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From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 1
From upstream to portfolio Kanban
July 2018
patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com
Going beyond the obvious
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 2
Business agility
More than agile development
Develop / DeliverBusiness / CustomerUser / Consumer
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 3
SUPPLY
DEMAND
Balance and flow
At all levels
CREATE &
SHAPE DEMAND
In order to make
better use of
(constrained)
delivery capability
IMPROVE
(DELIVERY)
CAPABILITY
In order to better
meet (fluctuating)
demand
satisfied needsuspected need
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 4
Fluctuating demand, variable capacity
Capacity
Demand
Excess capacity
(starvation)
Lack of capacity
(overburdening)
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 5
Feedforward and feedback
Knowledge discovery Across the value stream
Viability
Feasibility
Desirability
FEEDBACK
How does it impact users?
How can we solve the problem?
Discover
(tension)
Divergence Convergence
One of many
options
Design
(concept)
Convergence
One of few
options
Divergence
Convergence
Embedded
options
Develop
(product)
Divergence
What is the problem or opportunity?
business
Deliver
(solution)
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 6
Agile Portfolio management
A cornerstone of business agility
Image courtesy of
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 7
WIP Limit
Beyond the obvious
Incommensurable
demand
Team End-to-end Multi-team Multi-customer Portfolio
Conflicting
demand
Over-
burdening
Fluctuating
demand
Heterogenous
capability
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 8
Using System dynamics
Stock
Inflow Outflow
Population
Birth rate Death rate
R
Bigger population
-> more babies
B
Bigger population
-> more deaths
delay delay
Oscillation
stock
S-curve
stock
Exponential
stock
Goal-seeking
stock
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 9
Flow of work
Rate of starting work Rate of finishing work
S-curve
WIP
R
Exponential
WIP
Blocked
work
+
+
B
Goal-seeking
WIP
Pull
options
+
+
WIP*
c
WIP limit
*
Work in progress
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 10
End to end flow
Upstream – creating options
Downstream – exercising options
Inventory
System Kanban (system lead time)
Customer Kanban (customer lead time)
Upstream Kanban (upstream lead time)
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 11
Demand and supply
Ready
options
Free
capacity
Liquidity
DEMAND
SUPPLY
Exercise
options
Commit
capacity
and
O
O
delay
delaydelay
delay
DownstreamUpstream
Release
capacity
O
Too little capacity
O
Create
options
Too little options
or
Just enough options
Just enough capacity
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 12
Modeling end-to-end flow
Overburdening
(lack of supply)
+
+
Starvation
(lack of demand)
-
+
Rate of creating options Rate of exercising options
Options
inventory
upstream downstream
Oscillation
delay delay
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 13
boom and bust cycles
Inventory of
options Upstream batch size
Time
Upstream lead time
Exercise
Delay
Exercise
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 14
Order points
Avoiding starvation
Order point
Upstream batch size
Upstream lead time
Time
Inventory of
options
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 15
Order points
Adding safety stock
Order point
Safety stock
Upstream batch size
Upstream lead time
Time
Inventory of
options
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 16
Example
Ready to
commit
Upstream Downstream
>= 12
Order point
(incl. 2 items safety stock)
Ready to
execute
Downstream
delivers 5
items per
week
Upstream lead time
is 2 weeks
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 17
WIP Limit
Order point
Beyond the obvious
Incommensurable
demand
Team End-to-end Multi-team Multi-customer Portfolio
Conflicting
demand
Over-
burdening
Fluctuating
demand
Heterogenous
capability
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 18
Heterogenous capabilities
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 19
S-curve
WIP
Team
level
S-curve
RIP
Cross-team
level
The whole is more than the sum of parts
”Work-in-progress under control”
”Request-in-progress not under control”
S-curveWIP S-curve
WIP
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 20
CAP TOKENS
REPRESENTING CAPACITY
Finish request
Start request
Starting work requires
the right set of CAP
tokens
B
Y
R
B
CAP tokens are returned
when work is finished
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 21
Matching
Demand must be matched
with available capacity to get
executed.
Team blue
Team red
Team yellow
Upstream Downstream
Ready to
commit
Ready to
execute
Demand must be matched
with available capacity to get
executed.
