From Poverty to Power is essential reading for anyone involved in change processes around the world. A new take on development for the 21st century, Oxfam International’s new book provides critical insights into the massive human and economic costs of inequality and poverty and proposes realistic solutions. This presentation was given by the author Duncan Green presentation at the CIVICUS World Assembly in Glasgow, June 2008.

1. Book image Introduction to From Poverty to Power: How Active Citizens and Effective States Can Change the World by Duncan Green, Head of Research at Oxfam GB June 2008

2. Introduction title Introduction: The Unequal World

3. What is it? A book (300+ pages) Spin off print and web materials A ‘reflection’, i.e. not a strategy, campaign briefing or agreed Oxfam International policy position Comprehensive – a ‘state of the world’ publication

4. Who’s the target audience? Next generation leaders and opinion formers, North and South Current development practitioners, policy makers, influencers

5. What’s the vision? “ Women and men in communities everywhere who are equipped with education, enjoying good health, with rights, dignity and voice - in charge of their own destinies ”

6. So what’s the problem? Inequality

7. These children’s life chances are already shaped by their: Sex Race Nationality Parental income Parental education

8. Inequality is falling in some countries… 0 -1 -2 -3 Annual % Gini Change

9. …but rising in many more 4 3 2 1 0 Annual % Gini Change

10. Global inequality is obscene Ending poverty would cost $300bn – a third of global military spending Top 500 billionaires earn as much as the 416 million poorest people Average global income is $9,500 – 25 times more than that of the bottom billion

11. What’s happening with inequality?

12. The answer? Redistribution Of Power

13. The answer? Redistribution Of Opportunities

14. The answer? Redistribution Of Assets

15. What's needed: Active Citizens

16. What's needed: Effective States

17. The urgency of now Climate change makes development more urgent than ever It means dirty growth is no longer an option We need to move poor countries onto a clean growth path as soon as possible If we fail, and carbon becomes either forbidden or too expensive, poor countries and communities may be stuck outside the ‘carbon curtain’ in a new Dark Age

18. The urgency of now “ Human progress is neither automatic nor inevitable... Over the bleached bones of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic words: Too late. Martin Luther King, 1968 ”

19. Section 2 Power and Politics

20. Main messages Rights and dignity are a crucial part of development and well-being Achieving these requires involvement in power and politics Ability to exercise rights requires access to essential services, information and knowledge Active citizenship, including civil society organization, is essential to development Democracy is beneficial on both intrinsic and instrumental basis Effective states play a central role in development

21. And rights are about power - Picture Development is about rights

22. Development is about rights Rights are long-term guarantees that allow right- holders to put demands on duty bearers Capabilities = rights + ability to exercise them Involves crucial shift from treating poor people as ‘beneficiaries’ to seeing them as active agents Rights = lawyers and scholars; development = economists and engineers

23. And rights are about power Power over: the power of the strong over the weak Power to: the capability to decide actions and carry them out Power with: collective power, through organisation, solidarity, and joint action Power within: personal self-confidence

24. How change happens: the Chiquitanos

25. How change happens: the Chiquitanos 3 July 2007: Chiquitanos win title to 1m hectares of traditional lands in Eastern Bolivia Lived in near-feudal conditions up to 1980s Activism began on margins of football league Marches to La Paz forged links with highland Indians and built ethnic identity Chiquitanos elected as mayors and senators Evo Morales’ 2006 election, the turning point

26. First build the people… Education, healthcare, water, sanitation and housing are basic building blocks of a decent life Education: need improvements in both quality and quantity (esp. for girls) Health: maternal mortality as example of gender and wealth-based inequalities Control over fertility is both a rights and health issue The state must be central to provision

27. Then ensure access to knowledge and information Steady improvements in access to knowledge, e.g. radio, mobiles, internet Technology holds enormous potential But current incentives bias R&D against the needs of the poor And intellectual property rules act as a barrier to technology transfer (pharmaceuticals, biopiracy)

