We are pleased to share with you our findings about the Private Equity Industry.
This report gives a hollistic understanding of the drivers that affect the industry and illustrates our believe that Venture Capital, considering the macroeconomic environment ahead, remains the most attractive strategy, and the one with the biggest Upside Potential.
2. 2
Private Equity has historically proven to be the Asset Class with
the Best Risk-Adjusted Return, and within it, Top VCs have
outperformed all other PE strategies
Also, VC is the one that, considering the macroeconomic
environment ahead, remains the most attractive and has the
biggest Upside Potential
4. Private Equity Has Been, And Is Expected to Be, the Asset Class
with the Best Risk-Adjusted Return
4
Private Equity is the asset class that has historically yielded the highest returns and is expected to retain
such position during the next 10 years, with an average of 10% annual return.
Historical and Future Expected Returns
9%
4%
6%
9%
13%
5%
1%
3%
6%
10%
Global Equities Cash Fixed Income Real Estate Private Equity
Historical Next 10 Years
(1): Average excluding Private Equity
Source: “Global Private Equity and Venture Capital 2017”, Prequin; “Horizon Q1 2017” Pictet; UBS Asset Management Bloomberg; MIT-CRE; Cambridge Associates; “Guide to Private
Equity and Venture Capital for Pension Funds”, Invest Europe.
Average(1): 7.0%
Average(1): 3.7%
5. Increase
48%
Maintain
46%
Reduce
6%
Consequently, Private Equity AUM Have Steadily Grown and
Investors Show Increased Interest in It
5
Private Equity AUM have doubled in the last decade, and investors still show a considerable appetite from
towards the asset class.
Private Equity Assets Under Management Evolution
($tr)
Increasing Investor Appetite for Private Equity
2017 Investor’s Intended PE Allocation
• 94% of portfolio managers intend to maintain
or increase their exposure to PE assets
Sources: “Global Private Equity and Venture Capital 2017”, Prequin; “Horizon Q1 2017” Pictet; UBS Asset Management Bloomberg; MIT-CRE; Cambridge Associates; “Guide to Private Equity and Venture Capital for
Pension Funds”, Invest Europe.
1,2
1,4
1,7
1,9
2,2
2,5
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
• Private Equity AuM have doubled in the last
decade proving a strong appetite for this asset
class
6. 6
Thus, Experts Recommend A 10%-20% Allocation to Private Equity
Allocating a small portion of any portfolio to Private Equity during the past 20 years would have improved
significantly its risk-adjusted return.
40%
60%
Traditional Portfolio
40%
40%
20%
Portfolio With Private Equity
Bonds Stocks Private Equity
7,1%
5,7%
8,9%
4,8%
Return Volatility
Traditional Portfolio Portfolio with Private Equity
25% Return
Enhancement
16% Risk Reduction
Sources: “An Overview of Private Equity Investing” 2017, Voya.
20 last years Performance of a Portfolio With & Without a 20% Allocation to Private Equity
8. Sources of Value Creation by Type of Private Equity
Buy-Out and Infrastructure obtain much of their return from the leverage embedded in their transactions.
Unlike these, VC’s main source of return is the innovative nature of the companies it invests in.
8
• Normally, VC is not exposed to debt. Other PE
strategies obtain much of their return from debt-
to-equity optimisation
• There is a good amount of management in VC
although not as important as it can be in buy-
out strategies. VC relies more on the
entrepreneur selection
• Early stages have more market imperfection
because selection is more difficult. There is a lot
to gain from it as compared to other PE
strategies
✓Source of Value Creation
Not a Source of Value Creation
Implications for VC
• VC invests in innovative companies that add
value via the increase in productivity, gaining
market share from zero or simply creating new
sectors. Much more than any other PE strategy
Leverage
Value from debt to equity
optimisation (low interest rates)
Active Ownership
Value from control and active
management
Arbitrage & Selection
Value from selection processes,
including price and terms
arbitrage
Innovation & Technology
Value from technology
breakthroughs
Lobbying & Regulation
Value from lobbying and
optimising around regulatory
frameworks
Venture
Capital
Buy-Out Infrastructure
✓ ✓✓
✓ ✓✓
✓✓ ✓
✓✓
✓ ✓✓
• As all strategies, VC is impacted by regulation.
But the value does not come from playing with
regulation (i.e. tariff controls, etc)
9. Cheap Credit and Historically High Market Prices Have Fuelled Buy-
Out Returns, but ECB’s Growth Predictions Have Now Been Going
Down for +10y
With low interest rates, buy-out funds have found cheap credit and obtained significant returns, also helped
by Market Prices, which are currently over turmoil situation levels, allowing for little room for growth. GDP
and Productivity growths are expected to shrink during the next years. By investing in traditional companies,
investors cannot expect anything much better than 1-2%.