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 22
Reservation
Ready to
commit
Selected
CAP tokens are moved upstream
to reserve capacity for an
important upcoming demand
Team blue
Team red
Team yellow
Upstream Downstream
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 23
MULTIPLE CUSTOMERS
Ready to
commit
Selected
Customer X
Customer Y
Customer Z
Conflicting demand
(total 3 blues required,
while only 2 are available)
Team blue
Team red
Team yellow
Upstream Downstream
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 24
Market place
Ready to
commit
Selected
Customer X
Customer Y
Customer Z
Team blue
Team red
Team yellow
Upstream Downstream
Communal sharing
Authority ranking
Equality matching
Market pricing
Alan Page Fiske, Structures of Social Life
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 25
WIP Limit
Order point
CAP Token
Market place
Beyond the obvious
Incommensurable
demand
Team End-to-end Multi-team Multi-customer Portfolio
Conflicting
demand
Over-
burdening
Fluctuating
demand
Heterogenous
capability
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 26
Incommensurability
not able to be judged by the same standards; having no common
standard of measurement
?
!
A
B
C
A and C are
incommensurable they
cannot be easily
compared (nor ordered)
A and B are
commensurable, they
can be (easily)
compared (and ordered)
!
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 27
Not all should be treated alike
Viability
Feasibility
Desirability
FEEDBACK
What is the problem or opportunity?
How does it impact users?
Can we solve the problem?
Discover
(tension)
Divergence Convergence
One of many
options
Design
(concept)
Convergence
One of few
options
Divergence
Convergence
Embedded
options
Develop
(product)
Divergence
Deliver
(solution)
Minimum Viable Product (MVP)
Test / Experiment
Spike
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 28
SUPPLY
DEMAND
Under pressure
DEMAND in most
case exceeds
capacity by far. It is
easier to come up
with an idea than to
realize it.
To protect SUPPLY,
we need to select
demand. This
requires that we can
compare different
demands.
In circumstances when demand is incommensurable, this is
impossible. In circumstances where demand is commensurable
it creates upstream delay that leads to oscillation.
1
2
3
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 29
Triage
Routing patients under time pressure
Ambulant – “walking wounded”; will be treated when
practical
Observation – stable for the moment but requires
watching by trained persons and frequent re-triage
Immediate – "cannot wait" but are likely to survive with
immediate treatment
Expectant – so severely injured that they are unlikely to
survive given the care available
TAG - TRIAGE
Expectant
TAG - TRIAGE
Observation
TAG - TRIAGE
Immediate
TAG - TRIAGE
Ambulant
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 30
More
than
prio-
ritization
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 31
Triage
Routing demand under time pressure
Pull (on demand) – The demand will be treated when
practical; start when capacity allows
Pre-empt (to avoid expediting) – Examine the demand
pro-actively; keep ahead of events
Expedite (for immediate action) – All hands on deck; the
demand needs immediate action; swarm if needed
Escalate (for decision making) – Validity of the demand
is questioned
TAG - TRIAGE
Escalate
TAG - TRIAGE
Pre-empt
TAG - TRIAGE
Expedite
TAG - TRIAGE
Pull
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 32
Routing
Develop
(product)
Deliver
(solution)
Viability
Feasibility
Desirability
FEEDBACK
Discover
(tension)
Design
(concept)
Demand
Challenged demand Unchallenged demand
(taking the long route) (taking the short route)
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 33
Ready to
commit
S/A in
Progress
Synthesis/Analysis
Portfolio Kanban
Discovery Approval
Ready for
S/A
Approval in
progress
Approved
Capture
>= 1
>= 5
Order
points
Low risk / friction
items skip discovery
Triage
Order
points
>= 3
Minimal
options
Reserved
capacity
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 34
WIP Limit
Order point
CAP Token
Market place
Triage
Agile portfolio management
Incommensurable
demand
Team End-to-end Multi-team Multi-customer Portfolio
Conflicting
demand
Over-
burdening
Fluctuating
demand
Heterogenous
capability
Beyond the obvious
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 35
Thank you@PatrickSteyaert @OkaloaFlowlab
More info about Okaloa Flowlab at www.okaloa.com/flowlab
Or join our Business Agility training at www.okaloa.com/business-agility-training
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 36
CONTACT DETAILS t +32 473 56 50 98
t +32 477 79 12 98
arlette.vercammen@okaloa.com
patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com
@OkaloaFlowlab
@PatrickSteyaert

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Agile Portfolio Kanban Beyond Obvious

