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One nation divided?The challenge for
Britain beyond Brexit
Heather Stewart, Political Editor atThe Guardian
Deborah Mattinson, Founding Director of BritainThinks
Cordelia Hay, Associate Director at BritainThinks
Tim Montgomerie, Columnist atTheTimes
MattWhittaker, Chief Economist Resolution Foundation
Chair:Torsten Bell, Director of the Resolution Foundation
1
DIVIDED BRITAIN?
Perceptions, realities and prospects for
the future
Matthew Whittaker
22 September 2016
@MattWhittakerRF @resfoundation
2
LONG DIVISION
Assessing the referendum vote by place
3
Do the haves and have nots explain the Brexit vote?
Maybe…
Looking across
378 of Britain’s
380 local
authorities, a
simple
correlation
shows that
those with
higher levels of
median pay
recorded lower
votes for leave
Source: ONS, NOMIS 4
But there’s more going on… with a clear division
between higher and lower paying groups
Source: ONS, NOMIS 5
Economics mattered for the Leave vote, but it was long-
established divisions that stood out
6
ECONOMICS
Employment
rate
Change in median pay (‘02-’15)
Median pay
Manufacturing change (‘95-’15)
After controlling for all other
factors, the employment rate in
an area proved a statistically
significant predictor of the vote
– higher employment areas
were less likely to vote Leave
No significant link to recent
changes in economic factors,
suggesting that the economic
divide is long-established
Demographics also mattered, with the pace of change in
migration in an area mattering more than the level
7
Areas with high numbers of
students posted lower Leave votes
after controlling for other factors
The share of the population born
outside of the UK had no
significant bearing on the vote, but
the pace of change in the migrant
population over the last decade did
DEMOGRAPHICS
Students
Non-UK born share of population
Ratio of old to young
Change in non-UK
share (‘04-’15)
Cultural differences played a role too, with some areas
recording very different votes even after accounting for
other factors
8
Areas were statistically less likely to vote
Leave when reporting higher levels of
‘cohesion’ (where ‘people tend to get on
well with those from different
backgrounds’) and statistically more likely
when homeownership rates were high
Even after controlling for everything else,
some areas recorded unusually low Leave
votes (Scotland) and some recorded
unusually high ones (West Midlands),
implying other factors were also
important
CULTURE
‘Cohesion’
Home ownership
Scotland
West Midlands
The biggest single predictor of the vote, education,
straddled economics, demographics and culture
9
ECONOMICS
Share of population with Level 4
qualification (degree) and above
DEMOGRAPHICS CULTURE
SQUEEZED TOGETHER
Do living standards realities
match the perceptions?
10
British divide widened in the 1980s and hasn’t been
bridged since
Gini coefficient
measures the
level of
inequality (after
taxes and
benefits)
It climbed from
0.26 in 1980 to
0.34 in 1990 and
has been
broadly flat ever
since
Source: IFS 11
But period of relatively even growth in incomes since
then can be split into four distinct phases
12Source: DWP, Family Resources Survey
Before the
financial crisis,
income growth
was initially
strong and
shared, but then
disappointed
The post-crisis
squeeze on
incomes was felt
across the
distribution and
the pace of the
early recovery has
been modest
With households enduring more than a decade of weak
growth, potentially leaving many (rather than the few)
disillusioned
13Source: DWP, Family Resources Survey
The picture looks a little more skewed once we
account for differing experiences of housing costs
14
Higher income
households less
affected by
housing costs
than average
inflation
suggests, but
housing costs
have continued
to drag on
income growth
in the bottom
half of the
distribution
Source: DWP, Family Resources Survey
Especially if we focus just on the working-age
population
15Source: DWP, Family Resources Survey
Clear that inclusion of housing costs paints a picture
of a larger – and still widening – divide in Britain
When measured
after accounting
for housing
costs,
the Gini
increased from
0.27 in 1980 to
0.37 in 1990 but
then continued
to climb –
peaking at 0.4
just before the
financial crisis
And this isn’t
just a London
story
Source: IFS 16
Source: ONS
Poor income performance has coincided with a period
of significantly increased immigration
17
EU migration
picked up sharply
from 2004 thanks
to the A8
countries
There was a
further jump from
2014, after lifting
of restrictions on
Romanians &
Bulgarians
Had cultural and
(small) economic
impacts
Economic divisions haven’t widened in the 21st century,
but the general living standards backdrop has been
tough
18
• Income inequality little altered in the last 15 years, but a historic divide
helped to drive the Brexit vote
• However, the mood of the country is likely to have been affected by a
generalised slowdown in income growth since ~2002 (and a painful
post-crisis squeeze)
• This has been exacerbated for many by rising housing costs and reduced
access to homeownership
• Likely to form part of a potentially growing divide between the living
standard experiences of the generations
• Meanwhile, the coincidence of higher migration in this period of
disappointing income performance is likely to be correlated in many
people’s minds
GROWING APART
What does the future hold?
19
Economic impact
of Brexit is very
uncertain, but the
Bank of England
has knocked
£45bn off its 2018
GDP projection
Unemployment is
also projected to
be higher and
wage growth
slower than
previously
thought
Heading forward, post-referendum economic
projections point to slower growth
20Source: Bank of England
And existing (pre-Brexit) tax and benefit policies
suggest more division, not less
21
National Living
Wage provides a
boost to low
earners, but gain
spreads across
much of the
income
distribution
In contrast,
working-age
benefit cuts are
concentrated in
the bottom half
Source: RF analysis using IPPR tax
benefit model
Providing for a difficult outlook, even before
factoring in any post-Brexit slowdown
22
At the top end of
the income
distribution, pre-
Brexit forecasts
pointed to a
continuation of
disappointing
growth
At bottom end,
planned welfare
cuts meant that
incomes were set
to fall
Source: RF analysis using IPPR tax
benefit model
Meaning welcome words from the PM need to be
backed with action
23
• Brexit vote brought existing divisions to the fore of political debate
• Impact of Brexit hugely uncertain – but most likely negative over the
course of this parliament
• Even before the referendum, there were existing challenges on
earnings, housing, intergenerational fairness, entrenched
geographical inequality and regressive tax/benefit plans
• All of which means the new PM faces a tough economic inheritance
• But the good news is those issues are explicitly on the agenda
Brexit and Beyond
From Divided Britain to One Nation?
