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[Smart Grid Market Research] South Korea: Smart Grid Revolution, Zpryme Smart Grid Insights, July 2011
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2.
“ South Korea: Smart
Grid Revolution. been bracing on low carbon "green‖ technologies such as smart grid. Recognizing smart grid as the key solution to Employing smart grids would help the country (South achieve Low Carbon Green Growth vision, in 2009, Korea Korea) use more renewable energy sources and cut announced its National Smart Grid Roadmap and came overall energy consumption. A smart grid, which helps cut up with a proactive and ambitious plan to build a smart energy consumption and accommodate more wind and grid test-bed on Jeju Island. The Jeju smart grid solar power, is essential for reducing harmful gases as the demonstration project has 168 Korean and foreign power sector is the biggest emitter in every country.1 companies participating and is the largest scale of smart grid test-bed carried out in Korea. Korea plans to develop - Hong Sung-eui new business models through the test-bed and hope to (Technology Official at KEPCO) contribute to global GHG reduction goals.‖ Faster than industry experts expected, South Korea has joined the hen a growing nation with growing energy ranks of smart grid and clean tech deployment global needs such as South Korea proclaims it’s going leaders such as the U.S. and China. to smarten up its electric grid, technology companies across the globe — not surprisingly — take note. South Korea has a rich and determined plan for a completely integrated smart grid by 2030. The major Asian economic region has finally realized its industry advantages in the smart grid sphere and developed a comprehensive road map to leverage these assets toward a nationwide smart grid. Kim Seung Woo, an analyst at Samsung Securities, told Bloomberg, ―The upgraded power grid will help the nation, which buys all its energy needs from overseas, reduce import of coal, gas and oil.‖2 Currently, the government has utilized its resources and that of the state-run transmission operator, KEPCO, to implement one of the world’s largest and ambitious smart grid test projects on Jeju Island. Jae-Seob Kim, CEO of Korea Smart Grid Institute (KSGI) explained to Zpryme, ―on Aug 2008 during the occasion of the 60th Anniversary of Figure 1 - Source: Zpryme the Republic of Korea, President Lee Myung-bak South Korea has a US$162 million smart grid equipment announced Low Carbon Green Growth as the new and technology market, projected to grow over the next national vision for the next 50 years. Since then Korea has five years at a compound annual rate of 12.3 percent. By 2015, the total will be nearly US$290 million, a sizable 1 Bloomberg News, March 2011 opportunity for firms interested in breaking into the market. 2 Ibid. 1 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme, Smart Grid Insights. South Korea: Smart Grid Revolution | July 2011 Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
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Evident by the
nation’s metro areas gradually becoming development of smart grid infrastructure and technology. festooned with solar panels, broadband technology, and The starting point of these efforts is a binding commitment all-things-new-tech and billions in clean tech investment; to reduce the country’s carbon output in 2020 by 30 look for South Korea to not only gel seamlessly with the percent from the Business As Usual projections. Other smart grid revolution, but also lead it. targets aim to add value to energy efficiency by reducing usage by 10 percent, lowering the average annual South Korea: What’s the Government’s Role? blackout minutes per household from 15 minutes to nine and trimming transmission line loss to 3 percent. Perhaps eizing upon the countries past success with most significantly, the government aims to capture 30 consumer electronics, broadband internet and percent of the global smart grid market.6 The lofty mobile communications South Korea is taking bold economic goals include a projected 50,000 annual jobs steps toward global leadership in smart grid development. created, US$43 billion in avoided energy imports and $3 With the stated goal of creating a national smart grid, the billion in avoided power generation costs. Through the Korean government has partnered with industry, Ministry of Economic Knowledge the government has international groups and foreign countries to set out a 20- taken the lead in building coalitions, defining the smart year agenda intended to reduce the country’s carbon grid, establishing benchmarks and has already begun footprint and develop a new economic engine to implementing a roadmap (see page 3) that will guide the stimulate exports. A 2008 ―green-growth‖ national plan country from pilot projects through development and resulted in a subsequent committee that developed the commercialization of smart grid technology and ultimately country’s comprehensive smart grid roadmap in 2009. to a national smart grid. Korea plans to spend US$15.8 billion of government and private money on the smart grid between 2009 and 2016 – South Korea: Defining the Smart Grid. and between US$24 and US$30 billion by.3 The amount spent just on smart grid technology includes