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McKinsey & Company 1
A majority of respondents in Indonesia expect to recover lost income
and savings from the lockdown within the year.
By December, I will likely have recovered any income or savings that I lost during the lockdown.
% of respondents
17%
16%
18%
21%
44%
46%
53%
46%
18%
22%
16%
23%
11%
9%
4%
2%
6%
6%
4%
Middle class
Lower income
3%
2%
4%
6%
Upper middle-class
2%
Upper income
Strongly agree Agree DisagreeSomewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
18% 48% 20% 7% 3% 4%Total
By income segment
21%
17%
15%
44%
52%
49%
21%
20%
19%
7%
9%
3%
Bandung, Surabaya,
Medan
4%
4%
4%
6%
2%
Jabodetabek/
Greater Jakarta
3%
Rest of Indonesia
By region
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 1,235, sampled to match consuming population
McKinsey & Company 2
New declared intent1
Apparel,
footwear,
and
accessories
Personal
care and
wellness
Home
Vehicle
1. Two questions were asked 1) Of the items you were thinking of buying, which ones did you buy in the last 3 months? 2) Which statement best describes your plan for the items you were planning to buy but haven’t yet?
2. Q: Thinking back to January 2020 (before COVID-19 happened), what were the items you were thinking of buying for yourself in the next 6 months to 1 year?
Personal
electronics
56%
40%
34%
51%
53%
32%
32%
33%
29%
73%
69%
46%
30%
34%
45%
29%
36%
45%
29%
31%
26%
20%
23%
31%
14%
25%
21%
20%
23%
39%
36%
45%
23%
11%
7%
8%
38%
35%
48%
32%
41%
32%
41%
26%
24%
17%
33%
29%
28%
30%
31%
30%
27%
24%
22%
22%
29%
36%
24%
38%
28%
38%
32%
49%
53%
61%
Bought in past 3 months Still plan to buy within the year Purchase cancelled or indefinitely postponed
Casual wear 42%
Fashion / trendy clothes 43%
Footwear 31%
Watches 26%
Jewelry 25%
Sportswear / athleisure 20%
Professional clothes for office 19%
Sunglasses 8%
Luxury brand handbags 7%
Skincare 36%
Make-up 32%
Sports/ fitness equipment 11%
Mobile phone 57%
Personal electronics except
mobile phone
41%
Small domestic appliances 38%
Large domestic appliances 38%
DIY materials/ tools for home
improvement projects
37%
Furniture 35%
Home décor 33%
Home construction /
renovation
26%
Motorcycles 26%
Cars 19%
XX% % with initial purchase intent2
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 4/28-5/10/2020 N = 1,235, sampled to match consuming population
Despite the optimism, many respondents report that they are
foregoing purchases in a variety of categories.
Certain bigger-ticket items such as jewelry, watches, luxury handbags, motorcycles, and cars are often cited
McKinsey & Company 3
This document
reflects results in the
Indonesia market
for two categories,
mobile phones and
apparel.
McKinsey & Company 33
Mobile Phones
.
Apparel
McKinsey & Company 4
About 1 in 5 respondents with pre-COVID-19 purchase intent say they
plan to indefinitely postpone or forego apparel purchases.
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 1,235, sampled to match consuming population
1. Q: Of the items you were thinking of buying, which ones did you buy in the last 3 months?
2. Q: Which statement best describes your plan of the items you were planning to buy but haven’t yet? (Will buy in next 3 months/ Will buy in next 3-8 months/ Postponed indefinitely/ Will not buy it anymore even though I still want it/ Will not
buy, I’m not sure I want this anymore)
3. Q: Which statement best describes your purchase/ planned purchase? (Bought the same item/ brand as planned/ Spent less or bought a cheaper item/ brand instead/ Spent more than planned or bought a more expensive item/ brand
instead)
4. Consumers who have not purchased any apparel in the past 3 months
100
9 33
8
19
7
21 3 32
49
All respondents
Bought in past 3 months1,3
Still plan to buy this year2,3,4
Will forego purchase2
Spent/intend to spend more than planned
Spent/intend to spend same as planned
Spent/intend to spend less than planned
Current declared purchase behavior/intent for apparel,1Category highlights
19%
of consumers with pre-COVID-19
purchase intent who say they
have indefinitely postponed or
cancelled purchases for the year
82%
of respondents who made
apparel purchases (i.e.,
“buyers”) say they spent equal
to or more than planned
-14%
Net intent among those who say
they have not yet made apparel
purchases, but plan to do so
% of respondents with pre-COVID-19 purchase intent
1 in 5
respondents who plan to
purchase (i.e., “planners”) say
they are looking to spend less
or trade down
Potentially higher trade-down intent among those who have not yet purchased apparel but plan to do so within the year
McKinsey & Company 5
Responses suggest occasion-based apparel categories such as
swimwear and formalwear are more likely to be affected.
Upper-income respondents are less likely to forego sports/athleisure and sleep/loungewear purchases
Share of respondents with pre-COVID-19 purchase intent who will indefinitely postpone or cancel purchase,1,2 %
1. Q: Which of the following types of clothing were you planning to buy? Select all that apply Q: Which of the following types of clothes did you buy? Select all that apply Q: You answered that you plan to buy clothes in the next 3 to
8 months. Which of the following types of clothes do you still plan to purchase?
