1. Adapt
or
Perish:
Preparing
Trustpower
for
the
impacts
of
climate
change.
October 2014

2. 2
Contents
Introduction 3
Climate Change 3
Trustpower’s role in mitigation and adaptation 4
Climate Change and Renewable Energy 5
Hydroelectric Generation
Notable Effects of Climate Change on Hydroelectricity
Wind Generation
Notable Effects of Climate Change on Wind Energy
Impacts for New Zealand 8
Snapshot of effects for Hydro and Wind Energy
Impacts for Australia 11
Snapshot of effects for Hydro and Wind Energy
Beyond Australasia 13
Adaptation Principles 16
Recommended Adaptation Solutions 18
Summary of Adaptation Options specific to Trustpower
Conclusion 19
Works Cited 20

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Introduction
A common misconception exists when discussing the impacts of climate change. While our Pacific
neighbours, such as the Marshall Islands and Kiribati, are regularly at the top of the list for
countries at risk of global warming, New Zealand is seen as a safe haven, exempt from the turmoil
that is already besetting these small island states.
It is no wonder that such an assumption exists. New Zealand is blessed geographically, high
above sea level in an area not subject to extreme heat or cold. While coastal erosion and sea-level
rise is expected to occur in New Zealand, such impacts are not expected to be life threatening.
New Zealand is incredibly fortunate to have these resources at hand, but it is wrong to assume that
these assets will be as reliable in the future. Trustpower relies heavily on the environment to
provide renewable energy to our clients. Our specialisation in hydroelectric, wind and irrigation
production will be impeded by climate change, and without any proper measures put in place to
minimise these risks, could devastate our operations. These threats have potential to impact not
only our schemes in New Zealand, but even more so in Australia, where temperatures are
breaking records and extreme droughts and flooding are now regular occurrences.
If Trustpower is to best meet the demands of this increasingly difficult environment, we simply
cannot put off adaptation measures until these circumstances come to light. While this strategy is
tempting, this is not a long-term fix and will ultimately lead to greater financial burden. This
response is also unwise considering the losses we are currently facing from a weakening energy
market, with climate change set to further affect how energy is produced and consumed.
Shortening of seasons, warmer winters with rapid onsets of cold snaps, and hotter summers will
completely transform generation demands.
By clearly illustrating predicted effects and outlining practical adaptation options, this report hopes
to take climate change concerns away from the fringes of political and scientific debate and places
it at the very centre of Trustpower’s business strategy.
Climate Change
Climate change is not just the world’s biggest threat; it is now an unavoidable reality.
Climate scientists have indicated a connection to warming from emitting greenhouse gases
(GHG’s) into the atmosphere for over a century, but it has only been within the last decade that the
international community has started to notice, and fear, our rapidly changing climate.
The industrial era has been an astounding period in human evolution, leading to mass
development and population growth. But this has come at a cost to our climate. Concentrations of
carbon have increased by over 30%, and today we are breathing in air of up to 400 million parts
per million of carbon, a level not previously recorded in human history. This rate of carbonisation in
conjunction with rapidly decreasing forests to replenish oxygen has led to mass warming. The
Arctic has increased in temperature at a rate of 5 degrees in the last ten years, with an overall
warming of 0.7 degrees in the last century globally. Anyone under the age of 25 has never
experienced a colder winter then their previous ancestors. It is this sheer rapidity of change that is
the most concerning when looking to the future.

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We are already observing the effects of climate change. Storms are growing in magnitude and
frequency, sudden flooding, droughts and heat waves are occurring more often and longer, and
sea level rise is now a major problem for many coastal cities and island states.
These increases are only the literal tip of the iceberg for what we are to face. Despite repeated
calls to mitigate emissions, very little has actually been done to reduce impacts and limit fuel use.
In fact, in 2013 we emitted twice as many emissions as the previous year. If this trend continues, it
is very unlikely that our climate will be maintained at a preferred maximum two degrees increase.
Current projections point to a four degrees world, with the tipping point likely to lead us to a six to
eight degree increase. Such a climate would be inhospitable for most of the world’s population.
The most concerning aspect of these projections is that carbon released today does not
immediately make changes in the atmosphere. Any carbon released into the atmosphere takes
approximately seven years to show effects, meaning that what we are facing now has been caused
predominately by emissions released a decade ago. With this in mind, the next ten years and
beyond are set to be highly tumultuous.
Trustpower’s role in mitigation and adaptation
Only 15% of the world’s energy supply is provided through renewable resources. Such a statistic is
appalling considering the increasing need to consider new forms of generation that best meet the
demands of substantial environmental challenges.
Transitions in electricity production towards greener forms of energy, however, are growing
exponentially, and this is unlikely to waiver considering the growing awareness of climate change.
Major investors previously tied up with oil and gas industries are reinvesting into renewables.
Globally, carbon taxes, emissions trading schemes and fossil fuel divestment campaigns are being
implemented and strengthened, cementing the role renewable energy companies play in
transitioning into a low-carbon world.