US$1.93 billion he government defines the smart grid as the from the government and US$4.23 billion from industry.4 convergence of electrical transmission and Another US$18.05 billion will be spent on smart grid information technology in five spheres: smart places, infrastructure build-out, with US$440 million of that coming smart renewables, smart electricity services, smart from the government.5 Domestically speaking, South transportation and smart power grid. The first of these is Korea has enough electric generation and transmission intended to enable enhanced consumer choice, capacity to meet its needs and already provides a integrating smart appliances with homes and buildings. relatively high level of power quality to industry and This portion of the project includes a goal of 100 percent citizens. Because of this, the government needed to diffusion of AMI and achieving the aforementioned establish policies that would incentivize private efficiency targets by 2030. Smart transportation entails Vehicle to Grid systems, nearly 2.5 million electric vehicles 3 KEPCO Smart Grid Announcement and Korea Smart Grid Institute (2010) 4 Ibid. 5 Korea Smart Grid Institute, 2010 6 Fehrenbacher, Katie, Get Ready for the South Korean Smart Grid Firms 2 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme, Smart Grid Insights. South Korea: Smart Grid Revolution | July 2011 Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
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3
www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme, Smart Grid Insights. South Korea: Smart Grid Revolution | July 2011
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used in country
and 27,140 charging stations all by 2030. renewable energy into the power grid. The final phase of Smart renewables refers to targets utilizing microgrids in the plan is construction of the national smart grid, a conjunction with wind and solar energy generation to project targeted to finish in 2030. increase that portion of Korea’s energy generation to 11 percent of load. In addition, this sphere targets 30 percent South Korea: International Smart Grid Role. of households to be energy self-sufficient (Katherine and Michael 2010).7 s one of Korea’s primary goals for its smart grid development is a significant economic boost from The smart power grid is intended to lay the groundwork for exporting technology, it should be no surprise that these developments by enhancing and enabling a wider the government has made a concentrated effort to range of interconnections between generation and load, coordinate their own smart grid efforts with the thus allowing implementation of new energy business international community. In 2009, the Ministry of models. Specifically, this will result in the smart electricity Knowledge Economy signed a Statement of Intent with services portion of the smart grid. Intended to take the US Department of Energy to set a foundation of advantage of energy production and information and collaboration with the smart grid technologies and several communication technology (ICT), these new services other segments of the green-economy. would rely upon real-time electricity trading and markets. The goal for this portion of the smart grid is to have 30 That same year, Korea, along with Italy, took the lead in percent of consumers participating in such services by developing a Technology Action Plan for Smart Grids for 2030. The national roadmap breaks these long-term goals the Major Economic Forum on Energy and Climate. The into three phases backed by significant government plan discusses the current status of smart grid investment in the smart grid sector. Phase One is the initial technologies, migration potential and partnerships construction of a smart grid test-bed on Jeju Island, and is globally. It offers up a set of best practices, incentives and scheduled to run from 2009 through 2012. It will include challenges. Finally, it makes recommendations for future work on the Smart Power Grid, Smart Places and Smart action and specific goals and timelines. Of these, Korea is Transportation, linking grid networks to consumers and EVs. already implanting most of the recommendations it has for developed countries. Primarily, these include setting Phase Two consists of taking the ideas and technologies specific, measurable goals and a national roadmap to from the test-bed and beginning a commercialization achieve them. Additionally, it encourages countries to process that will expand the smart grid into selected urban value energy efficiency and to develop policies such as areas. This phase is expected to run through 2020. Also real time pricing that maximizes smart grid benefits.8 referred to as the ―Expansion stage‖ it will build off of integrated operation from 2012-13 and focus on smart In 2010, Korea signed an historic partnership with the US renewables and electricity service. The goals are to State of Illinois to collaborate on smart grid provide new power services and accommodate 7 Katherine, Tweed; Michael, Kanellos, South Korea Guns for Smart Grid Finish Line 8 Korea Smart Grid Institute, 2010 4 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme, Smart Grid Insights. South Korea: Smart Grid Revolution | July 2011 Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
6.
