2. About Me
• JinYeong Bak (jy.bak@kaist.ac.kr)
• Ph.D. student at KAIST, U&I Lab
– MS degree at KAIST
– BS degree at SKKU
• Research interests
– Machine Learning
– Computational Social Science
• Research interns
– Microsoft Research Asia, 2013
– United Nations Pulse Lab Jakarta, 2016
2016-03-202
5. AlphaGo
• Computer program
– Developed by Google DeepMind
– Play the board game Go
• Algorithm: a combination of
– Artificial neural networks
– Machine learning (reinforcement learning)
– Monte Carlo tree search
2016-03-205
14. Frequently Asked Questions
AlphaGo wins Lee Sedol
• Can AlphaGo win all people?
• Can AI control human being?
• Can AI make the Terminator?
2016-03-2011
15. Frequently Asked Questions
AlphaGo wins Lee Sedol
• Can AlphaGo win all people?
• Can AI control human being?
• Can AI make the Terminator?
• Do we all die?
2016-03-2011
16. Frequently Asked Questions
AlphaGo wins Lee Sedol
• Can AlphaGo win all people?
• Can AI control human being?
• Can AI make the Terminator?
• Do we all die?
2016-03-2011
17. AlphaGo
• Computer program
– Developed by Google DeepMind
– Play the board game Go
• Algorithm: a combination of
– Artificial neural networks
– Machine learning (reinforcement learning)
– Monte Carlo tree search
2016-03-2012
21. Artificial intelligence
• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)
– Weak AI
– Specializes in one area
– Ex) AlphaGo, Siri, Spam mail filter, Translator, etc…
• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
• Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)
2016-03-2016
22. Artificial intelligence
• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)
• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
– Strong AI (Human level AI)
– Be as smart as a human across the board
– “a very general mental capability that, among other things,
involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think
abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and
learn from experience.”
• Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)
2016-03-2017
23. Artificial intelligence
• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)
• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
• Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)
– Be smarter than the best human brains in every field
2016-03-2018
24. Artificial intelligence
• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)
• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
• Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)
– Be smarter than the best human brains in every field
2016-03-2018
25. Intelligence
• The ability to learn or understand things or to deal with new
or difficult situations
2016-03-2019
26. Intelligence
• The ability to learn or understand things or to deal with new or difficult
situations
• Capacity for
– Logic
– Abstract thought
– Understanding
– Self-awareness
– Communication
– Learning
– Emotional knowledge
– Memory
– Planning
– Creativity
– Problem solving
2016-03-2019
36. Opinions on ASI Arrival
• Optimism
– AIs can solve any problems
– Humans can have eternal life
2016-03-2029
37. Opinions on ASI Arrival
• Pessimism
– AIs work hard to achieve the goal
2016-03-2030
38. Opinions on ASI Arrival
• Pessimism
– AIs work hard to achieve the goal
– AIs are amoral
• Not moral
• Not immoral
• Not involving questions of right or wrong
2016-03-2030
39. Opinions on ASI Arrival
• Pessimism
– AIs work hard to achieve the goal
– AIs are amoral
• Not moral
• Not immoral
• Not involving questions of right or wrong
2016-03-2030
40. Opinions on ASI Arrival
• Pessimism
– AIs work hard to achieve the goal
– AIs are amoral
• Not moral
• Not immoral
• Not involving questions of right or wrong
2016-03-2030
41. Opinions on ASI Arrival
• Pessimism
– AIs work hard to achieve the goal
– AIs are amoral
• Not moral
• Not immoral
• Not involving questions of right or wrong
– Can Humans control ASI?
