Mohawk College 2010 PD Day

Higher Education in
Challenging Times:
Emerging Trends 2010

Ken Steele
Senior Vice-President,
Education Marketing

Mohawk College
June 2010 | Hamilton ON

Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009
Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

My Point-of-View

Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE
Ken Steele | Copyright ©2008 Academica Group Inc.

Calculating Value


Trends
1. Environment
2. Economy
3. Demographics
4. “Millennials”
5. Competition
6. Marketing
7. Disintermediation


Environmental
Sustainability


ACCC “Pan-Canadian Protocol
for Sustainability”
(Nov 2007)

46 signatory colleges as of
Jan 2010


Renewable Energy


Bottled Water Bans
uManitoba Student
Union (Spring 2008)
Bottled water free zones
Lakehead Students
Protest (Nov 2008)
uWinnipeg (March 2009)
Memorial (Sept 2009)
Brandon U (Jan 2010)


Green Construction


uVic Soc Sci /
Math building
meets LEED Gold
(green roofs, patio
gardens, recycled
materials)
(June 2008)


uOttawa Social
Sciences bldg to be
LEED Gold – green
roofs, internal vertical
“biofilter walls”
(Jan 2009)


Lakehead University Orillia
campus to be first LEED
Platinum campus in North
America (June 2009)


BCIT’s “sustainability
precinct” aims to reduce
energy and materials
consumption by 90%
(Oct 2009)


(Opened Apr 2009)


UBC EcoTrek
UBC achieved its Kyoto targets by 2006
Largest energy retrofit in Canadian history
Saved $3.8 M in energy costs
($2.6 M annually ongoing)
Self-funding UBC Sustainability Dept
(7 staff, 10 students)
9 sustainability goals, 68 actions
More than 300 courses on sustainability


Economic Downturn


S&P / TSX Comp 2008-2009

Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE

Deficits

May 2010:
“Voluntary exit”
incentives to cut
$5.5 million in payroll.
Hiring restrictions.

$5.5 Million


Deficits

February 2009:
Fanshawe College
announces $6.5 M
shortfall – worst since
1990s when staff was
cut from 600 to 350.

$6.5 Million

Deficits

January 2009:
Durham College has
amassed $21.8 M
deficit over the past 2
years. MTCU appoints
former ADM to lead
review.

$21.8 Million

Deficits
January 2009:
Wilfrid Laurier
announces $9 M
budget cut.
Hiring freeze, course
cuts, larger class sizes
at Brantford campus.
Cuts 8 varsity teams.

$31 Million

June 2009:
Deficits
McMaster balanced 2009-10
budget through $20 M in
deferred maintenance, hiring
delays/freezes, and reserves.
Could face deficits of $50 M in
2010-11 and 2011-12.
Finance cttee chair is “very
concerned about the financial
health of the university”

$100 million

Deficits April 2009:
Endowments -$152 M
Pooled Investments
- $51 M
$33M deficit by 2011
15% budget cut,
salary freezes
Possible layoffs

$152 Million

Deficits

June 2009:
York reports 18% loss
on endowment.
Pension plan faces
potential deficit over
the next 3 years of

$250 Million

Deficits
April 2010:
2008-2012 structural
deficit of $46.2 M
$16.2 M in budget cuts
in 2010
$280 M required for
pension solvency

$280 Million


Deficits
April 2009:
29.5% investment
losses. ($1.3 B)
$62 M in endowment
disbursements
cancelled for endowed
chairs, etc.

$1.3 Billion

Deficits May 2009:
Lakehead U projects
$6.3 M deficit this year,
$35-$50 M in 5 years.
Considering hiring
freeze. 4-day shutdown
prior to Christmas
2009. CAUT grieves.