technology. The Korea
Electrotechnology Research South Korea & KEPCO: What's at Stake? Institute and other related centers work with Illinois' Argonne National Laboratory and the University of n a country of 48 million people the state-owned Chicago to test and develop technologies. The Illinois Korean Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) is the only Department of Commerce is also included in the pilot power transmission line and distribution company. program to create smart grid technology at a facility on However, its government ties have not hampered its Jeju Island. Any commercialization resulting from this pilot international success. The company is a growing force in will be rolled out in both countries and promising urban international energy industries, particularly in the field of business models based in the smart grid will test in Chicago nuclear power. Like the government of Korea, KEPCO has and Seoul. lofty ambitions for its near-future, and aims to become one of the globe’s top five energy companies. KEPCO’s South Korea: Future Smart Grid Policies. anticipated success hinges on its adaptation to a low- carbon global economy with smart grid efforts n order to fulfill the promise of a national smart grid at a complimenting its nuclear generation and renewables quality high enough to export around the world, the portfolio. Because of KEPCO’s singular significance to the Korean government must continue to institute policies national electric grid, it is working with virtually every that will streamline its adoption. Primarily, the national company in the country involved with the smart grid and is government must promote R&D, especially in energy involved with all five of the roadmap sectors. Specifically, storage, core ICT technology and infrastructure, and they have leveraged partnerships with Hyundai Motors to reliable security for digital networks. Continuing the current develop charging infrastructure standardization and have policies and achieving stated efficiency and carbon developed two different EV charging station prototypes. It reduction targets should stimulate domestic demand for a is also developing Electricity Management Systems to growing smart grid industry, while adopting trade policies optimize energy use, building renewable generation favorable to these technologies will enhance global around the world, and is designated to lead the national demand for Korean goods in the sector. smart grid rollout. The national utility has implemented a self-healing system that complements diagnostic devices Observing and evaluating successful models developed in which have enabled the company to minimize blackout pilot programs is critical to step-wise implementation of times and set them up to lead such advances on the legal and regulatory frameworks needed to advance the smart grid front. The company estimates that renewable smart grid across the country over the coming decades. energy generation and the smart grid are going to Korea has already begun to turn its attention to these account for US$26 billion of their US$84.5 billion in total issues with a proposed Special Act on the Establishment revenues by 2030.9 Backing this up will be major and Support for Smart Power Grid investments in the smart grid—the equivalent of $7.18 billion by 2030.10 Of the total investment, $370 million per 9 KEPCO Annual Report, 2010 10 KEPCO Smart Grid Announcement, 2010 5 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme, Smart Grid Insights. South Korea: Smart Grid Revolution | July 2011 Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
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year will be
spent in the next five years, $2.1 billion through and government institutions will test technologies and 2020 and the remainder invested through 2030.11 business models to ultimately roll out in selected cities on mainland Korea. Participants in the Smart Places include South Korea: Smart Grid Pilots & Industry Players. SK Telecom, KT, LG and 101 other companies investing US$80 million.13 The Smart Transportation sphere involves SK eju Island, is Korea’s smart grid shining star, Energy, GS Caltex and 39 others totaling US$40 million. designated as the national test-bed for the five smart Companies participating with the Smart Renewables grid spheres identified by the government’s portion of the pilot include Hyundai, Posco and 37 others roadmap. The island is a ―special autonomous province‖ with total investment of US$35 million. The Korean Power less than 200 km south of mainland Korea and connected Exchange (KPX) and six other companies are putting with a 300 MWHVDC line. Jeju Island will potentially see US$15 million toward smart electricity service and the US$200 million invested in the smart grid between 2009 and Smart Power segment will include 21 other companies 2013.12 The project has recently completed construction of putting US$30 million toward automated protection and the Total Operation Center which will serve as a hub for recovery as well as smart transmitters. KEPCO, as stated is the various projects at work on island. The test bed involved with each of these spheres of the pilot program. includes work on in-home displays, appliances, smart South Korea's Net Electricity Generation, 2000 - 2015 meters, renewables and EVs. It will include a PR center and in billion kilowatt-hours 700 four exhibition halls. One aim is to draw conferences and 604 provide in depth demonstrations to outside businesses, 600 governments and universities in order to highlight the 500 project. Currently, the $65 million pilot program on Jeju has 439 a fully integrated Smart Grid System for 6,000 households; 400 wind farms and four distribution lines. 