  • 1. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 1 From upstream to portfolio Kanban July 2018 patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com Going beyond the obvious
  • 2. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 2 Business agility More than agile development Develop / DeliverBusiness / CustomerUser / Consumer
  • 3. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 3 SUPPLY DEMAND Balance and flow At all levels CREATE & SHAPE DEMAND In order to make better use of (constrained) delivery capability IMPROVE (DELIVERY) CAPABILITY In order to better meet (fluctuating) demand satisfied needsuspected need
  • 4. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 4 Fluctuating demand, variable capacity Capacity Demand Excess capacity (starvation) Lack of capacity (overburdening)
  • 5. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 5 Feedforward and feedback Knowledge discovery Across the value stream Viability Feasibility Desirability FEEDBACK How does it impact users? How can we solve the problem? Discover (tension) Divergence Convergence One of many options Design (concept) Convergence One of few options Divergence Convergence Embedded options Develop (product) Divergence What is the problem or opportunity? business Deliver (solution)
  • 6. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 6 Agile Portfolio management A cornerstone of business agility Image courtesy of
  • 7. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 7 WIP Limit Beyond the obvious Incommensurable demand Team End-to-end Multi-team Multi-customer Portfolio Conflicting demand Over- burdening Fluctuating demand Heterogenous capability
  • 8. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 8 Using System dynamics Stock Inflow Outflow Population Birth rate Death rate R Bigger population -> more babies B Bigger population -> more deaths delay delay Oscillation stock S-curve stock Exponential stock Goal-seeking stock
  • 9. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 9 Flow of work Rate of starting work Rate of finishing work S-curve WIP R Exponential WIP Blocked work + + B Goal-seeking WIP Pull options + + WIP* c WIP limit * Work in progress
  • 10. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 10 End to end flow Upstream – creating options Downstream – exercising options Inventory System Kanban (system lead time) Customer Kanban (customer lead time) Upstream Kanban (upstream lead time)
  • 11. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 11 Demand and supply Ready options Free capacity Liquidity DEMAND SUPPLY Exercise options Commit capacity and O O delay delaydelay delay DownstreamUpstream Release capacity O Too little capacity O Create options Too little options or Just enough options Just enough capacity
  • 12. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 12 Modeling end-to-end flow Overburdening (lack of supply) + + Starvation (lack of demand) - + Rate of creating options Rate of exercising options Options inventory upstream downstream Oscillation delay delay
  • 13. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 13 boom and bust cycles Inventory of options Upstream batch size Time Upstream lead time Exercise Delay Exercise
  • 14. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 14 Order points Avoiding starvation Order point Upstream batch size Upstream lead time Time Inventory of options
  • 15. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 15 Order points Adding safety stock Order point Safety stock Upstream batch size Upstream lead time Time Inventory of options
  • 16. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 16 Example Ready to commit Upstream Downstream >= 12 Order point (incl. 2 items safety stock) Ready to execute Downstream delivers 5 items per week Upstream lead time is 2 weeks
  • 17. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 17 WIP Limit Order point Beyond the obvious Incommensurable demand Team End-to-end Multi-team Multi-customer Portfolio Conflicting demand Over- burdening Fluctuating demand Heterogenous capability
  • 18. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 18 Heterogenous capabilities
  • 19. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 19 S-curve WIP Team level S-curve RIP Cross-team level The whole is more than the sum of parts ”Work-in-progress under control” ”Request-in-progress not under control” S-curveWIP S-curve WIP
  • 20. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 20 CAP TOKENS REPRESENTING CAPACITY Finish request Start request Starting work requires the right set of CAP tokens B Y R B CAP tokens are returned when work is finished
  • 21. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 21 Matching Demand must be matched with available capacity to get executed. Team blue Team red Team yellow Upstream Downstream Ready to commit Ready to execute Demand must be matched with available capacity to get executed.
