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Augmented Reality: the birth of a new medium or a new decade novelty?
1.
The AR Mass-Market
Opportunity: The Birth of a New Medium Claire Boonstra Matt Miesnieks Co-founder Business Development @claireboo @mattmiesnieks © 2010, Layar B.V.
2.
A story you’ve
heard before.... Mass adoption New medium New devices © 2010, Layar B.V.
3.
1994... MultiMedia PCs
Multimedia Devices © 2010, Layar B.V.
4.
1994... MultiMedia PCs
Devices with amazing new abilities launched into a market fed-up with text displays & a poor UI. • Graphical OSs • Audio • Video • CD-ROM • Dial Up Modem • New User Input Methods © 2010, Layar B.V.
5.
1995... Rich CD-Rom
Content Multimedia Rich Local Devices Content © 2010, Layar B.V.
6.
1995... Rich CD-Rom
Content • The content was: • Created especially for these devices • Locally Executed (on the device) • Everything from previous medium into one place • Store Bought • Excited Advertisers • Controlled Environment • Hyped by Apple as the saviour to the current Media Industry! • Print Medium & Business Model forced onto the PC © 2010, Layar B.V.
7.
1996... New Medium
Gains Traction New Medium Gains Traction Multimedia Rich Local Devices Content © 2010, Layar B.V.
8.
1996... New Medium
Gains Traction • Web: The New Medium for the Connected PC • First websites: • “BrochureWare” • Catalog based Discovery • Concerns (credit card security, poor multi-media, low bandwidth etc) • Crude layouts • Hobbyist playground, not businesses • Print Medium & Business Model forced onto the PC © 2010, Layar B.V.
9.
1996... Curated Eco-System
Curated Eco-System New Medium Gains Traction Multimedia Rich Local Devices Content © 2010, Layar B.V.
10.
1996... Curated Eco-System
Netscape curated the entire early web eco-system: • Browser • Publishing Servers • Portal • Content Discovery • Standards Development • Provided everything needed to experience the medium • Other competitive browsers © 2010, Layar B.V.
11.
1997... Massive Distribution
Massive Distribution Curated Eco-System New Medium Gains Traction Multimedia Rich Local Devices Content © 2010, Layar B.V.
12.
1997... Massive Distribution •
New way to sell more products • For Device Manufacturers & Network Providers • Windows PC’s with modems, dial-up access • Pre-Installed Browsers • Competitive Access Providers © 2010, Layar B.V.
13.
1998... Medium Specific
Content Medium Specific Content Massive Distribution Curated Eco-System New Medium Gains Traction Multimedia Rich Local Devices Content © 2010, Layar B.V.
14.
1998... Medium Specific
Content • Early Investment by Leading Developers • Emerging Understanding of Business Models • Leading content investors & learners are still the market leaders today • Medium allowed content which already existed to be experienced in entirely new ways • Microsoft Encarta vs Wikipedia © 2010, Layar B.V.
15.
1998... Mass Market
Adoption Mass Market Adoption Medium Specific Content Massive Distribution Curated Eco-System New Medium Gains Traction Multimedia Rich Local Devices Content © 2010, Layar B.V.
16.
A little bit
of history repeating.... Mass adoption New medium New devices © 2010, Layar B.V.
17.
2007... MultiMedia Phones Multimedia
Devices © 2010, Layar B.V.
18.
2007... MultiMedia Phones
• Amazing New Abilities • Create Content • Consume Content • Phones Launched with • Graphical OSs • Audio • Video • Externally loaded content • New User Input Methods © 2010, Layar B.V.
19.
2008... Rich App
Content Multimedia Rich Local Devices Content © 2010, Layar B.V.
20.
2008... Rich App
Content • Locally Executed • Store Bought • Excited Advertisers • Controlled Environment • Hyped by Apple! • We developed new types of Content • Web Content Business Models forced onto the Phone © 2010, Layar B.V.
21.
