Impacts of Climate Change on Animal Agriculture
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for more, http://www.extension.org/69093 Changes in precipitation and temperature vary by region. In general the US is seeing more precipitation and the timing and intensity of precipitation is also changing. While global temperatures are increasing, it is the variability and intensity of temperatures that are of greatest consequence to animal agriculture.
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Impacts of Climate Change on Animal Agriculture
- 1. Impacts of Climate Change on Animal Agriculture David Schmidt, PE University of Minnesota
- 2. Economic Losses from Heat Stress by US Livestock Industries = $2.4 Billion per year -St. Pierre et al 2003
- 5. Changing Precipitation Amount, Intensity, Timing Regional, Seasonal
- 6. Changing Temperatures Averages, Maximums, Overnight Lows Regional and Seasonal
- 7. Extremes Flooding, Drought Regional and Seasonal
- 8. Risk and Probability From: Livestock Energetics and Thermal Environment Return Frequency
- 9. Risk and Probability 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Days/year Year Pipestone MN, Low temp 72 F or above (cliMATE)
- 10. Assessing Impacts (Assessing Vulnerabilities or Risk Assessment)
- 11. Four Impact Categories Farm Inputs Animal Production Farm Logistics Farm Exports
- 12. Farm Inputs Impacts: Pests, Weeds, and Disease, Growing Season Feed and Forage: Availability and Cost
- 13. Farm Inputs Feed and Forage: Availability Quality Pasture: Quality, Availability, Timing
- 14. Farm InputsFeed and Forage Carbon Dioxide
- 15. Farm Inputs Energy: Availability and Cost Electricity Blackouts Storm Damage Fuel Supply Disruption Fuel Price Variability
- 16. Farm Inputs Water: Availability, Quality, Price Drinking Feed production
- 17. Animal Production (Assessing Vulnerabilities or Risk Assessment)
- 18. Economic Losses from Heat Stress by US Livestock Industries = $2.4 Billion per year -St. Pierre et al 2003
- 19. Animal Production Heat Stress: Efficiencies Intake and Conversion Courtesy: Mike Brumm (Swine Impacts, AACC)
- 20. Vulnerabilities: -Species -Stage of production -Genetics Higher producing dairy cows Faster growing animals (swine, cattle, poultry) -Health status of animals -Acclimation period Animal Production Heat Stress: Feed Intake and Conversion Temperature Humidity Air speed Event Duration Night time cooling period
- 21. Animal Production Heat Stress: Reproduction and Other http://www.lallemandanimalnutrition.com/blog/heat-stress-an-underestimated-issue-for-dairy-cows
- 22. Animal Production Pests and Diseases
- 23. Animal Production Catastrophic Death Loss
- 24. Logistical Impacts (Assessing Vulnerabilities or Risk Assessment)
- 25. Logistics Manure Management: Capacity, Nutrient Loss, Application Windows
- 27. Logistics Transportation and Animal Handling Flooding and Storms Roads and Bridges Heat Handling and feeding Time of day to haul or handle animals Density on truck Time on the truck
- 28. Logistics Labor Travel to work Heat stress at work Heat stress at home Flooded basements
- 29. Export Impacts (Assessing Vulnerabilities or Risk Assessment)
- 30. Farm Exports Daily Livestock Report Vol. 12, No. 145 / July 28, 2014 USDA: Weekly livestock poultry and grain market highlights Aug 11, 2014 Prices Supply and Demand Global Connections More Variability
- 31. Impact Audit Climate Changes Farm Inputs Animal Production Logistics Exports Precipitation Temperature Extremes Identify Vulnerabilities
- 32. More Details Course Reading and Project Website www.animalagclimatechange.org
- 33. Livestock and Poultry Environmental Learning Center Project Support This project was supported by Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant No. 2011-67003-30206 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
- 34. www.animalagclimatechange.org National Lead: University of Nebraska Regional Partners: University of Georgia; Cornell University; University of Minnesota; Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, and Washington State University. Project Partners Our Mission Animal agriculture in a changing climate fosters animal production practices that are: environmentally sound and economically viable, and that create resiliency for animal producers and their partners.
Notas do Editor
- Results of this study suggest total industry losses of 2.4 billion per year with the species specific impacts as shown. For general purposes this model is adequate but the complexity of heat stress impacts is just now being understood.
- It is clear that there are some real impacts of extreme heat and flooding on animal production. Losses in 2011 from the heat and drought were significant with 7.62 billion estimated lost in Texas agriculture alone. Livestock represent about half of this loss.
- You just finished a lecture on climate trends – what has been happening with temperature and weather over the distant and recent past. We remember that there are precipitation changes include amount, intensity and timing.