2. % foregone by category computed by those who selected it among the items planned on buying and did not select it among items bought / planned to buy
3. Consideration rate generally higher by 10-15pp for higher income respondents, except for casual wear and sleepwear
4. Incidence rate too low to capture adequate respondent size for the segment
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
42
41
25
24
21
20
19
17
Fashion/ trendy clothes
Sportswear/ athleisure
Business/ professional wear
Sleep/ loungewear
Traditional wear (batik)
Swimwear
Casual wear (basics)
Special occasion clothes
(e.g. party dress, gown, suit)
5%
30%
27%
56%
28%
22%
22%
76%
37
22
20
N/A4
N/A4
N/A4
N/A4
N/A4
39
29
24
27
19
17
15
N/A4
51
20
24
13
19
19
13
N/A4
38
29
25
15
27
8
19
N/A4
Considera-
tion rate3 Total Lower-income
Upper-middle
incomeMiddle-income Upper-income
McKinsey & Company 6
20%
1%
1%
5%
45% 11%18%
I look forward to going back to physical
stores to shop for clothes once restrictions
loosen
6%
11%25%42%16%
Because of COVID-19, I have become
more price sensitive and might change
or cut down on my budget for new clothes
Somewhat agreeStrongly agree Agree Somewhat disagree Disagree Strongly disagree
Percent of respondents
Although a majority of respondents say they look forward to
revisiting physical stores when restrictions loosen, there may be a
higher degree of price sensitivity in the short term.
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
McKinsey & Company 7
Regarding longer-term intent, the results suggest higher-spending
shoppers plan to spend more post-COVID-19 than before the crisis.
Estimated monthly spending on
apparel,1
% of respondents
1. Q: Before COVID-19, how much do you spend on clothing items in total in a normal month?
2. Q: Thinking ahead, do you think you will spend more, less, or the same on clothing after the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before?
3. Balance per segment answered “no change”
4. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents who intend to reduce their apparel spend post COVID-19 from respondents who intend to increase apparel spend
Reported spend intention post-COVID-19, compared with before,2
% of respondents3
8%
9%
18%
59%
6%
IDR 750K - 1.49Mn
<IDR 150K
IDR 1.5Mn - 2.49Mn
IDR 150K - 749K
IDR 2.5Mn and up
Will spend less Will spend more
-30 16
-20 24
-13 36
-13 44
-9 49
Net Intent4
-14%
+4%
+22%
+31%
+40%
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
McKinsey & Company 8
Among respondents who plan to spend less or forego purchases, half
cite uncertainty of COVID-19’s impact on their incomes as the reason.
Reason cited planning to spend less or trade down,1
% of respondents
49%
17%
12%
10%
7%
2%
I felt guilty to spend a lot given
the serious impact of COVID-19 on society
I wanted to save money because of
the impact of COVID-19 on my income
I lost interest in some items I originally planned
to buy
I have to spend money on other things
I have other things on my mind and this is
not a priority
I expect my lifestyle to change (e.g. will stay
home more)
1. Q: Which statement best describes the reason for spending less on your clothing?
2. Q: What made you decide not to buy clothing anymore? Please select the statement that best describes the reason
Economic reasons
Reason cited for indefinitely postponing or cancelling
purchases,2 % of respondents
49%
17%
11%
10%
10%
2%
I have to spend money on other things
I have other things on my mind and this is not
a priority
My lifestyle has changed (e.g., will stay home
more, etc.)
I want to save money because I’m worried
about the effect of COVID-19 on my income
It does not feel right/ I felt guilty to spend
given the serious impact of COVID-19 on society
I have less time to browse because of the crisis
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
~1 in 5 of those planning to forego a purchase cited expected lifestyle changes
McKinsey & Company 9
Respondents who are spending less appear to be less brand loyal,
with 43 percent saying they intend to switch to a cheaper brand.
1. Q: You answered previously that you still bought clothing, but spent less than planned. Which statement best describes your purchase? (Represents 18% of those who have purchased apparel in the past 3 months)
2. Q: You answered previously that you still will buy clothes, but will spend less than planned. Which statement best describes your purchase? (Represents 24% of those who plan to purchase apparel later within the year)
+29pp.
increase in intent among
those trading down to
switch to a cheaper brand
for future purchases11% 11%
14%
43%
23%
11%
52%
34%
Same brand, same items with discount
or promo
Respondents who
have purchased
in past 3 months1
(18% of buyers)
Respondents who
intend to purchase
later this year2
(24% of planners)
Will buy something different instead
Same brand, cheaper items
Change to a cheaper brand
45%
of those planning to trade
down want to stay with the
same brand
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
Intention for consumers who have traded down or plan to trade down their purchase,1,2
% of respondents
McKinsey & Company 10
Among those planning to buy apparel in the coming months,
responses suggest department stores remain the preferred channel.
1. Q: Where do you typically shop for clothes? Select all that apply 2. Q: Where did you buy your clothes from? If you bought more than one, please select all that apply.