Methodology: what we did
Harlow, Essex Leamington Spa,
Warwickshire• Women aged 30-50
• All self-define as working class
• C2/D
• A mix of Leave and Remain
Voters
• Men aged 30-50
• All self-define as working class
• C2/D
• A mix of Leave and Remain
Voters
• Women aged 30-50
• All self-define as middle class
• B/C1
• A mix of Leave and Remain
Voters
• Men aged 30-50
• All self-define as middle class
• B/C1
• A mix of Leave and Remain
Voters
Online survey of 2,053 British adults weighted to be nationally
representative
Qualitative phase: four focus groups
Quantitative phase: nationally representative survey
Key take-outs
Post EU Referendum, Britain is divided – a nation of
people who describe themselves as ‘haves’ and ‘have
nots'
• In our poll 44% describe themselves as ‘haves’ and 56% as ‘have nots’
• ‘Have nots’ were much more likely to vote Brexit
1
The public’s biggest priorities post-Brexit are focused on the NHS and immigration
• They also believe politicians should be focused on post Brexit economy/trade, support
for working families, new homes, and ‘bringing Britain back together’
2
3
For most, the jury is out on Theresa May
• Though many see reason to feel cautiously positive – describing her
as a steady hand and a change from Eton-dominated politics
• Others are impatient for change and growing concerned that May is
slow to take action
Where people are starting from
The public finds it increasingly difficult to talk
about ‘one’ Britain – the word that they most
associate is ‘divided’
I think the country’s
not broken but
fractured…after the
referendum as well,
you were labelled as
either racist or
unpatriotic depending
on which side you
were.
Harlow, Male
Divided – the 52% and
48%, the country is
very much unsure
what to do. I voted to
stay, and I’m appalled
that we are going to
leave the EU, I’m
appalled that some of
the people that voted
won’t even be here.
And I think it’s the
worst decisions we’ve
made in 50 years.
Leamington Spa, Male
I love the idea of diversity in Britain and I
actually embrace that but I feel that these days
there’s quite an undercurrent of xenophobia,
and that makes me feel that Britain is broken.
An undercurrent of intolerance.
Leamington Spa, Female
Most of all, Britain is seen as divided between
‘haves’ and ‘have nots’
‘Have nots’ describe:
• A powerful sense of injustice about
their situation in life
• The feeling that systems are in place
which work in favour of elites and
against their best interests
‘Haves’ describe:
• Awareness of different levels of
wealth and success in the UK
• And a growing contingent of people
who feel ‘left behind’ and
disenchanted
• Themselves as different to that group
- and are grateful that that’s the case
We as a country have created a society of
levels. And this won’t change, because
politicians, most politicians are
millionaires. So how are they
representative of us? When they’re
making laws. The rich people could make
change but won’t because the system
works for them
Harlow, Male
My family come from Stoke on Trent, and it’s a
really impoverished city. Their outlook on the EU
was so different to my friends here, and in
London, and these are my cousins, the same
family, age. It’s Cities vs Rural, but also cities
with outdated industries that have no
regeneration. My cousin by the time she was 26
had been made redundant 4 times, in an industry
our family had worked in for generations. It’s so
different to my life.
Leamington Spa, Female
The British public is more likely to identify
with the ‘have not’ than the ‘have’ category
Have
44%Have not
56%
Q. People often talk about our divided society nowadays and how Britain is now a nation of “Haves” and the
"Have nots". Which group do you feel best describes you? Base: Representative sample of the British public
59% 50%
35% 30% 33%
57%
41% 50%
65% 70% 67%
43%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Have
But within this there are significant
differences in terms of age, geography and
socioeconomic grade
Disenchantment increases
with age up until pension age
AGE
Men and women are more or less
equally likely to feel disenchantedSEX
Disenchantment is –
unsurprisingly – higher the lower
your SEG
SEG
There is a clear North/South
divide – most strikingly in the NE
versus SE
GEOG-
RAPHY
55% 45%
57% 43%
Have
Have
not
77% of people living in the
North East identify as a
‘have not’
46%
of people living in the
South East identify as a
‘have not’
68
%
32
%
A
B
48
%
52
% C
1
38
%
62
%
C
2
18
%
82
%
D
E
Have Have not
Q. People often talk about our divided society nowadays and how Britain is now a nation of “Haves” and the "Have nots". Which group do you feel best describes you?
Base: Representative sample of the British public excluding those who say ‘don’t know’ (n=1,384)
And by political leaning and beliefs
Conservative leaners are MUCH less likely to
feel disenchanted than Labour/UKIP
supporters
PAST
VOTE
66%
are ‘haves’
34%
are ‘have nots’
32%
are ‘haves’
68%
are ‘have
nots’
33%
are ‘haves’
67%
are ‘have
nots’
‘Leavers’ are more likely to
feel left behind than
‘remainers’
EU
REF
51
%
49
%
Remai
n
voters
38
%
62
%
Leave
voters
Have
Have
not
People in different parts of Britain are
living totally different lives…
Kerry, Cleaner, Waitress and Nanny, Harlow
• Single mum of a 10 year old boy, and rents a room in
her mum’s house
• Works three jobs to cover all the bill and childcare and
even then has very little to spare at the end of the
month
• Feels that people like her are ignored and that more
money is spent on services for immigrant communities
Charity should start at home.
There are a lot of people
struggling, and they can’t get
any help. I work 3 jobs and I
can’t afford somewhere to
live. I live with my mum, with
my 10 year old son in a room,
we’re earning just enough to
get by. If I didn’t have my
mum’s support I couldn’t
manage.
Martin, Civil Servant, Leamington Spa
• Is proud of what he’s achieved in life: was the first
person in his family to go to university and has built a
comfortable life by working hard
• Felt pleased when his oldest daughter was accepted in
to university, but worries about her future beyond that
• Blames struggles for young people getting onto the
property ladder on poor management by successive
politicians
I came from a working class
background and I went to
university and it took me to a
life that I wouldn’t have had. I
think now young people are
looking at the debt and are put
off.
…and holding totally different views of
the same issue
Steve, Builder, Harlow
• Has lived in Harlow all his life, and describes the area as
in decline – especially public services
• Thinks that places like East London are now too dangerous
for White British people as the Muslim community is so
dominant
• Feels he can no longer fly an England flag when the
football is on because of political correctness gone mad
Chris, HR Manager, Leamington Spa
• Feels optimistic about his local area and the economy
• Thinks that multiculturalism has been a great thing for the
UK and has made it a more interesting and vibrant place
to live
• Says that most immigrants he has met or worked with
have been hardworking, polite and a great addition to the
country – much harder working than ‘white benefit
scroungers’
There are British citizens who
aren’t working and there are
people coming in and it’s
nothing to do with colour or
religion, it’s to do with
whether you’re willing to do
certain jobs for that amount
of money.