  • 22. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 22 Reservation Ready to commit Selected CAP tokens are moved upstream to reserve capacity for an important upcoming demand Team blue Team red Team yellow Upstream Downstream
  • 23. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 23 MULTIPLE CUSTOMERS Ready to commit Selected Customer X Customer Y Customer Z Conflicting demand (total 3 blues required, while only 2 are available) Team blue Team red Team yellow Upstream Downstream
  • 24. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 24 Market place Ready to commit Selected Customer X Customer Y Customer Z Team blue Team red Team yellow Upstream Downstream Communal sharing Authority ranking Equality matching Market pricing Alan Page Fiske, Structures of Social Life
  • 25. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 25 WIP Limit Order point CAP Token Market place Beyond the obvious Incommensurable demand Team End-to-end Multi-team Multi-customer Portfolio Conflicting demand Over- burdening Fluctuating demand Heterogenous capability
  • 26. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 26 Incommensurability not able to be judged by the same standards; having no common standard of measurement ? ! A B C A and C are incommensurable they cannot be easily compared (nor ordered) A and B are commensurable, they can be (easily) compared (and ordered) !
  • 27. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 27 Not all should be treated alike Viability Feasibility Desirability FEEDBACK What is the problem or opportunity? How does it impact users? Can we solve the problem? Discover (tension) Divergence Convergence One of many options Design (concept) Convergence One of few options Divergence Convergence Embedded options Develop (product) Divergence Deliver (solution) Minimum Viable Product (MVP) Test / Experiment Spike
  • 28. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 28 SUPPLY DEMAND Under pressure DEMAND in most case exceeds capacity by far. It is easier to come up with an idea than to realize it. To protect SUPPLY, we need to select demand. This requires that we can compare different demands. In circumstances when demand is incommensurable, this is impossible. In circumstances where demand is commensurable it creates upstream delay that leads to oscillation. 1 2 3
  • 29. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 29 Triage Routing patients under time pressure Ambulant – “walking wounded”; will be treated when practical Observation – stable for the moment but requires watching by trained persons and frequent re-triage Immediate – "cannot wait" but are likely to survive with immediate treatment Expectant – so severely injured that they are unlikely to survive given the care available TAG - TRIAGE Expectant TAG - TRIAGE Observation TAG - TRIAGE Immediate TAG - TRIAGE Ambulant
  • 30. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 30 More than prio- ritization
  • 31. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 31 Triage Routing demand under time pressure Pull (on demand) – The demand will be treated when practical; start when capacity allows Pre-empt (to avoid expediting) – Examine the demand pro-actively; keep ahead of events Expedite (for immediate action) – All hands on deck; the demand needs immediate action; swarm if needed Escalate (for decision making) – Validity of the demand is questioned TAG - TRIAGE Escalate TAG - TRIAGE Pre-empt TAG - TRIAGE Expedite TAG - TRIAGE Pull
  • 32. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 32 Routing Develop (product) Deliver (solution) Viability Feasibility Desirability FEEDBACK Discover (tension) Design (concept) Demand Challenged demand Unchallenged demand (taking the long route) (taking the short route)
  • 33. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 33 Ready to commit S/A in Progress Synthesis/Analysis Portfolio Kanban Discovery Approval Ready for S/A Approval in progress Approved Capture >= 1 >= 5 Order points Low risk / friction items skip discovery Triage Order points >= 3 Minimal options Reserved capacity
  • 34. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 34 WIP Limit Order point CAP Token Market place Triage Agile portfolio management Incommensurable demand Team End-to-end Multi-team Multi-customer Portfolio Conflicting demand Over- burdening Fluctuating demand Heterogenous capability Beyond the obvious
  • 35. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 35 Thank you@PatrickSteyaert @OkaloaFlowlab More info about Okaloa Flowlab at www.okaloa.com/flowlab Or join our Business Agility training at www.okaloa.com/business-agility-training
  • 36. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 36 CONTACT DETAILS t +32 473 56 50 98 t +32 477 79 12 98 arlette.vercammen@okaloa.com patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com @OkaloaFlowlab @PatrickSteyaert