Session 1 - Keynote Presentation by Jan Rotmans

1. twitter.com/janrotmans
Transition to a low-carbon economy:
how to accelerate the transition?
Paris, 14 December 2015

2. Paris Climate Accord:
historical landmark

3. the world has chosen for renewable energy
the world has adopted a new, clean economy
the world has formulated sharp climate goals
Climate Accord as Game Changer

4. Global Divide
Od Economy New Economy
fossil fuels renewables
carbon based biomass based
linear circular
centralized decentralized
incremental innovation radical innovation

5. fossil fuels are associated with financial risk
global divestment in fossil fuels
stranded fossil fuel assets
Fossil Breakdown

6. transition to new economy
won’t be easy and smooth

7. Transition
fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in
societal (sub)system
– structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure (market,
consumption, production), institutions (rules, regulations, actors)
– culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectives, paradigms
– practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling, at the individual level
incumbent structure, culture and practices need to be
broken down and new ones need to be built up

8. Transition = Power Shift
regime: dominant structure, culture and practices
with power and vested interests
niche: emerging, divergent structure, culture and
practices at a small scale level
niche wants to develop power and take over incumbent regime
regime protects itself against this through absorption,
assimilation or elimination of niches
transition = regime-change = power shift

9. Through development stagePre-development stage
Renewables
Decentralized
Bottom-up
Fossil
Centralized
Top-down
Time
Sustainable Energy System
We are here
Tipping Point
Transition to Sustainable Energy

10. The Global Energy Transition
has reached the tipping point

11. Tipping Point Phase
chaos
conflicts
battlefield

12. Chaos & Turbulence
1 year ago: high oil price
by now: extremely low oil prices
2 years ago: sustainable new capacity > fossil new capacity
3 years ago: shalegas ‘revolution’
by now: financial problems & withdrawal
4 years ago: Fukushima
by now: nuclear pathwork

13. Tipping Point Indicators
coal fire plants are phased out worldwide
decoupling of economic growth and CO2-emissions
big European energy companies are in trouble
solar PV about 80% cheaper than 7 years ago
grid parity: solar & wind compete with fossil fuels in many regions
since 2013 more clean energy was installed than fossil fuel

15. Conflicts
Ukraine crisis: Russia versus Europe on gas
China vs Europa conflict on solar panels
America vs China conflict on solar panels
Germany versus other European countries

16. “ speed by which Europe builds wind farms
and solar panels needs to be delayed.
The situation is untenable, because it kills
our business ”
Gérard Mestrallet, CEO GDF/Suez

17. Global Energy Battle Field
market value RWE has decreased by 85% since 2008
[55-8 billion euro]
3 out of 5 energy companies might die out in a
tipping point phase of the transition

18. Survival of the Fittest
not the biggest companies will survive,
also not the smartest companies, but
the most adaptive companies

19. Transition Governance

20. Theoretical Principles
creating space for niches emergece
variation and selection diversity & coherence
empowering niches co-evolution
different scales interactions, feedbacks
anticipation and adaptation self-organisation

21. Transition Governance
create innovation spaces for radical innovation
bring together frontrunners in innovation spaces
develop a vision and agenda for radical innovation
start portfolio of transition experiments

22. Transition Governance Cycle
vision,
pathways,
transition
agenda
transition arena
transition experiments
evaluation,
monitoring
learning

23. Transition Arena
- long term
- front runners
- radical innovation
- problem / goal searching
Different Arena’s
Political Arena
- short / medium term
- peloton
- incremental innovation
- problem / goal oriented
Market Arena
- short term
- efficiency
- growth/return

24. challenge the market & mobilize society
long-term thinking & short-term action
Transition Governance

25. Organic Steering
vision, action, strategy
demands patience, time, trust

26. facilitating role of the state
- creating radical innovation spaces
- removing barriers
- forming coalitions around frontrunners
- stimulating financial arrangements
Transition Policy

27. challenge market, mobilize society
phase 1 searching, learning, experimenting
phase 2 selecting, scaling up
phase 3 integrating in primary policy process
frontrunners
Transition Policy

28. Applications

29. Transition Governance
practised in
European countries
Netherlands, Belgium, France, Scotland, Switzerland, Austria, Finland
Outside Europe
Japan, Australia, Canada