British culture is fading away,
the influx of the migrants is
changing things in Britain.
People who don’t want to
integrate. When they come
over here, and they can’t
speak English properly, and you
can’t talk to them at work, you
have to get someone to
interpret.
Does it matter if Britain is divided?
It does matter to the ‘have nots’ because they
feel they are losing out to an indistinguishable
class of elites who are just out for themselves…
‘Them’.. they don’t get our lives,
they don’t live in our shoes. The
working lower class voted out,
and the upper class voted in
because they’ve got the money
and they have more to lose. It
affects them more than it affects
you. People with money. They’re
panicking more that we’re out [of
the EU].
Harlow, Female
The ‘big people’, they think
that it’s a united country,
because they don’t know
about our lives.
Harlow, Male
They don’t know about
anything about real life,
their daily shop probably
cost what our weekly shop
costs.
Harlow, Female
When it comes to these tax
laws, and you tax these higher
earners they’ll go “so
long”…it’s those higher
earners that donate to the
Conservative party, who own
the big newspapers. It sounds
good taxing them more but
how are you going to do it?
Harlow, Male
It matters to ‘haves’ too, who are angry and
embarrassed about a group of people they see as
ignorant and uneducated
The thing about Wales is they all
voted out, but they’re reliant on
an industry that – unfortunately –
doesn’t work, and people need to
understand that this industry
doesn’t work anymore. And yet
the EU was plugging money into
Wales!
Leamington Spa, Female
I was always proud of Britian’s tolerance but
the Referendum campaign became ‘if you
vote to leave all the immigrants will go’. A
lot of the guys I know from working class
areas, are very much “the immigrants ruin
everything so they should go away”.
Leamington Spa, Male
When those people get angry
they will turn out in their droves
to show their displeasure. We’re
not the political power anymore.
The same people chose Boaty
McBoatface at the end of the
day.
Leamington Spa, Male
I’m still appalled that we ever
had the vote personally, I still
can’t believe they gave the public
the chance to vote on it. Most
people don’t know enough and
don’t pay any attention to the
facts.
Leamington Spa, Male
Brexit is viewed as bringing these long-
simmering divides to a head
Seen by ‘have nots’ as:
• Ordinary people triumphing over
elites
• An opportunity to fight back against
the personal and local impacts of
immigration
• Being given licence to say things they
wouldn't say previously because of
fears of being ‘un-P.C.’
Seen by ‘haves’ as:
• Vulnerable downtrodden people
who have been manipulated
• Scapegoating immigration
because of problems in their lives
• Threatening dearly held values
like tolerance and diversity
We as a country have created a society of
levels. And this won’t change, because
politicians, most politicians are
millionaires. So how are they
representative of us? When they’re
making laws. The rich people could make
change but won’t because the system
works for them
Harlow, Male
My family come from Stoke on Trent, and it’s a
really impoverished city. Their outlook on the
EU was so different to my friends here, and in
London, and these are my cousins, the same
family, age. It’s Cities vs Rural, but also cities
with outdated industries that have no
regeneration. My cousin by the time she was 26
had been made redundant 4 times, in an
industry our family had worked in for
generations. It’s so different to my life.
Leamington Spa, Female
What should Brexit Britain look like?
Everyone agrees that there needs to be
change – otherwise Britain will become
more and more divided
• Brexit is perceived as a catalyst for change
• Even remainers agree that ‘Brexit must mean Brexit’
• Critical for democracy
• And they are united in feeling fed up of slow progress
• Politicians seeming to go on holiday rather than focus on
the task at hand
• Done right, Brexit is seen as an opportunity to bring
Britain back together
• It is hoped that Brexit can lead to a fairer and more
equal Britain
Make Britain better, make it a fairer system. People who are working
basically have to fend for themselves. I split up with my husband, my baby
was 3 weeks old, I couldn’t pay the mortgage, but because I was employed
I got nothing.
Harlow, Female
Do something! They’ve not
done anything so far, a
couple of them have taken
some holidays. At the point
of the biggest decision this
country has ever made.
Harlow, Male
And re Brexit, some unanimity
emerges…
Everyone says they want clear and
concrete plan as soon as possible
With clear next steps, timescales and accountability
All the speeches, they sound very good.
I’d like them to give a timescale of when
things are going to happen. Not just
taking quotes out of the sky, give a rough
idea of when they’re going to try to
achieve these. So we can have more faith
in what they’re telling us.
Harlow, Male
I just want a plan - this is the
only time I’ve ever said this
sentence, but I’d quite like to
see a PowerPoint presentation
of the next steps, of what’s
going to happen.
Leamington
Spa, Male
But there is little understanding of the trade
offs that will follow Brexit
• People no longer believe that the pledge of £350 million extra
for the NHS will happen
• ‘Have nots’ have little concern for the trade vs immigration
trade off
• ‘Haves’ are clear that trade is more important – although
acknowledge that continuing high levels of immigration will not be
accepted
• ‘Have nots’ are adamant that immigration is the priority and feel
no connection to discussions over trade deals. It seems illogical to
them that immigration would not have to decreased now
• ‘Have nots’ expect that Brexit and lower immigration will free
up the money needed to improve public services
No one round this table owns a multimillion pound company,
or is trading in stocks and shares. It shows again that in
Westminster, it’s about them lining their pockets, it’s not
about us. It could well be about jobs. But they’re not hopping
out their seats to bail out a steel mill in wales, but if it’s a
bank, they’ve got their money invested in it and they care
Harlow, Male
Well you could say, we’re not going to
have any immigration, but there’s no
certainty that that’s achievable, so
let’s go for trade unless there’s a
plan otherwise.
Leamington Spa,
Female
30%
20%
10% 8% 6% 6%
Deliver a well-
funded and
efficient NHS
Significantly
reduce
immigration
Negotiate strong
trade deals for
Britain as we
leave the EU
Better support
for struggling
working families
Building 1m new
homes, with half
to be council
houses
Bringing Britain
together again
following the
European
referendum
Q1. Below are some policy ideas that have been proposed by leading politicians... Which one is the most important for you?