28. And the right to organise Increasing range and complexity of civil society organizations Role of CSOs as catalysts and watchdogs Intrinsic and instrumental benefits of CSO involvement Civil society activism waxes and wanes Civil society is very involved in decentralization processes

29. How change happens: winning women’s rights in Morocco

30. How change happens: winning women’s rights in Morocco 2004: Moroccan parliament approves new Islamic family code that strengthens women’s rights Changes driven by Union de l’Action Feminine, working within Islam, e.g. quoting Koran Counterattack from conservative activists and clerics Women’s movement used insider-outsider tactics - petitions and marches to fend off conservatives King formed commission which led to law change

31. Property rights matter Property rights matter to poor people Women often excluded from full rights to property Many systems of property rights, e.g. customary law Role of property rights in development: important but not a panacea (de Soto) and can have negative impacts

32. The importance of land reform to equality and growth

33. Democracy works Spread of democracy was a feature of the 20th century Democracies Produce more predictable long run growth rates Produce greater short term stability Handle shocks much better Deliver more equality Democracy in many countries is ‘exclusionary’, with flawed party systems and patronage politics But for most people remains the ‘least worst’ alternative

34. Corruption is often linked to natural resources Corruption is both a cause and effect of poverty Impact on development varies (10% v 100%) Active citizens can curb corruption, while rich countries and corporations must also put their houses in order Natural resources can undermine the social contract between state and citizen But some countries have managed natural resource wealth well (e.g. Botswana, Malaysia)

35. States are at the heart of development (and growing in importance) Nation states play a core role in providing essential services, rule of law, economic stability and upgrading Weak or absent states are often worse than bad ones, but can be turned around, often after a ‘shock’ Looking at East Asian tigers, successful states: Govern for the future Promote growth Start with equity Integrate with the global economy, but discriminate Guarantee health and education for all Taxation is central to the citizen-state relationship Globalization and orthodoxy make building effective states harder

36. Dilemma: are Effective States compatible with Active Citizens?

37. Dilemma: are Effective States compatible with Active Citizens? Aka would you rather be poor in China or Bolivia? Nation builders are often undemocratic But selection bias excludes states that are now developed Autocrats often fail and civil society is less tolerant of ‘benevolent dictators’ Democracies: Produce more predictable long run growth rates Produce greater short term stability Handle shocks much better Deliver more equality

38. Section 3 Poverty and Wealth

39. Main messages Orthodox economics must be expanded to incorporate environment and unpaid work Markets, and poor peoples’ involvement in them, are evolving rapidly, raising new threats and opportunities Redistributing power in markets is essential to reducing inequality and overcoming poverty Redistribution is not the only issue: effective states are needed to generate growth where it benefits poor people most, provide infrastructure, and build national technological capabilities

40. Economics for the 21st Century Orthodox economics and its indicators (income GDP etc.) lead to biased policies and blind spots in crucial areas of poverty and inequality A new economics of human sustainability must address: Environmental constraints and sustainability Non-monetary economics, e.g. unpaid women’s work Weighting policies and outcomes for equity Focus on well-being, not just income

41. Economics for the 21st Century

43. Making agriculture pro-poor Small farmer based agricultural growth has led to take-off in Viet Nam, India, etc. Requires both Effective States and Active Citizens acquiring power in markets Active Citizens: producer organization, consumers Effective States: access to credit, investment, pro-poor technologies Good news: commodity prices, biofuels (perhaps) and shift to low carbon production Challenges: supermarketization; outmigration Dilemma: food v feed v fuel – can we have all 3?