30. Transition Governance
application domains
energy
mobility
food
health care
city development

31. Lessons Learned
successes & failures
good results with searching, learning and experimenting
lack of results with upscaling and broader support
no results yet with full implementation
major differences cross countries

32. 6 ministriesInfluential persons
from energy sector
(Ministerie van EZ)
SENTER NOVEM
TRANSITION-PROJECTS
Platform-
secretaries
Taskforce
Energy transition
PLATFORM
SUSUTAINABLEble
MOBILITY
UKR-
support
Frontrunners
office
PLATFORM
GREEN
RESOURCES
PLATFORM
CHAIN-
EFFIICENCY
PLATFORM
SUSTAINABLE
ELECTRIC.
PLATFORM
BUILT
ENVIRONMENT
PLATFORM
NEW
GAS
23
transition
-pathways
1
long-term
vision
250
transition
experiments
PLATFORM
GREENHOUSE
SOURCE
IPE
Supporting
staff
“6 DG”
team
Interdepartementale
Programme board
Energy transition
Dutch Energy Transition
7
transition
themes

33. Success
sense of urgency, high ambition level
agenda of reform, breakthrough projects
new discours
broad movement
money, time, energy invested
unique policy experiment

34. Failure
process institutionalised and too political
overly focus on monitoring and controlling
focus on technology and not on behaviour and institutions
too much top-down and too little bottom-up from regions
political dynamics taken over by societal dynamics

35. vision & ambition
network approach
strategy & action
facilitating government
Dutch Biobased Economy Transition

36. Transition Pathways
• Biobased materials
• Bioenergy & biochemicals
• Integrated biorefining
• Plant cultivation & biomass production
• Recycling: water, nutrients, soil

37. Northern cluster
- Agro
- Paper
- Chemical
- Energy
- Eems Port
BBE Innovation
Cluster East
- Energy
- Biocoatings
- Fibres and
yams
- Paper
Biobased Delta
- Agro
- Chemical
(aromatics)
Biodelta South-
Wing
- Chemical
- Energy
- Biotech
- Greenport
- Rotterdam Port
Biobased
Connections
Amsterdam
- Energy
- Chemical
Biobased
Limburg
- Chemical
- Medical
Regional clusters

38. Facilitating Role of Goverment
giving direction
&
providing space

39. Giving Direction
giving direction
clear and ambitious goals
sound rules of the game
fine-tuning developments in coherence

40. Providing Space
innovation space
mental space, juridical space, organisational space
removing barriers
stimulating new coalitions

41. 69 juridical barriers have been identified
operational, structural, fundamental and conflicting
23 operational barriers have been resolved
23 fundamental barriers have been discussed
9 conflicting barriers can not be resolved
Barriers

42. structural barriers
residual currents considered as waste in law
fundamental barriers
no level playing field
import taxes on bio-ethanol, not on nafta
no certification
no GMO possible
conflicting barriers
risks of new chemical compounds and mixtures
green gas transport versus elektric transport
bio-products and food security
Barriers

43. http://www.agro-chemie.nl/assets/sites/3/Green-Chemistry-Campus-2.jpg

44. Green Chemistry Campus
pearl of the biobased economy
campus created by petrochemical company SABIC
SABIC opens their laboratories for entrepreneurs
results in biobased radical innovations
biopolymers,biobased building materials,bio natural colours

45. Port Company of Rotterdam 3.0
doesn’t make money with container transport
but with:
adding values to goods
upcycling of electronic waste
organising in a circle of 100 kms

46. 3D-Printer maritime industry
app-development containertransport
biorefinery biopolymeren in Haven
maker industry 3.0 Old Harbour Area
elektron. waste upcycling Old Harbour Area
Stimulate New Combinations

47. 5 entrepreneurial ecosystems for radical innovation
3D-printing for maritime industry
digital logistics
waste management & resources production
manufacturing industry
communication & knowledge
Shadow Line for Radical Innovation

48. Lessons
• the first period is relatively easy, thereafter arise
winners and losers
• natural tendency of the government to fall back
in the command-and-control mode
• space for frontrunners is of crucial importance
[financial, organizational, juridical, mental space]
• challenging but cumbersome processes that
require smart manoeuvring

49. vision & ambition
network approach
strategy & action
regional approach
facilitating government
Success Factors

50. Future Agenda
• more big case studies in European countries
• experience with upscaling and implementation
• transitions within companies & organisations
• multiple actor model [theoretical & empirical]