2009... New Medium
Gains Traction New Medium Gains Traction Multimedia Rich Local Devices Content © 2010, Layar B.V.
22.
2009... New Medium
Gains Traction • First AR content: “BrochureWare” • Upload static POI databases into AR • “Where Is?” services • Catalog based Discovery • Mobile AR: the MOBILE Medium • not an App or a technology • needs a Mobile to work. • only medium that uses every capability of phone © 2010, Layar B.V.
23.
2010... Curated Eco-System
Curated Eco-System New Medium Gains Traction Multimedia Rich Local Devices Content © 2010, Layar B.V.
24.
2010... Curated Eco-System
• Browser • Publishing Servers • Portal • Content Discovery • Standards Development • Leading companies provided everything that users and companies needed to experience the medium • Lots of competition in the browser space © 2010, Layar B.V.
25.
2010... Massive Distribution
Massive Distribution Massive Distribution Curated Eco-System New Medium Gains Traction Multimedia Rich Local Devices Content © 2010, Layar B.V.
26.
2010... Massive Distribution
• Pre-Installed Browsers • Competitive Access Providers • 2009 Layar installed on about 10% of ARphones via AppStore only, no marketing • 2010 Layar Adoption by Distribution partners • Samsung Global • LG • Verizon • Sprint • many more to be announced © 2010, Layar B.V.
27.
Massive Distribution Growth
• AR-capable phone growth • 10m in 2009 • 180m in 2010 • 400m in 2011 • 1.3B by 2013 Source: Gartner, Macquarie © 2010, Layar B.V.
28.
Right Now! Medium
Specific Content Medium Specific Content Massive Distribution Curated Eco-System New Medium Gains Traction Multimedia Rich Local Devices Content © 2010, Layar B.V.
29.
Buildings you can’t
see (yet) Layer developed by NAi/ IN10 © 2010, Layar B.V.
30.
Beatles Magical AR
tour © 2010, Layar B.V. Layer developed by AugmentReality
31.
Virtual Public Art
Project Layer developed by Superimpose/ VPAP © 2010, Layar B.V.
32.
Ubisoft’s Splintercell
© 2010, Layar B.V.
33.
AR flashmob
© 2010, Layar B.V.
34.
Medium Specific Content •
Early Investment by Leading Developers • Emerging Understanding of Business Models • Developing services -> developing Experiences • Learning & ongoing development • Developer community • Promoting & curating what is working • Payment platforms • Richer AR modelling • More interaction, sharing & engagement • Analytics & reporting • Technology consolidation © 2010, Layar B.V.
35.
How Soon?... Mass
Market Adoption Mass Market Adoption Medium Specific Content Massive Distribution Curated Eco-System New Medium Gains Traction Multimedia Rich Local Devices Content © 2010, Layar B.V.
36.
Mass Market Adoption? •
AR poised to breakout • Everything is in place • Now is the time to start developing - invest Marketing R&D into the Layar platform • Early Web Content leaders are now worth more than the Early Web Platform providers! © 2010, Layar B.V.
37.
Worlds Largest AR
Community 500+ Layers Published 2000+ Layers in Testing 3000 Developers 1.6m+ Users #1 in Every Market except Japan (#2) © 2010, Layar B.V.
38.
And remember... By the
end of 1993, there were 623 websites By mid-1994 there were 2738 by the end of the year, more than 10,000 according to a study by MIT Researcher Matthew Gray © 2010, Layar B.V.
39.
Healthy Ecosystem Layer developers
are today: making money getting funded hiring people advertising their business building new businesses © 2010, Layar B.V.
40.
To get involved layar.com/create
© 2010, Layar B.V.
41.
Save the date: June
18th, 2010 Amsterdam Layar NEXT event © 2010, Layar B.V.
42.
Q&A Thank You claire@layar.com twitter:
@claireboo Background image: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kayveeinc/3900795843/ © 2010, Layar B.V.