3. Q: Where will you likely buy most of these clothes? (Single select)
Planners,3
% of respondents
31%
25%
9%
4%
1%
2%
1%
Multi-brand department stores
E-commerce platform most preferred by respondents
Markets or bazaars
Social media sites (e.g. Facebook marketplace)
Multi-brand sporting goods stores (e.g. Athlete’s Foot)
Official brand website
Local tailor shops
Main channels used
pre-COVID-19,1
% of respondents
62%
47%
24%
17%
12%
11%
6%
Buyers,2
% of respondents
52%
53%
19%
17%
11%
14%
5%
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
Online websitePhysical store
9%Single-brand physical stores 35% 33%
17%Other e-commerce platforms (combined)
Respondents who chose at least one other e-commerce site
48% 54%
McKinsey & Company 11
Those planning to buy apparel later this year say perception of quality
and convenience are key decision factors for where to shop.
59%
39%
29%
21%
20%
19%
16%
13%
11%
10%
Good quality of clothing sold
Cheapest prices
Up-to-date with fashion trends
Convenience
Product availability
Promotional offers
Product assortment
Location of physical stores
Guidance in choosing the right fit/size
Great-in-store or browsing experience
Importance of key channel attributes for consumers who plan to buy apparel later this year,1
% of respondents (N=140)
Difference from
pre-COVID-192
+29%
+20%
-11%
+8%
-13%
-8%
-9%
+6%
+1%
Promotions remain within the top 3 factors, but with less stated importance
0%
1. Q: Which factors will be most important when you decide where to buy these clothes from?
2. Q: What are the main factor(s) that make you choose to shop in these stores/ online sites?
Difference is calculated by subtracting percentage of respondents selecting the factor for Jan purchase from percentage of respondents selecting the factor for future purchase
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
McKinsey & Company 12
In the longer term, responses suggest physical retailers could face
increased competition from the preferred online platform.
Expected change in consumer preference of channel for purchase,1
% of respondents who use the channel
Net increase in
channel preference2
39%
27%
25%
25%
23%
20%
19%
13%
10%
36%
40%
42%
41%
44%
43%
44%
45%
49%
22%
27%
28%
29%
29%
31%
31%
35%
32%
5%
5%
5%
4%
6%
6%
7%
9%
Markets or bazaars
Social media platforms
E-commerce platform most preferred
by respondents
3%
Multi-brand department stores
Official brand website
Single-brand stores
Other e-commerce platforms
Multi-brand sporting goods stores
Tailor shops
Will use this channel more Will use this channel less
Will not change Will stop using this channel
1. Q: How do you think your shopping preference for clothes in the following channels will change after COVID-19 compared to before?
2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting % of using less and discontinue use from using more
Online websitePhysical store
+14%
-5%
-8%
-9%
-10%
-17%
-17%
-29%
-31%
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
Leading channel
pre-COVID-19
McKinsey & Company 13
‘Touch and feel’ factors are the most commonly cited barriers to
online shopping for apparel.
1.Q: What are the main factors that prevent you from buying clothes ONLINE instead? Select up to 3
2.Q: You indicated that you will likely buy your next clothes from an ONLINE channel. Regarding the online shopping experience, which of the following features are most important to you? Please select up to 3
Barriers to buying online for respondents
who prefer physical stores,1
% of respondents
Reasons for buying online for respondents
who prefer online,2
% of respondents
66
52
31
20
20
14
13
11
10
8
7
6
Distrust online products
Concern about data safety
Shipping costs
Difficulty choosing the right size/fit
Difficulty using website/mobile application
Preference for seeing and trying products
Inconvenient return process
Uncertainty about delivery time and process
Long delivery times
Limited personal real-time assistance
Concern about safety of delivery
Sustainability issues
Lack of inspirational fashion content 0
42
38
29
26
23
23
17
16
16
10
10
9
9
Multiple payment options
Free delivery
Wide assortment of products
Fast delivery
Easy to compare products
Ability to buy from multiple brands in one order
Free return
Health & safety policies
Guidance to choose the right size/fit
Convenient return
Prolonged payment options
Ability to combine multiple orders into one shipment
Clear delivery information
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
McKinsey & Company 14
This document
reflects results in the
Indonesia market
for two categories:
mobile phones and
apparel.
McKinsey & Company 1414
Mobile Phones
.
Apparel
McKinsey & Company 15
About 30 percent of consumers with intent to purchase mobile phones
say they will indefinitely postpone their purchases.
A small share say they are looking to trade down in this category
1. Q: Of the items you were thinking of buying, which ones did you buy in the last 3 months?
2. Q: Which statement best describes your plan of the items you were planning to buy but haven’t yet? (Will buy in next 3 months/ Will buy in next 6-8 months/ Postponed indefinitely/ Will not buy it anymore even though I still want it/ Will not buy,
I’m not sure I want this anymore)
3. Q: Which statement best describes your purchase/ planned purchase? (Bought the same item/ brand as planned/ Spent less or bought a cheaper item/ brand instead/ Spent more than planned or bought a more expensive item/ brand instead)
Current declared purchase behavior/intent for mobile phones1
% of respondents with pre-COVID-19 purchase intent
71%
of consumers with pre-COVID-19
purchase intent say they have either
bought a phone, or still plan to do so
within the year
87%
of buyers say they spent equal to or
more than planned pre-COVID-19
10%
of respondents who say they are
planning to buy a phone later this
year are looking to trade down or
spend less
Category highlights
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 1,235, sampled to match consuming population
100
5 27
3
29
6
23 7
All respondents
Bought in past 3 months1,3
Still plan to buy this year2,3,4
38
Will forego purchase2
33
Spent/intend to spend less than planned
Spent/intend to spend same as planned
Spent/intend to spend more than planned
McKinsey & Company 16
Uncertainty of income was the most commonly cited reason for
foregoing a planned mobile phone purchase.
