Mais conteúdo relacionado Semelhante a Decision CAMP 2014 - James Taylor - Decision Management 101 (20) Mais de Decision CAMP (13) Decision CAMP 2014 - James Taylor - Decision Management 1012. Decision Management 101
CEO of Decision Management Solutions
We work with clients to improve their business by identifying and modeling decisions, and applying business rules and analytic technology to automate & improve these decisions.
I have spent the last 12 years championing Decision Management.
Your Instructor – James Taylor
© Decision Management Solutions, 2014
2 3. Decision Management 101
The Power of Decision Management
Decision Discovery
Decision Services
Decision Analysis
Getting Started
Agenda
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3 5. Decision Management 101
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Decision Management
Decision Management allows an organization to control, manage, and automate the repeatable decisions at the heart of its business by effectively applying business rules, analytics, and optimization technology
Decision Management:
Increases accuracy
Increases consistency
Increases agility
Reduces decision latency
Reduces costs
It is a proven framework for implementing Business Rules Management Systems and Predictive Analytics
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Manage Risk
Personalize communication
Detect fraud
Enforce policies and regulations
What Can Decision Management Do?
And more…
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Strategic Decisions
Tactical
Decisions
Operational
Decisions
Different Kinds of Decisions
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Repeatable decisions
Non trivial decisions
With a measurable business impact
That are candidates for automation
Suitable Decisions for Management 10. Decision Management 101
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Scale For Large Impact
Strategic Decision
Tactical Decision
Operational Decision
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Straight Through Processing
Processes stop when decisions must be made
Process
Process
Process
Human
Decision
Human
Decision
Automated
Decisions
Straight Through Processing
Manage Rules &
Handle Exceptions
A
B
C
A
B
C
New
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Maximize Customer Value
1:1 Marketing
Personalization
Next Best Offer
Next Best Action
Micro Segmentation
All ways of saying “Make each decision about a customer uniquely about that customer”
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Effectively Manage Risk
Risk is not acquired in “big lumps”
Risk is acquired one transaction at a time
Supply chain risk when the wrong supplier is selected
Credit risk when a bad loan is approved
Delivery risk when a commitment is made for stock not available
…
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Many Enterprise Systems …
Report but don’t learn
Wait rather than act
Escalate rather than empower
Mindlessly consistent 15. Decision Management 101
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Automate More Decisions
Complexity
Value
Automated
Decisions
Expert
Decisions
Manual
Decisions 17. Decision Management 101
3 stages to better operational decisions
Delivering Decision Management
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Identify the decisions that are most important to your operational success
Design and build independent decision services to automate these decisions
Create a “closed loop” between operations and analytics to measure results and drive improvement 19. Decision Management 101
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Repeatable decisions
Non trivial decisions
With a measurable business impact
That are candidates for automation
Suitable Decisions for Management 20. Decision Management 101
Business Processes
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Discovering Decisions
Business Intelligence
Brainstorm
KPIs
Micro and hidden Decisions 21. Decision Management 101
“… provide a common notation that is readily understandable by all business users... DMN creates a standardized bridge for the gap between the business decision design and decision implementation.”
OMG Specification – a peer to BPMN
Decision Management Solutions, IBM, Oracle, TIBCO, FICO, Escape Velocity, KUL, Model Systems, KPI, Visumpoint
Standard content finalized, approval expected Q4-2014
Use Cases
Modeling Human Decision-making
Modeling Requirements for automated Decision-making
Implementing automated Decision-making
Decision Modeling and Notation (DMN)
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Decision Requirements Diagram
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Information
Knowledge
Decision
Increased Precision 23. Decision Management 101
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Decision Modeling
Identify a Decision
Question
Allowed Answers
What is required to make this decision?
Information
Reference Data
Transaction Data
Knowledge
Guidelines, policy
Expertise
Regulations
Analytic Insight
The results of other decisions
Reuse decisions
Identify new decisions 24. Decision Management 101
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Questions
Be specific with questions
Subject
Timing
Scope or limitations
Avoid
I, we
Questions that start “How”
Decision
Good question
Bad question
Customer Retention
Which retention offer should the company make this customer when they call to cancel their service?
How can we retain this customer?
Supplier Selection
Which of the company’s approved suppliers should be selected for this specific parts order?
What supplier should we use?
Preventative Action
What is the prioritized list of preventative actions for this quality team on this line today?
