Carlo Carraro: Impacts of the Paris Agreement on Sustainable Development Goals
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What are the critical challenges the world faces in meeting international climate change and sustainable development targets? That was the topic of discussion at a side event this week hosted by Future Earth and its partners at the Bonn Climate Change Conference. The event, called “Reframing the Climate Debate: Enhancing the Paris Agreement and SDG Linkages,” addressed The World in 2050 project, a new effort to develop pathways to sustainable development within safe planetary boundaries.
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Semelhante a Carlo Carraro: Impacts of the Paris Agreement on Sustainable Development Goals
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Carlo Carraro: Impacts of the Paris Agreement on Sustainable Development Goals
- 1. Side event – COP 23, Bonn, November 2017 “The World in 2050 (TWI2050) Side Event: Reframing the Climate Debate: Enhancing the Paris Agreement and SDG Linkages” 0 Impacts of the Paris Agreements on Sustainable Development Goals Prof. Carlo Carraro University of Venice and FEEM Vice Chair, IPCC WG III with Francesco Bosello and Lorenza Campagnolo
- 2. Outline 1 • Indicators to capture SDGs • The Aggregate Sustainable Development Index (ASDI) • A model to project SDGs into the future • Scenario analysis: the effects of implementing the NDCs on sustainability
- 3. Sustainability assessment in 2030 2 • Our modelling framework aims at offering a comprehensive assessment of current well-being and future sustainability based upon 27 indicators representing 16 of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals • Model based indicators take interactions into account and allow projections and scenario analysis
- 4. Indicators 3 UN SDG APPS Indicator Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP2005) (% of population) Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) Physician density (per 1,000 people) Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) at birth (years) Youth literacy rate (% of population 15-24 years) n/a Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal renewable water) Access to electricity (% of total population) Renewable electricity (% in total electricity output) Primary energy intensity (MJ / $PPP2011) UN SDG APPS Indicator GDP per capita annual growth (%) GDP per person employed ($PPP2011) Employment-to-population ratio (%) Manufacturing value added (% of GDP) Total energy and industry-related GHG emissions over sectoral value added (t of CO2e / $PPP2011) Research and Development (R&D) expenditure (% of GDP) Palma ratio CO2 intensity of residential and transport sectors (t of CO2 / t of oil equivalent energy use) Material productivity ($PPP2011/ kg) UN SDG APPS Indicator Net GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sectors per square metre of forest and agricultural land (t of CO2e / sq. m) Compliance to Conditional INDCs* Gap from equitable and sustainable GHG emissions per capita in 2030 (t CO2eq) ** Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters) Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area) Forest area (% of land area) Endangered and vulnerable (animals and plants) species (% of total species) Corruption Perception Index Central government gross debt (% of GDP) ASD ASD ASD