300 South Korea: Industry at a Glance. 200 100 hile the Korean national government, KEPCO, 0 the Korea Smart Grid Institute (KGSI), Jeju Special 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Autonomous Province and Korea Smart Grid Association are the key players in the Jeju Island pilot Figure 2 - Source: U.S. EIA & Zpryme (2010 – 2015 projection) project, the totality of the initiative involves a number of Korea’s global corporations and over 160 companies. IBM, KEPCO and the IEC have recently teamed up to These companies and organizations, along with academic develop a set of communications standards to be utilized in practice at the Jeju Island Total Operations Center. The 11Ibid. 12Kim, Jinho; Hong-Il, Park, A National Vision, IEEE Power & Energy Magazine (jan-feb 2011) 13 Ibid. 6 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme, Smart Grid Insights. South Korea: Smart Grid Revolution | July 2011 Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
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TOC will utilize
communications protocols to collect and nearly US$290 million, a sizable opportunity for firms manage information across different smart grid systems interested in breaking into the market. mad by more than 100 participating companies. "Operating the smart grid involves implementing a flexible Projected South Korea Smart Grid Market by Technology management strategy that takes into consideration the 2010 and 2015 | in U.S. millions various application standards, development speeds and requirements of that particular region," said Park Jong- Smart T&D $73.2 man, Deputy General Manager at the integrated control Equipment $40.5 center of KEPCO's Jeju Demonstration Complex. "This collaboration with IBM allows KEPCO to create a model $63.7 based on international standards, such as CIM that can be AMI $37.3 used to infuse intelligence into any smart grid infrastructure." "This collaboration with KEPCO will not only $50.4 improve operational efficiencies at the complex but will Sensors also help drive the development of international standard $25.1 technologies in the Korean smart grid market – allowing domestic businesses to operate and compete at an Software & $46.4 international level," said Guido Bartels, General Manager, Hardware $25.1 Energy and Utilities industry at IBM and Chairman, Global Smart Grid Federation. "IBM's continued work with KEPCO $45.9 Comm. & Wireless demonstrates a host of new opportunities and initiatives Infrastructure $28.7 that will provide a new level of insight for organizations around the world." The IBM system will enable Korean $10.1 companies to further enhance their global aspirations by Other giving the Jeju project a foundation in international $5.3 standards (IBM 2011). $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 Figure 3 - Source: Zpryme South Korea: Smart Grid Technology Market Size.14 Zpryme examined six different sectors of the smart grid outh Korea has a US$162 million smart grid industry in Korea; software and hardware, sensors, equipment and technology market, projected to communications and wireless infrastructure, smart T&D grow over the next five years at a compound equipment, AMI and ―other‖. Given Korea’s roadmap and annual rate of 12.3 percent. By 2015, the total will be targets, the breakdown of some smart grid market segments is not surprising. Zpryme’s smart grid technology forecast for South Korea does not account for 14 government or KEPCO investments in electricity infrastructure investments or transmission and distribution upgrades. 7 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme, Smart Grid Insights. South Korea: Smart Grid Revolution | July 2011 Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
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South Korea Smart
Grid Market by Segment (All figures in U.S. million dollars) CAGR Smart Grid Segment 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (2010 - 2015) Software & Hardware $25.1 $27.4 $30.7 $34.5 $37.4 $46.4 13.1% AMI $37.3 $41.4 $44.7 $49.1 $53.6 $63.7 11.3% Sensors $25.1 $28.6 $32.6 $38.8 $42.7 $50.4 15.0% Communications & Wireless $28.7 $31.8 $34.7 $37.8 $40.3 $45.9 9.9% Infrastructure Smart T&D Equipment $40.5 $44.6 $48.6 $55.8 $60.0 $73.2 12.6% Other $5.3 $6.3 $6.8 $7.1 $7.2 $10.1 13.6% Total Smart Grid Market Value $162.0 $180.0 $198.0 $223.2 $241.2 $289.8 12.3% Percent of Total Market 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Software & Hardware 15.5% 15.2% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% 16.0% AMI 23.0% 23.0% 22.6% 22.0% 22.2% 22.0% Sensors 15.5% 15.9% 16.5% 17.4% 17.7% 17.4% Communications & Wireless 17.7% 17.7% 17.5% 16.9% 16.7% 15.8% Infrastructure Smart T&D Equipment 25.0% 24.8% 24.5% 25.0% 24.9% 25.3% Other 3.3% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 3.5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Figure 4 - Source: Zpryme 8 8 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme, Smart Grid Insights. South Korea: Smart Grid Revolution | July 2011 Zpryme, Smart Grid Insights. South Korea: Smart Grid Revolution | July 2011 Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
10.