What preventative action should the quality team take? 25. Decision Management 101
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Allowed Answers
Type
Description
Notes
Yes/No
Yes or No
Or True/False, 1/0 etc
Number
A numeric value
Often constrained to a value in a specific range
Specific Value
One of the values specified in a list
For example Accept / Reject / Refer
Database value
A value stored in a database
Specify how to get the list of options - products, pieces of content etc.
Other
Generally a string or block of text
Such as a custom script or personalized email body
Structure
A set of values each of which is of one the allowed types
Some decisions involve the rolled-up output of their component decisions.
Single Answer
List of Options
Structure with parts
Supporting Information
Messages
Warnings
Notes
Explanations 27. Decision Management 101
Business Entities
Consider
Reference data
Case or transaction data
Best Practices
Stick to logical “clumps” of information
Business objects not technical ones
Could be one system or database, could be many
Each Input Data object can have a data structure
Input Data
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This knowledge can be of various types
External regulations
Internal policies
Expertise
Best Practices
Analytic Insight
Business Rules are found in Knowledge Sources
Consider
What tells me what I must do?
What tells me what I should do?
What tells me what I can do?
What tells me what I will probably do?
What would help me do it better?
“If only we knew xyz we could make a more profitable decision”
Knowledge Sources
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Finding Dependencies in Decisions
What information do you need to make a decision
Is that information available in the environment
Or must it be determined by making another decision?
Is the decision “atomic” or could someone stop part way through it?
If they could get part way through the decision, what are the logical components of the decision? Where could you stop?
How does someone make the decision?
As someone describes the decision they will likely, naturally, describe it in pieces
Is the decision made differently (or not made) in certain circumstances
Decisions that determine those circumstances are therefore relevant
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Decision Requirements Diagram 4
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Increased Precision 35. Decision Management 101
Credit Limit Assignment
Credit Limit
Income
< $40,000
>= $40,000
Card Type
Standard
$1,000
$2,000
Gold
$1,500
$2,500
Applicant Risk
U
Applicant Age
Medical History
Applicant Risk Rating
1
> 60
good
Medium
2
bad
High
3
[25..60]
-
Medium
4
< 25
good
Low
5
bad
Medium
Special Discount
Type of Order
Web
-
Customer Location
US
-
Type of Customer
Wholesaler
Retailer
-
Special Discount %
10
5
0
F
1
2
3
DMN Decision Tables
Rules as rows
Rules as columns
Crosstab or “classic”
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Simplifying Business Processes
Detailed requirements for business rules
Business understanding for analytic projects
Define Decision Service boundaries
Impact analysis
High level overview of decision-making
Improving Business Intelligence deliverables
Training decision-making staff
…
Multiple uses for Decision Models
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Explicit Decisions Simplify
Separating Decisions simplifies Processes
Modeling Decisions brings clarity 39. Decision Management 101
Process and Decision Models
Process Model
Decision Requirements
Decision Logic
Identifies decision tasks
Links tasks to Decision Requirements Models
Specifies Decision Logic or business rules for automated decisions
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With Just a Bucket of Rules
How to manage sources?
How much detail for a given rule?
Who owns which rules?
How and where to document rules?
What are these rules for?
What is the right format for a rule?
