Passing the healthcare innovation torch: from medicinal chemistry, though biotechnology to digital technology
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In the middle of the 20th Century, pharmaceutical companies were highly respected and patients depended on their physicians to make healthcare decisions. Drugs were a key part of a physician’s ‘toolkit’. As we entered the era of the blockbuster drugs, most were small molecules made by chemical synthesis, but biotechnology was starting to emerge as a possible source of new therapeutics. Meanwhile, direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical advertising began to empower patients. Fast forward to today, and we see pharmaceutical companies suffering degraded reputations and values, patients further empowered by the Internet and social media, and average life expectancies increased by a decade. Digital health technologies are poised to explode and the top 10 pharmaceuticals by sales will soon all be biologicals!
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Passing the healthcare innovation torch: from medicinal chemistry, though biotechnology to digital technology
- 1. Passing the Healthcare Innovation Torch: From Medicinal Chemistry through Biotechnology to Digital Technology Frontiers of Medicine MaRS 8 May 2013 Martin Sumner-Smith
- 2. About me Martin Sumner-Smith, PhD Academic – Biotechnology – Bioinformatics – Enterprise – Advisory 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s
- 4. Global Core Systems The world’s 4 trillion dollar challenge, Using a system-of-systems approach to build a smarter planet – IBM
- 6. Inefficiency in Healthcare The world’s 4 trillion dollar challenge, Using a system-of-systems approach to build a smarter planet – IBM
- 9. “…the industry has seen itself as an independent product supplier to healthcare rather than as an integrated part of, and collaborator with, the other participants in the ecosystem.” Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
- 10. Market Growth
- 11. Patent Expiry Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
- 12. Declining R&D productivity Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
- 13. R&D Success vs. Expenditure Identifying R&D outliers Peter Tollman, Yves Morieux, Jeanine Kelly Murphy & Ulrik Schulze Nature Reviews Drug Discovery 10, 653-654 (September 2011)
- 14. Identifying R&D outliers Peter Tollman, Yves Morieux, Jeanine Kelly Murphy & Ulrik Schulze Nature Reviews Drug Discovery 10, 653-654 (September 2011)
- 16. Life Sciences Industry Trends… • Blockbuster era comes to an end • Strong sales growth but declining expectations P/E for large-cap biopharma fell from 35x in 2000 to 11x in 2010 Pricing and access pressures Higher scientific hurdles More stringent regulatory hurdles Increased competition R&D actually destroys value in some organizations!
- 17. Slide 18 Time MarketGrowth Technology Adoption Life Cycle Growth Market Mature Market Declining Market Indefinitely elastic middle period End of Life A Fault Line! E D C B The Category Maturity Lifecycle Category Lifecycle
- 18. Slide 19 Experiential Innovation Marketing Innovation Innovation Types for Mature Markets – Customer Intimacy Zone Customer Intimacy Zone Enhancement Innovation Line Extension Innovation There are four types of innovation in the Customer Intimacy Zone
- 19. Slide 20 Market Access • Moore describes this further market development as ‘fractilization’ of core markets PC
- 20. 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s First DTG in 1981 Merck’s Pneumovax in Reader’s Digest http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3278148/
- 24. TRIZ Genrich Altshuller: “Theory of Inventive Problem Solving” 1. Problems and solutions are repeated across industries and sciences 2. Patterns of technical evolution are also repeated across industries and sciences 3. Innovations used scientific effects outside the field in which they were developed http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRIZ
- 28. Therapeutic Foci Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
- 29. Market Leading “Pharmaceuticals” • In 2012 the top pharmaceutical was a biological for the first time Abbvie’s HUMIRA • “By 2020 the top 10 pharmaceuticals will all be biologicals” – Steve Burrill
- 30. Sales Erosion after Patent Expiry Small Molecule Biologicals Measuring the return from innovation: Is R&D earning its investment? – Deloitte
- 32. R&D Innovation • Rising costs, especially sunk cost for failures Late stage failure rates too high • Declining output Need to simplify operations • Costs 7x in 25 years Cost per new drug now $1.1 - 1.7 billion Slow pace of discovery and validation Inefficient patient recruitment • 80% miss deadlines, average 90 day delay Complex analysis required for trial termination
- 33. Risk Mitigation The future of the life sciences industries: Transformation amid rising risk – Deloitte
- 35. Life Sciences Industry Trends • Traditionally: A high-risk, high-margin business • But increasing pressures: • Loss of patent protection & competition from generics • Costs of innovation and R&D skyrocketing • Reimbursement ceiling and demands • Increased transparency required by regulators & others • Drive a move to: Managed risk and more conservative margins
- 36. “The life sciences industry stands at a crossroads. Its business model is broken, and the surrounding healthcare ecosystem is changing dramatically. So how should companies respond? They can carry on as normal and potentially fade into insignificance or completely rethink how they engage with the other stakeholders in the healthcare ecosystem in an effort to flourish anew.” Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
- 37. “…you can’t meet the challenges of tomorrow with yesterday’s tools—and expect to survive.” The future of the life sciences industries: Transformation amid rising risk – Deloitte
- 39. “One of the key drivers for the future lies in using information to create more personalised care and standardisation at the same time. We are witnessing the ‘industrial revolution’ of healthcare, enabled by IT” – PA Consulting
- 40. “And while the industry remains data rich, it is weaker when it comes to turning data into insights.” Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
- 42. From vision to decision: Pharma 2020 – pwc
- 43. Engaging the Patient http://www.ted.com/talks/jamie_heywood_the_big_idea_my_brother_inspired.html
- 44. “The shifting trend in pharma towards increased adoption of IT beyond their traditional needs and exploring new IT avenues in digital marketing, regulatory submissions, predictive analysis & cloud computing has become more evident in the last few years.” IT Life Sciences Summit 2012: Technology Enabled Pharmaceutical Business Transformation – DIA
- 56. Smartphone/Tablet base features • Processor • Local and Cloud storage • Distant communication • Time • Location • Activity • Local communication • Camera…
- 58. Wearables IMS estimates $14 million in 2011 rising to $171 million by 2016
- 59. Add-ons
- 62. The Internet of things – M2M
- 65. Watson
- 67. Where do the data go?
- 69. Synergy “At 8:03am you used your asthma puffer while entering the MaRS concourse, walking at a moderate pace towards the Tim Horton’s after an unusually long subway ride. Your pulse was 110, blood pressure 135/80, temperature 37.2, blood glucose…”
- 70. “Based on data collected to date I estimate that there is 78.9% probability of an allergen to which you react present at the following locations…”
- 72. Thank you Martin Sumner-Smith, PhD Email: martins@digitalforhealth.com Office/Mobile: 1 (416) 727-4426 Web: www.DigitalForHealth.com Twitter: @martinss Linkedin: http://ca.linkedin.com/in/martinss