9
Source: Thomson Reuters.
(1) CAPE Ratio or Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio: Price to earnings ratio that considers today’s price and the average inflation-adjusted earnings of the last 10 years.
(2) European Central Bank.
Low Interest Rates Vs. Buy-Out Returns & Market Prices
Rebasedto100
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
feb.-07
ago.-07
feb.-08
ago.-08
feb.-09
ago.-09
feb.-10
ago.-10
feb.-11
ago.-11
feb.-12
ago.-12
feb.-13
ago.-13
feb.-14
ago.-14
feb.-15
ago.-15
feb.-16
ago.-16
feb.-17
ago.-17
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Fed Funds Rate (RHS) Private Equity Index (LHS)
10 year CAPE Ratio (LHS)
+550%
31.3x
27.3x
Current
10y CAPE Ratio(1)
Pre-Financial
Crisis
10y CAPE Ratio(1)
ECB(2) Real GDP Growth Forecasts
(GDP Growth 5 years ahead)
ECB(2) Productivity Growth Forecasts
(Productivity Growth 10 years ahead)
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1.7%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1.4%
10. The Opportunity Is to Be Invested in Companies that Profit from
Technology Breakthroughs
Mobile Broadband Subscriptions are expected to grow by 50% during the next 6 years, creating
numerous opportunities that companies driving future technology breakthroughs can benefit from, just
like Amazon, Netflix, Airbnb or Uber are doing today.
10
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report November 2017.
Mobile Broadband Subscriptions
(bn)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
8.5bn
Blockchain
Artificial
Intelligence
Internet of
Things
Autonomous
Vehicles
3D and 4D
Printing
Technologies
• Uber disintermediated
the traditional taxi
service by putting in
contact part-time
drivers with willing
clients in a more
effective way$62bn
• Amazon changed, and
is still changing, the
retail industry with a
huge offer, low prices
and a high quality
customer service
• Netflix turned its
business model from
mailing DVD to
delivering video
content online and
eventually killed Block
Buster
• Airbnb leveraged on
hotels’ high prices to
connect prospective
guests with people
that wanted to share
their houses and make
an income out of them
$523bn $86bn
$31bn
5.8bn
c. 50%
11. 11
VC’s Nature Allows for More Value Added and Potential Upside
When properly executed, VC backs companies that not only have higher potential upside but also permit
to achieve more beneficious deals with regard to valuation and terms.
Skills
Direct VC Experience
Sourcing & Screening Power
Multi-Sector Know How
Due Diligence Capabilities
Valuation
Time
Venture & Growth Capital Buy-Out
Enormous
Potential
Upside
• To capitalize on the opportunity VC, the skills that
only firms with direct VC expertise can provide, are
a must-have
Company Lifecycle and Valuation Necessary Skills to Invest in VC
• VC offers a much greater upside potential but VC experience is
required, since the investment process is much more qualitative
1
2
3
4
12. 12
All in, VC Turns Out to Be the Strategy with the Strongest and
Most Solid Fundamentals
Venture Capital is set to benefit from strong fundamentals.
Potentiality Map
MarketTrendStrength
Value Creation Potential
Innovation
&
Technology
Leverage
Lobbying
&
Regulation
Active
Ownership
Arbitrage
&
Selection
Venture
Capital
Leveraged
Buy-Out
Infrastructure
13. Infrastructure Average: 14.6%
The Opportunity Is Such that, Even in a Context Most Favorable to
Buy-Out, Top VCs Have Outperformed All Other PE Strategies
13
Top Quartile IRRs from Vintage Year until 2016: VC vs. Other Private Equity Strategies
(Net IRR for Investors up to 2016)
18,00%
24,50%
27,50%
29,20% 29,60%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2008-16 2009-16 2010-16 2011-16 2012-16
Venture Capital Buyout Distressed Private Equity
Buyout Average: 22.1%
VC Average: 25.8%
Source: “Global Private Equity and Venture Capital 2016”, Prequin; Dealroom.
Despite the cheap credit availability that has fueled Private Equity strategies like Buy-Out, Upper Quartile
VC Funds consistently outperform their upper quartile counterparts, providing greater upside potential.
Fund Vintage - 2016
16. 16
European Society Has Shifted Towards Entrepreneurship
Europe has acquired a strong Entrepreneurial Mindset with a great acceptance of entrepreneurship as a
career path and a high rate of repeat founders with a greater acquired experience.
Evolution of Entrepreneurs by Geography
(Percentage of Entrepreneurs over Working Age Population)
Sources: Atomico Survey.