Immigration control, there’s a lot of things
that they need to do, but the first thing she
needs to do is control the population, help
people get a job and somewhere to live
Harlow, Male
There’s a lot within the cog of the NHS which is wrong, but
to keep cutting and to keep cutting… I see people on their
knees on a daily basis. It’s not about increasing the spending,
it’s actually looking at the management and making it work
better
Leamington Spa, Female
The public’s top priorities for the country
are focused on the NHS and immigration
The policies that people don’t prioritise include:
Reintroducing grammar schools, improving the transport infrastructure outside the South East, cracking down
on the pay of top executives, abolishing tuition fees and re-introducing the 50p top rate of tax
These priorities are shared by ‘haves’ and
‘have nots’
Q1. Below are some policy ideas that have been proposed by leading politicians... Which one is the most important for you?
Immigration first – and the
rest will flow, it will free up
more money
Harlow, Female
The focus has got to be on
supporting people who are
already working rather than
benefits for the unemployed
Leamington
Spa, Female
6%
6%
5%
16%
18%
35%
6%
7%
9%
6%
22%
29%
Bringing Britain together
again following the
European referendum
Building 1m new homes,
with half to be council
houses
Better support for
struggling working families
Negotiate strong trade
deals for Britain as we
leave the EU
Significantly reduce
immigration
Deliver a well-funded and
efficient NHS
Have Nots
Haves
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
4%
0%
1%
1%
2%
1%
3%
Put workers onto the
boards of big companies
Reintroduce grammar
schools
Improving transport
infrastructure to improve
economy outside…
Reintroduce 50p top rate
of tax for people earning
more than £150k
Reducing the deficit in
Britain's public sector
finances
Abolish university tuition
fees and bring back
maintenance grants
Have Nots Haves
And equally, ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ are
less interested in the same policies
Q1. Below are some policy ideas that have been proposed by leading politicians... Which one is the most important for you?
I think it gives nearly rich people a free
education. I’d love for my kids to go to grammar
school, but I don’t think it’s fair.
Leamington Spa, Male
Policies that affect ‘other people’
(e.g. taxing the highest earners)
are felt to have too little impact on
people’s own lives to be a priority
by both groups
Immigration is the lens through which people
see each of these policies and issues
• It is seen as the main cause of the ‘overburdened’ NHS, rather
than a lack of funding
• Everyone agrees that immigration must be better controlled and
they want a clear and concrete plan for what this will look like
• ‘Have nots’ are adamant that controlling immigration would solve
many of the problems in the UK
• ‘Haves’ agree that immigration needs to be controlled, so that only
the ‘best’ and most appropriate foreign workers are allowed to live in
the UK
• An Australian points based system is a popular example given for
how to control immigration successfully
It’s who you bring in rather than the number –
it’s got to be like the Australians with a point
system. It would solve a lot of problems rather
than letting everyone in who becomes
unemployed and is on benefits.
Leamington Spa, Female
For me looking at a lot of them, the money’s got
to come from somewhere, and the only way you
can get that is migration, stopping people
coming to claim money then disappearing. We
can put money in to schools, the NHS.
Harlow, Male
Is Theresa May the right person to lead
Britain through Brexit?
For many voters, the jury is out on May
• For some, it is too soon to judge
Theresa May as Prime Minister or
to see if she’ll be different to
other politicians
• Too little has happened and she has
had too little time to prove herself
• But many voters – particularly
women – do see reason to feel
cautiously optimistic
• In contrast to the perception of
David Cameron as an out of touch
Etonian, May appears more in touch
with the average person
Nothing she could do or say in those 5
minutes on the telly would make me
think that this one’s different. It’s
going to be actions over the next 5
years that matter.
Harlow, Male
I just don’t know enough about her –
I’m just watching her avidly to see
whether she delivers on her promises.
She obviously thought very carefully
about her speech but she’s made some
interesting appointments. It’s watch
and wait really.
Leamington
Spa, Female
David Cameron sometimes talks like
he’s above everybody, he couldn’t
explain the struggles of what normal
people are going through. They’re
from the same party, but she talks
with more compassion, she comes
across as a warm person, addressing
people as individuals. More sincere.
Harlow,
Female
Her ‘One Nation’ speech is felt to indicate
that things might be moving in the right
directionWhile the speech is little known, when shown the clip most
voters are positive, particularly on people left behind…
“Make Britain a country that works not for a privileged few, but for every one of us”
“Life is much harder than many people in Westminster realise”
“I know that sometimes life can be a struggle”
“The government I lead will be driven not by the interests of the privileged few, but by yours”
“If you’re at a state school, you’re less likely to reach the top professions than if you’re educated
privately”
“If you’re just managing, I want to address you directly”
“You have a job but you don’t always have job security”
“We will do everything we can to help anybody, whatever your background, to go as far as your
talents will take you”
She showed empathy, when she was
talking about we know your lives are
hard
Harlow, Female
She mentioned ‘privileged few’ on
at least a few occasions so they’re
showing that they realise that
there’s anger and anti-
establishment feeling.
Leamington Spa, MaleIt gives me goosebumps – I
thought it was brilliant. Stunning
stuff.
Leamington Spa, Female
And on the public’s top priorities, Theresa
May is trusted to do a better job than
Jeremy Corbyn – even with the NHS
38%
46%
58%
30%
12% 12%
1%
9%
2%
31% 33%
28%
Deliver a well-funded and
efficient NHS
Significantly reduce immigrationNegotiate strong trade deals for
Britain as we leave the EU
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn I don't agree with this policy Don't know
Q2. For each of these policies who would you trust most to do a good job Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn?
I don’t think there’s an alternative. I’ve never
voted blue in my life but there’s no one else
out there who makes me feel passionate the
way Theresa May does.
Leamington Spa, Female
There’s no opposition at the
moment, so the Tories can do
what they want
Leamington Spa, Male
Number 1
priority:
Number 2
priority:
Number 3
priority:
But voters now want to see action – and
are unanimous that delivering Brexit will
be May’s biggest and most important test
• Those who know a little about her see
May as a potentially strong negotiator
• May is perceived as tough and no-
nonsense from her time as Home
Secretary. This is seen as a valuable asset
to have during Brexit negotiations
• But those who know less worry that
she is just another politician
• Who will lie, let them down and fail to
deliver on their promises
I think she’ll be a much
stronger person – she’s
shown it already in her
role as Home Secretary.
She was very adamant in
things that she said and
she stood by them. I think
Ken Clarke was caught on
TV saying she was a very
strong character.
