Educational Planning

1. C H A P T E R 3 :
F U T U R I S T I C
P L A N N I N G
LAZARO S. AREVALO
EDM 221

4. EDUCATIONAL FUTURISM
SCENARIO- a statement of assumptions about the
operating environment of the system to be studied.
-it is a brief description of future situations
which could arise by the continuing interaction of a
number of socio-economic, political, and other trends
which can be identified currently.

5. STEPS IN DEVELOPING SCENARIO
1. Identification of the individual trends which will produce
basic long-term trends
2. Agreement on assumptions relating to possible future
environments
3. Listing of logical outcomes with respect to possible future
environments.
4. Estimate the probability of occurrence of those outcomes.
5. Choose the two most probable outcomes
6. Repeat steps 3, 4 and 5 for those outcomes.

6. The consideration of future problems for education may
be the following:
1. The necessity to adopt education to individual needs
2. The necessity to educate an independent autonomous personality
3. The necessity to educate a practical-minded method organization
of man
4. Educational technology as a means of individualizing education
5. The formation of value-consciousness as a factor of an
independent personality
6. Methods of teaching and guidance for developing ability in social
activities

7. THE SCENARIO AS AN APPROACH
TO STUDYING THE FUTURE
Forecasting Method
Forecast is carefully formed, time-based
opinion about the future

8. Forecasting Method
*Exploratory vs Normative Forecasting
Exploratory forecasting- starts from today's assured
basis of knowledge and is oriented toward the multiple
opportunities that the future may hold.
Normative forecasting- begins with the definition of
particular desired future goal by working backward to
the present. It describes an optional path from current
reality to the specified target.

9. Forecasting Method
*Forecasting vs. Planning
Planning- is a process moving from goal
formulation, through statements of specific objectives,
definition and evaluation of alternative strategies,
implementation and evaluation with feedback loops
existing in each step of the process.
Forecasting- serves as an aid to the planner in the
definition and evaluation of alternatives

10. THE PROCESS OF SCENARIO WRITING
An example of such a list for social forecasting might
include such areas as:
A. War or Peace
B. Technology
1. Transport 5. Energy Conversion
2. Communications 6. Environmental Control
3. Computers 7. New Materials
4. Health Sciences

11. THE PROCESS OF SCENARIO WRITING
An example of such a list for social forecasting might include such
areas as:
C. Population
1. Size and structure
2. Distribution
D. Limiting Conditions of Economic Growth
E. Occupational Structure
1. Personal Income
2. Status
3. Labor Organizations

12. THE PROCESS OF SCENARIO WRITING
An example of such a list for social forecasting might
include such areas as:
F. Family Structure
G. Community
H. Prevailing Political Ethics
I. Distribution of Economic power
J. Race Relations
K. Values

13. THE PROCESS OF SCENARIO W RITING
An example of such a list for social forecasting might include such areas as:
F. Family Structure
G. Community
H. Prevailing Political Ethics
I. Distribution of Economic power
J. Race Relations
K. Values
ATTITUDES ABOUT THE FUTURE AS A PLANNING
MODE
by Eric Trist
MODE PAST
PRESEN
T
FUTURE
ATTITUD
E
INACTIVE - + - Wait and See
Re-Active + - - Put it back
Pre-Active - - + Predict/Prepare
Inter-Active + + + Make it

14. EDUCATIONAL PLANNING FOR THE YEAR
2000
Hailak ”Bullets Points"
I. Educational planning in a changing context
a. The political setting Two main developments affecting
education.
-Disartment and New International Relationships
-Democratization
b. The conceptual shift
c. The demographic dimension

15. EDUCATIONAL PLANNING FOR THE YEAR 2000
Hailak ”Bullets Points"
II. The outlook for educational planning
1. The scope: diversity of approaches and practices
2. The main converging trends
-The need for long term prospective studies
-Policy dialogue and analysis
-Rolling planning
-Hybrid planning
-More blurred distinction between planning and administration
-More qualitative concerns

16. EDUCATIONAL PLANNING FOR THE
YEAR 2000
Hailak ”Bullets Points"
II. The outlook for educational planning
3. The main methodological consequences
-The central role information
-The key role of comparative research and studies
-The case for studies on incentives and regulating mechanisms
-The case for policy analysis and strategies
-Negotiation and communication