58%
13%
12%
9%
2%
4%
I don’t want to leave my house, and don’t want
to shop online
It does not feel right/ I feel guilty to spend given
the serious impact of COVID-19 on society
I want to save money because I’m worried
about the effect of COVID-19 on my income
I have other things on my mind and this is
not a priority
I have to spend money on other things
I could not find anything I liked, either online or
in physical stores
Reason for planning to indefinitely postpone or cancel mobile phone purchase,1
% of respondents
1. Q: You mentioned you have dropped the plan of purchasing a mobile phone. Which statement best describes the reason for it?
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 575 for mobile phone deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
McKinsey & Company 17
Among the minority of respondents who traded down or plan to do
so, 78 percent express desire to stay with their preferred brand.
1. Q: You answered previously that you still bought a cellphone, but spent less than planned. Which statement best describes your purchase? (Represents 12% of those who purchases a mobile phone in the past 3 months)
2. Q: You answered previously that you still intend to buy a cellphone, but will spend less. Which statement best describes your future purchase? (Represents 10% of those who plan to purchase a mobile phone later within the year)
11%
11%
23%
55%
Cheaper brand
Respondents who have
purchased or intend to
purchase a mobile phone
Same brand, same model
but with a discount or
promotion
Same brand,
cheaper model
Will buy used instead
Respondents generally
intend to stick to the same
brand as they had planned,
with more than half looking
for a discount or promotion
for their preferred model
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 575 for mobile phone deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
Intention for
consumers who have
traded down or plan
to trade down their
purchase,1,2
% of respondents
McKinsey & Company 18
In the shorter term, those planning to buy a phone most often say they
expect to purchase from online marketplaces or exclusive brand stores.
Physical multi-brand chains and local stores are cited less often
Channel used or
intended for
purchase,1
% of respondents
1. Q: Where did you buy your prior phone? Q: For the phone you bought, which kind of store did you buy it from? Q: For your planned phone purchase, which kind of store will you buy it from?
Exclusive brand outlet or pop-up
Online marketplace with multiple brands
Physical multi-brand mobile phone store
Streetside/ independent unnamed shops
Brand official website
Mobile operator physical store
Online website of electronics stores
Online website
Physical store
Prior channel used
4% 5%
4%
7% 5%
5%
5%
10%
5%
6%
20% 17%
17%
23%
33%
30%
29%
22%
33%
2%
2%
Buyers Planners
3%
3%
3%
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 575 for mobile phone deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
Physical multi-brand electronics store
McKinsey & Company 19
Longer term, responses suggest online channels’ traffic,
particularly marketplaces, could continue to accelerate.
Expected change in consumer channel
preference,1
% of respondents who use each channel
1. Q: How do you think your shopping preference for cellphones will change in the following channels after COVID-19 compared to before?
Up to 18%
of respondents
say they expect to
stop purchasing
phones at
physical stores
Online website
Physical store
50%
34%
34%
31%
26%
23%
19%
18%
14%
24%
36%
33%
35%
42%
37%
41%
39%
35%
24%
28%
28%
32%
28%
34%
33%
34%
34%
2%
2%
5%
3%
6%
8%
9%
18%
Mobile operator physical store
Brand official website
Online marketplace with multiple brands
Social media channel
Online website of electronics store
4%Single brand physical store or pop-up store
Physical store carrying many brands
Physical electronics store
Street-side/ independent unnamed shops
Will use this channel more Will use this channel less
No change in using this channel Will discontinue using this channel
Net increase in channel
preference2
+24%
+3%
+1%
-3%
-6%
-17%
-22%
-25%
-38%
The responses
suggest online
channels are likely
to gain
~37%
additional purchase
traffic switching from
physical stores
Leading channel pre-
COVID-19
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 575 for mobile phone deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
McKinsey & Company 20
‘Touch and feel’ experience and concern about the safety of
deliveries are the most commonly cited barriers to online adoption.
1.Q: What are the top 3 factors preventing you from buying your future cellphone ONLINE?
2.Q: What are the top 3 reasons driving you to buy your future cellphone in ONLINE channels?
49%
43%
25%
20%
17%
16%
15%
13%
12%
12%
Concern about data safety in website / mobile app
Unclear return policy
I like seeing and testing before buying
Limited technical support
Concern about safety of delivery
Uncertainty about delivery times and process
Shipping costs
Inconvenient return process
Limited product personalization
Limited payment options
34%
34%
32%
28%
22%
18%
18%
12%
11%
11%
Access to all product information
Multiple payment options
Convenience
Promotion/ Discount
Better price
Free delivery
Fast delivery
Wide assortment of products
Reliable customer service
Live support on the site to answer my questions
Barriers to buying online for respondents
who prefer physical stores,1
% of respondents
Reasons for buying online for respondents
who prefer online,2
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 575 for mobile phone deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
McKinsey & Company 21
Disclaimer
McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or
guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight and best practice
based on information currently available and do not contain all of the
information needed to determine a future course of action. Such
information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey
and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no
obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or
warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.