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Trustpower bodes well in this regard, producing clean energy for both New Zealand and Australia,
the expansion into other markets worldwide also imminent. But we must acknowledge the damage
that has already been done. Trustpower’s approach to mitigation over adaptation is a common, but
dangerous, approach. All countries will be detrimentally affected by climate change. The impacts
we area already observing are only set to multiply exponentially in the coming years.
It is therefore imperative that Trustpower seeks to best understand and prepare for the effects
climate change will have on our hydroelectric and wind energy schemes. The risks and benefits of
other renewable energy options and regions for the future of the company should also be
considered to ensure the generation profile of Trustpower is environmentally-sound, long lasting,
and ultimately, profitable.
By making adaptation a priority, Trustpower can provide certainties of readily available clean
energy that surpasses the need for fossil fuels and provides greater resilience in an increasingly
volatile world.
Climate Change and Renewable Energy
Hydroelectric Generation
Water resources are highly vulnerable to climate change. Impacts include mass redistribution of
precipitation, where areas previously abundant in rainwater are now facing regular shortages.
Dependence on glacial melt to sustain flows in rivers and streams is also being compromised,
significantly lowering water levels. Higher temperatures have also lead to greater evaporation rates
in reservoirs and natural lakes. Flooding is also occurring in some regions, inundating certain
regions unprepared for excess rainfall, devastating infrastructure. Hydroelectricity generation is
especially vulnerable to both these effects, entirely dependent on sustained water flows dictated by
seasonal changes. What has guided hydrological engineering must be reconsidered in light of
climate change, as indicated by the diagram below:
(Blackshear et al., 2011).

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As indicated, the complexities of changing temperature and precipitation are vast. Furthermore, as
shown in the table below, each individual aspect of hydrology will increase, decrease or have no
change, providing no single solution to mitigating these effects:
(Blackshear et al., 2011).
Notable Effects of Climate Change on Hydroelectricity
Evaporation
Increased evaporation will reduce electricity generation for all types of dams, but these effects will
be most drastic for those with reservoirs. Reservoirs with higher surface area to volume ratios are
more vulnerable to losing capacity from evaporation, which reduces a facility's power production
capacity. Retrofitting reservoirs to make them deeper is an option, but is very expensive. Smaller
reservoirs are more at risk to losing greater proportions of their volume.
Discharges
Fluctuations in discharges will be affected depending on the type of scheme, with run-of-river dams
far more susceptible to water shortages as they are directly reliant on the river’s flow.
Temporal variability
Climate change will cause increased temporal variability of precipitation events. These impacts will
results in more severe and frequent floods and droughts. By delivering water supply at varied and
unpredictable times, temporal variability negatively impacts hydroelectric production.
Flooding

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Flooding has the potential to increase river flows and hydropower generation as long as the excess
river flow level remains within the dam's reservoir capacity. In extreme cases, floods can also
prove destructive to dams. Large sediment and debris loads carried by floodwaters can block dam
spillways and powerful masses of water can damage structural components. Impact will depend on
the size of the dam's reservoir.
Droughts
Droughts are the most obvious threat to hydroelectric generation, as they substantially reduce the
amount of water available to produce electricity. Droughts in the past have been responsible for
reducing up to half of hydro's electrical production capacity in some areas.
Seasonal Offset
Climate change will create differences between the generation in fall-winter and spring-summer to
increase. Power production will increase relative to current rates during part of the year, but this
will be counteracted by sharp decreases in other months. The magnitude of climate change
induced precipitation shifts will vary greatly by season. Reductions can be within one season, with
wet seasons becoming drier and dry seasons becoming wetter.
Glacial melt
Glaciated regions of the world act as natural water towers, providing water to downstream areas.
As glaciers retreat, runoff will initially increase in the short-term due to the large volumes of stored
ice melting away. Eventually these stores of ice may disappear entirely, resulting in long-term
decreases in annual runoff and stream discharge.
Wind Generation
Wind energy is becoming a highly favourable source of renewable energy. Wind, unlike water,
appears far more reliable, and is also less restricted by land and water regulations, making an
abundant resource available year-round.
While Trustpower should continue to build and enhance wind farms, it is important to recognise
that some risks still exist for wind energy, susceptible like every other natural resource to a
changing environment (Pryor and Barthelmie, 2010).
Notable Effects of Climate Change on Wind Energy
Air Density
Air density affects the energy density in the wind and hence the power output of wind turbines, and
is inversely proportional to air temperature, thus increasing air temperature will lead to slight
declines in air density and power production. Increases between incident wind speed and power
production from wind turbines affect the usual patterns of wind turbine power curve, causing
changes in extreme loads during excessively high storms. Incidences sustained on a single
component for longer than ten minutes can lead to critical loads and damage the mechanics of the
turbine.
Increases in air pressure of 5% leads to a decrease in air density of 1-2%. When you consider the
fact that wind turbines in their current form cannot operate at speeds above about 30 m/s, the
impact of air density and subsequent intensity of wind currents seems highly dangerous to long-
term wind generation.