$6.3 Million

Deficits “We‘ve got to rethink
the way we do business
here at Lakehead. If we
don’t change the way
we run our business,
we’ll be just like GM…
The model just doesn’t
work under the current
funding arrangements
for a university to
Michael Pawlowski, operate.”
VP Administration & Finance


Financial Responses
Construction/Renovation stalled
Maintenance deferred
“Horizontal” budget cuts across-the-board
“Vertical” budget cuts to targeted
units/programs
Merging academic departments
Merging campuses, Institutions
For-profit purchases of ailing colleges


Financial Responses

Travel restricted
Hiring restricted/delayed/frozen
Salaries frozen or cut
Teaching loads increased
Sabbaticals cancelled
Mandatory furloughs
What’s the other obvious choice? …

Nov 2009:
Deficit
NAIT proposes 40% tuition
increase over the next 3 years.
Budget shortfall is $2.3 M.
Average tuition now is $3,800,
the lowest in the province.
Would bring it in line with SAIT
at $5,500.

+40% tuition


Nov 2009:
Deficit
uAlberta proposes tuition
increases for professional
programs of up to 66% next
year, to bring it in line with
other universities.
Also considering a “non-
academic fee” of several
hundred dollars per student to
help cover the deficit.

+66% tuition

April 2010:
Deficit
Law proposes 46.2% tuition
increase over 3 years.
Business proposes undergrad
tuition increase of 54.1% over
2 years.
MBA proposes 78.5% tuition
increase over 3 years.

up to 79%
tuition hike

April 2010:
Deficit
McGill proposes raising
Desautels MBA tuition from
$1,672 to $29,500.
(Comparable programs are up
to $70,000 elsewhere.)
Province threatens to penalize
McGill for every MBA student.

+1664%
tuition

Demographics


HRSDC projections, 2007

2008 UCAS™ Applicant Study

Multiplier Effects

“US Abortion, Vasectomy Rates Rise as
Economy Falters” (CBC News, March 25
2009)
Network of Abortion Funds reports calls
to their hotline have quadrupled from a
year ago


-120,000
over
10 years

Canadian Council on Learning, Report on Learning in
Canada 2007, PSE in Canada: Strategies for Success

GTA Population

UofT Towards 2030


Gender Trends


“The Boy Problem” AUCC and StatsCan 1966-2006


“The Girl Problem” Ontario CAS 2005-08

70

60

50

40
Male
Female
30

20

10

0
2005 2006 2007 2008

The Great He-Cession
Men account for 82%
of all job losses
since the start of the
recession
(2.7 million jobs)

New York Times, Feb 6 2009,
citing Current Population Survey and
Current Employment Statistics,
Bureau of Labor Statistics


The Millennials


The Quest for the Balanced Resume


High School Musical

“We’re all in this together”
“Everyone is special in their own way”
“We're all stars”
“There's not a star in heaven that we
can't reach”
“All our dreams have no limitations;
that's what it's all about”


Sociologists on Millennials

The "coddling model" infantilizes young
people, leading them to seek popularity
and to expect to be treated as "special" -
"precarious forms of ego-inflation" which
result in escalating anger, anxiety and
depression among university students.

-- James Coté, Ivory Tower Blues


Sociologists on Millennials
"In the past, when... a C meant
‘average'... very few students came to
universities with the (false) assumption
that they were outstanding. Most now
apparently do."
-- James Coté, Ivory Tower Blues

Don’t blame the kids…


BlackHawk
Parents


“The Me Generation
is raising the
Mini-Me Generation”
-- Peg Tyre, Newsweek March 2002
“Bringing Up Adultolescents”


BlackHawk Parents

Obsessed with safety
Emergency
notification
systems, SMS
New extremes of
surveillance…


Webcams on Campus

Rochester Institute of Tech


CUNY Brooklyn

Horizon
OneSource
“Healthy
Vending
Machines”
Parents can
check
online
accounts
Emerging Trends

Service Expectations
Wireless campus
Online periodicals
One-stop service centres
Online registration,
payments
Online preview of
residence roommates
Handheld data collection
24-hour chat


Personalization


Wilkes University | Fall 2006 | 3:00

Students’ Top 4 Priorities

1. Interesting Work
2. Work-Life Balance
3. Good People to Work With
4. Job Security

— Brainstorm Consulting, From Learning to Work
(2009 Survey of 16,000 Canadian
university and college students)


Brainstorm Consulting,
From Learning to Work
(2009 Survey of 16,000 Canadian
university and college students)

1. Government of Canada
2. Provincial Government
3. Health Canada
4. Google
5. Apple
6. Hospital for Sick Children
7. Municipal Government
8. Microsoft
9. Canadian Cancer Society
10. David Suzuki Foundation


Chronicle of Higher Ed, Sept 2009
citing academic experts,
5 Majors on the Rise business analysts, and
economic forecasters

1. Service Science (250 programs)
2. Health Informatics (270 programs)
3. Computational Science
4. Sustainability (70 programs)
5. Public Health (100+ minors)


Part-time Students

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics,
2003–04 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:04).