Leamington Spa, Female
You see that from
politicians all the time –
saying they’re being
inclusive when they’re not.
Harlow, Male
A plan to bring Britain back together means 3
things:
A Brexit Action Plan
• Timetable
• Impacts spelt out
1
Immigration promises kept
• Points (or similar)2
3A fair deal for the
(deserving) ‘have nots’
One nation divided?The challenge for
Britain beyond Brexit
Heather Stewart, Political Editor atThe Guardian
Deborah Mattinson, Founding Director of BritainThinks
Cordelia Hay, Associate Director at BritainThinks
Tim Montgomerie, Columnist atTheTimes
MattWhittaker, Chief Economist Resolution Foundation
Chair:Torsten Bell, Director of the Resolution Foundation
53

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One nation divided? The challenge for Britain beyond Brexit

  • 1. One nation divided?The challenge for Britain beyond Brexit Heather Stewart, Political Editor atThe Guardian Deborah Mattinson, Founding Director of BritainThinks Cordelia Hay, Associate Director at BritainThinks Tim Montgomerie, Columnist atTheTimes MattWhittaker, Chief Economist Resolution Foundation Chair:Torsten Bell, Director of the Resolution Foundation 1
  • 2. DIVIDED BRITAIN? Perceptions, realities and prospects for the future Matthew Whittaker 22 September 2016 @MattWhittakerRF @resfoundation 2
  • 3. LONG DIVISION Assessing the referendum vote by place 3
  • 4. Do the haves and have nots explain the Brexit vote? Maybe… Looking across 378 of Britain’s 380 local authorities, a simple correlation shows that those with higher levels of median pay recorded lower votes for leave Source: ONS, NOMIS 4
  • 5. But there’s more going on… with a clear division between higher and lower paying groups Source: ONS, NOMIS 5
  • 6. Economics mattered for the Leave vote, but it was long- established divisions that stood out 6 ECONOMICS Employment rate Change in median pay (‘02-’15) Median pay Manufacturing change (‘95-’15) After controlling for all other factors, the employment rate in an area proved a statistically significant predictor of the vote – higher employment areas were less likely to vote Leave No significant link to recent changes in economic factors, suggesting that the economic divide is long-established
  • 7. Demographics also mattered, with the pace of change in migration in an area mattering more than the level 7 Areas with high numbers of students posted lower Leave votes after controlling for other factors The share of the population born outside of the UK had no significant bearing on the vote, but the pace of change in the migrant population over the last decade did DEMOGRAPHICS Students Non-UK born share of population Ratio of old to young Change in non-UK share (‘04-’15)
  • 8. Cultural differences played a role too, with some areas recording very different votes even after accounting for other factors 8 Areas were statistically less likely to vote Leave when reporting higher levels of ‘cohesion’ (where ‘people tend to get on well with those from different backgrounds’) and statistically more likely when homeownership rates were high Even after controlling for everything else, some areas recorded unusually low Leave votes (Scotland) and some recorded unusually high ones (West Midlands), implying other factors were also important CULTURE ‘Cohesion’ Home ownership Scotland West Midlands
  • 9. The biggest single predictor of the vote, education, straddled economics, demographics and culture 9 ECONOMICS Share of population with Level 4 qualification (degree) and above DEMOGRAPHICS CULTURE
  • 10. SQUEEZED TOGETHER Do living standards realities match the perceptions? 10
  • 11. British divide widened in the 1980s and hasn’t been bridged since Gini coefficient measures the level of inequality (after taxes and benefits) It climbed from 0.26 in 1980 to 0.34 in 1990 and has been broadly flat ever since Source: IFS 11
  • 12. But period of relatively even growth in incomes since then can be split into four distinct phases 12Source: DWP, Family Resources Survey Before the financial crisis, income growth was initially strong and shared, but then disappointed The post-crisis squeeze on incomes was felt across the distribution and the pace of the early recovery has been modest
  • 13. With households enduring more than a decade of weak growth, potentially leaving many (rather than the few) disillusioned 13Source: DWP, Family Resources Survey
  • 14. The picture looks a little more skewed once we account for differing experiences of housing costs 14 Higher income households less affected by housing costs than average inflation suggests, but housing costs have continued to drag on income growth in the bottom half of the distribution Source: DWP, Family Resources Survey
  • 15. Especially if we focus just on the working-age population 15Source: DWP, Family Resources Survey
  • 16. Clear that inclusion of housing costs paints a picture of a larger – and still widening – divide in Britain When measured after accounting for housing costs, the Gini increased from 0.27 in 1980 to 0.37 in 1990 but then continued to climb – peaking at 0.4 just before the financial crisis And this isn’t just a London story Source: IFS 16
  • 17. Source: ONS Poor income performance has coincided with a period of significantly increased immigration 17 EU migration picked up sharply from 2004 thanks to the A8 countries There was a further jump from 2014, after lifting of restrictions on Romanians & Bulgarians Had cultural and (small) economic impacts
  • 18. Economic divisions haven’t widened in the 21st century, but the general living standards backdrop has been tough 18 • Income inequality little altered in the last 15 years, but a historic divide helped to drive the Brexit vote • However, the mood of the country is likely to have been affected by a generalised slowdown in income growth since ~2002 (and a painful post-crisis squeeze) • This has been exacerbated for many by rising housing costs and reduced access to homeownership • Likely to form part of a potentially growing divide between the living standard experiences of the generations • Meanwhile, the coincidence of higher migration in this period of disappointing income performance is likely to be correlated in many people’s minds
  • 19. GROWING APART What does the future hold? 19
  • 20. Economic impact of Brexit is very uncertain, but the Bank of England has knocked £45bn off its 2018 GDP projection Unemployment is also projected to be higher and wage growth slower than previously thought Heading forward, post-referendum economic projections point to slower growth 20Source: Bank of England
  • 21. And existing (pre-Brexit) tax and benefit policies suggest more division, not less 21 National Living Wage provides a boost to low earners, but gain spreads across much of the income distribution In contrast, working-age benefit cuts are concentrated in the bottom half Source: RF analysis using IPPR tax benefit model
  • 22. Providing for a difficult outlook, even before factoring in any post-Brexit slowdown 22 At the top end of the income distribution, pre- Brexit forecasts pointed to a continuation of disappointing growth At bottom end, planned welfare cuts meant that incomes were set to fall Source: RF analysis using IPPR tax benefit model
  • 23. Meaning welcome words from the PM need to be backed with action 23 • Brexit vote brought existing divisions to the fore of political debate • Impact of Brexit hugely uncertain – but most likely negative over the course of this parliament • Even before the referendum, there were existing challenges on earnings, housing, intergenerational fairness, entrenched geographical inequality and regressive tax/benefit plans • All of which means the new PM faces a tough economic inheritance • But the good news is those issues are explicitly on the agenda
  • 24. Brexit and Beyond From Divided Britain to One Nation?
