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Writing the Business Plan




   Geoff Huston
Whats the Business
Objective?

 Long Term ISP business
 Growth and Sale
 National Agenda
 Leverage from other activities
 Risk protection
Business Planning Process

 Identify Market opportunity
 Identify Costs
 Model Tariffs
 Model Business Requirements
Market Identification

 Define Market segment
  size
  uptake
  competitive position
  market position
Identifying Costs

 capital costs
 recurrent costs
 marketing costs
 staff and administrative costs
Capital Costs
 equipment
  core routers
    capital cost depreciation at 30% p.a.
  access servers
    capital cost depreciation at 30%pa
    capital cost per access port charged to customer
Capital Costs

  service platforms
    ratio of service platforms to customer numbers
    depreciation at 30% pa
  staff equipment
    fixed capital cost per staff member
    can be converted to recurrent via capital
    depreciation at a rate of 30% pa
Recurrent Costs

 equipment housing costs
   equipment location costs
 lease line costs
   telco leases
   radio equipment costs
     can be converted to recurrent cost of ownership at
     20% depreciation of capital value
Marketing costs

 advertising
 staff
 publications, seminars, other marketing
 activities
 Total can be considered as a connection
 cost per client
Staff and Administrative costs
 technical support staff
   usually fixed number
   staff churn cost (30%)
 support desk staff
   usually incremental off the customer base
 administrative staff
   usually fixed number
 Other administrative costs
   billing costs
   debt risk factor
Lets put this together for a
medium sized national ISP

 Cost Totals
 Cost proportions
 Scaling overheads as a percentage of
 capacity costs

 generation of the business model via
 marginal cost examination
Costs

       Leased Line costs - recurrent expenditure

Link Cost Calculation Worksheet

The costs used here are not derived from any particular network - they are a simple example only




Target Line Loading Factor 0%
                         5                  Line loading before more bandwidth is required
International Line costs

International Circuit cost calculation
                          Capacity of the circuit Kbps              2048
            Cost of the circuit - total lease cost monthly   $   120,000
                                       Megabytes monthly         685,670
                 Max sustainable loading factor                      50%
                    Max sustainable traffic level                 342835
    Break even cost per megabyte at target load              $      0.35
Domestic Line costs
Domestic Circuit cost calculation
                         Capacity of the circuit Kbps              2048
   Average cost of the circuit - total lease cost monthly   $     8,000
                                      Megabytes monthly         685,670
                      Max sustainable loading                       50%
                   Max sustainable traffic level                342,835
                            cost per megabyte               $      0.02
                                  line imbalance                    0.75
                                Topology Factor                      1.5
                            cost per megabyte               $      0.02
Marginal Transmission cost

Traffic Balance
                                  International   65% $   0.24
                                         Trunk    22% $   0.01
                                         Local    13% $    -
                  Total Delivered cost per Mb         $   0.25
Marginal Cost

         Calculate staff and equipment costs as a
         fixed overhead on the traffic volume - this
         allows the business to generate working
         capital to expand

                   Total Delivered cost per Mb    $   0.25

Overheads
                Fixed rate overhead calculation       20%

Marginal Cost                                     $   0.30
Capital Investment cost
         The enterprise will require initial capital investment
         which must generate positive earnings, which must
         be factored into the model



Marginal Cost                                        $   0.30

Return on cashflow                                        5%

Target Average Retail Price per delivered Megabyte   $   0.31
Retail Pricing Model

 Use a 64K access line as the basic unit of
 connection
 Assume an average line loading of
 business usage
   average line occupancy of 20%
 Determine retail pricing from marginal cost
 at average line occupancy
 Flat Rate pricing
Retail Pricing Model
Retail Model

64K connection Costs

            Maximum delivery capacity (Mb)           monthly         21427
                     Average line occupancy                            27%
                   Average line delivery (Mb)        monthly         5,785
                                  marginal cost                $      0.31
             Net service cost (transmission)         monthly   $   1,806.46
          Max service liability (avg traffic flow)   monthly   $   6,690.60
           Max service liability (absolute risk)     monthly   $   9,450.00



                         Fixed Flat rate tariff Monthly        $   1,806.46
Risk Reduction

 Reduce risk of over exposure by using
 ‘high’ and ‘low’ volume tariff steps
                                        Client Spread