• ASI is smarter than humans
2016-03-2030
48. My opinion
More like optimism
Reasons
– The goal is given by human
– Moral/Immoral is coming from human
– I am machine learning researcher
2016-03-2034
67. Topic modeling
2016-03-2050
korea south korean kim lee
music album song single live
olympic summer medal gold
winter
Word distribution of each topic
Korea
Music
Olympic
Topic proportion of each document
68. Topic modeling
2016-03-2050
korea south korean kim lee
music album song single live
olympic summer medal gold
winter
Word distribution of each topic
LDA
Korea
Music
Olympic
Topic proportion of each document
99. MY RESEARCH – COMPUTATIONAL
SOCIAL SCIENCE
2016-03-2060
100. Computational Social Science
• Computational approaches to the social sciences
• Computers are used to model, simulate, and analyze
social phenomena
• Fields
– Computational economics
– Computational sociology
– Computational psychology
2016-03-2061
102. Leadership
• A process of social influence in which a person can
enlist the aid and support of others in the
accomplishment of a common task [Chemers. 2014]
2016-03-2063
103. Leadership
• A process of social influence in which a person can
enlist the aid and support of others in the
accomplishment of a common task [Chemers. 2014]
• The ability to
– Influence other people
– Get them to do something significant
• Energizing people toward a goal [Mills. 2005]
2016-03-2063
105. Leadership Styles [Lewin, et al. 1939]
• Autocratic
– Get little input from group members
– Control over all decisions
2016-03-2065
106. Leadership Styles [Lewin, et al. 1939]
• Autocratic
– Get little input from group members
– Control over all decisions
• Laissez-Faire
– Give little guidance to group members
– Leave them to decision-making
2016-03-2065
107. Leadership Styles [Lewin, et al. 1939]
• Autocratic
– Get little input from group members
– Control over all decisions
• Laissez-Faire
– Give little guidance to group members
– Leave them to decision-making
• Democratic
– Encourage group members to participate
– Retain the final say in the decision-making
2016-03-2065
108. Leadership Styles
• Target people
– School children [Lewin, et al. 1939]
– Work employee [Hoel. 2010]
– USA president [Bligh, et al. 2004] & Prime minister [Kaarbo. 1997]
2016-03-2066
109. Leadership Styles
• Target people
– School children [Lewin, et al. 1939]
– Work employee [Hoel. 2010]
– USA president [Bligh, et al. 2004] & Prime minister [Kaarbo. 1997]
• Relationships [Van. 2006]
– Age
– Health
– Context
2016-03-2066
110. Leadership Styles
• Target people
– School children [Lewin, et al. 1939]
– Work employee [Hoel. 2010]
– USA president [Bligh, et al. 2004] & Prime minister [Kaarbo. 1997]
• Relationships [Van. 2006]
– Age
– Health
– Context
• How about the kings in the old times?
2016-03-2066
112. Research Questions
1. Do kings show different kinds of leadership styles?
2. What factors are related with kings’ leadership?
– Context/Topics?
– Members?
– Time?
2016-03-2067
114. Dataset
• What kinds of data are needed?
• Requirements: records of king’s official duty activities
– Discussions with government officials
– King’s decisions
– Long and large dataset
2016-03-2068
115. Dataset
• What kinds of data are needed?
• Requirements: records of king’s official duty activities
– Discussions with government officials
– King’s decisions
– Long and large dataset
• My answer: The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
2016-03-2068
116. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
• Series of books which describe about historical facts
in Joseon dynasty
• 1,893 books, 380,271 articles
• 472 years (1392 – 1863)
2016-03-2069
117. The Joseon Dynasty
• Ancient kingdom in Korean peninsula
2016-03-2070
Civilization V - Civilization and Scenario Pack: Korea
118. The Joseon Dynasty
• Ancient kingdom in Korean peninsula
2016-03-2070
Civilization V - Civilization and Scenario Pack: Korea
119. The Joseon Dynasty
• Ancient kingdom in Korean peninsula
2016-03-2070
Civilization V - Civilization and Scenario Pack: Korea
Sejong
the Great
120. The Joseon Dynasty
• Ancient kingdom in Korean peninsula
– From 1392 to 1897
– 27 kings
– Capital city: Seoul
– Religion: Neo-Confucianism
2016-03-2071
121. The Joseon Dynasty
• Monarchial system
– King governs the nation
– King decides on official issues
– King discusses it with government officials
2016-03-2072
122. The Joseon Dynasty
• Monarchial system
– King governs the nation
– King decides on official issues
– King discusses it with government officials
2016-03-2072
A screenshot of a historical drama - Yi san
123. The Joseon Dynasty
• Monarchial system
– King governs the nation
– King decides on official issues
– King discusses it with government officials
2016-03-2072
King
A screenshot of a historical drama - Yi san
124. The Joseon Dynasty
• Monarchial system
– King governs the nation
– King decides on official issues
– King discusses it with government officials
2016-03-2072
King
Government
officials
A screenshot of a historical drama - Yi san
125. The Joseon Dynasty
• Monarchial system
– King governs the nation
– King decides on official issues
– King discusses it with government officials
2016-03-2072
King
Government
officials
historiographers
A screenshot of a historical drama - Yi san
126. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
• Contents
2016-03-2073
127. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
• Contents
– Human resources
• Employment & Dismissal
• Person information
2016-03-2073
128. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
• Contents
– Human resources
• Employment & Dismissal
• Person information
– Government issues
• Military
• Tax & Population