  • 25. Methodology: what we did Harlow, Essex Leamington Spa, Warwickshire• Women aged 30-50 • All self-define as working class • C2/D • A mix of Leave and Remain Voters • Men aged 30-50 • All self-define as working class • C2/D • A mix of Leave and Remain Voters • Women aged 30-50 • All self-define as middle class • B/C1 • A mix of Leave and Remain Voters • Men aged 30-50 • All self-define as middle class • B/C1 • A mix of Leave and Remain Voters Online survey of 2,053 British adults weighted to be nationally representative Qualitative phase: four focus groups Quantitative phase: nationally representative survey
  • 26. Key take-outs Post EU Referendum, Britain is divided – a nation of people who describe themselves as ‘haves’ and ‘have nots' • In our poll 44% describe themselves as ‘haves’ and 56% as ‘have nots’ • ‘Have nots’ were much more likely to vote Brexit 1 The public’s biggest priorities post-Brexit are focused on the NHS and immigration • They also believe politicians should be focused on post Brexit economy/trade, support for working families, new homes, and ‘bringing Britain back together’ 2 3 For most, the jury is out on Theresa May • Though many see reason to feel cautiously positive – describing her as a steady hand and a change from Eton-dominated politics • Others are impatient for change and growing concerned that May is slow to take action
  • 27. Where people are starting from
  • 28. The public finds it increasingly difficult to talk about ‘one’ Britain – the word that they most associate is ‘divided’ I think the country’s not broken but fractured…after the referendum as well, you were labelled as either racist or unpatriotic depending on which side you were. Harlow, Male Divided – the 52% and 48%, the country is very much unsure what to do. I voted to stay, and I’m appalled that we are going to leave the EU, I’m appalled that some of the people that voted won’t even be here. And I think it’s the worst decisions we’ve made in 50 years. Leamington Spa, Male I love the idea of diversity in Britain and I actually embrace that but I feel that these days there’s quite an undercurrent of xenophobia, and that makes me feel that Britain is broken. An undercurrent of intolerance. Leamington Spa, Female
  • 29. Most of all, Britain is seen as divided between ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ ‘Have nots’ describe: • A powerful sense of injustice about their situation in life • The feeling that systems are in place which work in favour of elites and against their best interests ‘Haves’ describe: • Awareness of different levels of wealth and success in the UK • And a growing contingent of people who feel ‘left behind’ and disenchanted • Themselves as different to that group - and are grateful that that’s the case We as a country have created a society of levels. And this won’t change, because politicians, most politicians are millionaires. So how are they representative of us? When they’re making laws. The rich people could make change but won’t because the system works for them Harlow, Male My family come from Stoke on Trent, and it’s a really impoverished city. Their outlook on the EU was so different to my friends here, and in London, and these are my cousins, the same family, age. It’s Cities vs Rural, but also cities with outdated industries that have no regeneration. My cousin by the time she was 26 had been made redundant 4 times, in an industry our family had worked in for generations. It’s so different to my life. Leamington Spa, Female
  • 30. The British public is more likely to identify with the ‘have not’ than the ‘have’ category Have 44%Have not 56% Q. People often talk about our divided society nowadays and how Britain is now a nation of “Haves” and the "Have nots". Which group do you feel best describes you? Base: Representative sample of the British public
  • 31. 59% 50% 35% 30% 33% 57% 41% 50% 65% 70% 67% 43% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Have But within this there are significant differences in terms of age, geography and socioeconomic grade Disenchantment increases with age up until pension age AGE Men and women are more or less equally likely to feel disenchantedSEX Disenchantment is – unsurprisingly – higher the lower your SEG SEG There is a clear North/South divide – most strikingly in the NE versus SE GEOG- RAPHY 55% 45% 57% 43% Have Have not 77% of people living in the North East identify as a ‘have not’ 46% of people living in the South East identify as a ‘have not’ 68 % 32 % A B 48 % 52 % C 1 38 % 62 % C 2 18 % 82 % D E Have Have not Q. People often talk about our divided society nowadays and how Britain is now a nation of “Haves” and the "Have nots". Which group do you feel best describes you? Base: Representative sample of the British public excluding those who say ‘don’t know’ (n=1,384)
  • 32. And by political leaning and beliefs Conservative leaners are MUCH less likely to feel disenchanted than Labour/UKIP supporters PAST VOTE 66% are ‘haves’ 34% are ‘have nots’ 32% are ‘haves’ 68% are ‘have nots’ 33% are ‘haves’ 67% are ‘have nots’ ‘Leavers’ are more likely to feel left behind than ‘remainers’ EU REF 51 % 49 % Remai n voters 38 % 62 % Leave voters Have Have not
  • 33. People in different parts of Britain are living totally different lives… Kerry, Cleaner, Waitress and Nanny, Harlow • Single mum of a 10 year old boy, and rents a room in her mum’s house • Works three jobs to cover all the bill and childcare and even then has very little to spare at the end of the month • Feels that people like her are ignored and that more money is spent on services for immigrant communities Charity should start at home. There are a lot of people struggling, and they can’t get any help. I work 3 jobs and I can’t afford somewhere to live. I live with my mum, with my 10 year old son in a room, we’re earning just enough to get by. If I didn’t have my mum’s support I couldn’t manage. Martin, Civil Servant, Leamington Spa • Is proud of what he’s achieved in life: was the first person in his family to go to university and has built a comfortable life by working hard • Felt pleased when his oldest daughter was accepted in to university, but worries about her future beyond that • Blames struggles for young people getting onto the property ladder on poor management by successive politicians I came from a working class background and I went to university and it took me to a life that I wouldn’t have had. I think now young people are looking at the debt and are put off.