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Survey results: Consumer discretionary spending in Indonesia

  • 1. McKinsey & Company 1 A majority of respondents in Indonesia expect to recover lost income and savings from the lockdown within the year. By December, I will likely have recovered any income or savings that I lost during the lockdown. % of respondents 17% 16% 18% 21% 44% 46% 53% 46% 18% 22% 16% 23% 11% 9% 4% 2% 6% 6% 4% Middle class Lower income 3% 2% 4% 6% Upper middle-class 2% Upper income Strongly agree Agree DisagreeSomewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree 18% 48% 20% 7% 3% 4%Total By income segment 21% 17% 15% 44% 52% 49% 21% 20% 19% 7% 9% 3% Bandung, Surabaya, Medan 4% 4% 4% 6% 2% Jabodetabek/ Greater Jakarta 3% Rest of Indonesia By region Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 1,235, sampled to match consuming population
  • 2. McKinsey & Company 2 New declared intent1 Apparel, footwear, and accessories Personal care and wellness Home Vehicle 1. Two questions were asked 1) Of the items you were thinking of buying, which ones did you buy in the last 3 months? 2) Which statement best describes your plan for the items you were planning to buy but haven’t yet? 2. Q: Thinking back to January 2020 (before COVID-19 happened), what were the items you were thinking of buying for yourself in the next 6 months to 1 year? Personal electronics 56% 40% 34% 51% 53% 32% 32% 33% 29% 73% 69% 46% 30% 34% 45% 29% 36% 45% 29% 31% 26% 20% 23% 31% 14% 25% 21% 20% 23% 39% 36% 45% 23% 11% 7% 8% 38% 35% 48% 32% 41% 32% 41% 26% 24% 17% 33% 29% 28% 30% 31% 30% 27% 24% 22% 22% 29% 36% 24% 38% 28% 38% 32% 49% 53% 61% Bought in past 3 months Still plan to buy within the year Purchase cancelled or indefinitely postponed Casual wear 42% Fashion / trendy clothes 43% Footwear 31% Watches 26% Jewelry 25% Sportswear / athleisure 20% Professional clothes for office 19% Sunglasses 8% Luxury brand handbags 7% Skincare 36% Make-up 32% Sports/ fitness equipment 11% Mobile phone 57% Personal electronics except mobile phone 41% Small domestic appliances 38% Large domestic appliances 38% DIY materials/ tools for home improvement projects 37% Furniture 35% Home décor 33% Home construction / renovation 26% Motorcycles 26% Cars 19% XX% % with initial purchase intent2 Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 4/28-5/10/2020 N = 1,235, sampled to match consuming population Despite the optimism, many respondents report that they are foregoing purchases in a variety of categories. Certain bigger-ticket items such as jewelry, watches, luxury handbags, motorcycles, and cars are often cited
  • 3. McKinsey & Company 3 This document reflects results in the Indonesia market for two categories, mobile phones and apparel. McKinsey & Company 33 Mobile Phones . Apparel
  • 4. McKinsey & Company 4 About 1 in 5 respondents with pre-COVID-19 purchase intent say they plan to indefinitely postpone or forego apparel purchases. Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 1,235, sampled to match consuming population 1. Q: Of the items you were thinking of buying, which ones did you buy in the last 3 months? 2. Q: Which statement best describes your plan of the items you were planning to buy but haven’t yet? (Will buy in next 3 months/ Will buy in next 3-8 months/ Postponed indefinitely/ Will not buy it anymore even though I still want it/ Will not buy, I’m not sure I want this anymore) 3. Q: Which statement best describes your purchase/ planned purchase? (Bought the same item/ brand as planned/ Spent less or bought a cheaper item/ brand instead/ Spent more than planned or bought a more expensive item/ brand instead) 4. Consumers who have not purchased any apparel in the past 3 months 100 9 33 8 19 7 21 3 32 49 All respondents Bought in past 3 months1,3 Still plan to buy this year2,3,4 Will forego purchase2 Spent/intend to spend more than planned Spent/intend to spend same as planned Spent/intend to spend less than planned Current declared purchase behavior/intent for apparel,1Category highlights 19% of consumers with pre-COVID-19 purchase intent who say they have indefinitely postponed or cancelled purchases for the year 82% of respondents who made apparel purchases (i.e., “buyers”) say they spent equal to or more than planned -14% Net intent among those who say they have not yet made apparel purchases, but plan to do so % of respondents with pre-COVID-19 purchase intent 1 in 5 respondents who plan to purchase (i.e., “planners”) say they are looking to spend less or trade down Potentially higher trade-down intent among those who have not yet purchased apparel but plan to do so within the year
  • 5. McKinsey & Company 5 Responses suggest occasion-based apparel categories such as swimwear and formalwear are more likely to be affected. Upper-income respondents are less likely to forego sports/athleisure and sleep/loungewear purchases Share of respondents with pre-COVID-19 purchase intent who will indefinitely postpone or cancel purchase,1,2 % 1. Q: Which of the following types of clothing were you planning to buy? Select all that apply Q: Which of the following types of clothes did you buy? Select all that apply Q: You answered that you plan to buy clothes in the next 3 to 8 months. Which of the following types of clothes do you still plan to purchase? 2. % foregone by category computed by those who selected it among the items planned on buying and did not select it among items bought / planned to buy 3. Consideration rate generally higher by 10-15pp for higher income respondents, except for casual wear and sleepwear 4. Incidence rate too low to capture adequate respondent size for the segment Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population 42 41 25 24 21 20 19 17 Fashion/ trendy clothes Sportswear/ athleisure Business/ professional wear Sleep/ loungewear Traditional wear (batik) Swimwear Casual wear (basics) Special occasion clothes (e.g. party dress, gown, suit) 5% 30% 27% 56% 28% 22% 22% 76% 37 22 20 N/A4 N/A4 N/A4 N/A4 N/A4 39 29 24 27 19 17 15 N/A4 51 20 24 13 19 19 13 N/A4 38 29 25 15 27 8 19 N/A4 Considera- tion rate3 Total Lower-income Upper-middle incomeMiddle-income Upper-income