- Temperature trends include averages, nighttime low temperatures, and extremes temps. These changes have direct effects on feed and forage growth but also on animal production as we shall see. Once again, these changes are seasonal and geographically specific.
- Climate changes also include extreme events. Precipitation – lots or no so much. Heat waves, cold snaps, etc. Impacts from these mega events can be devastating. Key to these events is thinking about probabilities.
- Impacts are all about frequency, uncertainty and probability. One heat wave is not a climate impact. Here is one study looking at the probability of heat waves. The darker area in the inside is showing a 2 years in 5 probabiliyt of a major heat wave and the outer lighter area is a 1 in 4 probabailty of a major heat wave. These are current probabilities but the question remains – the impacts on businesses will change as these frequencies increase.
- Another frequency example is also related to heat. The graph shows the number of days per year nighttime temperatures were above 72 degrees in MN. As can be seen, this frequency is increasing so it is not just about being impacted by a single event but being impacted by multiple events that is of concern. Farm’s may be able to with stand the impacts of 5 heatwaves in 20 years but what about 10 heatwaves?
- The objective of this
- One of the most obvious impacts is the feed and forage. Temperature and rainfall are key drivers in the length of growing season and the productivity of the fields. In addition there are trends in pests, weeds and diseases that follow the temperature and precipitation trends.
- Continuing with feed and forage impacts are the changes in pasture quality and quantity for grazing animals or simply that fields can be flooded or barren unexpectedly during certain times of the year due to these extreme events. In the additional readings there are some great articles and a video link on the topic of feed and forage. These impacts are real and occurring now.
- One last item to note regarding feed and forage. There is strong evidence that C3 plants exposed to higher CO2 concentrations will result in increased biomass growth. Soybeans, rice, barley, wheat and most weeds are C3 plants. C4 plants are more efficient water users but do not resopond as favorably to higher CO2 concentrations. The issue gets much more complex when items like rainfall, pests, disease and all of the other plant growth factors are included. Taken on its own there is a crop benefit to the increased CO2 but we must remember this is only part of the story.
- Animal agriculture cannot survive without water. This farm input comes from underground aquifers or surface waters. It is used to water the animals and often produce feed. Predictability, availability and timing are critical.
- However, general day to day heat stress is likely the source of the biggest loss in the industry due to heat. Heat stress impacts, feed intake, feed conversion, reproduction and a host of other vital functions in the animal. Heat stress impacts are species specific. I would encourage you to read more about species specific heat stress on the project website or in the additional course readings.
- Beyond feed intake and conversion efficiency there are many physiological impacts of heat on animals. Here are some of those impacts on a dairy cow. There is more on the website or additional readings on the complexity of heat stress on different animal species.
- Diseases and pests also respond to climate changes. Warmer temperatures, mild winters, changing rainfall allow migration and survival. Outbreaks are changing in space, time and intensity.
- Not in original narrated video.
- Climate changes are critical for manure management decisions. Rainfall amounts, timing and intensity impact manure storage sizing. If the size of storage is not adjusted then the issue becomes timing of manure applications to keep the storage from overtopping. When it comes to application, rainfall can conflict with the ability to apply manure. In addition, temperature and humidity are critical factors when trying to determine nitrogen availabilitya nd losses.
- Geographic location could also be considered in logistical impacts. What specific impacts of rainfall might make animal handling more difficult or add to the labor requirements on the farm – or impact profits? Lots with better drainage? Pastures in low areas? These are logistical problems.
- What about transportation of feed onto the farm or animals or products off the farm. Impact of rainfall on roads and bridges limiting the transportation option. There may also be heat impacts requiring more intensive management with hauling or handling the animals
- Manure
- Farm profits are dependent on market prices. Market prices are cyclical and impacted by climatic events on a local, national or global scale. Example: Drought in Australia of 2013 having an impact on world dairy markets. Another example is the long term impact of the Texas drought of 2012, 2013 on cattle supplies and prices.
- I cannot possibly hope to provide all of the many impacts of a changing climate on animal agriculture. There are farm specific impacts along with regional, national, and global impacts. Impacts such as heat stress, drought or flooding are easy to identify. Others such as manure management, labor, roads and bridges, are site specific or species specific. Key is to pay attention to the little things and use a systematic way to identify vulnerabilities. Next lesson – how we can adapt to these impacts or reduce the risk of these impacts on our bottom line.
- All of the work on this project was done through the generous support of you and your tax dollars through the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
- Project partners include the University of Nebraska as lead institution and the regional partners as shown. For more information, please visit us online at animalagclimatechange.org