- 5. The ICES model • The ICES model is a recursive-dynamic General Equilibrium model stylized behavior for economic agents markets are interconnected within each country by input-output relationships and across countries by international trade accumulation of physical capital stock, international and government debt connects intertemporally the sequence of static equilibria Detailed representation of public sector • Medium term analysis: 2030 • 45 countries/macro regions • 22 sectors 4
- 6. 5 7 indicators result from independent out-of-sample estimations combining the coefficients from panel regressions on historical data with the ICES model projections of explanatory variables. The main drivers for these indicators are: Poverty prevalence : GDPPPP per capita and Palma ratio Prevalence of undernourishment: GDPPPP per capita, Palma ratio, urban population, agricultural production per capita Physician density: health expenditure per capita and private health expenditure share Healthy life expectancy: physician density, education expenditure per capita, undernourishment prevalence and electricity access Literacy rate: public education expenditure per capita Electricity access: GDPPPP per capita, electricity output, urbanisation and Palma ratio Palma ratio: sectoral VA, public education expenditure share, unemployment and corruption control Empirically estimated indicators
- 7. Benchmarking and normalization 6 • In order to compare countries’ performance in different SDG indicators and to compute some aggregate measures, it is necessary to bring all indicators to a common measurement unit • The normalization procedure converts all indicator values into the interval [0,1] using a step function • Benchmarking normalization: SDG targets or best practices are used as benchmarks
- 8. Benchmarks Indicator Type Lower bound Upper bound ECONOMY GDP per capita growth (%) a 0 7 GDP per person employed ($PPP2011) a 5000 50000 Public debt as share of GDP (%) b 70 20 Employment-to-population ratio (%) a 40 80 Manufacturing value added (MVA) as percent of GDP (%) a 5 15 Gross domestic expenditure on R&D as share of GDP (%) a 0.5 3 SOCIETY Population below $1.90 (PPP) per day (%) b 40 0 Population undernourished (%) b 20 5 Physician density (per 1000 population) a 2 3 Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) at birth (years) a 54 68 Literacy rate of 15-24 years old, both sexes (%) a 85 100 Access to electricity (% of total population) a 40 100 Palma ratio b 2 1.2 Corruption Perception Index a 2.7 8 ENVIRONMENT Proportion of total water resources used (%) b 30 5 Share of electricity from renewables (%) b 5 60 Rate of primary energy intensity (Mtoe/million$PPP11) b 10 3 Total energy and industry-related GHG emissions over value added (kgCO2/$PPP11) b 2 1 CO2 intensity of residential and transport sectors over energy volumes(t of CO2 / toe) b 2.5 0.5 Net GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector over total surface (t of CO2e / sq. km) b 100 0 Gap from equitable and sustainable GHG emissions per capita (t CO2eq) b 15 0 Proportion of terrestrial protected areas (%) a 10 50 Proportion of marine protected areas (%) a 5 20 Forest area (%) a 5 60 Share of endangered and vulnerable (animals & plants) species (% of total species) b 20 5 Direct Material Consumption over GDP (%) a 0.5 2
- 9. 8 Aggregate sustainability using the ASD Index