  • 6. McKinsey & Company 6 20% 1% 1% 5% 45% 11%18% I look forward to going back to physical stores to shop for clothes once restrictions loosen 6% 11%25%42%16% Because of COVID-19, I have become more price sensitive and might change or cut down on my budget for new clothes Somewhat agreeStrongly agree Agree Somewhat disagree Disagree Strongly disagree Percent of respondents Although a majority of respondents say they look forward to revisiting physical stores when restrictions loosen, there may be a higher degree of price sensitivity in the short term. Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
  • 7. McKinsey & Company 7 Regarding longer-term intent, the results suggest higher-spending shoppers plan to spend more post-COVID-19 than before the crisis. Estimated monthly spending on apparel,1 % of respondents 1. Q: Before COVID-19, how much do you spend on clothing items in total in a normal month? 2. Q: Thinking ahead, do you think you will spend more, less, or the same on clothing after the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before? 3. Balance per segment answered “no change” 4. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents who intend to reduce their apparel spend post COVID-19 from respondents who intend to increase apparel spend Reported spend intention post-COVID-19, compared with before,2 % of respondents3 8% 9% 18% 59% 6% IDR 750K - 1.49Mn <IDR 150K IDR 1.5Mn - 2.49Mn IDR 150K - 749K IDR 2.5Mn and up Will spend less Will spend more -30 16 -20 24 -13 36 -13 44 -9 49 Net Intent4 -14% +4% +22% +31% +40% Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
  • 8. McKinsey & Company 8 Among respondents who plan to spend less or forego purchases, half cite uncertainty of COVID-19’s impact on their incomes as the reason. Reason cited planning to spend less or trade down,1 % of respondents 49% 17% 12% 10% 7% 2% I felt guilty to spend a lot given the serious impact of COVID-19 on society I wanted to save money because of the impact of COVID-19 on my income I lost interest in some items I originally planned to buy I have to spend money on other things I have other things on my mind and this is not a priority I expect my lifestyle to change (e.g. will stay home more) 1. Q: Which statement best describes the reason for spending less on your clothing? 2. Q: What made you decide not to buy clothing anymore? Please select the statement that best describes the reason Economic reasons Reason cited for indefinitely postponing or cancelling purchases,2 % of respondents 49% 17% 11% 10% 10% 2% I have to spend money on other things I have other things on my mind and this is not a priority My lifestyle has changed (e.g., will stay home more, etc.) I want to save money because I’m worried about the effect of COVID-19 on my income It does not feel right/ I felt guilty to spend given the serious impact of COVID-19 on society I have less time to browse because of the crisis Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population ~1 in 5 of those planning to forego a purchase cited expected lifestyle changes
  • 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Respondents who are spending less appear to be less brand loyal, with 43 percent saying they intend to switch to a cheaper brand. 1. Q: You answered previously that you still bought clothing, but spent less than planned. Which statement best describes your purchase? (Represents 18% of those who have purchased apparel in the past 3 months) 2. Q: You answered previously that you still will buy clothes, but will spend less than planned. Which statement best describes your purchase? (Represents 24% of those who plan to purchase apparel later within the year) +29pp. increase in intent among those trading down to switch to a cheaper brand for future purchases11% 11% 14% 43% 23% 11% 52% 34% Same brand, same items with discount or promo Respondents who have purchased in past 3 months1 (18% of buyers) Respondents who intend to purchase later this year2 (24% of planners) Will buy something different instead Same brand, cheaper items Change to a cheaper brand 45% of those planning to trade down want to stay with the same brand Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population Intention for consumers who have traded down or plan to trade down their purchase,1,2 % of respondents
  • 10. McKinsey & Company 10 Among those planning to buy apparel in the coming months, responses suggest department stores remain the preferred channel. 1. Q: Where do you typically shop for clothes? Select all that apply 2. Q: Where did you buy your clothes from? If you bought more than one, please select all that apply. 3. Q: Where will you likely buy most of these clothes? (Single select) Planners,3 % of respondents 31% 25% 9% 4% 1% 2% 1% Multi-brand department stores E-commerce platform most preferred by respondents Markets or bazaars Social media sites (e.g. Facebook marketplace) Multi-brand sporting goods stores (e.g. Athlete’s Foot) Official brand website Local tailor shops Main channels used pre-COVID-19,1 % of respondents 62% 47% 24% 17% 12% 11% 6% Buyers,2 % of respondents 52% 53% 19% 17% 11% 14% 5% Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population Online websitePhysical store 9%Single-brand physical stores 35% 33% 17%Other e-commerce platforms (combined) Respondents who chose at least one other e-commerce site 48% 54%
