3. Capture your thoughts
• As we work
through the
session, write
down changes
you can make
in how you
think and do
when you
return to work.
4.
5. Integral Framework
Interior Exterior
Leadership
Reflective Practice
Individual
Collective
Good Ancestory
Strategic Thinking
Based on the work of Ken Wilber
6. Strategic Thinking
Generating Options Options
What might happen?
Strategic Decision Making
Making choices Decisions
What will we do?
Strategic Planning
Taking Action Actions
How will we do it?
8. Short term
Logical
Convergent
Pragmatic
Deductive
Creating
Alignment
9. Strategic Thinking
• Strategic thinking is about developing
strategy.
• Strategy is about the future.
ergo…
• Strategic Thinking is thinking about the
future.
11. • Big – do we
understand
how we
connect and
interact with
other
organisations
and the
external
environment?
12. • Deep – how deeply are
we questioning our
ways of operating?
• Do we operate from our
interpretation of the
past, or our anticipation
of the future?
• Are our assumptions
today valid into the
future?
13. • Long – how far
into the future are
we looking? Do
we understand
the shape of
alternative futures
for our
organisation?
14. • Strategic thinking is identifying, imagining
and understanding possible and plausible
future operating environments for your
organisation…
15. …and using that knowledge to expand your
thinking about your potential future options…
16. …about how to position your
organisation effectively in the external
environment,
17. …in order to make better informed
decisions about action to take today.
19. Thinking Big: Systems Thinking
• Leaders need to learn to see the larger systems
of which they are a part.
• Shifts focus from optimising their piece of the
puzzle to building shared understanding and
larger vision.
Peter Senge, The Necessary Revolution, 2008
20. Thinking Big: Systems Thinking
• Forces your attention:
– out to the external environment to understand
the impact of change,
– on connections and interdependencies,
– on aligning internal capacity with reality of a
constantly changing external environment,
– on identifying strategy that will ensure viability
of your organisations into the future, and
– on the big picture.
22. Worldview
• What might seem real to you probably
won’t seem as real to the next person.
– not right, not wrong, just is.
• How you filter information (your lens) to
create meaning is critical to understand.
28. You will know when to
test assumptions when
the pain of continuing
with ‘business-as-usual’
is greater than the fear of
challenging yourself and
others.
30. In education…
• Creating graduates for jobs that don’t
exist, using technology that hasn’t been
invented, to solve problems that haven’t
happened.
• Must understand the shape of this world to
be able to lead towards it.
32. UNCERTAINTY
High
Usual Planning Timeframe
(3-5 years)
The linear future is the one we
believe to be true, usually based
on untested assumptions
Trend
Linear Future
Low
Today TIME Future
33. UNCERTAINTY
High
Usual Planning Timeframe
(3-5 years)
Possible Futures
Trend
Linear Future
Low
Today TIME Future
34. UNCERTAINTY And…don’t forget the wildcard…
High
Usual Planning Timeframe
(3-5 years)
Possible Futures
Trend
Linear Future
Low
Today TIME Future
35. Trends
Whatever takes you away The weird and
from conventional thinking… unimaginable
Emerging Issues
36. Scan: know earlier
• Scan actively
• Scan in strange places
• Scan for diversity of perspectives (not
right, not wrong, just is)
• Look for connections, collisions and
intersections.
• RSS feeds
• Meta scanning sites
37. Scan: know together
• Collective wisdom is best when
interpreting scanning results.
• Need systems to record and share
scanning ‘hits’.
• Need regular gatherings at all levels to
interpret and explore what it all means for
your organisation.
• Get your whole organisation thinking.
38. Putting it all together:
What might be… and what can
we do about it today?
56. …and we need to demonstrate our
‘green’ credentials
57. Implications
• Students – how will they learn, what will their
experience look like?
• Staff – how will you work, what will a day look
like for you?
• The organisation – how will it have changed?
How will it have stayed the same?
• Learning – what will it mean (structure, delivery,
assessment, recognition)?
• Industry – what will it look like? How will people
work? What skills might be needed?
58.
59. Why do it this way?
• Beyond the short-term
• Beyond busy
• “We want to be proactive…”
• But, you can’t be proactive unless you
have spent time thinking about how you
might react to events that have not yet
happened.
64. REACTIVE PROACTIVE
FUTURES FUTURES
• Let’s get someone • Let’s think about
to tell us about the how to focus our
future of… organisations on
the future.
65. Reactive Futures Proactive Futures
What has happened? What is happening?
What caused it to happen? What is driving the trends that will
influence our future?
What are our alternative futures?
How do we respond? What ought we do today?
What would be the long term
consequences of our actions
today?
What will we do? What will we do?