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Changing global wind frequencies
The changing geographic distributions of the inter- and intra- annual variability of wind resources,
like rainfall, will be far less predictable. Predictions for wind are incredibly hard to quantify,
requiring almost entirely new methods of research to establish how current and future climate
change will affect wind generation. It is still uncertain how exactly the inter-annual and inter-
decadal variability of wind speed and energy density will increase or decrease under climate
change scenarios (Pryor and Barthelmie, 2010).
What has so far been established is that there will be changes worldwide that will reshape how
wind currents flow, ultimately leading to new areas of development previously unviable, and in
contrast, loss of generation in regions where farms have been established.
As an example, Brazil has historically been phenomenal for wind capacity, but due to the overall
global decline of wind on eastern coasts, is set to substantially decline in energy output by 2100.
The contiguous USA has also shown a steady decline from 1979-2004. In contrast, areas near the
Polar Regions like northern Europe are expected to have increases in extreme wind speeds with
warmer arctic temperatures leading to more declines in sea ice and icing frequencies. The
southern hemisphere will be also affected by warming in the Antarctic, but this will be far more
temperamental because of sea currents and the hotter temperatures in the Pacific and the Equator
consistently changing wind patterns.
Some coastal regions previously abundant in wind will find decreases while some inland ranges
will have sudden onsets of strong winds followed by periods of low speeds. Other areas,
particularly those experiencing westerlies, will find wind becoming excessive in magnitude, causing
a whole new set of problems to best utilise wind for energy.
Wind turbine design and resources
The main cause of concern is not necessarily lack of wind flows, but the resources needed for wind
generation and current designs of turbines and connected infrastructure that may be insufficient to
meet with intense wind changes.
For instance, an increased frequency of extreme wind, as outlined in the previous section, would
increase the risk of wind damage to infrastructure, including lines and pylons (Pryor of Barthelmie,
2010). Excessive wind turbine loading through turbulence intensity increases likelihoods of wind
shear across the turbine blades. Corrosion from airborne particles and salinity of turbines located
in or near coasts subjected to sea level rise is also a serious impediment to wind generation.
Higher temperatures alongside intense wind pressure may also over extend the blades and create
fire hazards, further compromised by environmental issues such as bushfires and heat waves.
Furthermore, the very construction materials and lubricants available currently for turbines may
prove to be unsuitable under these conditions.
Other meteorological drivers of turbine loading may also be influenced by climate change but are
likely to be secondary in comparison to changes in resource magnitude, extremes and icing issues.
Impacts for New Zealand
Snapshot of effects for Hydro and Wind Generation

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• Extreme rainfall, storminess, tropical cyclones, rainfall instead of snowfall, sea-level rise.
• Increased temperatures of at least 2 degrees.
• Sediment transportation and subsequent changing riverbed levels.
• Natural changes in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a cycle of 15 to 30 years
between warm and cool waters in the north and south Pacific- similar to El Nino (Southern
Oscillation) but with more variation in the extra-tropics.
• Over the next 50 years the changes in climate resulting from increases in greenhouse
gases are in the same order of magnitude as IPO variability, therefore both IPO and
greenhouse gas effects must be considered.
• IPO associated with long-term fluctuations in NZ’s climate and sea level.
• The decadal fluctuation in wind and rainfall over NZ also leads to variations in river flow and
flooding. Increases in flood size and low-flow magnitude occurred in the South Island for
most rivers with headwaters draining from the main divide of the Southern Alps and
Southland- Rakaia River, for example.
• The period of IPO from 1970 has ended, with it unlikely to return with such strong negative
values as previously. It is likely that there will be more La Nina activity, with fewer El Nino
events, over the next two decades- lead to rainfall reductions in the SW and increases in
the NE.
• Extreme periods of rainfall, especially in the West Coast of the country. Sudden heavy
downpours expected in most places.
• Increased westerlies.
• Reduced frost frequency and increased risk of heat waves over the whole country.
• Reduced soil moisture and increased risk of drought; increased risk of forest fires in many
eastern and northern regions
• Impacts on current and future irrigation works, water limits more readily imposed during dry
seasons.
New Zealand is lauded as one of the world leaders in renewable energy generation. Rich in natural
resources, 75% of the country’s energy needs are met by hydro, wind and solar electricity.
While this has been beneficial in minimising carbon emissions, it makes New Zealand’s energy
companies particularly vulnerable to climate influences (Ministry of the Environment, 2010).
The effects of climate change in New Zealand are shaped by our geographical location in the
middle latitudes in the southern hemisphere affected by both the Pacific and the Antarctic. There
are some benefits to being in the centre of the Pacific, with the global southern oceans are more
resilient to warming climates, meaning that while global temperatures are steadfastly heading to
three degree increases, New Zealand should experience a lesser 2.1 degree change. However,
our placement in this zone also brings unique challenges that could exacerbate warming effects.
New Zealand is subject to both Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the El Niño/Niña
Southern Oscillation (ENSO), bringing periods of warmer and colder air and water currents to our
shores. According to Renwick et al. (2010), positive IPO and ENSO will lead to increases of high
flows in major South Island waterways, and reduce risk of dry years. However, the conversant is
also true with negative IPO and La Niña events decreasing high flows and increasing risks of dry
years.
This will be further compounded by the global climate change effects on New Zealand that will see
increases in rainfall in the western part of the country. Predictions by Pall et al. (2007) indicate that
extreme rainfall events with a return period of greater than 30 years will have on average about 8%