  • 11. McKinsey & Company 11 Those planning to buy apparel later this year say perception of quality and convenience are key decision factors for where to shop. 59% 39% 29% 21% 20% 19% 16% 13% 11% 10% Good quality of clothing sold Cheapest prices Up-to-date with fashion trends Convenience Product availability Promotional offers Product assortment Location of physical stores Guidance in choosing the right fit/size Great-in-store or browsing experience Importance of key channel attributes for consumers who plan to buy apparel later this year,1 % of respondents (N=140) Difference from pre-COVID-192 +29% +20% -11% +8% -13% -8% -9% +6% +1% Promotions remain within the top 3 factors, but with less stated importance 0% 1. Q: Which factors will be most important when you decide where to buy these clothes from? 2. Q: What are the main factor(s) that make you choose to shop in these stores/ online sites? Difference is calculated by subtracting percentage of respondents selecting the factor for Jan purchase from percentage of respondents selecting the factor for future purchase Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
  • 12. McKinsey & Company 12 In the longer term, responses suggest physical retailers could face increased competition from the preferred online platform. Expected change in consumer preference of channel for purchase,1 % of respondents who use the channel Net increase in channel preference2 39% 27% 25% 25% 23% 20% 19% 13% 10% 36% 40% 42% 41% 44% 43% 44% 45% 49% 22% 27% 28% 29% 29% 31% 31% 35% 32% 5% 5% 5% 4% 6% 6% 7% 9% Markets or bazaars Social media platforms E-commerce platform most preferred by respondents 3% Multi-brand department stores Official brand website Single-brand stores Other e-commerce platforms Multi-brand sporting goods stores Tailor shops Will use this channel more Will use this channel less Will not change Will stop using this channel 1. Q: How do you think your shopping preference for clothes in the following channels will change after COVID-19 compared to before? 2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting % of using less and discontinue use from using more Online websitePhysical store +14% -5% -8% -9% -10% -17% -17% -29% -31% Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population Leading channel pre-COVID-19
  • 13. McKinsey & Company 13 ‘Touch and feel’ factors are the most commonly cited barriers to online shopping for apparel. 1.Q: What are the main factors that prevent you from buying clothes ONLINE instead? Select up to 3 2.Q: You indicated that you will likely buy your next clothes from an ONLINE channel. Regarding the online shopping experience, which of the following features are most important to you? Please select up to 3 Barriers to buying online for respondents who prefer physical stores,1 % of respondents Reasons for buying online for respondents who prefer online,2 % of respondents 66 52 31 20 20 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 Distrust online products Concern about data safety Shipping costs Difficulty choosing the right size/fit Difficulty using website/mobile application Preference for seeing and trying products Inconvenient return process Uncertainty about delivery time and process Long delivery times Limited personal real-time assistance Concern about safety of delivery Sustainability issues Lack of inspirational fashion content 0 42 38 29 26 23 23 17 16 16 10 10 9 9 Multiple payment options Free delivery Wide assortment of products Fast delivery Easy to compare products Ability to buy from multiple brands in one order Free return Health & safety policies Guidance to choose the right size/fit Convenient return Prolonged payment options Ability to combine multiple orders into one shipment Clear delivery information Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 581 for apparel deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
  • 14. McKinsey & Company 14 This document reflects results in the Indonesia market for two categories: mobile phones and apparel. McKinsey & Company 1414 Mobile Phones . Apparel
  • 15. McKinsey & Company 15 About 30 percent of consumers with intent to purchase mobile phones say they will indefinitely postpone their purchases. A small share say they are looking to trade down in this category 1. Q: Of the items you were thinking of buying, which ones did you buy in the last 3 months? 2. Q: Which statement best describes your plan of the items you were planning to buy but haven’t yet? (Will buy in next 3 months/ Will buy in next 6-8 months/ Postponed indefinitely/ Will not buy it anymore even though I still want it/ Will not buy, I’m not sure I want this anymore) 3. Q: Which statement best describes your purchase/ planned purchase? (Bought the same item/ brand as planned/ Spent less or bought a cheaper item/ brand instead/ Spent more than planned or bought a more expensive item/ brand instead) Current declared purchase behavior/intent for mobile phones1 % of respondents with pre-COVID-19 purchase intent 71% of consumers with pre-COVID-19 purchase intent say they have either bought a phone, or still plan to do so within the year 87% of buyers say they spent equal to or more than planned pre-COVID-19 10% of respondents who say they are planning to buy a phone later this year are looking to trade down or spend less Category highlights Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 1,235, sampled to match consuming population 100 5 27 3 29 6 23 7 All respondents Bought in past 3 months1,3 Still plan to buy this year2,3,4 38 Will forego purchase2 33 Spent/intend to spend less than planned Spent/intend to spend same as planned Spent/intend to spend more than planned