(1) Total Entrepreneurial Activity –Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2002 - 2016
of Students think that Entrepreneurship is a valid
career path
79%
85%
of Students are optimistic or think that European
Tech Ecosystem is going to remain about the same
82%
Entrepreneurship is Taught in the Best Universities
5%
7%
10%
6% 6%
7%
5%
6% 6%
5%
5%
8%
2002 2009 2016
Eastern Nordic Southern Western
Acceptance Rate between women, 2% more than in
men
Average 5% 6% 8%
• European Entrepreneurship has almost multiplied by 2x in
the last years, reaching about 8% of working age population
17. 1,1
9,7
0,5
4,5
Graduates Per Annum Graduates Last 10 Years
There Is an Unparalleled Engineering and Science Talent Pool in
Europe
Europe has an unprecedented ecosystem of talent that has been backed by world-class academic
institutions, which are currently producing significantly more talented professionals, focused on the tech
industry, than the US.
17
5 of World’s Top 10 Computer Science Institutions
are European
c. 5m
Source: Atomico, Eurostat.
Developers By Hub
71.497
9.990
27.333
40.538
15.915
9.586
11.346
22.944
83.262
London
Lisbon
Madrid
Paris
Berlin
Oslo
Stockholm
Istanbul
San Francisco
Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics
(“STEM”) Graduates
c.
0.5m
Global Rank Institution Location
1 ETH Zurich
3 Oxford Oxford
7 Imperial College London
8 EPF Lausanne
9 TU Munich Munich208.429
18. 17
19
1
2
18
Europe is the Largest Developed and Integrated Market
Europe is the largest developed and integrated market and the best positioned for technology
development due to its impressive size in terms of GDP, Internet Users and Smartphone Users.
321
510
1
2
Population
(Millions of people)
176
228
1
2
Smartphone Users
(Millions of people)
GDP
(PPP, $tr)
Internet users
(Millions of people)
279
405
1
2
Europe is the Largest Developed Market(1)
Source: World Bank, Atomico.
(1) Europe includes EU, Switzerland and Israel.
Benefits of an Integrated Market
Free Capital Movement
Unrestricted Commerce
Unique Regulatory
Environment
Strong Investor Protection
Pan-European Financial
Institutions
Cost-Effective Advantages
1
2
3
4
5
6
19. European VC Industry has Been Built over the past 20 Years,
With Stable Teams Capable of Exploiting the Opportunity
VC teams in Europe have developed a solid experience of c. 10 years proving their ability to select the
best investment opportunities given that they have been through several economic cycles and
understand the challenges involved in the sourcing and selection of the best alternatives.
19
Currently Active European VC Firms by Founding Period
European VC Funds with +10 Years of Experience(1)
5%
16%
25%
31%
22%
1990 - 1994 1995 - 1990 2000 - 2004 2005 - 2009 2010 - 2015
c. 80% of the European VC industry already
has more than 10 years of experience
Source: Invest Europe.
(1) Non-exhaustive list.
Founding Period
20. Results
1.311
308
265
240
229
179
134
118
78
GreenTech & Transport
Energy Efficiency
Education & Support
Agriculture & Food
HealthTech
ICT
DeepTech
General Innovation
Security & Public Services
And Public Institutions Will Continue Supporting Entrepreneurship
20
European Union Programs represent only c. 10% of Public Investment in Europe. The Union will keep
supporting entrepreneurship in Europe, as it has done historically, fuelling many successful businesses.
Source: European Commission
Europe 2020 Initiative is Fuelling Entrepreneurship Post-2020 Europe Investment Plan
Total 2016
Allocation to SMEs
through innovation
programmes
€2.9bn
2020 2027
Horizon 2020 Funding by Topic in 2016
(In €m) High Quality
Proposals Funded
Expected Impact in
the European
Economy
Research &
Innovation
Investment Long-
Term Objective
€80bn of Public Investments €120bn in Public Investments2014
• Focused on Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Horizon 2020 is
“Europe 2020 Initiative” flagship program to support SMEs
Exemplary Program within “Europe 2020”
Achieve a 33% of proposals
funded
(vs. current 20%)
€400bn by 2030
3% of the EU’s GDP,
compared to the current 2%
21. 1
• Mobile, Telecom,
Healthcare and Software
Not Surprisingly, Europe Is Already One of the Largest Global
Tech Hubs…
Europe has been able to develop some of the most powerful tech hubs globally.
(1) Also includes Rhein-Main-Neckar.
(2) Taking into account Cambridge Area too.