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more rain for every 1 degree rise in air temperature, leaving New Zealand with at least 16% extra
precipitation. With these increases in the West, however, also come substantial decreases in
rainfall throughout the north and east of the country. These changes will be more pronounced in
winter and spring, with summer showing a reversal of this trends that will some increased rainfalls
in the east (Mullan et al. 2008).
Higher temperatures will further implicate these issues, with reducing snow levels in New
Zealand’s mountain ranges. Research has found that there has already been a one third reduction
in snowpack on the Southern Alps. New Zealand is thankfully less reliant directly on snow and
glacial melt for its water needs than other regions, but temperature increases will have some
impacts on water availability for certain areas and related schemes. For example, glacial melt
currently contributes approximately 6-10% of hydro lake inflows to the Waitaki catchment annually.
Initially, Trustpower may find that some of our sites in fact benefit from snow melting at higher rates
for a longer period, filling hydro lakes such as Coleridge and raising flows in the Rangitaiki River,
but this is a very short-term gain that will then lead on to sudden losses. If warming continues at its
current rate, glaciers and snow once imperative to hydrological cycles could disappear altogether.
The tendency of climate change towards westerly wind and increased rainfall in western region
would lead to lesser water levels on the eastern side of the country (Renwick et al., 2013). In the
Bay of Plenty alone, our Kaimai, Ruahihi, Lower Mangapapa, Lloyd Mandeno, Matahina, Wheao
and Flaxy and Hinemaiaia hydro schemes are expected to receive significantly less rainfall and is
at higher risk of drought. In fact, climate change effects can already be attributed in part to the
water shortages we have experienced at Matahina, and these instances are likely to become
common throughout our schemes unless adjustments are made.
In contrast to these potentially devastating losses, there are also some extensive gains in some
parts that could lead to new challenges when meeting with consenting, generation and
consumption requirements. With the West Coast of the South Island and schemes in Taranaki set
to be exposed to both rain and wind increases, a lack of preparation for these instances could lead
to breaching consents on reservoir levels, spillways and flood controls for the likes of Cobb, Arnold,
Kumara/Dillmans/Duffers, Kaniere/McKays and Wahapo stations.
With the West Coast receiving a higher level of rainfall, it would be ideal to prioritise improvements
to spillways, increase storage capacity and establish the station in these schemes as safety nets
for South Island generation. The difficulty with this at present is the localised nature of our
generation, meeting electricity demands for the region specifically. In order to overcome these
restrictions, we may need to consider storage and distribution measures that will allow for
generation to meet increased demand in other parts of the South Island. Beyond transmission
infrastructure, Trustpower must also consider how each scheme may need to be modified. The
small-medium sizes of our reservoirs at a majority of our schemes are highly vulnerable to climate
change effects, unable to take full advantage of extra rainfall that would both mitigate flood effects
as well as allow for better storage facilities during drier summer periods.
It could also be beneficial to consider adding wind turbines to some of our schemes on the West
Coast to ensure that extra wind can be accessed and perhaps supplement what has been lost at
other schemes. This could also allow for water flows to be maintained during other parts of the
year, requiring less emphasis on storage. Other schemes proposed, such as the Kaiwera Downs in
the Far South, may prove less viable because of less wind in that region.