After the event Anticipating the event
66. Recognise the blinders
• Mental filters (patterned responses)
• Overconfidence (far too certain)
• Penchant for confirming rather than
disconfirming evidence
• Dislike for ambiguity (want certainty)
• Group think (Abilene effect)
PJH Schoemaker and GS Day
Driving through the Fog, Long Range Planning 37 (2003): 127-142
67. It’s about changing
the way you think…
• Moving beyond pattern response and habitual
thinking that no longer works well when
uncertainty is dominant.
• Re-training our brains to make new connections
(ie be creative).
• Moving our brains from automatic pilot to
manual steering.
71. • The pressures of his job drive the
manager to be superficial in his actions -
to overload himself with work, encourage
interruption, respond quickly to every
stimulus, seek the tangible and avoid the
abstract, makes decisions in small
increments, and do everything abruptly.
Henry Mintzberg
The Manager’s Job: Folklore or Fact, HBR, 1975
72. • “Managers who get caught in the trap of
overwhelming demands become prisoners of
routine. They do not have time to notice
opportunities. Their habituated work prevents
them from taking the first necessary step toward
harnessing willpower: developing the capacity to
dream an idea into existence and transforming it
into a concrete existence.”
Heike Bruch & Sumantra Ghoshal, A Bias for Action: How Effective Managers
Harness Their Willpower, Achieve Results, and Stop Wasting Time, HBSP, 2004
73. The Result?
Our organisations
will tend to be
purposeless
wastelands,
populated by the
perpetually busy
and the inherently
unhappy.
Stephen Johnson, What do you do for a living?, 2007
74. • I’m too busy dealing with today to
think about the future…
actually means…
• I can only think short term, not long
term. I don’t have time to think
strategically.
75. If you succumb to the busyness syndrome, this is
how you approach the future.
76. • A futures thinking approach may mitigate
against falling into the trap of being caught
reacting to the day to day, where the
urgent drives out the important, where the
futures goes unexplored and the capacity
to act, rather than the capacity to think and
imagine, becomes the sole measure for
leadership.
Brent Davies
Leading the Strategically Focused School: Success and Sustainability
(2006)
91. Your turn…
• Focus: critical issue/decision today
• Scan: two trends likely to affect your decision
into the future (think uncertainty not
predictability)
• Interpret: think about how these trends might
play out over the next 10 years
• Imagine: how your organisation look like in 10
years – image/metaphor/book or movie title
• Decision: – implications/options for your
decision today. What will be the same, what
might you do differently?
93. • Strategic thinking is thinking about the
future.
• As leaders in organisations, your
responsibility is to influence others to
understand the imperative of the future.
94. The imperative of the future
• That a sustainable way of life for us as
individuals, for our organisations, our
societies and our planet is possible only if
we integrate the future into our decision
making today.
95. The imperative of the future
We focus on immediate needs and problems and are
trapped by this illusion that what is most tangible is
most real. We've been conditioned for thousands of
years to identify with our family, our tribe, and our
local social structures. A future that asks us to
overcome this condition and identify with all of
humankind looks alien indeed...we've never before
lived in a world in which one's actions, through global
business, can have their primary consequence of the
other side of the world.
Peter Senge
Creating Desired Futures in a Global Community, SOL, 2003
98. The gap between reactive and proactive
futures is bridged by making time for
strategic thinking..
99. Individual Strategic
Foresight Foresight
Individuals recognise and build their
foresight capacity
unconscious conscious
Individuals begin to talk about and use
futures approaches in their work
implicit explicit
Collective individual capacities
generate organisational capacity
(structures & processes)
solitary collective
100. YOU
Interior Exterior
Reflective Practice Leadership
Commit to building time to Make a change in your routine
do this daily – stop doing when you go back to work.
something else if you Individual
have to
Collective
Good Ancestory Strategic Thinking
Recognise the impact of Whenever you have to make
decisions today for future a decision, ask: “Am I
generations thinking, big, deep and long?”
Based on the work of Ken Wilber
101. YOUR
Interior Exterior
ORGANISATION
Leadership
Reflective Practice
Build a scanning system to
Encourage and support
inform decision making – and
an outward looking staff
pay attention to it
Individual
Collective
Good Ancestory Strategic Thinking
Create a futures focused Have thinking workshops as
decision making culture well as planning workshops
Based on the work of Ken Wilber
102. How do you know when?
• Strategy framework defined by tomorrow’s
strategic issues rather than today’s operations.
• Strategic thinking capabilities are widespread in
the organisation (not just senior executives).
• Process for negotiating trade-offs is in place.
• Performance review system focuses managers
on key strategic issues
• Reward system and values promote and support
the exercise of strategic thinking.