- 10. 9 Ranking 2015 Country 2015 ASD Index 2015 Economy 2015 Society 2015 Environment Ranking 2015 Country 2015 ASD Index 2015 Economy 2015 Society 2015 Environment 1 Sweden 85.3 75.7 99.9 77.3 24 RoLACA 54.4 46.7 54.2 65.5 2 Germany 74.1 61.4 99.7 65.9 25 RoW 52.6 51.4 75.6 30.0 3 Finland 73.3 58.7 100.0 56.2 26 Greece 52.4 28.3 87.8 40.0 4 NewZealand 70.9 65.0 92.9 48.1 27 Mexico 51.8 40.7 62.6 50.9 5 France 70.1 44.5 97.4 55.6 28 Indonesia 50.9 41.4 56.7 54.8 6 RoEU 69.5 50.9 93.2 60.6 29 Turkey 49.8 40.0 69.5 43.5 7 UK 69.2 46.3 91.8 54.9 30 Peru 49.5 40.7 52.8 64.5 8 Australia 69.0 64.6 98.3 31.5 31 RoMENA 48.1 53.4 58.8 39.2 9 Canada 66.9 61.1 88.0 44.4 32 Bolivia 47.3 57.5 38.8 59.2 10 RoEurope 66.0 41.9 86.6 61.6 33 Ghana 43.3 22.1 35.5 60.3 11 Benelux 66.0 46.5 99.9 44.6 34 China 42.7 53.9 59.9 26.9 12 Japan 65.9 58.2 88.9 58.7 35 Egypt 41.8 28.4 62.9 39.1 13 Russia 63.0 65.0 67.9 52.8 36 Nigeria 41.7 30.0 21.7 56.2 14 Czech_Rep 62.8 52.6 92.5 53.4 37 RoAsia 39.8 33.7 41.2 50.4 15 SouthKorea 62.8 73.0 81.6 50.9 38 Bangladesh 39.6 41.5 35.7 48.6 16 Poland 62.6 46.6 83.2 55.3 39 SouthAfrica 39.5 43.6 45.4 27.0 17 Italy 62.5 40.4 91.0 51.6 40 India 34.5 52.6 25.3 41.2 18 Brazil 59.9 45.8 60.7 66.3 41 Mozambique 34.3 34.4 2.8 61.1 19 Venezuela 59.8 50.8 57.2 72.4 42 Ethiopia 34.1 33.2 23.6 41.5 20 Chile 59.7 53.5 72.9 52.9 43 RoAfrica 30.8 22.8 5.1 60.5 21 USA 58.7 56.8 82.6 35.1 44 Kenya 29.2 32.0 4.5 54.3 22 Argentina 57.3 53.7 75.3 48.8 45 Uganda 28.6 21.1 5.3 55.3 23 Spain 55.3 44.7 92.5 37.4 Sustainability in 2015: ASD Index and pillars
- 12. 11 Ranking 2030 Countries ASD Index 2030 ∆ Ranking ASD Index 2015 Ranking 2015 Ranking 2030 Countries ASD Index 2030 ∆ Ranking ASD Index 2015 Ranking 2015 1 Sweden 85.4 0 85.3 1 24 Spain 56.8 -1 55.3 23 2 Finland 74.7 1 73.3 3 25 RoLACA 56.3 -1 54.4 24 3 NewZealand 72.5 1 70.9 4 26 Greece 55.6 0 52.4 26 4 Germany 72.4 -2 74.1 2 27 RoMENA 54.0 4 48.1 31 5 Australia 71.6 3 69.0 8 28 Peru 53.9 2 49.5 30 6 Canada 71.3 3 66.9 9 29 Bolivia 53.2 3 47.3 32 7 UK 70.8 0 69.2 7 30 Turkey 53.1 -1 49.8 29 8 RoEU 69.7 -2 69.5 6 31 Egypt 52.9 4 41.8 35 9 France 69.3 -4 70.1 5 32 Mexico 52.5 -5 51.8 27 10 RoEurope 68.7 0 66.0 10 33 RoW 52.5 -8 52.6 25 11 Benelux 67.2 0 66.0 11 34 Bangladesh 52.4 4 39.6 38 12 Japan 65.0 0 65.9 12 35 Ghana 50.2 -2 43.3 33 13 Russia 64.9 0 63.0 13 36 India 50.0 4 34.5 40 14 Venezuela 63.7 5 59.8 19 37 China 49.0 -3 42.7 34 15 Italy 63.5 2 62.5 17 38 RoAsia 46.0 -1 39.8 37 16 Indonesia 63.2 12 50.9 28 39 SouthAfrica 44.2 0 39.5 39 17 Czech_Rep 63.0 -3 62.8 14 40 Nigeria 44.0 -4 41.7 36 18 Poland 62.4 -2 62.6 16 41 Ethiopia 42.4 1 34.1 42 19 USA 62.1 2 58.7 21 42 RoAfrica 41.1 1 30.8 43 20 Brazil 60.9 -2 59.9 18 43 Uganda 40.4 2 28.6 45 21 Argentina 60.2 1 57.3 22 44 Mozambique 37.1 -3 34.3 41 22 SouthKorea 59.6 -7 62.8 15 45 Kenya 32.2 -1 29.2 44 23 Chile 59.6 -3 59.7 20 Sustainability in 2030 in the SSP2 scenario SSP2 assumes growth rates for population and per-capita income similar to recent ones, lower resource and energy intensity, and decreasing fossil fuel dependency. In this scenario, sustainability slightly increases across the world by 2030
- 13. 12 Germany Uganda - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 APPS Index SDG 1 SDG 2 SDG 3 SDG 4 SDG 6 SDG 7 SDG 8 SDG 9SDG 10 SDG 11 SDG 12 SDG 13 SDG 14 SDG 15 SDG 16 SDG 17 2015 2030 - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 APPS Index SDG 1 SDG 2 SDG 3 SDG 4 SDG 6 SDG 7 SDG 8 SDG 9SDG 10 SDG 11 SDG 12 SDG 13 SDG 14 SDG 15 SDG 16 SDG 17 2015 2030 Sustainability in 2030 in the SSP2 scenario
