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Mark Blandford Duncan Sheppard College of Policing
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Active Risk Management System - ARMS
1.
RESTRICTED © College of
Policing Limited 2012 www.college.police.uk Active Risk Management System ARMS Mark Blandford Duncan Sheppard BASPCAN Conference 2015
2.
RESTRICTED© College of
Policing Limited 2012 Child Protection & ARMS ? • Provides a standard for assessing dynamic risk factors • Draws upon evidence to identify significantly predictive risk factors • Considers protective factors in the case • Re-defines risk to be more relative to work required • Draws together findings into a case formulation • Gives consistency to the assessment and management of risk • Gives a priority to manage offenders
3.
RESTRICTED© College of
Policing Limited 2012 Governance • ACPO and Noms approved • Police Lead for MOSAVO approval and support • National Lead for Violence Public Protection • IPCC • HMIC/P • National College of Policing • Chief Constables Committee
4.
RESTRICTED© College of
Policing Limited 2012 Progress • 3 Pilot Studies • Ongoing Evaluation Studies • Development into implementation • Train the Trainer Courses • Police National Training roll out • Challenges
5.
RESTRICTED© College of
Policing Limited 2012 Empirically supported risk factors Meaningful Risk Factors Hanson and Bussiere 1998, Hanson and Morton-Bourgon 2005, Hanson, Thornton and Mann 2010 Significant predictive value for sexual recidivism • Sexual preoccupation • Sexual preference for children • Sexualised violence • Multiple paraphilia's • Offence supportive attitudes • Emotional congruence with children • Lack of intimate adult relationships • Lifestyle impulsiveness • Poor problem solving • Resistance to rules and supervision • Grievance/hostility • Negative social influences
6.
RESTRICTED© College of
Policing Limited 2012 Identified 7 Risk Factors • Opportunity to offend • Offence related Sexual interests • Sexual Pre-occupation • Emotional Congruence to children • Hostile Orientation • Poor Self Management • Anti Social Influences
7.
RESTRICTED© College of
Policing Limited 2012 Protective Factors • Polar Opposites of Risk ? • Recognizing the positive changes • Enhance accuracy of risk assessments • Counteract bias in assessments • Create less anxiety for offenders • Do the majority of those assessed as ‘High Risk’ actually re-offend?
8.
RESTRICTED© College of
Policing Limited 2012 Identified 5 Protective Factors • Pro-Social Network • A Commitment to desist • An intimate relationship • Employment/Positive Routine • Social Investment-’Giving Something Back’
9.
RESTRICTED© College of
Policing Limited 2012 Next Steps • Training of all police offender manager practitioners • Integrating ARMS into the MAPPA process • Shifting approach towards a balance of a deficit and strength approach • Evaluating integration of ARMS into practice • Young Person ARMS
10.
RESTRICTED© College of
Policing Limited 2012 QUESTIONS Duncan.sheppard@noms.gsi.gov.uk Mark.blandford@ntlworld.com
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