Part-Time Undergraduates

Anne Motte and Saul Schwartz, Are Student Employment and Academic Success Linked?
Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation Research Note #9, April 2009


Part-time Students

Challenges to:
Class Scheduling
Engagement
Retention
Academic Success
Traditional model of immersive ed


A La Carte Learning
Extremely customizable workforce
training at Kellogg Community College,
Battle Creek MI
Courses broken into 1,200 skill “modules”
Walk-in basis, Unlimited time to complete,
Pay only on completion
Eg. Machine tooling: 7 different skills in
precision measurement
Micrometer module: 0.13 credit hours,
takes about 3 hours, and costs $20.94


Rising Competition


University vs College

Scan
Environmental
Ontario, 2007
From Colleges

New Universities


New Universities

Trent in Oshawa
Algoma in Brampton
Lakehead in Orillia
Laurentian in Barrie
Laurier in Brantford
Nipissing in Brantford
McMaster in Burlington
Humber in Orangeville?
uWindsor in Niagara?


Colleges Ontario OBAY | Feb 2008 | 3:42

Blurring College/University
“The Binary Divide” is being bridged
25% of applicants to both
ACCC found 42% of college applicants
consider it a “stepping-stone” to
university
Ontario Joint and Applied Degrees
2+2 transfers – BC, Alberta, NB
U of Guelph-Humber, Seneca@York

HEQCO’s “3 Gaps”

1. “a free-standing,
degree-granting,
primarily teaching-
oriented institution
that concentrates on
undergraduate
education”



2. “an open university
that would expand
accessibility and
enable learners to
combine credits from
different institutions
and different types of
learning experiences”



3. “effective pathways
for students who
start their PSE in a
college to attain a
baccalaureate degree
and be able… to
continue on to
graduate study”


25,100 students in
1995
455,600 now –
larger than the
entire enrolment of
the “Big Ten” US
universities
200 campuses in
39 states, Canada,
Mexico,
Netherlands, and
Puerto Rico


Kaplan University
Kaplan Higher Education is the fastest-
growing arm of Kaplan Inc.
Subsidiary of the Washington Post
Operates colleges online and at
campuses throughout the US and
overseas
Generated >$367-million in revenue in
the first quarter of 2009


For-Profit Growth
Institution Fall 2009 Annual Growth
Apollo Group (uPhoenix, Meritus U) 443,000 22.3%
Education Management (Argosy U, Art Institutes) 136,000 22.7%
Career Education (American InterContinental U) 113,900 18.6%
Kaplan Higher Education (Kaplan U) 103,800 28%
DeVry 101,648 37.1%
Corinthian Colleges 93,493 25.9%
ITT Educational Services (ITT Tech Institute) 79,208 28.7%
American Public Education (American Military U) 55,300 42.2%
Bridgepoint Education (Ashford U) 54,894 79.7%
Strayer Education 54,317 21.9%
Grand Canyon Education 34,218 55.8%

SOURCE: Stifel Nicolaus Equity Research;
Chronicle of Higher Education reporting.

2010 Tuitions

US for-profits: avg $14,174
US 2-yr colleges: avg $2,544
US 4-yr public Us: avg $7,020

60% completion (vs 26% at 2-yr publics)

SOURCES: The College Board, 2010, US Dept of Education,
as reported in the Chronicle of Higher Education