  • 34. …and holding totally different views of the same issue Steve, Builder, Harlow • Has lived in Harlow all his life, and describes the area as in decline – especially public services • Thinks that places like East London are now too dangerous for White British people as the Muslim community is so dominant • Feels he can no longer fly an England flag when the football is on because of political correctness gone mad Chris, HR Manager, Leamington Spa • Feels optimistic about his local area and the economy • Thinks that multiculturalism has been a great thing for the UK and has made it a more interesting and vibrant place to live • Says that most immigrants he has met or worked with have been hardworking, polite and a great addition to the country – much harder working than ‘white benefit scroungers’ There are British citizens who aren’t working and there are people coming in and it’s nothing to do with colour or religion, it’s to do with whether you’re willing to do certain jobs for that amount of money. British culture is fading away, the influx of the migrants is changing things in Britain. People who don’t want to integrate. When they come over here, and they can’t speak English properly, and you can’t talk to them at work, you have to get someone to interpret.
  • 35. Does it matter if Britain is divided?
  • 36. It does matter to the ‘have nots’ because they feel they are losing out to an indistinguishable class of elites who are just out for themselves… ‘Them’.. they don’t get our lives, they don’t live in our shoes. The working lower class voted out, and the upper class voted in because they’ve got the money and they have more to lose. It affects them more than it affects you. People with money. They’re panicking more that we’re out [of the EU]. Harlow, Female The ‘big people’, they think that it’s a united country, because they don’t know about our lives. Harlow, Male They don’t know about anything about real life, their daily shop probably cost what our weekly shop costs. Harlow, Female When it comes to these tax laws, and you tax these higher earners they’ll go “so long”…it’s those higher earners that donate to the Conservative party, who own the big newspapers. It sounds good taxing them more but how are you going to do it? Harlow, Male
  • 37. It matters to ‘haves’ too, who are angry and embarrassed about a group of people they see as ignorant and uneducated The thing about Wales is they all voted out, but they’re reliant on an industry that – unfortunately – doesn’t work, and people need to understand that this industry doesn’t work anymore. And yet the EU was plugging money into Wales! Leamington Spa, Female I was always proud of Britian’s tolerance but the Referendum campaign became ‘if you vote to leave all the immigrants will go’. A lot of the guys I know from working class areas, are very much “the immigrants ruin everything so they should go away”. Leamington Spa, Male When those people get angry they will turn out in their droves to show their displeasure. We’re not the political power anymore. The same people chose Boaty McBoatface at the end of the day. Leamington Spa, Male I’m still appalled that we ever had the vote personally, I still can’t believe they gave the public the chance to vote on it. Most people don’t know enough and don’t pay any attention to the facts. Leamington Spa, Male
  • 38. Brexit is viewed as bringing these long- simmering divides to a head Seen by ‘have nots’ as: • Ordinary people triumphing over elites • An opportunity to fight back against the personal and local impacts of immigration • Being given licence to say things they wouldn't say previously because of fears of being ‘un-P.C.’ Seen by ‘haves’ as: • Vulnerable downtrodden people who have been manipulated • Scapegoating immigration because of problems in their lives • Threatening dearly held values like tolerance and diversity We as a country have created a society of levels. And this won’t change, because politicians, most politicians are millionaires. So how are they representative of us? When they’re making laws. The rich people could make change but won’t because the system works for them Harlow, Male My family come from Stoke on Trent, and it’s a really impoverished city. Their outlook on the EU was so different to my friends here, and in London, and these are my cousins, the same family, age. It’s Cities vs Rural, but also cities with outdated industries that have no regeneration. My cousin by the time she was 26 had been made redundant 4 times, in an industry our family had worked in for generations. It’s so different to my life. Leamington Spa, Female
  • 39. What should Brexit Britain look like?
  • 40. Everyone agrees that there needs to be change – otherwise Britain will become more and more divided • Brexit is perceived as a catalyst for change • Even remainers agree that ‘Brexit must mean Brexit’ • Critical for democracy • And they are united in feeling fed up of slow progress • Politicians seeming to go on holiday rather than focus on the task at hand • Done right, Brexit is seen as an opportunity to bring Britain back together • It is hoped that Brexit can lead to a fairer and more equal Britain Make Britain better, make it a fairer system. People who are working basically have to fend for themselves. I split up with my husband, my baby was 3 weeks old, I couldn’t pay the mortgage, but because I was employed I got nothing. Harlow, Female Do something! They’ve not done anything so far, a couple of them have taken some holidays. At the point of the biggest decision this country has ever made. Harlow, Male
  • 41. And re Brexit, some unanimity emerges… Everyone says they want clear and concrete plan as soon as possible With clear next steps, timescales and accountability All the speeches, they sound very good. I’d like them to give a timescale of when things are going to happen. Not just taking quotes out of the sky, give a rough idea of when they’re going to try to achieve these. So we can have more faith in what they’re telling us. Harlow, Male I just want a plan - this is the only time I’ve ever said this sentence, but I’d quite like to see a PowerPoint presentation of the next steps, of what’s going to happen. Leamington Spa, Male
  • 42. But there is little understanding of the trade offs that will follow Brexit • People no longer believe that the pledge of £350 million extra for the NHS will happen • ‘Have nots’ have little concern for the trade vs immigration trade off • ‘Haves’ are clear that trade is more important – although acknowledge that continuing high levels of immigration will not be accepted • ‘Have nots’ are adamant that immigration is the priority and feel no connection to discussions over trade deals. It seems illogical to them that immigration would not have to decreased now • ‘Have nots’ expect that Brexit and lower immigration will free up the money needed to improve public services No one round this table owns a multimillion pound company, or is trading in stocks and shares. It shows again that in Westminster, it’s about them lining their pockets, it’s not about us. It could well be about jobs. But they’re not hopping out their seats to bail out a steel mill in wales, but if it’s a bank, they’ve got their money invested in it and they care Harlow, Male Well you could say, we’re not going to have any immigration, but there’s no certainty that that’s achievable, so let’s go for trade unless there’s a plan otherwise. Leamington Spa, Female
  • 43. 30% 20% 10% 8% 6% 6% Deliver a well- funded and efficient NHS Significantly reduce immigration Negotiate strong trade deals for Britain as we leave the EU Better support for struggling working families Building 1m new homes, with half to be council houses Bringing Britain together again following the European referendum Q1. Below are some policy ideas that have been proposed by leading politicians... Which one is the most important for you? Immigration control, there’s a lot of things that they need to do, but the first thing she needs to do is control the population, help people get a job and somewhere to live Harlow, Male There’s a lot within the cog of the NHS which is wrong, but to keep cutting and to keep cutting… I see people on their knees on a daily basis. It’s not about increasing the spending, it’s actually looking at the management and making it work better Leamington Spa, Female The public’s top priorities for the country are focused on the NHS and immigration The policies that people don’t prioritise include: Reintroducing grammar schools, improving the transport infrastructure outside the South East, cracking down on the pay of top executives, abolishing tuition fees and re-introducing the 50p top rate of tax