Adapted from Thinking Strategically, McKinsey Quarterly, June 2000
103. • Strategic • Futures focused
Thinking decision making
= integrating the = “am I thinking
future into your big, deep and
decision making long?”
today.
104. • The aim is to understand - as best we
can - the long term context of our
decisions today, so that we make
those decisions as wise and as robust
as is possible.
105.
106.
107.
108. Your turn…
(as guide for discussion)
• Focus: critical issue/decision today
• Scan: two trends likely to affect your decision
into the future (think uncertainty not
predictability)
• Interpret: think about how these trends might
play out over the next 10 years
• Imagine: how your organisation look like in 10
years – image/metaphor/book or movie title
• Decision: – implications/options for your
decision today. What will be the same, what
might you do differently?
109.
110. Prior to Strategic Planning
Before starting a strategic planning process, it is important to ask,
“What do we want to accomplish through strategic planning?” The
reasons for planning will have a major impact on how to go about
the planning, who to involve, and whether a strategic plan is what
you need.
1. What do we want to achieve from a planning process? What will
success look like at the completion of our planning process?
2. What are the issues facing our department/college? What questions
need to be answered during the planning process?
3. Are there any products or processes that are non-negotiable (not up
for discussion)?
111. Maree Conway
Thinking Futures
http://www.thinkingfutures.net
http://futuresthink.blogspot.com
maree.conway@thinkingfutures.net
Photos from fotolia.com and istockphoto.com
Notas do Editor
Strategic Thinking is but one capability needed by leaders for the future. Integral leaders strive to achieve their fullest potential by paying attention to all four quadrants. Responsibility for Self values, thinking systems, life experience your purpose, your intent, your vision, your focus where you decide to put your energy Responsibility for Others Leading others – supporting them to grow and develop Responsibility for the Future Accepting your responsibility for future generations every decision we make today has an impact on the future, our micro decisions coalesces to create global futures what are we putting in the stream? Diversity of perspective Shared values Myths & Legends Responsibility for Wise Decision Making Using systems thinking to understand the big picture and long picture taking a futures perspective on our decisions today (using past, present and future to inform decision making) taking a holistic view of decisions based on long term, not short term imperatives UL personal commitment UR consistent with individual behaviour LL which will build supportive culture LR to create significant changes in larger systems.
The thinking that goes into the plan is the least understood and most ignored part of strategy development.
So why don’t we think this way? Why don’t organisations take a long term view. Strategic thinking needs a particular mindset and capacity to move beyond the linear – it needs open minds, and you have to be comfortable working with ambiguity.
Whereas strategic planning is about putting things together, implementation, monitoring and reporting. It requires a different mindset.
Or are you just assuming that the future will be more of the present?
How do we connect out there? What does it mean for our operations?
Our minds are habitual, pattern recognition machines.
Assumption Walls Ask why when you have a ‘that’s rubbish’ reaction to something. What would have to happen for you to accept this as real?
And we need to consider wildcards, the discontinuities that are low probability, high impact events that can change the world overnight. 9/11 was a wildcard.
The linear future is the one we assume to be true. We need to explore the widest range of possible futures before we make any assumptions about relevance.
The linear future is the one we assume to be true. We need to explore the widest range of possible futures before we make any assumptions about relevance.
The linear future is the one we assume to be true. We need to explore the widest range of possible futures before we make any assumptions about relevance.
Because there is always more than one type of future out there. Where we end up depends on the depth and breadth of our thinking today.
You can’t know the detail of the future, but there are enough signals and signs about today that, when you add in lessons from hindsight, will give you a powerful platform to begin building your preferred future or you or for your organisation. But, you need to be alert to these signals. You need to be seeing them before your conscious mind thinks about them. (c) Thinking Futures 2007
(c) Thinking Futures 2007
Living with the effects of a global world now – global financial crisis. An increasingly mobile workforce, coupled with skilled migration. Move towards ‘seamless’ education systems.
Government policy and views determining funding regimes – much energy goes into this.
Financial/funding arrangements continue to be subject to current government view and policy.
Students in the future may well not want to learn in classrooms, they may want to learn in their bedrooms, in their workplaces. Students will choose to learn when and where they want to. They will choose to learn how they want to. This is underpinned by the emerging trend around individualisation – it’s global, many loose relationships, a move from mass to micro markets and an increasing do-it-yourself approach. The ways generations y and z communicate and build knowledge IS different to the way baby boomers and even generation x do it. Y and Z are the students of the future, and their preferences – not ours - must be a driving force for strategy today. Higher average age due to ageing population Changed careers multiple times More diverse – geography, social and ethnic background – driven by increasing labour force participation by women, students with disabilities and indigenous backgrounds. Not quite there yet – current business models don’t seem to be working, and existing online projects and consortia seem to be failing or re-thinking and scaling back their operations.