                        50
    Number of Clients




                        40

                        30

                        20

                        10

                        0
                             0%   20%     40%     60%     80%   100%
                                         Line Occupancy
Stepped Retail Tariff

                Fixed Flat rate tariff Monthly   $   1,806.46

                    Dual Rate Tariff                     40%
   Low band average line occupancy                       18%
   High band average line occupancy                      59%
                               Low monthly       $   1,204.31
                               High monthly      $   3,934.07
Additional Services

 Offer services at a variety of access
 speeds
 Use differential tariffs to encourage
 reselling
 Use a flater tariffs to strength direct retail
 position
Additional Services
Tiered Access Pricing

                                                                Tier Factor
       leased PSTN modem, rated at 19.2K             19.2              1.40
                                     64K               64              1.20
                                    128K              128              1.10
                                    256K              256              1.05
                                    512K              512              1.00

Retail Schedule
                                           Fixed            2 Tier
                                                            Low               High
       leased PSTN modem, rated at 19.2K   $         759    $         281     $       918
                                     64K   $        2,168   $        1,445    $      4,721
                                    128K   $        3,974   $        2,649    $      8,655
                                    256K   $        7,587   $        5,058    $   20,654
                                    512K   $       14,452   $        9,634    $   31,473
Dial Access

 Transmission is a minor cost for dial
 access
 Also must factor in:
   modem capital cost and limited service life
   phone support with large after hours component
   marketing cost
   customer churn rate
   target market capture level (competitive price
   sensivity)
Dial Access
Modem Access Pricing

Cost per modem hour
                        Average modem speed kbps                26
                                  MBytes/hour                 10.4
                      Average line loading level             10%
                             At Marginal Retail         $    0.32
                       Service Activity Loading             300%
                      Retail - minimum level hourly     $    1.30

                Initial retail marketing margin              30%

                                        Retail hourly   $   1.69
The Business Challenge

 How to manage exponential




     GROWTH
The Business Plan

 Establish tariff position
 Estimate Market size for the service
 Calculate Revenue
 Calculate service provision costs
 Revenue - costs = bottom line
Estimate Demand
Bu sin ess Plan
                                  Year 1         Year 2          Year 3          Year 4
Services I n Op erat io n (SI O)


                         Typ e

                           dial            300            2000            4000            10000
                  dial modems               30             200             400             1000
                          pstn              10              20              40              150
                          64K               20              40             100              200
                         128K                4               6              15               40
                         256K                0               2               8               25
                         512K                0               0               5               15

                       TOTAL               64             268             568             1430
Calculate Revenue

Reven u e                            $                 $                 $                $
       Connection charges     210,000           588,000           832,000        2,250,000
           Access charges
                      dial      73,962          394,466           739,623        1,479,246
                     pstn        7,587           15,174            30,349          113,807
                     64K        72,837          145,673           364,183          728,365
                    128K        26,707           40,060           100,150          267,067
                    256K             0           29,210           116,842          365,131
                    512K             0                0           121,394          364,183

                   TOTAL     3 9 1 ,0 9 3   1 ,2 1 2 ,5 8 4   2 ,3 0 4 ,5 4 1   5 ,5 6 7 ,8 0 0
Scale the Network

       Estimate communications capacity to
       service the client base



Cap acit y calcu lat io n
              Calc Line Lease   132   427    1,116      2,827
         Act u al Lin e Lease   128   512   1 ,0 2 4   3 ,0 3 6
Estimate Costs

          Factor in service provision costs


Co st s
              Equipment      140,000           420,000           640,000        1,800,000
              Line Lease      82,500           330,000           660,000        1,956,797
                    Staff    250,000           350,000           450,000          500,000
               Marketing           0            50,000           100,000          150,000
              Overheads      120,000           120,000           140,000          200,000

                 TOTAL      5 9 2 ,5 0 0   1 ,2 7 0 ,0 0 0   1 ,9 9 0 ,0 0 0   4 ,6 0 6 ,7 9 7
The Bottom Line

Am I winning or losing at this tariff and
             market level?