With the goal
of 100 percent penetration of AMI, that Projected South Korea Smart Grid Market Segemtation by market is projected to continue to dominate the industry Technology, 2015 through 2015, making up roughly 23 percent of the total smart grid space. As well, smart T&D equipment is projected to continue to make up roughly a quarter of 4% Software & Hardware 16% smart grid spending through the next five years. AMI 25% Projected South Korea Smart Grid Market Segemtation by Sensors Technology, 2010 22% Communications & Wireless Infrastructure Software & Hardware 3% Smart T&D Equipment 15% 16% AMI Other 25% 17% Sensors Figure 6 - Source: Zpryme 23% Communications & Wireless Infrastructure Even these two segments are only expected to deviate Smart T&D Equipment 18% two percentage points off their current proportions. While electricity distribution automation and transmission 16% Other upgrades present one of the largest opportunities, given KEPCO’s national monopoly on T&D and the history of Figure 5 - Source: Zpryme corporate success in Korea in the wireless and communications sector, the best areas to break into the From a 2010 baseline through 2015 the only segments market are likely to be in software, sensors and other projected to have any substantial change in market share information sectors. are communications and wireless infrastructure and sensors. South Korea: Entering the Smart Grid Market. iven the stated focus of growing the Korean economy via the smart grid, the best path for foreign corporations is likely a partnership with an indigenous firm. For example, Samsung has already signed a deal with eMeter and other conglomerates such as the SK Group or LG may be ripe for similar deals (e.g. LG has 9 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme, Smart Grid Insights. South Korea: Smart Grid Revolution | July 2011 Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
11.
already joined the
South Korean government's massive are actively involved in interactive, attractive, and initiative for smart grid infrastructure). Another opportunity smart consumer electronics and appliances. lies in developing renewable integration software and 3. South Korea’s energy sector will benefit from the systems that enable collaboration across the utility value recently-implemented free trade deal with the chain. Recently, IBM announced its collaboration with European Union (EU) in its efforts to enhance the POSCO ICT to develop South Korea's first renewable nation's overall competitiveness. energy management system for a smart grid. Domestic players are not alone. Some industry observers have noted that blue chips like GE, Siemens, and ABB are seeking roles in the large market and may have an advantage over Korean competition when it comes to trailblazing smart grid technologies, "particularly in system integration and monitoring", said Li of China Investment Consulting. Smart grid segments that will thrive in South Korea as follows ((1) Zpryme Credits: high to (5) less importance): Editor Managing Editor Research Lead Jacob Cottingham Robert Langston Stefan Trifonov 1. Smart T&D Equipment 2. AMI Additional Contributions Made By: 3. Sensors Guido Bartels General Manager, Energy and Utilities industry at 4. Software & Hardware IBM and Chairman, Global Smart Grid Federation 5. Communications & Wireless Infrastructure Park Jong-man Deputy General Manager at the integrated control center of KEPCO's Jeju Demonstration Complex In addition to the most favorable smart grid segments to Jae-Seob Kim CEO of Korea Smart Grid Institute (KSGI) enter above, it’s important to note: Disclaimer: 1. The smart grid trend will be the catalyst for massive These materials and the information contained herein are provided by Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC and are electric vehicle (EV) deployment, thus opportunities intended to provide general information on a particular subject or subjects and is not an exhaustive treatment of such subject(s). Accordingly, the information in these materials is not intended to constitute accounting, tax, legal, to enter EV markets such as charging infrastructure, investment, consulting or other professional advice or services. The information is not intended to be relied upon as the sole basis for any decision which may affect you or your business. Before making any decision or taking any hardware/software and next-gen automotive action that might affect your personal finances or business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. These materials and the information contained herein is provided as is, and Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC makes no manufacturing will be worth the Korean pursuit. For express or implied representations or warranties regarding these materials and the information herein. Without limiting the foregoing, Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC does not warrant that the materials or information contained example utilities will want to leverage their herein will be error-free or will meet any particular criteria of performance or quality. Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC expressly disclaims all implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, title, fitness investment in smart meters and make them the for a particular purpose, noninfringement, compatibility, security, and accuracy. Prediction of future events is inherently subject to both known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to nucleus for most consumption of electricity, vary materially. Your use of these and the information contained herein is at your own risk and you assume full responsibility and risk of loss resulting from the use thereof. Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC will not be liable for any including EVs. special, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages or any other damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, statute, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), or otherwise, relating to the use of these 2. Smart appliances for pilot smart grid initiatives will materials and the information contained herein. come out of Korea’s backyard as LG and Samsung 10 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme, Smart Grid Insights. South Korea: Smart Grid Revolution | July 2011 Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
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www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme, Smart Grid Insights. South Korea: Smart Grid Revolution | July 2011 Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
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