The delivery of learning is constantly shifting. Mobile learning – laptops, mobile phones, PDAs Connected learning – via wireless networks Visual and Interactive learning – video conferencing, streaming, interactive whiteboards, Web 2.0 voting/ranking etc. Technology enabled classroom environments, online delivery where learning is virtual, and workplace based delivery. Clear that more technology enabled learning will be needed in the future.
SNACK CULTURE* represents the ‘UNFIXED' trend on steroids, catering to consumers’ insatiable craving for instant gratification. SNACK CULTURE thus embodies not only the phenomenon of products, services and experiences becoming more temporary and transient; it’s also about products literally being deconstructed in easier to digest, easier to afford bits, making it possible to collect even more experiences, as often as possible, in an even shorter timeframe. The signs are everywhere, from ubiquitous commerce to fragmented (shattered?) media to fast fashion. SNACK CULTURE is not a 'new new’ sub-trend, but definitely one that will continue to thrive. Learning will be continuous, through life. Learners will demand highly flexible and customisable learning that is available 24/7 to allow them to develop their own tailored portfolios of capabilities and to decide when and where to undertake their education. This pick and choose approach will also result in demands for recognition for their learning achievements – which is 10 years time will probably be moving away from the qualification framework that we have now. May want services to help them package and ‘sell’ their capabilities. Industry and institutions co-creating content and delivery models.
Singularity – technological creation of self-improving intelligence – long term pattern of accelerating change that will result in machines surpassing human intelligence and then improving own designs and augmenting their intelligence.
Business and networks are starting to merge, as the boundaries around business operations start to dissolve. The idea that organisations are living systems is emerging. The concept of a workplace is changing. There is increasing flexibility in working practices and the emergence of the concept of hyper-local working – anytime, anywhere – just like student learning. One trend that seems to be emerging is that of working in virtual worlds in the future. More people are postponing their retirement, or going back to work after retirement. Changing organisational leadership paradigms are emerging that focus around being aware - presencing and mindfulness - around intellectual rather than functional leadership. The industrial concepts of command and control, predictability, and micro-management are dead – but, looking around universities today, you wouldn’t know it. But, guess what – the skills most valued by employers in the future probably won’t change all that much – resilience, adaptability, collaboration and social networking skills. People skills. There will continue to be a war for talent, and casualisation of the workforce is likely to increase. Impact of ageing workforce and how to retain workers continues to be a focus for employers.
Increasing demand by consumers and employees for organisations to establish and demonstrate their ‘green’ credentials.
If we wait until the future is upon us, we risk creating reactive futures.
We need to be planning for possible alternative futures, not the expected future. The expected future is one of the futures you plan for, but it’s not the only one.
Swinburne University of Technology But, my sense of how we try to do planning now is that (and I am generalising here): we plan for a single future that is developed after we have done lots of data analysis and produced lots of trend analysis, we do that by extrapolating those data and trends into the future (that is, we use the past and present to create the future), we don’t often include staff views about their preferred organisational futures, And we don’t often identify and question our assumptions about the future – we maintain an official future that already exists. What might we be missing here?
But the future is complex, uncertain, unknown, there are no future facts.
We need to reframe the task at hand. The future of organisations – reactive The future will just happen to us We are bit players Or Focusing our organisations on the future – proactive We have a role to play in creating organisations of the future How do we get our organisations to be more future focused, futures ready? Mind you, not future proofed because that’s impossible.
To imagine the future, we have to recognise the blinders to our thinking.
You are probably stuck in your habitual mode of thinking. Thinking styles become automatic over the years, and because for the most part they work well for us, we have no incentive to change them. But when your thinking patterns limit your ability to approach problems creatively, it is time to challenge old habits.
The future is catching all of us. At least we can make sure that it catches us with our eyes and our minds wind open. (c) Thinking Futures 2007
It’s not a leader’s job to be busy.
We need to engage in outrageous thinking about learning environments. Now, I realize that outrageous means exceeding all bounds of reasonableness; it means something shocking. However, I think that we need to deal with concepts of space and education that are indeed shocking. We need to realize that reasonableness is defined by present context. We further need to realize that what is unreasonableness today may be very reasonable in the 21 st century and it is for the 21 st century that we are contemplating education space. Hunkins, Reinventing Learning Spaces, 1994 http://www.newhorizons.org/strategies/learning_environments/hunkins.html
We have talked about the external quadrants today – but they don’t work unless you consider the internal quadrants. They are interdependent – if you ignore one, you will be less effective.
We have talked about the external quadrants today – but they don’t work unless you consider the internal quadrants. They are interdependent – if you ignore one, you will be less effective.
Remember the point of all of this is to avoid this happening to you