     Reven u e         3 9 1 ,0 9 3     1 ,2 1 2 ,5 8 4    2 ,3 0 4 ,5 4 1   5 ,5 6 7 ,8 0 0

          Co st s      5 9 2 ,5 0 0     1 ,2 7 0 ,0 0 0    1 ,9 9 0 ,0 0 0   4 ,6 0 6 ,7 9 7

   Pro f it / lo ss   (2 0 1 ,4 0 7 )      (5 7 ,4 1 6 )     3 1 4 ,5 4 1      9 6 1 ,0 0 3

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Busplan

  • 1. Writing the Business Plan Geoff Huston
  • 2. Whats the Business Objective? Long Term ISP business Growth and Sale National Agenda Leverage from other activities Risk protection
  • 3. Business Planning Process Identify Market opportunity Identify Costs Model Tariffs Model Business Requirements
  • 4. Market Identification Define Market segment size uptake competitive position market position
  • 5. Identifying Costs capital costs recurrent costs marketing costs staff and administrative costs
  • 6. Capital Costs equipment core routers capital cost depreciation at 30% p.a. access servers capital cost depreciation at 30%pa capital cost per access port charged to customer
  • 7. Capital Costs service platforms ratio of service platforms to customer numbers depreciation at 30% pa staff equipment fixed capital cost per staff member can be converted to recurrent via capital depreciation at a rate of 30% pa
  • 8. Recurrent Costs equipment housing costs equipment location costs lease line costs telco leases radio equipment costs can be converted to recurrent cost of ownership at 20% depreciation of capital value
  • 9. Marketing costs advertising staff publications, seminars, other marketing activities Total can be considered as a connection cost per client
  • 10. Staff and Administrative costs technical support staff usually fixed number staff churn cost (30%) support desk staff usually incremental off the customer base administrative staff usually fixed number Other administrative costs billing costs debt risk factor
  • 11. Lets put this together for a medium sized national ISP Cost Totals Cost proportions Scaling overheads as a percentage of capacity costs generation of the business model via marginal cost examination
  • 12. Costs Leased Line costs - recurrent expenditure Link Cost Calculation Worksheet The costs used here are not derived from any particular network - they are a simple example only Target Line Loading Factor 0% 5 Line loading before more bandwidth is required
  • 13. International Line costs International Circuit cost calculation Capacity of the circuit Kbps 2048 Cost of the circuit - total lease cost monthly $ 120,000 Megabytes monthly 685,670 Max sustainable loading factor 50% Max sustainable traffic level 342835 Break even cost per megabyte at target load $ 0.35
  • 14. Domestic Line costs Domestic Circuit cost calculation Capacity of the circuit Kbps 2048 Average cost of the circuit - total lease cost monthly $ 8,000 Megabytes monthly 685,670 Max sustainable loading 50% Max sustainable traffic level 342,835 cost per megabyte $ 0.02 line imbalance 0.75 Topology Factor 1.5 cost per megabyte $ 0.02
  • 15. Marginal Transmission cost Traffic Balance International 65% $ 0.24 Trunk 22% $ 0.01 Local 13% $ - Total Delivered cost per Mb $ 0.25
  • 16. Marginal Cost Calculate staff and equipment costs as a fixed overhead on the traffic volume - this allows the business to generate working capital to expand Total Delivered cost per Mb $ 0.25 Overheads Fixed rate overhead calculation 20% Marginal Cost $ 0.30
  • 17. Capital Investment cost The enterprise will require initial capital investment which must generate positive earnings, which must be factored into the model Marginal Cost $ 0.30 Return on cashflow 5% Target Average Retail Price per delivered Megabyte $ 0.31