- 14. Implementing the NDCs In this scenario, NDCs area assumed to be implemented by 2030: The EU28 achieves its target through an Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) The other countries impose a carbon tax Internal recycling of the revenues that contribute to national deficit reduction 13 Country Conditional target (%) Target type Country Conditional target (%) Target type Australia -27 Emission reduction wrt 2005 Venezuela -20 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario New Zealand -30 Emission reduction wrt 2005 Rest of Latin America (RoLACA) -20 Average mission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Japan -26 Emission reduction wrt 2013 EU28 -40 Emission reduction wrt 1990 South Korea -37 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Rest of Europe (RoEurope) -9 Average mission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Bangladesh -15 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Russia -27.5 Emission reduction wrt 1990 China -62.5 Emission intensity reduction wrt 2005 Turkey -21 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario India -34 Emission intensity reduction wrt 2005 Rest of MENA (RoMENA) -9 Average mission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Indonesia -41 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Ethiopia -64 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Rest of Asia (RoAsia) -21 Average mission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Ghana -45 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Canada -30 Emission reduction wrt 2005 Kenya -30 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario USA -27 Emission reduction wrt 2005 Mozambique -8 Emission reduction computed from target emission levels in 2030 Mexico -36 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Nigeria -45 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Argentina -30 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Uganda -22 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Brazil -37 Emission reduction wrt 2005 South Africa -22 Emission level target in 2030 is in the range 398 and 614 Mt CO2–eq Chile -40 Emission intensity reduction wrt 2007 Rest of Africa (RoAfrica) -33 Average mission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Peru -30 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Rest of the World (RoW) -35 Average mission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario
- 15. The implementation of conditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by 2030 has a positive impacts on SDGs and increases sustainability in most countries 14 Impacts of NDCs on SDGs Ranking 2030 NDC_Policy Countries ASD Index 2030 NDC_Policy ∆ Ranking ASD Index 2030 baseline Ranking 2030 baseline Ranking 2030 NDC_Policy Countries ASD Index 2030 NDC_Policy ∆ Ranking ASD Index 2030 baseline Ranking 2030 baseline 1 Sweden 86.5 0 85.4 1 24 Spain 58.4 0 56.8 24 2 Finland 76.2 0 74.7 2 25 RoLACA 57.7 0 56.3 25 3 NewZealand 75.3 0 72.5 3 26 Greece 56.3 0 55.6 26 4 Australia 74.2 1 71.6 5 27 RoW 56.1 6 52.5 33 5 Canada 74.0 1 71.3 6 28 Peru 55.3 0 53.9 28 6 Germany 73.2 -2 72.4 4 29 Ghana 55.0 6 50.2 35 7 UK 72.7 0 70.8 7 30 Bangladesh 54.8 4 52.4 34 8 RoEU 71.6 0 69.7 8 31 RoMENA 54.7 -4 54.0 27 9 Indonesia 70.4 7 63.2 16 32 Mexico 54.7 0 52.5 32 10 France 70.4 -1 69.3 9 33 Turkey 54.1 -3 53.1 30 11 