44. How change happens: winning ‘pond rights’ in India

45. How change happens: winning ‘pond rights’ in India Fishing ponds crucial to 45,000 families in Bundelkhand Technology change (new fish varieties and stocking) prompted a new wave of seizures by landlords Protests got support from state government for fishing cooperatives – basis for mobilisation Dirty tricks and some violence were a turning point NGOs brokered relations with police and politicians 100 ponds now under fishers’ control

46. Decent work

47. Decent work Several trends are driving up inequality Flexibilization and rise of the informal economy Downward pressure on labour rights Incorporation of women brings mix of costs and benefits What needs to change: Rebuild and change trade unions Reform supply chain management Recognize role of unpaid work

48. Private sector, public interest Private firms create jobs, buy and sell to the poor, pay taxes and generate externalities The human impact of any firm is firstly determined by sector, but within that different firms can choose to be more or less pro-poor TNCs differ from large national firms on linkages, technology, capital flows and employment Active Citizens ensure the private sector benefits the poor (trade unions, consumer organizations) Effective States need to regulate and refocus attention on SMEs and national capital

49. Trade and development Trade is booming Trade can be a crucial tool in overcoming poverty Rigged rules and double standards Official story in conflict with evidence on trade liberalization: Some liberalization-led take offs in agriculture In manufacturing protection and state-led industrialization is the norm Liberalization as an outcome not an initial condition Rise of China could change the script, by overcoming commodity trap and kicking away the ladder from other developing countries

50. Average annual growth 1990-2005

51. Making growth work for development Growth has always been central to development – redistribution on its own seldom works But growth is becoming more disequalizing and less effective at reducing poverty So how to make growth work for poor people?

52. How change happens: Botswana Should be a basket case: small, arid, land-locked and dependent on diamonds Instead is Africa’s most enduring success story – GDP per capita is up 100x since 1966 Reasons include traditional inclusive governance system, leadership, hands-on role for the state, lucky timing on diamonds and good use of aid and technical assistance

53. Section 4 Risk and Vulnerability

54. Main messages Risk and vulnerability are central to the experience of being poor Shocks reinforce each other and have long-term impacts on health and well-being Real (human) security lies through a combination of empowerment and protection by effective, accountable states But the concept of security has been devalued by the war on terror

55. Causes of vulnerability

56. Causes of death worldwide

57. Social protection is spreading Social assistance and social insurance One of most effective ways to reduce vulnerability, esp. for the chronic poor (elderly, disabled etc.) Response to failure of targeted safety nets and food aid Social protection bridges gap between emergencies and development – challenge to Oxfam South Africa, Brazil arguing for universal basic income guarantee – could it work at a global level?

58. How change happens: India’s employment guarantee scheme

59. How change happens: India’s employment guarantee scheme All rural Indians are now guaranteed 100 days work a year Grew from activist legal campaigns in Rajasthan and spread of ‘rights consciousness’ Congress adopted scheme in 2004 election manifesto, not expecting to win Sonia Gandhi and activism were crucial to ensure implementation after the election

60. Finance and vulnerability

61. Finance and vulnerability Access to credit, insurance and savings are critical in coping with shocks Microcredit is booming and going commercial, and is now being followed by other microfinance 8 out of 10 borrowers are women, with very high repayment rates (98% according to Grameen) Has microfinance been oversold? Indebtedness, repayment burden and ‘forced borrowing’

62. Hunger and famine

63. Hunger and famine Until current price crisis, hunger stuck at 850 million, but famine deaths have fallen Hunger reflects power and inequality - 400m people in developing countries are now obese Undernourishment in foetus and infancy are particularly damaging Dealing with hunger relies primarily on self reliance and effective accountable states Current crisis driven by switch to meat, biofuels, climate change, oil prices, and possibly speculation

64. Health and maternal mortality: one woman dies needlessly every minute A woman’s risk of dying ranges from one in seven in Niger to one in 47,600 in Ireland Children who have lost their mothers are up to ten times more likely to die prematurely More progress on other health issues, e.g. access to water and sanitation, immunization, life expectancy ‘First world’ ailments such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer are on the rise Answer lies in investing in public health systems

65. Pandemics such as HIV will persist, but can be contained Illness and death drives individuals and families into poverty At societal level, pandemics can set development back decades New ‘zoonotic’ diseases may follow HIV in years to come (e.g. avian flu, SARS) Active Citizenship is particularly important for diseases that have no cure, like HIV Political leadership can make or break response (Brazil v South Africa) Global collaboration showed effectiveness in case of SARS outbreak of 2002/3

