Outlook And Initiative for Rural Banks admidst the Global Financial Crisis

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Green Bank President, Joseph Omar Andaya,

2009 RBAP-MABS NATIONAL ROUNDTABLE CONFERENCE MAY 12-13, 2009 HYATT HOTEL AND CASINO MANILA Outlook and Initiatives for Rural Banks Amidst the Global Financial Crisis Joseph Omar Andaya President, Green Bank of Caraga

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Alternative Lending emerged to provide credit access to individuals and businesses who lack credit history or in other words - the ‘thin file’ borrowers. The primary segments of Alternative Lending are Consumer Finance and Small and Medium-Sized Business Finance. The COVID-19 pandemic is causing most economies to shrink in 2020 causing enormous job losses, revenue losses for businesses, and in some cases business closures. Consumer spending took a significant hit due to the pandemic. As per data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, Retail Sales of Consumer Goods contracted by 20.5% in January-February 2020 compared to January-February 2019. The growth remained in the negative territory for the first two quarters of 2020. Data from VISA and Mastercard show a drastic drop in credit-card debt use. Demand for household short-term credit is still subdued. As unemployment rates improve and retail sales pick up the pace, demand for consumer finance is expected to improve in the coming quarters. Many SMBs are going through severe financial distress primarily due to lower demand and lack of access to credit. Many may not recover and close their businesses. Lack of demand may hinder the SMBs from accessing and/or getting approval of business loans. On the supply side, the alternative lending companies may struggle to access low-cost capital due to deteriorating balance sheets of the banks and NBFCs who likely to increase risk-premium and even avoid exposure to the high-yield segments. Increasing bad loans may push policymakers to put safeguards in place which may lower profitability and limit access to capital for the alternative lenders. For example, China's Supreme Court slashed the legally protected ceiling of informal lending rate in August 2020. This is expected to unfavorably impact the profitability of alternative lenders. Established fintech (Square, PayPal, etc.) are entering the lending business, and as credit demand improves we may see more of this trend. Many large retailers such as Amazon, Macy’s, etc. partnered with financial services companies to extend consumer credit to their customers. We may expect to see acquisitions of fintech lenders by the retailers. Stressed balance sheet likely to increase M&A activities in the sector.

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