2016-03-2073
129. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
• Contents
– Human resources
• Employment & Dismissal
• Person information
– Government issues
• Military
• Tax & Population
– Diplomatic relations
• China
• Japan
2016-03-2073
130. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
• Contents
– Human resources
• Employment & Dismissal
• Person information
– Government issues
• Military
• Tax & Population
– Diplomatic relations
• China
• Japan
– Judgements
• Punishment
• Remission
2016-03-2073
131. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
• Contents
– Human resources
• Employment & Dismissal
• Person information
– Government issues
• Military
• Tax & Population
– Diplomatic relations
• China
• Japan
– Judgements
• Punishment
• Remission
– Observations
• Astronomical phenomena
• Weather
2016-03-2073
132. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
• National Institute of Korean History (http://www.history.go.kr)
– Translated it to modern Korean
2016-03-2074
133. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
• National Institute of Korean History (http://www.history.go.kr)
– Translated it to modern Korean
– Tagged meta information
• Title
• Category (political, economic, social and cultural)
• Entity (person, location, nation)
2016-03-2074
134. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
• National Institute of Korean History (http://www.history.go.kr)
– Translated it to modern Korean
– Tagged meta information
• Title
• Category (political, economic, social and cultural)
• Entity (person, location, nation)
– Published on the web
• http://sillok.history.go.kr
2016-03-2074
141. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
2016-03-2076
Title
Time
142. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
2016-03-2076
Title
Time
Body
143. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
2016-03-2076
Title
Meta
information
Time
Body
144. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
2016-03-2077
Combining two local districts
145. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
2016-03-2077
Facts
Combining two local districts
146. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
2016-03-2077
Facts
Combining two local districts
147. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
2016-03-2077
Facts
Official A
Combining two local districts
148. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
2016-03-2077
Facts
Official A
“It’s reasonable to combine
two local districts.”
Combining two local districts
149. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
2016-03-2077
Facts
Official A
King
“It’s reasonable to combine
two local districts.”
Combining two local districts
150. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
2016-03-2077
Facts
Official A
King
“It’s reasonable to combine
two local districts.”
Combining two local districts
“How should we handle this?”
151. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
2016-03-2077
Facts
Official A
King
Official B
Official C
“It’s reasonable to combine
two local districts.”
Combining two local districts
“How should we handle this?”
152. The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty
2016-03-2077
Facts
Official A
King
Official B
Official C
The king follows
Official C’s suggestion.
“It’s reasonable to combine
two local districts.”
Combining two local districts
“How should we handle this?”
153. Methodology
• Identify relevant articles
– To avoid non-governmental affairs (e.g. observations)
– Look at the kings words and decisions
– 126K, 36% over all articles
2016-03-2078
154. Methodology
• Identify relevant articles
– To avoid non-governmental affairs (e.g. observations)
– Look at the kings words and decisions
– 126K, 36% over all articles
• Identify king’s final decisions in the article
– Build sixty candidate verbs
• Order: 명하다, 命
• Approve: 윤허하다, 允
• Disapprove: 불허하다, 不允
• Reject: 따르지 않았다, 不從
• Follow: 따르다, 從之
– Look at the verbs in king’s last sentence and title
2016-03-2078
155. Ruling styles
• Arbitrary Decision (AD)
• Discussion and Order (DO)
• Discussion and Follow (DF)
2016-03-2079
156. Ruling styles
• Arbitrary Decision (AD)
– Like autocratic style
– No discussion with officials
– Orders directly
• Discussion and Order (DO)
• Discussion and Follow (DF)
2016-03-2079
157. Ruling styles
• Arbitrary Decision (AD)
– Like autocratic style
– No discussion with officials
– Orders directly
• Discussion and Order (DO)
– Like democratic style
– Discussion with officials
– Orders, approves, or rejects at the end
• Discussion and Follow (DF)
2016-03-2079
158. Ruling styles
• Arbitrary Decision (AD)
– Like autocratic style
– No discussion with officials
– Orders directly
• Discussion and Order (DO)
– Like democratic style
– Discussion with officials
– Orders, approves, or rejects at the end
• Discussion and Follow (DF)
– Like laissez-faire style
– Discussion with officials
– Follows officials suggestion
2016-03-2079
163. Ruling styles
2016-03-2081
• Discussion and Order (DO) example
Agency A
Official B
Official C
King
King
King
“I don’t want to do that.
Don’t ask me about that again”
“Please interrogate a suspect”
165. Research Question 1
1. Do kings show different kinds of leadership styles?
2016-03-2083
166. Results – Among kings
2016-03-2084
• Each king shows different ruling style
– Multinomial test between king’s ruling style distribution ( < 0.001)
167. Results – Among kings
2016-03-2084
• Each king shows different ruling style
– Multinomial test between king’s ruling style distribution ( < 0.001)
• Tyrants (Yeonsangun, Gwanghaegun) show high value of AD
168. Research Question 2
2. What factors are related with kings’ leadership?
– Context/Topics?
