The sharp decline in Chinese stock markets a few months ago is a reminder of two things. The first is the continued fragility of the Chinese market. The second is that any economic dysfunction has political implications, both in Chinese domestic and foreign policy. This, in turn, will affect Chinese economic performance. It is essential, therefore, to understand Chinese national strategy. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been portrayed as an increasingly aggressive country prepared to challenge the United States. At the same time, aside from relatively minor forays into the South and East China Seas, China has avoided significant involvement in the troubles roiling in the rest of Eurasia. There is a gap between what is generally expected of China and what China actually does. To understand China's strategy, it is helpful to follow the logic inherent in the following five maps.

1. 5 Maps That
Explain China’s
Strategy

2. The People’s Republic of China
has always been portrayed as
an increasingly aggressive
country prepared to challenge
the United States.

3. At the same time, China has
avoided significant involvement
in the troubles roiling in the
rest of Eurasia.

4. In other words, there is a gap
between what is generally
expected of China and what
China actually does.

5. To understand what China’s
actual national strategy is, let’s
look at the following five maps.

6. Half of China Is Inhabited by Ethnic Groups
That Resisted Chinese Domination

7. First, we need to make a
distinction between two
Chinas.

8. There is the China—with its
international borders—we see
on maps.

9. But there is also the China
inhabited by the Han Chinese,
the main Chinese ethnic group.

10. Han China is surrounded within
China by regions populated by
other nations, including Tibet,
Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and
Manchuria.

11. These four regions are a buffer
around China, providing
strategic depth to repel
invaders.

12. All four, however, resisted
Chinese domination, as Tibet
and Xinjiang still do today.

13. The Rainfall Line Roughly Defines What
We Think of as the Chinese

14. A very similar geography
emerges when we look at
rainfall patterns.

15. The line, called the 15-inch
Isohyet, separates the area in
the east that receives enough
rainfall to maintain an
agricultural economy.

16. As a result, the majority of
Chinese live in this area, while
non-Han Chinese regions in the
west are lightly inhabited or
uninhabited.

17. That means the Chinese
population is crowded into a
much smaller area and is
farther from its neighbors.

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19. Most Chinese Wealth Is Concentrated 200
Miles from the Coast

20. The economic difference
between China’s coastal region
and the rest of China is striking.

21. Economically, only the coast is
above the median. Every other
area is below it.

22. Over 650 million Chinese
citizens live in households
earning less than $4 a day,
according to World Bank data.

23. Obviously, the overwhelming
majority of these people live
outside the coastal region.

24. The China that most
Westerners think about is the
thin strip along the coast.

25. The rest (500–1,000 miles
west), however, is a land of Han
Chinese living in Third World
poverty.

26. China’s Biggest Threat Is Itself

27. China’s southern border
consists of the Himalayas in the
west and hilly jungle country in
the east.

28. It is impossible to conduct
major military operations in the
Himalayas and a nightmare to
fight in hilly jungles of
southeast Asia.

29. To the north, China is bordered
by Siberia, which no country
has ever tried to invade or
mount an invasion from.

30. Except for the Pacific Coast,
China is secure and contained.

31. Therefore, China’s primary
strategic interest is maintaining
the territorial integrity of China
from internal threats.

32. If it lost control of Tibet or
Xinjiang, China’s borders would
move far east, the buffer for
Han China would disappear,
and then China would face a
strategic crisis.

33. China Has Only One External Strategic
Interest—the Seas to the East

34. China has vital maritime
interests built around global
trade, but the problem is the
sea lanes are under
American control.

35. China’s coastal seas are
surrounded by archipelagos of
island states with narrow
passages between them.

36. These passages could be easily
closed at will by the US Navy.

37. China currently lacks resources
to build a navy that could
match the US, so the country is
buying time by trying to appear
more capable than it is.

38. The Chinese will maintain this
posture until it has the time
and resources to close the gap.

39. In summary, China has three
strategic imperatives. Two
internal and one external.

40. First, it must maintain control
over Xinjiang and Tibet. Second,
it must preserve the regime and
prevent regionalism.

41. And last, it must find a solution
to its enclosure in the East and
South China Seas.

42. China’s strategic priority now,
however, is internal stability.
And that defines everything
else China does.

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George Friedman provides unbiased assessment of the global
outlook in his free publication, This Week in Geopolitics.
Subscribe now and get an in-depth view of the forces that
will drive events and investors in the next year, decade, or
even a century from now.
Subscribe here