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Indeed, relying solely on wind energy as a way to combat climate change effect on generation is
misguided. New Zealand is a country prone to high wind speeds, and has wisely sought to utilise
this resource as the second biggest generator of electricity. Research is ongoing in the area, but
work to date suggests that up to a 10% increase in wind speeds above the current 99th
percentile
is possible by the end of century. These changes in the westerly wind circulation over New
Zealand will likely mean an increase in windiness and wind generation capacity in the least wind
season (winter), and in the windiest season (spring). Summer may see only a minor increase, or
little change, in wind generation. Increases in windiness could result in wind farms currently under
construction producing significantly more than their forecast generation. But as noted previously,
this abundance will only be for some areas, and may prove to be almost cumbersome because of
the issue of extreme velocity that cannot be met by current wind turbine technology.
New Zealand’s seasons have dramatically shifted in the last decade alone. Long, wet winters have
been become increasingly shorter and warmer, with sudden bouts of extreme cold and storms.
Summers are becoming drier, leading to historic droughts in Northland and in the Far South. These
patterns are set to continue, not only affecting generation but also changing consumption, a trend
to be experienced globally. According to the New Zealand Climate Change Centre (2011),
generation capacity is likely to be higher in winter and spring, in contrast to consumption demands
being higher in summer and autumn. Wintertime demand for heating is likely to decrease, and
summertime demand for air conditioning is likely to increase. Demand growth, despite flattening off
in the past couple of years, is expected to continue in New Zealand, at least over the next 20
years, but at a lower rate, estimated at around 1.5% per annum (MED 2009a, Electricity
Commission 2008).
It is therefore imperative that Trustpower takes the effects of climate change seriously in New
Zealand, allowing the company to extend further into Australia and beyond.
Impacts for Australia
Snapshot of effects
• One of the developed nations most vulnerable to climate change.
• Current trajectory of global 4ºC warming will result in at least 5º C over continental Australia
(prediction of up to 7 ºC by 2070). Inland areas likely to warm faster than the global
average, while coastal areas and the tropics will warm at around the global average.
• The average number of days over 35°C may rise 10-100% by 2030 while the average
number of days below 0°C may fall 20-80%.
• Substantial loss of spring and autumn, extreme rainfall in winter and long, dry summers.
• Intense storms with higher wind speeds and increased lightning.
• Exponential evaporation rates far greater than New Zealand. Some notable rivers like the
Murray-Darling already suffering extreme water losses.
• Unusual rainfall patterns, with extreme wet years followed by several years of prolonged
dryness.
• Substantial water loss in the central and western regions of the continent.
• Decreases in rainfall also expected in the southwest and southeast.
• Steady decline of precipitation already observed since the mid-20th
century in Western
Australia and alongside Australia’s east coast set to rise.
• Rapid flooding in some areas, i.e. Queensland and in the northwest.
• Excessive demand, particularly during increasingly occurring heat waves.
• Decreased capacity, decreased reliability, decreased safety and decreased quality of

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supply.
• Additional factors such as bushfires, heat waves, consumption changes and policy
regulations.
Comparing the future effects of climate change, New Zealand fares far better than Australia. With a
larger, more diverse landscape located closer to the equator, Australia is already experiencing
dramatic events that will become incredibly erratic. A country subject to intense temperatures,
Australia is likely to suffer from record-breaking warming, with temperatures exceeding 45 degrees
Celsius in some parts. Conditions within the Pacific of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and El Nino
that New Zealand also experiences will combine with climate change effects, creating the potential
for unprecedented disasters.
Because of its size and location geographically, different states will have to adapt in versatile ways.
For instance, major urban centres like Sydney and Melbourne will have feasible temperature
increases that should have relatively little effect on average demand (1.5% increase for a 7 degree
rise), whereas cities already more subject to greater weather extremes like Brisbane and Adelaide
will see substantial demand that they do not yet have the capacity for (10 to 28 percent for a 7
degree rise) (CSIRO 2006). Brisbane is well-suited for hydro production, with increased rainfall
expected. In contrast, Adelaide will have extensive lack of rainfall.
Hot days will be the major issue to contend with, particularly because of the effects of evaporation.
Major reservoirs will need to be maintained at far greater levels during rainy periods to ensure that
there are sufficient levels to contend during hot weather and related intensified energy demand.
Australia will need a 3.4 percent increase per annum on average to supply demand (Howden and
Crimp, 2001). This is overwhelmingly due to increases in base load from economic growth and
additional demand from the greater use of air conditioners. In a country much more reliant on non-
renewable forms of energy than New Zealand, increasing pressure to limit carbon emissions
alongside meeting energy needs.
Wind generation helps to take on some of this demand, but it also important to recognise how this
resource will also be affected by climate change in Australia. Increases in wind speeds may prove
to be profitable for those with schemes in coastal areas. CSIRO (2006) predicts increases from 2
to 5% in 2030, except for the band around latitude 30°S in winter and 40°S, where there are likely
to be decreases of -7.5% to 2%. Most notably, substantial loss in wind speeds will occur in a
distinct seasonal pattern will lead to along a latitudinal band that moves from Tasmania in summer,
onto Victoria in autumn, followed by New South Wales and South Australia in winter, with the wind
speeds dissipating in spring.