  • 44. These priorities are shared by ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ Q1. Below are some policy ideas that have been proposed by leading politicians... Which one is the most important for you? Immigration first – and the rest will flow, it will free up more money Harlow, Female The focus has got to be on supporting people who are already working rather than benefits for the unemployed Leamington Spa, Female 6% 6% 5% 16% 18% 35% 6% 7% 9% 6% 22% 29% Bringing Britain together again following the European referendum Building 1m new homes, with half to be council houses Better support for struggling working families Negotiate strong trade deals for Britain as we leave the EU Significantly reduce immigration Deliver a well-funded and efficient NHS Have Nots Haves
  • 45. 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% Put workers onto the boards of big companies Reintroduce grammar schools Improving transport infrastructure to improve economy outside… Reintroduce 50p top rate of tax for people earning more than £150k Reducing the deficit in Britain's public sector finances Abolish university tuition fees and bring back maintenance grants Have Nots Haves And equally, ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ are less interested in the same policies Q1. Below are some policy ideas that have been proposed by leading politicians... Which one is the most important for you? I think it gives nearly rich people a free education. I’d love for my kids to go to grammar school, but I don’t think it’s fair. Leamington Spa, Male Policies that affect ‘other people’ (e.g. taxing the highest earners) are felt to have too little impact on people’s own lives to be a priority by both groups
  • 46. Immigration is the lens through which people see each of these policies and issues • It is seen as the main cause of the ‘overburdened’ NHS, rather than a lack of funding • Everyone agrees that immigration must be better controlled and they want a clear and concrete plan for what this will look like • ‘Have nots’ are adamant that controlling immigration would solve many of the problems in the UK • ‘Haves’ agree that immigration needs to be controlled, so that only the ‘best’ and most appropriate foreign workers are allowed to live in the UK • An Australian points based system is a popular example given for how to control immigration successfully It’s who you bring in rather than the number – it’s got to be like the Australians with a point system. It would solve a lot of problems rather than letting everyone in who becomes unemployed and is on benefits. Leamington Spa, Female For me looking at a lot of them, the money’s got to come from somewhere, and the only way you can get that is migration, stopping people coming to claim money then disappearing. We can put money in to schools, the NHS. Harlow, Male
  • 47. Is Theresa May the right person to lead Britain through Brexit?
  • 48. For many voters, the jury is out on May • For some, it is too soon to judge Theresa May as Prime Minister or to see if she’ll be different to other politicians • Too little has happened and she has had too little time to prove herself • But many voters – particularly women – do see reason to feel cautiously optimistic • In contrast to the perception of David Cameron as an out of touch Etonian, May appears more in touch with the average person Nothing she could do or say in those 5 minutes on the telly would make me think that this one’s different. It’s going to be actions over the next 5 years that matter. Harlow, Male I just don’t know enough about her – I’m just watching her avidly to see whether she delivers on her promises. She obviously thought very carefully about her speech but she’s made some interesting appointments. It’s watch and wait really. Leamington Spa, Female David Cameron sometimes talks like he’s above everybody, he couldn’t explain the struggles of what normal people are going through. They’re from the same party, but she talks with more compassion, she comes across as a warm person, addressing people as individuals. More sincere. Harlow, Female
  • 49. Her ‘One Nation’ speech is felt to indicate that things might be moving in the right directionWhile the speech is little known, when shown the clip most voters are positive, particularly on people left behind… “Make Britain a country that works not for a privileged few, but for every one of us” “Life is much harder than many people in Westminster realise” “I know that sometimes life can be a struggle” “The government I lead will be driven not by the interests of the privileged few, but by yours” “If you’re at a state school, you’re less likely to reach the top professions than if you’re educated privately” “If you’re just managing, I want to address you directly” “You have a job but you don’t always have job security” “We will do everything we can to help anybody, whatever your background, to go as far as your talents will take you” She showed empathy, when she was talking about we know your lives are hard Harlow, Female She mentioned ‘privileged few’ on at least a few occasions so they’re showing that they realise that there’s anger and anti- establishment feeling. Leamington Spa, MaleIt gives me goosebumps – I thought it was brilliant. Stunning stuff. Leamington Spa, Female
  • 50. And on the public’s top priorities, Theresa May is trusted to do a better job than Jeremy Corbyn – even with the NHS 38% 46% 58% 30% 12% 12% 1% 9% 2% 31% 33% 28% Deliver a well-funded and efficient NHS Significantly reduce immigrationNegotiate strong trade deals for Britain as we leave the EU Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn I don't agree with this policy Don't know Q2. For each of these policies who would you trust most to do a good job Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn? I don’t think there’s an alternative. I’ve never voted blue in my life but there’s no one else out there who makes me feel passionate the way Theresa May does. Leamington Spa, Female There’s no opposition at the moment, so the Tories can do what they want Leamington Spa, Male Number 1 priority: Number 2 priority: Number 3 priority:
  • 51. But voters now want to see action – and are unanimous that delivering Brexit will be May’s biggest and most important test • Those who know a little about her see May as a potentially strong negotiator • May is perceived as tough and no- nonsense from her time as Home Secretary. This is seen as a valuable asset to have during Brexit negotiations • But those who know less worry that she is just another politician • Who will lie, let them down and fail to deliver on their promises I think she’ll be a much stronger person – she’s shown it already in her role as Home Secretary. She was very adamant in things that she said and she stood by them. I think Ken Clarke was caught on TV saying she was a very strong character. Leamington Spa, Female You see that from politicians all the time – saying they’re being inclusive when they’re not. Harlow, Male
  • 52. A plan to bring Britain back together means 3 things: A Brexit Action Plan • Timetable • Impacts spelt out 1 Immigration promises kept • Points (or similar)2 3A fair deal for the (deserving) ‘have nots’
  • 53. One nation divided?The challenge for Britain beyond Brexit Heather Stewart, Political Editor atThe Guardian Deborah Mattinson, Founding Director of BritainThinks Cordelia Hay, Associate Director at BritainThinks Tim Montgomerie, Columnist atTheTimes MattWhittaker, Chief Economist Resolution Foundation Chair:Torsten Bell, Director of the Resolution Foundation 53