Impact of Marketing Channels
Usage % Mean Influence

Website - 96% - 3.7 3 9 26 32 26
Friend's recommenda tion - 87% - 3.6 4 9 25 29 20
Brochures - 86% - 3.6 3 8 28 30 18
Viewbook /prospectus - 85% - 3.5 3 10 30 26 15
Family recommenda tion - 81% - 3.5 6 9 24 24 19
Mail contact - 79% - 3.3 7 11 25 22 15
Email contact - 79% - 3.3 8 12 25 19 15
High school teacher - 65% - 3.3 7 10 19 17 12
Liaison presenta tion - 65% - 3.3 6 10 22 17 11
Ma clea n's - 64% - 3.1 8 13 21 15 9
Informal campus tour - 64% - 3.4 4 9 20 18 12
Guida nce counsellor - 63% - 3.1 8 10 20 16 9
Formal campus tour - 62% - 3.3 5 10 19 17 11
College/Univ ersity information program - 59% - 3.2 6 10 19 15 9
Campus open house - 57% - 3.4 5 8 17 15 12
Alumni Magazine - 53% - 2.7 9 15 18 7 5
P hone contact - 53% - 3.0 9 10 15 10 9
Web portals - 53% - 2.9 7 11 18 10 6
Business ma gazines - 43% - 2.8 8 10 13 7 5
Globe & Mail - 43% - 2.8 7 11 13 7 5

0 20 40 60 80 100
Percent

Not at all Very little Somewhat Quite a bit Very much

UCAS™ Applicant Study

Benchmarking Effectiveness


Push/Pull


Brand Mapping
Excellence

Radar charts
Teaching
Social

Affordable
Research

Innovation Tradition


March 2004
St George TTC Station


Music Videos

Yale University | January 2010 | Clip 1 = 1:40

Yale University | January 2010 | Clip 2 = 2:35

U of Delaware | April 2010 | Clip 1 = 1:04

U of Delaware | April 2010 | Clip 2 = 1:32

These and hundreds more videos at
www.YouTube.com/AcademicaGroup


PSE Guarantees


Access Guarantees


Residence Guarantee


Scholarship Guarantee


uCalgary offered a 4-year graduation
guarantee


Disintermediation

Apple iPad
Launched April 2010
About 8 x 10”
Starting at $499
iBook store
Open-source format
Newspaper subscriptions

Sold 1 Million iPads in
the first 27 days
(US only)


Are Lectures Obsolete?
iTunesU, YouTube,
distance ed
Podcast lectures will
replace superclasses
Students prefer to
listen to lectures at
double speed
(Taiwan, Netherlands,
North America)


Big Implications of Web 2.0

“People get what they
need directly from
each other, not from
traditional
institutions”
-- Charlene Li & Josh Bernoff, Groundswell: Winning in a World
Transformed by Social Technologies


The Jack Welch MBA
Jack Welch, CEO of GE in the
80s and 90s
$2 M (12%) stake in
Chancellor University System
LLC
Bought formerly bankrupt
M yers University (Cleveland)
The “Jack Welch Institute”
offers a cost-cutting online
M BA - Just $20,000 tuition

2001

MIT

1,900 MIT courses

196 institutions in
OCW Consortium
(including Athabasca U, Capilano U)


Sept 2009
Peer 2 Peer U p2pu.org

7 courses pilot test
227 students signed
up from 35 countries
About half US

p2pu.org

Tens of thousands of courses
10 campuses US and Canada
Project 450,000 courses at
160 universities and colleges by
end of 2009


Open
Teaching
David Wiley, a founder
of the Open Teaching
movement
Online course at Utah
State University in Fall
2007
The Chronicle of Higher Ed asks:
Center for Open and
“Who needs college credit when Sustainable Learning
you have a makeshift diploma Gave unofficial
from a superstar professor?” students homemade
certificates for his
course


Sept 2009
UoPeople.org

UoPeople.org

University of the People
Launched Sept 2009
178 students from 49 nations
Indonesia, Colombia, Vietnam, and US
105 in business, 73 in CompSci
$15 to enrol, $100 for exam
OCW, Social networking, Volunteer profs
Accreditation ASAP
Aims for 10,000 students by 2014


Bumpy Ride Ahead


Bill Gates:
"We always overestimate the change that
will occur in the next two years and
underestimate the change that will occur
in the next ten. Don't let yourself be
lulled into inaction.”


-- Thomas Homer-Dixon, The Upside of Down


Ken Steele

www.academica.ca

Mohawk College 2010 PD Day

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