RoEurope 70.1 -1 68.7 10 34 Egypt 53.0 -3 52.9 31 12 Brazil 70.0 8 60.9 20 35 Nigeria 52.4 5 44.0 40 13 Benelux 68.8 -2 67.2 11 36 Bolivia 51.2 -7 53.2 29 14 Russia 65.9 -1 64.9 13 37 China 50.8 0 49.0 37 15 Czech_Rep 65.7 2 63.0 17 38 India 50.0 -2 50.0 36 16 Japan 65.6 -4 65.0 12 39 SouthAfrica 47.9 0 44.2 39 17 Venezuela 65.0 -3 63.7 14 40 Ethiopia 47.4 1 42.4 41 18 USA 64.9 1 62.1 19 41 RoAsia 46.8 -3 46.0 38 19 Italy 64.5 -4 63.5 15 42 RoAfrica 42.3 0 41.1 42 20 Poland 64.4 -2 62.4 18 43 Uganda 41.1 0 40.4 43 21 Argentina 61.8 0 60.2 21 44 Mozambique 37.3 0 37.1 44 22 SouthKorea 61.6 0 59.6 22 45 Kenya 36.4 0 32.2 45 23 Chile 60.3 0 59.6 23
- 16. 15 USA Canada Japan - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 APPS Index SDG 1 SDG 2 SDG 3 SDG 4 SDG 6 SDG 7 SDG 8 SDG 9SDG 10 SDG 11 SDG 12 SDG 13 SDG 14 SDG 15 SDG 16 SDG 17 2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy - 20 40 60 80 100 APPS Index SDG 1 SDG 2 SDG 3 SDG 4 SDG 6 SDG 7 SDG 8 SDG 9SDG 10 SDG 11 SDG 12 SDG 13 SDG 14 SDG 15 SDG 16 SDG 17 2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 APPS Index SDG 1 SDG 2 SDG 3 SDG 4 SDG 6 SDG 7 SDG 8 SDG 9SDG 10 SDG 11 SDG 12 SDG 13 SDG 14 SDG 15 SDG 16 SDG 17 2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy Impacts of NDCs on SDGs: USA, Canada and Japan
- 17. 16 France Germany Italy - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 APPS Index SDG 1 SDG 2 SDG 3 SDG 4 SDG 6 SDG 7 SDG 8 SDG 9SDG 10 SDG 11 SDG 12 SDG 13 SDG 14 SDG 15 SDG 16 SDG 17 2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 APPS Index SDG 1 SDG 2 SDG 3 SDG 4 SDG 6 SDG 7 SDG 8 SDG 9SDG 10 SDG 11 SDG 12 SDG 13 SDG 14 SDG 15 SDG 16 SDG 17 2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 APPS Index SDG 1 SDG 2 SDG 3 SDG 4 SDG 6 SDG 7 SDG 8 SDG 9SDG 10 SDG 11 SDG 12 SDG 13 SDG 14 SDG 15 SDG 16 SDG 17 2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy Impacts of NDCs on SDGs: France, Germany and Italy
- 18. 17 China India Brazil - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 APPS Index SDG 1 SDG 2 SDG 3 SDG 4 SDG 6 SDG 7 SDG 8 SDG 9SDG 10 SDG 11 SDG 12 SDG 13 SDG 14 SDG 15 SDG 16 SDG 17 2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy - 20 40 60 80 100 APPS Index SDG 1 SDG 2 SDG 3 SDG 4 SDG 6 SDG 7 SDG 8 SDG 9SDG 10 SDG 11 SDG 12 SDG 13 SDG 14 SDG 15 SDG 16 SDG 17 2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy - 20 40 60 80 100 APPS Index SDG 1 SDG 2 SDG 3 SDG 4 SDG 6 SDG 7 SDG 8 SDG 9SDG 10 SDG 11 SDG 12 SDG 13 SDG 14 SDG 15 SDG 16 SDG 17 2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy Impacts of NDCs on SDGs: China, India and Brazil
- 19. 18 Ghana Bolivia - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 APPS Index SDG 1 SDG 2 SDG 3 SDG 4 SDG 6 SDG 7 SDG 8 SDG 9SDG 10 SDG 11 SDG 12 SDG 13 SDG 14 SDG 15 SDG 16 SDG 17 2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 APPS Index SDG 1 SDG 2 SDG 3 SDG 4 SDG 6 SDG 7 SDG 8 SDG 9SDG 10 SDG 11 SDG 12 SDG 13 SDG 14 SDG 15 SDG 16 SDG 17 2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy Impacts of NDCs on SDGs: Ghana and Bolivia
- 20. 19 The Paris Agreement and social indicators: developing countries -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Bangladesh Indonesia RoAsia Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Mozambique Nigeria Uganda RoAfrica Changenormalizedindicatorscorewrt2030baseline(pp) SDG1 SDG2 SDG3 - HALE SDG4 SDG7 - Ely access SDG10
- 21. 20 Thanks!