17. EDUCATIONAL PLANNING FOR THE
YEAR 2000
Hailak ”Bullets Points"
III. International co-operation: What to support?
-Upstream
-Capacity-building
-Innovative actions

18. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN
THE PHILIPPINES
The Quest for a Future Desired Society
For the Filipino human environment. Such a society is:
1. Person- centered- focusing care on the needs of individual
2. Meritocratic- a social system, society, or organization in which
people get success or power because of their abilities, not
because of their money or social position
3. Humane- showing kindness, care, and sympathy toward others,
especially those who are suffering
4. Democratic- pertaining to the principle of political or social
equality for all

19. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN
THE PHILIPPINES
Societal Patterns for the Future
A. The Rand Corporation projects that:
*By 1984, the world population will be 4.3 billion: by 2000 A. D,
5.1
billion
*Agriculture will be automated, sea water will be dessalinated,
food
will be obtained from oceans and synthetic material
*Birth rate will be under control
*There will be no more effective weather control.

20. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE
PHILIPPINES
Societal Patterns for the Future
B. Alvin Toffler is saying that by 2000 A.D.
*We will have sophisticated machines.
*We will have more exploration into deep space space stations
and utilization by man of the moon.
*We will have technology to control the weather air and water
pollution
*Genetic engineering will include cloning, birth technology through
transplantation eugenics, Iife-spans of up to 150 to 200 yrs
*Technology will revolutionize learning

21. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE
PHILIPPINES
Societal Patterns for the Future
C. Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener identified 13 rubrics as a basic trends of
Western Civilization up to 2000 A D
*Growth of increasingly secular cultures
*Accumulation of scientific and technological changes and
knowledge
*Institutionalization of change especially research,
development,
innovation and diffusion.
*Population growth
*Literacy and education will increase, but in new forms

22. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE
PHILIPPINES
Societal Patterns for the Future
D. American Commission- 2000 A.D. identified 100 technical innovations,
some of these are:
*Multiple applications of lasers and masers for both peaceful
and destructive uses.
*New airborne vehicles
*Extensive modernization of agriculture and forestry.
*Capability to choose the sex of the unborn children
*Robots as human slaves
*New methods for teaching language rapidly
*Automated supermarkets

23. SOME SPECIFIC PHILIPPINE SOCIETAL
PROJECTIONS RELATING TO HIGHER
EDUCATION
Paris based Center for Educational Research pointed possible models for
future projections:
1. The future as the present model
2. The future as an extrapolation of the present
3. The single alternative future
4. The technological future

24. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION
IN GENERAL IN THE PHILIPPINES
1. Shifting at one extreme from the laissez faire towards more
centralized
control
2. The functions of higher education will clarify itself handed down
from
Western tradition.
3. There will be a drastic standstill, if not a decline, in the number
of private
colleges and universities.

25. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION
IN GENERAL IN THE PHILIPPINES
5. The P50 million student million student fund is apparently aimed
not only
at helping the disadvantage get equality of opportunities into
higher
education
6. It is possible that a larger Career Guidance and Personal
Counseling g
service will be provided through a consortium of schools.

26. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION
IN GENERAL IN THE PHILIPPINES
8. This attempt by the Catholics to put a Catholic Educational System
will be
strengthened
9. The problems of Metro Manila education institutions are so
complicated
10. As government increases, its aid and incentives to the private
sector it will
demand more visible performance criteria.
11. Some of the more dramatic changes in higher education will be in
the non-

27. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION
IN GENERAL IN THE PHILIPPINES
12. We can see a number of new learning and research centers coming
up in
either public or private institutions
13. Some important offices will be set up in colleges and universities
14. More schools will vary programs and accommodate, with
government prodding and assistance such as dropouts, repeaters and
failures, Professionals who seek refresher courses, etc.
15. The teaching of futurism in college will be sped up through the of up
the organization of an Institute of the future

28. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER
EDUCATION IN GENERAL IN THE
PHILIPPINES
16. Elite schools will remain
17. Education and schooling, therefore, are no longer
considered as synonymous