How do we find the right metaphor for rules? 41. Decision Management 101
Decision requirements models break down complex, redundant, hard to manage rules
Each decision and sub-decision is described with simple, unique business rules
Source of rules and information shown
Dependencies are clear
Logical Modeling Helps Manage Rules
Documented sources
Coherent rule groups
Ownership, volatility
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Decision
Analytics
Data
Cut Through By Focusing on Decisions
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Link Analytics Explicitly To Action
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Identify decision to be improved
Uses a non-technical notation
Model can be built by business analysts 45. Decision Management 101
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Define Decision Service Boundaries
Find the top most decision nodes that will be automated
Their sub-tree will be implemented in the decision service
Knowledge sources define the business rules or analytics to be implemented
Most information nodes will be data sources outside the decision services
Multiple phases can be defined 48. Decision Management 101
External Data
Big Data
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Building Decision Services
Business Rules
Predictive Analytics 49. Decision Management 101
Performance
Management
Enterprise Platform
Business
Intelligence
Data
Infrastructure
Application Context
Decision Service
Decision
Analysis
Business Rules
Predictive Analytics
Optimization
Business Process
Management
Event Processing
Enterprise
Application
Predictive
Analytics
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Decision Management In Context 50. Decision Management 101
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Business Decisions Need Rules
Business decisions are rich in business meaning
Business decisions require collaboration
Business decisions are constantly changing 51. Decision Management 101
public class Application { private Customer customers[]; private Customer goldCustomers[]; ... public void checkOrder() { for (int i = 0; i < numCustomers; i++) { Customer aCustomer = customers[i]; if (aCustomer.checkIfGold()) { numGoldCustomers++; goldCustomers[numGoldCustomers] = aCustomer; if (aCustomer.getCurrentOrder().getAmount() > 100000) aCustomer.setSpecialDiscount (0.05); } } }
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Business Rules Can Be Opaque 53. Decision Management 101
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Elements of a BRMS
Decision Service
Testing and Debugging
Technical Rule Management
Non-technical Rule Management
Impact Analysis
Data Management
Verification and Validation
Deployment
Rule
Repository 54. Decision Management 101
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Insight
Information
Data
Data, Information, Insight 55. Decision Management 101
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Usage Scenarios
Confirm or validate expert rules
Automatically discover patterns in data
Identify segments or groups with similar behavior
Predict trends or likely future behavior 56. Decision Management 101
Data Management
Data Preparation
Data Visualization & Analysis
Model Monitoring
Model Validation
Modeling
Deployment
Model
Repository
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Elements Of An Analytic Workbench
Rule
Repository
Operational
Data Store
Decision Service 58. Decision Management 101
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Four Main Drivers Of Change
New
regulations
or policies
Changes to
business
goals
Changes in
underlying
data
Overall
decision
performance 59. Decision Management 101
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An Environment For Improvement
•
My rules, in context
•
Only allow changes that make sense
•
No unnecessary information
Business User
Rules Management
•
Rapidly see
business
impact of changes
•
Design impact
and
execution impact
•
More than testing
Impact Analysis
•
Swapset
analysis for comparison
•
Simulation and what
-
if analysis
•
Business performance comparison
Alternatives
Assessment
•
Model performance monitoring
•
Self learning models
•
Managed model refresh
Analytic Models
Management 60. Decision Management 101
Decision Models link Business Performance to Execution
Improve Business Performance
Improve Cross-Sell
A
Total Number of Orders
Most Recent Order
Total Orders last 12 months
Lifetime Order Total
Customer Status
1
>= 5
< 90 days
> $10,000
-
Gold
2
>=10
< 180 days
> $20,000
-
Gold
3
>= 20
< 360 days
> $40,000
-
Gold
4
-
< 180 days
-
> $1,000,000
Gold
5
-
-
-
> $2,000,000
Gold
Gold Customer Determination
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Identify your decisions
Decisions that matter to customers
Transactional, operational decisions
Decisions that drive your business KPIs
Hidden and micro decisions
Model Decisions
Decision and Process Models help clarify requirements
Decision Requirement Models capture Information and Knowledge
Decision Requirement Models decompose decision-making for clarity
Decisions first, rules second
Model decisions before writing rules
Work top-down to reveal context
Iteratively extend the model, write the rules, develop the analytics, repeat
Key to Success - Focus On Decisions
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Key to Success - Technology Blueprint
Adopt a Business Rules Management System
Approach and technology
Management and governance
Change the relationship between business and IT
Integrate Data Mining and Predictive Analytics
Data Mining for rules
Predictive reporting
Executable analytics
Make Decision Services part of your architectural approach
Performance
Management
Enterprise Platform
Business
Intelligence
Data
Infrastructure
Application Context
Decision Service
Decision
Analysis
Business Rules
Predictive
Analytics
Optimization
Business Process
Management
Event Processing
Enterprise Application
Predictive
Analytics 64. Decision Management 101
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Key to Success - Three Groups
Business
Decision
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Additional Resources
Technologies Available for Decision Management
Decision Management Overview
BPMN and DMN Modeling
DecisionsFirst Modeler 66. Decision Management 101
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Wrapping Up
Thanks for attending the class
If you have any questions please email us:
james@decisionmanagementsolutions.com
info@decisionmanagementsolutions.com
Lots of additional content on our website, blog, twitter:
decisionmanagementsolutions.com
decisionmanagementsolutions.com/blog
@decisionmgt
More about DecisionsFirst Modeler
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