Amsterdam & Eindhoven
The Netherlands
• Amsterdam: ICT / Life
Sciences
• Eindhoven: Green Tech and
software
Antwerp & Burssels
Belgium
• Life Sciences
Zurich
Switzerland
• Medtech and pharma / life
sciences
Paris
France
• Media, advertising, e-
commerce, sharing
economy, AI
London & Dublin(2)
UK and Ireland
• Cambridge: Biotech,
wireless
• Dublin: Medtech, hardware
• London: Consumer, finance
Stockholm
Sweden
• Telecoms, Peer to Peer,
Software
Helsinki
Finland
• Mobile telecoms, gaming,
open source
Copenhagen
Denmark
• Life sciences
21
Berlin & Munich(1)
Germany
• Berlin: ICT / Life Sciences
• Munich: Hardaware,
software
• Rhein: IT
Tel Aviv
Israel
Barcelona
Spain
• Mobile Telecom, E-
Comerce, Gaming and
Software
10
11
9
1 2 3 4 5
6
7
8
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
8
10
11
22. …with a Large Deep Tech Startup Ecosystem
22
Europe is thriving with deep tech companies, closing the gap between the continental and American
startup ecosystems. However, European deep tech startups lack the funding levels strengthening US
companies.
Deep Tech Startups Founded since 2011
(Cumulative number of companies)
490
950
687
1252
2011-2013 2014-2016
Europe US
94% increase
• Between these two periods European deep tech startups have
increased at a 94% rate compared to an 82% increase in US
deep tech startups
Source: The State of European Tech 2016 – Atomico.
(1) Data for 9 months only during 2016.
Deep Tech Investment and Exits in Europe(1)
($m Capital Invested and Number of Deals)
• $2.3bn has been invested in Deep Tech since the start of
2015, a 4x increase since 2011
289
244
470
718
1.328
935
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
82
55
160
218
296
282
Capital Invested ($m) Number of Deals
23. 23
Able to Build Extremely Successful Precedents
Some of the most successful startups globally have been developed within the European VC landscape
and each year a greater number of European companies achieve this condition, continuing a clear growth
trend.
Source: CB Insights, Crunchbase and GP Bullhound Research.
European Extremely Successful Cases Evolution up to 2018
(Number of companies with a valuation over $1bn)
7
37
70
Up to 2010 Up to 2014 Up to 2018
mobli
+30
+33
24. …And a Proven VC Track Record
24
Venture Capital Teams in Europe have developed a solid experience and have proven to give consistent
and increasing double-digit returns.
(1) Source: The Acceleration Point - Invest Europe. Data as of end of 2015.
(2) Non-exhaustive list.
1,8
4,9
5,3
4
10,2
11,6
14,9
13,3
181
273
312
363
383
529
539
418
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exit Value # of Exits
European VC-Backed Exits
(€bn and Number of Exits)
CAGR 33%
10 18 17 11 27 22 28 32
Average Exit Value (€m/exits)
Double-Digit Net Fund Returns in EIF’s VC Portfolio
(Net Fund IRR since 2007)
33%
23%
16%
66%66%66%
46%
32%
27%
Top 10 FundsTop 20 FundsTop 30 Funds
IRR Boundary Median
25. 3,8 3,8
5,1
5,5
6,4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
This Attractiveness is Already Being Perceived by Investors
25
Larger European VC Funds and increased fundraising are finally giving the industry enough scale to
commit Pan-European investments and achieve higher returns.
Source: Invest Europe, EDC, Atomico, Pitchbook 1Q 2017 European Venture Report.
• Europe’s VC industry is coming off two record fundraising years
in which more than €17bn was raised. Before 2015, only in one
year (2008) fundraising had surpassed €6,5bn
• During Q1 2017 the industry raised €2.1bn setting the pace for a
>€8bn fundraising for the third consecutive year
48
66 64
108
127
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CAGR 14% CAGR 28%
• European VC Funds are now able to push for the winners
in later funding rounds and support the companies in
turnaround situations
Incremental Fundraising by European VC Funds
(€bn)
Mean Fund Size Evolution
(€m)
26. 1.10x
0.78x
1.58x
1.89x
2005-2010 2011-2015
Conclusion: European VC’s Potential Is Being Untapped
26
European VC Ecosystem offers significant room for growth and represents an attractive alternative
to the US VC market, being the improvement in performance of European VCs a proof of it.
Sources: “Global Private Equity and Venture Capital” 2016, Preqin; NVCA; EVCA; Northzone Ventures and IMF.
United States Europe
20,2 19,7
77
20
United States EuropeSize of the Economy (GDP in $tr)
VC Investments during 2017 (in $bn)
Roomfor
growth
2005-2010 2005-2010 2011-20152011-2015
Economy Size
Vs. Amount of
VC Investments
Venture Fund
Exit Value /
Capital
Commitments
• The economies of the US and Europe are
similar in size but VC investment differs
greatly
• There is significant room for growth in VC
investment in Europe
• From 2011 to 2015 Europe has been able
to deliver more returns on capital
commitments than the US