  • 16. McKinsey & Company 16 Uncertainty of income was the most commonly cited reason for foregoing a planned mobile phone purchase. 58% 13% 12% 9% 2% 4% I don’t want to leave my house, and don’t want to shop online It does not feel right/ I feel guilty to spend given the serious impact of COVID-19 on society I want to save money because I’m worried about the effect of COVID-19 on my income I have other things on my mind and this is not a priority I have to spend money on other things I could not find anything I liked, either online or in physical stores Reason for planning to indefinitely postpone or cancel mobile phone purchase,1 % of respondents 1. Q: You mentioned you have dropped the plan of purchasing a mobile phone. Which statement best describes the reason for it? Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 575 for mobile phone deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
  • 17. McKinsey & Company 17 Among the minority of respondents who traded down or plan to do so, 78 percent express desire to stay with their preferred brand. 1. Q: You answered previously that you still bought a cellphone, but spent less than planned. Which statement best describes your purchase? (Represents 12% of those who purchases a mobile phone in the past 3 months) 2. Q: You answered previously that you still intend to buy a cellphone, but will spend less. Which statement best describes your future purchase? (Represents 10% of those who plan to purchase a mobile phone later within the year) 11% 11% 23% 55% Cheaper brand Respondents who have purchased or intend to purchase a mobile phone Same brand, same model but with a discount or promotion Same brand, cheaper model Will buy used instead Respondents generally intend to stick to the same brand as they had planned, with more than half looking for a discount or promotion for their preferred model Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 575 for mobile phone deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population Intention for consumers who have traded down or plan to trade down their purchase,1,2 % of respondents
  • 18. McKinsey & Company 18 In the shorter term, those planning to buy a phone most often say they expect to purchase from online marketplaces or exclusive brand stores. Physical multi-brand chains and local stores are cited less often Channel used or intended for purchase,1 % of respondents 1. Q: Where did you buy your prior phone? Q: For the phone you bought, which kind of store did you buy it from? Q: For your planned phone purchase, which kind of store will you buy it from? Exclusive brand outlet or pop-up Online marketplace with multiple brands Physical multi-brand mobile phone store Streetside/ independent unnamed shops Brand official website Mobile operator physical store Online website of electronics stores Online website Physical store Prior channel used 4% 5% 4% 7% 5% 5% 5% 10% 5% 6% 20% 17% 17% 23% 33% 30% 29% 22% 33% 2% 2% Buyers Planners 3% 3% 3% Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 575 for mobile phone deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population Physical multi-brand electronics store
  • 19. McKinsey & Company 19 Longer term, responses suggest online channels’ traffic, particularly marketplaces, could continue to accelerate. Expected change in consumer channel preference,1 % of respondents who use each channel 1. Q: How do you think your shopping preference for cellphones will change in the following channels after COVID-19 compared to before? Up to 18% of respondents say they expect to stop purchasing phones at physical stores Online website Physical store 50% 34% 34% 31% 26% 23% 19% 18% 14% 24% 36% 33% 35% 42% 37% 41% 39% 35% 24% 28% 28% 32% 28% 34% 33% 34% 34% 2% 2% 5% 3% 6% 8% 9% 18% Mobile operator physical store Brand official website Online marketplace with multiple brands Social media channel Online website of electronics store 4%Single brand physical store or pop-up store Physical store carrying many brands Physical electronics store Street-side/ independent unnamed shops Will use this channel more Will use this channel less No change in using this channel Will discontinue using this channel Net increase in channel preference2 +24% +3% +1% -3% -6% -17% -22% -25% -38% The responses suggest online channels are likely to gain ~37% additional purchase traffic switching from physical stores Leading channel pre- COVID-19 Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 575 for mobile phone deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
  • 20. McKinsey & Company 20 ‘Touch and feel’ experience and concern about the safety of deliveries are the most commonly cited barriers to online adoption. 1.Q: What are the top 3 factors preventing you from buying your future cellphone ONLINE? 2.Q: What are the top 3 reasons driving you to buy your future cellphone in ONLINE channels? 49% 43% 25% 20% 17% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12% Concern about data safety in website / mobile app Unclear return policy I like seeing and testing before buying Limited technical support Concern about safety of delivery Uncertainty about delivery times and process Shipping costs Inconvenient return process Limited product personalization Limited payment options 34% 34% 32% 28% 22% 18% 18% 12% 11% 11% Access to all product information Multiple payment options Convenience Promotion/ Discount Better price Free delivery Fast delivery Wide assortment of products Reliable customer service Live support on the site to answer my questions Barriers to buying online for respondents who prefer physical stores,1 % of respondents Reasons for buying online for respondents who prefer online,2 % of respondents Source: McKinsey COVID-19 online and mobile survey, 5/6-5/10/2020 N = 575 for mobile phone deep-dive, sampled to match consuming population
  • 21. McKinsey & Company 21 Disclaimer McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.