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Beyond Australasia
Trustpower’s generation profile has so far been confined to New Zealand and Australia, but with
the success of the company set to continue to grow, the company has begun to seriously consider
the rest of the world’s energy needs. Now is an incredible time to do so, with the rapid rise in
climate change awareness at every level causing a booming industry in renewable energy
development throughout the world, most notably in China and throughout Europe.
While climate change brings opportunity for the electricity industry, the transition towards a globe
sustained by renewable energy will be difficult one, despite its urgency.
The volatile political and economic environment makes expanding beyond Australasia hard to
navigate. Generating electricity from natural resources in an increasingly unfriendly environment
will bring altogether new challenges.
Nevertheless, the need is there for replace non-renewables with sustainable forms of energy. In
order to meet this demand while also ensuring success for the company, Trustpower must go
beyond conventional economic, political and cultural factors when determining new ventures,
making long-term environmental considerations the top priority. Without reliable resources, there
can be no generation. Climate change adaptation planning is therefore essential to Trustpower’s
global outreach.
Americas
The United States of America is often described as the land of opportunity, and this is certainly true
for renewable energy. The growth of renewably energy is essential for the world’s second biggest
carbon emitter. With only 6.2% generation coming from renewable energy (75% in the Pacific
Northwest), the more efficient use of these dams for electricity is a valid endeavour. As the
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has indicated, 80% of the nation’s power could be
generated by clean energy sources by 2050 (a capacity potential of 212,224 gigawatts). A majority
of the nation’s rivers have been dammed but are not fitted with hydroelectric generators. This
provides ample opportunity for Trustpower to build on this infrastructure, either as full owner of co-
partner.

14. 14
While these investments may be viable from an economic perspective, it is important to understand
the very serious ramifications climate change will have on the United States.
For example, the Western State of America currently produces 63% percent of the country’s
hydroelectricity, a trend that is continuing to grow. It is the central hub for new hydropower
development, with more than $30b in planned projects and an added 4GW of new capacity gained
last year (ACORE, 2014). A major issue in further expanding this generation is the changing
precipitation patterns and intensifying temperatures leading evaporation and lower flows creating
huge water scarcities. In 2014, California suffered one of its worst droughts in history. Temperature
increases and subsequent greater rates of evaporation are further predicted for the region.
Furthermore, the effects of lesser rainfall produce a much larger percentage change in runoff
essential hydro generation. Studies of the Colorado River, for instance, suggest that an increase in
temperature of 2 °C and a 10% decline in precipitation could reduce the runoff by as much as
40 %, which in turn would have implications for hydropower generation (ACORE, 2014).
Water shortages leading to record-breaking droughts will be the number one issue facing America.
In fact, out of all the states, only areas near the tropical Caribbean such as Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama and Florida are expected to see increases, those thee areas are also subject to
substantial flooding further encumbered by sea level rise. This means a substantial loss in the
nation’s hydro generation. Blackshear et al (2011) places a figure of a 30 percent reduction in
capacity. The below maps shows the most recent drought predictions, with California, the South
and the Mid-West expected to be the most impacted.
By being aware of these future changes, Trustpower can choose regions that will be boosted by
increasing rainfall and not so significant temperature rises. The state that represents great potential
is Alaska, experiencing greater rates of precipitation. Considering its current dependence on oil
and gas, this state has huge room for renewable energy growth. Connecting transmissions from
assets in the western and central parts of Canada and America could also prove favourable,
although practically challenging.
Another state to consider is Hawaii, one that is surprisingly highly dependent on non-renewable
energy for electricity (70%). This is despite its geography lending to substantial water resources
and large areas of coastline available for wind energy. As the above map indicates, parts of the
islands will be affected by drought, but most areas should remain less affected. Wind generation
also serves to benefit from increasing currents in the Pacific. The main issue for any new

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developments is the lack of transmission infrastructure connecting areas of generation to
residential areas. Transmissions for renewable energy are an issue throughout the United States.
With Trustpower’s experience providing transmissions throughout New Zealand’s vast landscapes,
there is huge potential to invest in, or at the very least provide consultation for, improving
connections to the grid. The States also present a highly fertile ground for solar and biomass
energy, although this will also require some engineering innovations to allow for increased
temperatures and the prevention of forest degradation. Trustpower has not yet participated in
these forms of energy generation, and needs to start scoping the region now if it is develop in the
right regions with the right technology.
The rest of the Americas show a variety of winner and losers of climate change. Canada, like
Alaska, sits within a region well-suited to hydro generation that is only set to increase with
increased rainfall that will impact northern regions like Europe. For example, with northern glacial
warming occurring at a rapid rate, countries such as those in Scandinavia and Russia will see a
potential increase in water levels of up to 30%, in contrast to the rest of the world that is expected
to have shortages of up to 50%. Like these regions, however, Canada is a less interesting
investment because of the competition already present and set to rapidly increase in the coming
years.
Central and South America also has substantial capacity and development in hydrogenation, but it
is set to suffer greater setbacks under climate change. Brazil is the largest producer of hydro, but
research suggest that by the end of the 21st
century, total production will be reduced by up to 7%
annually due to increasing temperatures, lower water flows and variations in precipitation (Lucena
et al., 2009). Brazil will also lose generation due to its location on the east of the continent, which
as mentioned in the section of hydroelectricity effects, will lead to substantial wind reductions. Even
greater reductions are expected because of the added effect of deforestation in the Amazon and
loss of glacial melt in the Andes burdening water sources, impeding renewable generation in
countries like Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile. Model results indicate that increased
frequency of low-flow years throughout South America will result in a decrease of 33–53 % in firm
hydropower capacity by 2070–2099.
Asia
Like South America, many Asian countries are dependent on the regularity of mountains range,
here the Himalayas, to provide glacial melt which maintains regular water flows in their rivers and
streams. Temperature increases have already placed stress in this system, as well as creating
issues with infrastructure, the loss of permafrost leading to significant erosion and landslips that
could make develop of further hydro generation in the region highly problematic. Furthermore,
South East Asia is, like New Zealand, situated within the ENSO, losing wind capacity on the
eastern coasts. Because they are closer to the equator they experience higher temperatures and
longer rainy seasons. While this creates exciting opportunities to develop there, there remains
technological concerns over maintaining flows without flooding that are then further threatened by
increasing volatile storms. Typhoon Haiyan that thrashed the Philippines and destroyed several
cities is only the start of a trend that will see such once-in-a lifetime events becoming annual
occurrences. One potential area to consider investment in is China’s booming hydroelectricity
industry. China is taking its role in climate change very seriously and is spearheading the world’s
biggest developments in renewable energy. Wind and solar have been the frontrunners, but hydro
is also a major player. The country is not only open to new generation but is also predicted to have
greater increases in rainfall in the north and centre, providing exciting avenues to consider.

