmers’ yields
 Covers 1,107 FTCs with an
average of 9.6 experimental
data plots per FTC
 4% of the data was omitted
as inaccurate or incomplete
 Distribution of yields is
wider given trials included
many variables
40
20
0
40+
2%
30 to 40
7%
20 to 30
20%
10 to 20
38%
5 to 10
18%
Less than 5
11%
Distribution of FTC yield per experimental plot
Quintals / hectare
Quintals / hectare

25
Overview of data collected: basics
average yield 20.86
std dev 12.38
bell curve upper bound 58.00
average productivity increase 66%
Count of farmers
Amhara 4,958 31%
Oromia 6,515 41%
SNNP 3,766 24%
Tigray 551 3%
Total farmers 15,790
Gender split
Male 14346 95%
Female 685 5%
20%
1%
17% 61%
Broadcasting (machine)
Row plantingTransplanting
Broadcasting (hand)
% of total farmers

1327 - FTCs and Farmer Tef Demonstration and Results 2012

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