66. How change happens: the Treatment Action Campaign

67. How change happens: the Treatment Action Campaign TAC is an organization of HIV positive people in South Africa Led a campaign against big pharmaceuticals in court cases of 2001, then moved on to South African government, demanding access to antiretrovirals Used legal challenges, official participatory structures, outsider tactics and alliances Partial progress in changing government policy

68. Natural disasters Deaths have halved over last 30 years (to 200 a day) due to risk reduction such as early warning systems Natural disasters highlight inequality– hit poor countries and communities hardest Disaster preparedness and risk reduction require Active Citizens and Effective States Improving ‘downward accountability’ is a priority

69. Climate change is already hitting poor countries and people Rich countries created the problem; poor countries/communities will be worst hit through drought, floods, disease and falling agricultural yields Impacts already occurring (e.g. for pastoralists) Helping victims adapt will be essential whatever happens on reducing GHG emissions (mitigation) Will also mean ‘climate proofing’ existing development programmes This requires technology transfer, self organization, diversifying livelihoods and effective state support i.e. climate change means that good development becomes more urgent than ever

70. Conflict is both symptom and cause of poverty and inequality Violence, poverty and inequality are interwoven – against women, crime, abuse by authorities, civil war Progress on gender-based violence through legislation and women’s organization After bloody 20th C, post Cold War has left rump of 30 ‘poverty conflicts’ mainly in Africa Conflict = failure of politics, but some have acquired economic logic of their own Active Citizens: self organization to reduce conflict Effective States: including providing livelihoods for ex-combatants

71. Dilemma: shocks and change History shows that shocks and their aftermath are crucial ‘moments of opportunity’ for change But when shocks hit, outside ‘change agents’ like Oxfam either leave or go quiet! How could we change our response to shocks in order to promote positive change as well as humanitarian relief?

72. Section 5 The International System

73. Main messages International system must do more of some things, less of others. This includes: More attention to governance of global public goods and bads, including climate change, migration, taxation, and knowledge ‘Stop doing harm’ on issues such as trade, arms trade, corruption, climate change Support national development processes, by backing Active Citizens and Effective States Democracy and accountability in global institutions

74. Global governance growing but no overall plan. Ideally, role includes: Regulating the global economy Co-ordinating big countries (e.g. via G8) Redistributing wealth, technology, and knowledge Averting environmental or health threats Avoiding/managing war Preventing powerful countries or corporations from harming weaker and poorer ones Protecting the most vulnerable Changing attitudes and beliefs

75. World Bank and IMF 25 years of adjustment-based lending are coming to an end (thankfully). IFIs are at crossroads Failure and eclipse of Washington Consensus, but Bank has changed more than the Fund Washington changed more than ‘the field’ New direction should involve: Focus on global public goods Separate policy advice from lending Return focus to rich country policy failure Reform institutions (starting with the bosses)

76. Finance

77. Finance $3 trillion crosses borders every day (100 x trade) Finance most volatile form of cross border flow and least suitable for rapid liberalization Financial crises becoming deeper and more frequent, usually followed by massive bailouts, ratcheting up inequality Capital controls can be useful tools, but are being pegged back by BITs, RTAs International action is needed to reduce tax evasion/avoidance (est. $385bn per year) International taxation (e.g. carbon, arms, Tobin) and global tax institutions could raise $, or agree global floor on corporation tax

78. Trade: rigged rules and double standards Prevalent in 5 areas: barriers, subsidies, forced liberalization, intellectual property, and migration Global focus on WTO has hidden growing importance of RTAs and BITs with ‘WTO plus’ clauses Paralysis of Doha is a symptom of shift to multi-polar world v mercantilist negotiating Trade realities remain more important than trade rules TNCs have imbalance of rights v responsibilities

79. Intellectual property: knowledge protectionism IP = patents, copyrights, and trademarks A developed, innovating “North” and a developing, imitating “South” makes knowledge flows crucial Balance between encouraging innovation and spreading knowledge destroyed by TRIPs In 2005, developing countries paid out $17bn in royalty and licence fees TRIPS keeps medicines expensive Biopiracy is widespread Replace TRIPs with an access to knowledge convention?