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Africa
A majority of the African continent is unlikely to see such increases that they so desperately need.
Water shortages will be exacerbated in many countries, and temperature increases are set to
becoming stifling. Solar and biomass options should be considered to best make sure of readily
available sun hours and agricultural waste, as well as wind on the Western coasts in countries like
Morocco. Trustpower should also seriously look into the viability of hydro in the mid-central and
eastern countries such as Kenya, Tanzania, Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic
of the Congo, where rainfall is set to increase.
It is evident that despite the effects of global climate change, there are opportunities for growth that
Trustpower should consider for their long-term business strategy. What is glaringly apparent,
however, is that climate change adaptation must play a critical role in the decision-making of where
to invest. Failing to do so threatens the success of new or updated schemes that could prove
disadvantageous to the company’s growth.
Adaptation Principles
• Clear in implementation and monitoring
• Flexible
• Bottom-up versus top-down
• Cost-effective
• Conducive to growth
As evidenced, climate change is a complicated issue, and therefore requires adaptation that is all-
encompassing and systematic in its implementation and effectiveness (Howard and Crimp 2001).
The philosophy toted by most adaptation planners is to keep it broad, and keep the process
simple.
In order to achieve this, several strategies should be considered, that refined to present a clear
approach to focuses on practicable results:
(CSIRO, 2006)

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Foster et al. (2013) provides a list of adaptation options that give mention to hydropower
specifically, but can be extended for all renewable energy generation:
• A Proactive approach aims to reduce exposure to risks by building adaptive capacity, first
through improving information on climate change on hydropower making and incorporating
climate risks into hydropower management and operational decisions. The information
presented in this document to the Generation Team and senior leadership of Trustpower is
a proactive step in raising the awareness of the effects that should led to further
discussions at the executive level and with shareholders.
• A reactionary approach response for extreme weather-related service interruptions by
reinforcing existing energy infrastructure, such as raising a dam wall to enable water
storages. The potential for this response is entirely dependent on each scheme affected,
including relevant policies and consents that will determine how far assets can be adapted.
A more appropriate response in some circumstances may in fact be operating a scheme
that can accommodate to changes in climate, building reservoirs or even stopping some
schemes and building at new sites. This may not be economically or even ecologically
favourable, and may not be feasible because of various factors, but is nevertheless an
important aspect of adaptation planning allowing for a proper understanding of how
generation can be maintained in the long-term.
• A short-term response to climate variability should be viewed as tactical or operational
adjustments, such as allowing spill over during a higher than normal runoff. Long-term
responses, in contrast, are strategic adaptation that would consider options such as the
regional integration of transmission pipelines.
• Localised adaptation measures focus on specific hydropower infrastructure, whereas
systemic measures would consider the flexibility and diversity of the energy sector as
whole. Erosion prevention in a catchment would be viewed as a local response. A systemic
approach would entail the consideration of a variety of different energy sources cross a
range of climatic and geographical regions.
By engaging in various approaches, Trustpower can provide long-term strategies that meet the
needs of economic growth, environmental protection and regulations. Such participation in a range
of possible actions also provides flexibility and even new opportunities possibly not yet considered
by Trustpower. For instance, a reconsenting process could provide an avenue to implement new
conditions that would best meet with future changes, preventing breaches could lead to legal
hearings and damage the company’s reputation and finances.
This is but one example of how adaptation is highly cost-effective. A misconception stopping many
companies from starting adaptation changes is that it is expensive (Ministry of the Environment,
2008). In fact, if implemented in a comprehensive manner, adaptation should save money.
Trustpower relies on ensuring that electricity is able to grow sustainably with demand. The
alternative is to rely further on non-renewables that are more expensive to run as well as tarnishing
the company’s branding as a Carbon Neutral generator. Trustpower’s single diesel peaking plant in
Bream Bay, for example, would not be able to handle the demands of the company’s New
Zealand-based energy generation, requiring either new generators or a reduction in capacity.
Implementing adaptation now versus later also allows changes to be incremental, further adding
cost benefits. Adaptation works best with changes of lesser magnitude at the lower end of the
potential range. Where there is sufficient adaptive capacity, the ability of a system to cope with
increasingly larger changes over time is sustained. Longer delays in starting to adapt will create
conditions will prove to be far less favourable to modifications as temperatures rise and weather