  • 18. Retail Pricing Model Use a 64K access line as the basic unit of connection Assume an average line loading of business usage average line occupancy of 20% Determine retail pricing from marginal cost at average line occupancy Flat Rate pricing
  • 19. Retail Pricing Model Retail Model 64K connection Costs Maximum delivery capacity (Mb) monthly 21427 Average line occupancy 27% Average line delivery (Mb) monthly 5,785 marginal cost $ 0.31 Net service cost (transmission) monthly $ 1,806.46 Max service liability (avg traffic flow) monthly $ 6,690.60 Max service liability (absolute risk) monthly $ 9,450.00 Fixed Flat rate tariff Monthly $ 1,806.46
  • 20. Risk Reduction Reduce risk of over exposure by using ‘high’ and ‘low’ volume tariff steps Client Spread 50 Number of Clients 40 30 20 10 0 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Line Occupancy
  • 21. Stepped Retail Tariff Fixed Flat rate tariff Monthly $ 1,806.46 Dual Rate Tariff 40% Low band average line occupancy 18% High band average line occupancy 59% Low monthly $ 1,204.31 High monthly $ 3,934.07
  • 22. Additional Services Offer services at a variety of access speeds Use differential tariffs to encourage reselling Use a flater tariffs to strength direct retail position
  • 23. Additional Services Tiered Access Pricing Tier Factor leased PSTN modem, rated at 19.2K 19.2 1.40 64K 64 1.20 128K 128 1.10 256K 256 1.05 512K 512 1.00 Retail Schedule Fixed 2 Tier Low High leased PSTN modem, rated at 19.2K $ 759 $ 281 $ 918 64K $ 2,168 $ 1,445 $ 4,721 128K $ 3,974 $ 2,649 $ 8,655 256K $ 7,587 $ 5,058 $ 20,654 512K $ 14,452 $ 9,634 $ 31,473
  • 24. Dial Access Transmission is a minor cost for dial access Also must factor in: modem capital cost and limited service life phone support with large after hours component marketing cost customer churn rate target market capture level (competitive price sensivity)
  • 25. Dial Access Modem Access Pricing Cost per modem hour Average modem speed kbps 26 MBytes/hour 10.4 Average line loading level 10% At Marginal Retail $ 0.32 Service Activity Loading 300% Retail - minimum level hourly $ 1.30 Initial retail marketing margin 30% Retail hourly $ 1.69
  • 26. The Business Challenge How to manage exponential GROWTH
  • 27. The Business Plan Establish tariff position Estimate Market size for the service Calculate Revenue Calculate service provision costs Revenue - costs = bottom line
  • 28. Estimate Demand Bu sin ess Plan Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Services I n Op erat io n (SI O) Typ e dial 300 2000 4000 10000 dial modems 30 200 400 1000 pstn 10 20 40 150 64K 20 40 100 200 128K 4 6 15 40 256K 0 2 8 25 512K 0 0 5 15 TOTAL 64 268 568 1430
  • 29. Calculate Revenue Reven u e $ $ $ $ Connection charges 210,000 588,000 832,000 2,250,000 Access charges dial 73,962 394,466 739,623 1,479,246 pstn 7,587 15,174 30,349 113,807 64K 72,837 145,673 364,183 728,365 128K 26,707 40,060 100,150 267,067 256K 0 29,210 116,842 365,131 512K 0 0 121,394 364,183 TOTAL 3 9 1 ,0 9 3 1 ,2 1 2 ,5 8 4 2 ,3 0 4 ,5 4 1 5 ,5 6 7 ,8 0 0
  • 30. Scale the Network Estimate communications capacity to service the client base Cap acit y calcu lat io n Calc Line Lease 132 427 1,116 2,827 Act u al Lin e Lease 128 512 1 ,0 2 4 3 ,0 3 6
  • 31. Estimate Costs Factor in service provision costs Co st s Equipment 140,000 420,000 640,000 1,800,000 Line Lease 82,500 330,000 660,000 1,956,797 Staff 250,000 350,000 450,000 500,000 Marketing 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 Overheads 120,000 120,000 140,000 200,000 TOTAL 5 9 2 ,5 0 0 1 ,2 7 0 ,0 0 0 1 ,9 9 0 ,0 0 0 4 ,6 0 6 ,7 9 7
  • 32. The Bottom Line Am I winning or losing at this tariff and market level? Reven u e 3 9 1 ,0 9 3 1 ,2 1 2 ,5 8 4 2 ,3 0 4 ,5 4 1 5 ,5 6 7 ,8 0 0 Co st s 5 9 2 ,5 0 0 1 ,2 7 0 ,0 0 0 1 ,9 9 0 ,0 0 0 4 ,6 0 6 ,7 9 7 Pro f it / lo ss (2 0 1 ,4 0 7 ) (5 7 ,4 1 6 ) 3 1 4 ,5 4 1 9 6 1 ,0 0 3