A Resilience Perspective on the Water, Food, Poverty Challenge
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Launch of the CPWF Resilience TWG inception workshop, Tempe 11 March 2011
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A Resilience Perspective on the Water, Food, Poverty Challenge
- 1. Elin Enfors, Alain Vidal & Line Gordon Tempe, Arizona, 11 March 2011 A Resilience Perspective on the Water-Food-Poverty Challenge
- 2. Foley et al. 2005 Agriculture – a dominating land use MA 2005; FAOSTATS; Scanlon et al 2007; Smil 2002
- 3. Sudden shifts in ag/water systems Gordon, et al. 2008 Wet savanna -> dry savanna Fog/cloud forests Forest -> savanna Monsoons Eutrophication Hypoxic zones River channel change Salinisation Vegetation patterns Soil structure
- 5. RESILIENCE - deals with the tension between persistence and change
- 8. 1. Linked social-ecological systems and trade-offs /synergies between different ecosystem services 2. Regime shifts and the tension of persistence and development (coping, adapting and transforming) 3. The role of disturbances/shocks for system dynamics 4. Operationalising adaptive management in a development context Some interesting aspects of resilience thinking in the water-food-poverty context
- 10. 2. Regime shifts and the tension between persistence and development What system states / trajectories are desirable? Resilient Non-resilient Resilient Non-resilient
- 11. Vidal et al. 2010 Adaptation / transformation case 1 Restoring river flows, water quality and ecosystem services in the Andes
- 12. The concern for ecosystem services emerged downstream Eutrophication and shrinking of Fuquene Lake High altitude wetland ( paramo ) degraded by potato cropping and overgrazing
- 13. Restoring upstream and downstream ecosystem services Paramo restored through conservation tillage and oat/potato rotation Water quality and ecosystem services from Fuquene Lake improved
- 14. Resulting changes on upstream water Conservation agriculture Traditional agriculture % Volumetric Water More water stored, restoring the buffer role of paramo Conservation agriculture Traditional agriculture Accumulated Organic Matter (g/g) Better soil porosity, filtration, increased water and carbon storage
- 15. Triggers for change between alternate resilient states S Annual net income: 2,183/ha Annual net income: US$ 1,870/ha Revolving fund supported conservation agriculture and paramo restoration Farmers’ insufficient gain + risk aversion: only 11% converted Revolving fund credit: +180 farmers /year Potato cropping, grazing pressure, degradation of paramo
- 16. Using water system innovations to change trajectory in Makanya, Tanzania Adaptation / transformation case 2
- 17. Context: A development oriented research program that investigated the potential of small-scale water system innovations (SWSIs) for improving productivity in dryland farming systems in a sustainable way Focus: Can SWSIs both improve yield levels and contribute to maintain a multi-functional agro-ecosystem 1) What are the current social-ecological dynamics of the Makanya agro-ecosystem? 2) How would the introduction (wide-spread use) of SWSIs influence those dynamics?
- 18. Approach: 4 sub-studies 2) Strategies to deal with drought 3) On-farm experimentation: effects of SWSIs on key soil variables 1) Historical development: Land cover change, rainfall trends 4) Participatory scenario planning
- 19. Feedbacks reduce the agro-ecological productivity, creating a trap Current social-ecological dynamics
- 20. LEVERAGE POINTS FOR TRANSFORMATION SWSIs have the potential to destabilize the feedback loop, reducing the resilience of current trajectory A. Stabilized yields B. Improved input/outtake ratio C. Reduced pressure on off-farm resources D. Reduced need for ag. land expansion E. Improved soil health F. Reduced erosion
- 21. 1. Linked social-ecological systems and trade-offs /synergies between different ecosystem services 2. Regime shifts and the tension of persistence and development (coping, adapting and transforming) 3. The role of disturbances/shocks for system dynamics 4. Operationalising adaptive management in a development context Some interesting aspects of resilience thinking in the water-food-poverty context
- 22. 3. The role of disturbances/shocks for system dynamics Increasing dryspell frequency in sub-Saharan Africa, a sign of changing variability Sedzimir et al in prep., Enfors et al, in prep Social-ecological timeline for Maradi/ Zinder in Niger, displaying gradual change and pulses of disturbance
- 23. 4. Operationalising adaptive management in a development context Integrated assessment map Identification of socially defined thresholds Bene et al. PN 72 project report Example from small-scale fisheries on participative ways of scoping the baseline for adaptive management
Notas do Editor
- Hysteresis (threshold with two regimes) or irriversible - these two why resilience matters
- Many tipping points exists in relation to food and water (here with black to grey showing level of certainity/amount of evidence)
- Hysteresis (threshold with two regimes) or irriversible - these two why resilience matters
- Change rather than stability is underlying resilience theory - sees change as both potentially detrimental (without resilience in the system) and as potentially creative and transformative)
- What is in it for the CPWF? Not just get inspired from resilience thinking, but also help build the theory…
- This keynote presentation shows, from three examples in developing countries, how the concept of resilience and regime shifts can be used to inform management about the potential of transformation of social and ecological systems to more resilient and productive states.
- The Fuquene Lake collects the water of the Rio Ubate, about 150 km North of Bogota, capital of Colombia.. Communities managing a range of high altitude Andean production systems including multiple cropping and livestock (from about 2000 to 3500 masl) affect the water quality by producing high levels of sediments along with Nitrates and Phosphates that are deposited in the lake. This has deteriorated extensively the lake accelerating its eutrophication and therefore, reducing the surface covered by water. The downstream municipalities, whose aqueducts depend partially or totally on waters from the Suarez River, which begins at the outlet of the lake, and navigators are concerned about the future of the lake..
- Agriculture and cattle raising have degraded the ecosystem specially the paramo (the high Andean alpine-like ecological zone, composed of high altitude wetlands) because of the expansion of the agricultural frontier. Changing from traditional agriculture methods to conservation agriculture, especially for potato production, was selected as a mechanism to decrease the sediment and nutrient flows.Research findings showed that conservation agriculture practices have contributed to restore paramos soils, especially those characteristics that determined the original capacity ofbuffering and filtering water in the upstream part of the basin. Moreover, these practices were found to be an extraordinary way to increase the soil carbon stock and to reduce the net greenhouse gas emissions produced by the conventional crop-livestock system.
- A new local revolving fund, financed so far by donations from organizations interested on financing activities delivering ecosystem services, has invested in conservation agriculture by upland farmers. Revolving fund is managed directly by farmer’s organizations and the technical assistance (to ensure practices are correctly implemented) is provided by the CAR-the environmental authority. Conservation tillage result in an increase in social benefits, but the expected gains will be modest. In the same sense a 17% of increase in net revenues in Fuquene farms could be not enough to overcome the possible aversion to risk of farmers (or other adoption barriers) and to encourage them to make an additional investment to cover initial extra costs of conservation agriculture (ie. cultivation of oat as cover crop). This fact may explain why this practice is not widely adopted in the Fuquene watershed (Currently there are about 1800 ha implementing these practices of 16933 ha under potato production in the watershed. JW mentions that even when interest rates are low most traditional farmers need at least 15- 20% or more advantage to make a change worthwhile (Byerlee et al.) Therefore the revolving fund provides credits to farmers willing to implement conservation tillage in their potato-based production systems, and since 2005 it has incorporated about 180 small farmers every year and now uses the capital of the fund at its maximum capacity.