80. Migration A common and effective response to poverty The last great protectionism (along with knowledge) Those who do migrate face barriers and mistreatment Current remittance flows to developing countries = $240bn – poverty reduction and protection against shocks Objections are often misplaced, but a political minefield Best option: enhanced temporary migration Do we need a World Migration Organization?

81. Harnessing the transnationals Privileges and powers but few responsibilities Growth driven by changes in business, technology, and politics Concerns include value chains, labour rights, extractive industries, and corruption Good progress at UN and sectoral level, e.g. anti-corruption conventions Disputed progress on ‘corporate social responsibility’ Rise in southern TNCs e.g. in telecoms, mining, forestry, infrastructure

82. Aid Successes: Marshall Plan, take-off countries, EU structural funds Altruism, hubris, and self interest Turnaround since 2000, but donors backtracking on promises and serious quality problems How can aid support development? Do: fund watchdogs, fund long-term, support state capacity, put government in the driving seat, ensure downwards accountability Don’t: impose conditions, support parallel systems, and poach staff

83. How change happens: the Gleneagles agreement

84. How change happens: the Gleneagles agreement 2005 G8 a high point for aid campaigners: leaders agreed to raise aid levels by $50bn by 2010 and deepen debt write-off Despite subsequent backsliding, still an important statement of intent Combination of government (e.g. Commission for Africa) and civil society activism (Make Poverty History and celebrities) Repetition important at G8 (cf. climate change) Tsunami and London bombings were factors

85. Dilemma: is aid like oil? Impact on Policy (conditionality) Institutions (transaction costs, paying the piper) Politics (severing the social contract) How big is the political deficit, and how can good aid overcome it?

86. International NGOs Growth and shift from project to advocacy, and from national to global 3 main functions: implementers, catalysts, partners Major challenges: Accountability Relationship to local activists and NGOs Funding/profile driven Relationship to the state Make the UN look streamlined… Being sucked into service delivery Too cautious

87. Climate change: a global problem needs global solutions Mitigation involves combination of standards, subsidies and taxes Kyoto II = key global governance event in coming years Adaptation funding also vital, Oxfam estimates $50bn a year needed Concerns on carbon trading as main response

88. Adaptation funding responsibilities

89. Dilemma: are there environmental limits to growth? Increasing environmental constraints on growth have profound implications for economic policy and the battle against inequality Carbon intensity of growth and its efficiency in reducing poverty and inequality will become more critical Can the system achieve a low carbon growth model and if not, what has to change?

90. Carbon intensity: falling too slowly, and has now gone into reverse

91. 15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16 Current path = “ramp” 16 GtC/y Fuel Switching (1) CO2 Capture & Storage (3) Renewable Fuels & Electricity (4) Forest and Soil Storage (2) Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4) Nuclear Fission (1) Eight “wedges” Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today Historical emissions 8 Flat path 1.6 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 What level of technology transfer is required?

92. The humanitarian system Only 6% of total aid Improving but still a mess. Main failings: Too little too late, but CERF is hopeful Distributed according to CNN or geopolitics, rather than need Too many organizations. UN particularly byzantine Humanitarian aid warped by food aid – expensive, demeaning and can undermine local agriculture

93. Peace and peace-keeping ‘Responsibility to Protect’ – an important UN achievement Force should only be last resort UN blue helmets up 6 x since 1998 Rich countries give $, poor ones give soldiers Does UN need a standing military force? Arms Trade Treaty needed War on terror undermines peace-keeping/R2P

94. How change happens: the landmines ban

95. How change happens: the landmines ban 1997 ban treaty has led to a sharp fall in deaths. In 2005 only Myanmar, Russia and Nepal acknowledged using them and producer countries were down from 50 to 13 Ban rode post Cold War wave of optimism International Campaign to Ban Landmines worked closely with a handful of governments, e.g. Canada, Norway, Austria, and South Africa Gained momentum by moving outside UN system and insisting on total ban – no watering down

96. Conclusion A New Deal For A New Century

98. Solve global problems that need global solutions