– Members?
– Time?
2016-03-2085
169. Methodology
• Discover topics in each article
– LDA [Blei et al. 2003] with 300 topics
– LDA outputs a topic proportion for each article
– LDA outputs a multinomial word distribution for each topic
2016-03-2086
170. Methodology
• Discover topics in each article
– LDA [Blei et al. 2003] with 300 topics
– LDA outputs a topic proportion for each article
– LDA outputs a multinomial word distribution for each topic
• Identify who said what
– To analyze the participants in the discussion
– Look at subjects and person tags in front of the sentence
of each quote
– 20K people/agencies
2016-03-2086
171. Results - Topics
Retirement Agriculture Remission Grants
신하 곡물 죄 한 필
은퇴 마을 법 한 구획
지위 한 구획 전하 하사
사람 창고 관여 안장
유능 사람 용서 한 지역
일 쌀 찬성 한 구역
의무 저장 반란 호필
직 흉년 사람 외피
2016-03-2087
175. Investigate the effects o )
• Results
Different from overall
( )
Results - Topics
2016-03-2088
Sejong the Great
Yeonsangun
Injo
176. • Remission of sins topic
– Kings act DO than overall
– Injo tends to DF
Results - Topics
2016-03-2089
Sejong the Great
Yeonsangun
Injo
177. • Remission of sins topic
– Kings act DO than overall
– Injo tends to DF
• Granting rewards topic
– Sejong the Great acts DF
– Yeonsangun acts arbitrarily
– Injo tends to give grants to
servants than overall
Results - Topics
2016-03-2089
Sejong the Great
Yeonsangun
Injo
178. Results - Members
• Investigate the effects of the participants in a discussion
– Compute the mutual information among ruling styles
2016-03-2090
179. Results - Members
• Investigate the effects of the participants in a discussion
– Compute the mutual information among ruling styles
• Results
– Discussion and Order
• Chief secretary
• Local government officials
2016-03-2090
180. Results - Members
• Investigate the effects of the participants in a discussion
– Compute the mutual information among ruling styles
• Results
– Discussion and Order
• Chief secretary
• Local government officials
– Discussion and Follow
• Central government officials
• Crown prince
• Agency officials who remonstrate to the king
2016-03-2090
181. Results – Time
• Investigate the changes over time
– Look at the temporal difference of a king
2016-03-2091
Yeonsangun Injo
182. Results – Time
• Investigate the changes over time
– Look at the temporal difference of a king
• Results
– Yeonsangun becomes more arbitrary over time
– Injo stays consistent in his ruling style
2016-03-2091
Yeonsangun Injo
183. Conclusion
• AIs are getting strong
– The singularity is near
– Optimistic? Pessimistic?
2016-03-2092
184. Conclusion
• AIs are getting strong
– The singularity is near
– Optimistic? Pessimistic?
• I am machine learning researcher
– Making algorithms and models for specific problems
– Analyzing (text) dataset
– Helping to make ASI
2016-03-2092
185. Conclusion
• AIs are getting strong
– The singularity is near
– Optimistic? Pessimistic?
• I am machine learning researcher
– Making algorithms and models for specific problems
– Analyzing (text) dataset
– Helping to make ASI
2016-03-2092
186. Reference
• Chemers, M. (2014). An integrative theory of leadership. Psychology Press.
• Mills, D. Q. (2005). Leadership: How to lead, how to live. MindEdge Press.
• Lewin, K., Lippitt, R., & White, R. K. (1939). Patterns of aggressive behavior in
experimentally created “social climates”. The Journal of Social Psychology, 10(2),
269-299.
• Bligh, M. C., Kohles, J. C., & Meindl, J. R. (2004). Charting the language of
leadership: a methodological investigation of President Bush and the crisis of 9/11.
Journal of Applied Psychology, 89(3), 562.
• Hoel, H., Glasø, L., Hetland, J., Cooper, C. L., & Einarsen, S. (2010). Leadership
styles as predictors of self-reported and observed workplace bullying. British
Journal of Management, 21(2), 453-468.
• Kaarbo, J. (1997). Prime minister leadership styles in foreign policy decision-
making: A framework for research. Political Psychology, 553-581.
• Blei, D. M., Ng, A. Y., & Jordan, M. I. (2003). Latent dirichlet allocation. the Journal
of machine Learning research, 3, 993-1022.
• Van Vugt, M. (2006). Evolutionary origins of leadership and followership.
Personality and Social Psychology Review, 10(4), 354-371.
2016-03-2093