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becomes even more unpredictable. There will come a point when incremental adaptations will no
longer be sufficient, requiring transformational change, as indicated in the table below:
(Foster et al., 2013).
The greatest benefit from Trustpower’s perspective is the freedom of being a private company. By
being aware of both trends and extreme vulnerabilities and adequately preparing for both, adaption
provides a bottom-up method to fill in the gaps of a top-down approach that have thus far failed to
achieve real mitigation or adaptation results. Now onto our 21st
year of climate change
negotiations, the international response has been frustratingly slow, with each country still largely
able to mandate how their electricity is sourced, no matter the consequences on the climate. A
major disagreement between Annex I and Annex II countries (developed and developing) has left a
chasm not yet able to be overcome, with Annex I countries calling for global efforts to reduce
emissions, while developing countries argue that have a right to growth, especially when
developed countries are the greatest emitters.
Adaptation continues to be represented as a development tool for poorer nations, but this is still a
form of a top-down approach. Adaptation is relevant to all as a locally-driven, autonomous form of
management planning. Private companies like Trustpower will suffer if relying on public action only.
For example, universal limits could be applied without consideration of the complexities of climate
change effects, as has already occurred with New Zealand’s Freshwater policy reform. By
indicating a proactive approach to climate change, Trustpower will be viewed favourable by both
public groups and its consumers while also providing the company long-term security (Foster et al.,
2013).
Recommended Adaptation Solutions
The list below is just the beginning of Trustpower’s adaptation strategy. These and many more
solutions can be established to prevent highly detrimental effects of climate change. By being
continuously open to new innovations, including better monitoring technology and engineering
modifications to reduce evaporation or regulate glacial melt, as well as making climate a core
priority throughout the company’s health and safety protocols, Trustpower will be able to develop
an incredibly rich and diverse plan that will be a frontrunner in New Zealand’s electricity market.
Summary of Adaptation Options specific to Trustpower
Increased monitoring
More precise projections.
Mapping out effects for each scheme and determining effects for each region.
Consultation from climate science institutions and sustainable business firms.

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Collaboration with other renewable energy providers to implement climate strategies.
Policy and consent reform
Greater consultation with district and regional councils.
Submissions to government on national adaptation strategies.
Resource Management Act considerations.
Preparing amendments to consents in light of likely future breaches.
Innovation
Heat tolerant fuels and materials.
Resiliency testing.
Distributed energy systems.
Improved Irrigation methods.
Improved water storage methods.
Adoption of new technologies to combat evaporation (monolayers etc.)
Investment in stronger ice resistant and heat resistant blades on wind turbines.
New Transmission lines, updating of grid infrastructure.
New forms of generation (i.e. biomass, biofuels, solar, tidal).
Efficiency
Changes in peak generation.
Flattening out of production.
Ensuring sufficient resources for increased generation in Summer.
Investment and continued operation of small-medium sized schemes.
Minimising risk
Adaptation measures part of health and safety strategy.
Restructuring of disaster preparation plans to accommodate climate risk.
Greater emphasis on fire, storm and flooding.
Limiting need for non-renewables.
Diversifying Production (hydro + wind, wind + solar, addition of new forms of generation at
single schemes).
Conclusion
As noted this month by New Zealand’s Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, Dr. Jan
Wright, the nation needs to give greater attention to environmental problems that are irreversible,
cumulative and/or accelerating. Climate change is all three. Ignoring warming for the sake of peace
of mind, misguided scepticism or wanting to maintain a business-as-usual approach is simply poor
environmental management. Our world is already changing. Trustpower has the potential to be a
leader in the electricity market, providing new solutions that will allow the company to thrive as a
global company. Adaptation is the key to survival, and awareness is the very first step.
This report has thoroughly identified the effects, provided planning mechanisms and included
various solutions. By doing so, it has demonstrated the need for climate change as a central issue
to be discussed, strategized over and accommodated. This will eliminate the risks of being
suddenly inundated with problems when changes do occur, whether this be from environmental,
economic, political or social impacts. Trustpower, by placing the impetus on forward-thinking risk
assessment, will be able to remain confident knowing that potentially catastrophic effects have
been substantially minimised by the company well in advance.

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Report produced by Meghan Stuthridge, Environmental Assistant, Generation Division.