IEA World Energy Outlook 2018
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IEA flagship world energy outlook- 2018 Published on 13th November
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IEA World Energy Outlook 2018
- 1. © OECD/IEA 2018 London 13 November 2018
- 2. © OECD/IEA 2018 Today’s energy context Mixed signals about the pace & direction of change in global energy: Oil markets are entering a period of renewed uncertainty & volatility Natural gas is on the rise: China’s rapid demand growth is erasing talk of a ‘gas glut’ Solar PV has the momentum while other key technologies & efficiency policies need a push Our assessment points to energy-related CO2 emissions reaching a historic high in 2018 For the first time, the global population without access to electricity fell below 1 billion Electricity is carrying great expectations, but questions remain over the extent of its reach in meeting demand & how the power systems of the future will operate Policy makers need well-grounded insights about different possible futures & how they come about. The WEO provides two key scenarios: New Policies Scenario Sustainable Development Scenario
- 3. © OECD/IEA 2018 2000 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe The new geography of energy Energy demand In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20% in developing economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.
- 4. © OECD/IEA 2018 2000 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2001 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2002 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2003 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2004 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2005 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2006 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States China European Union Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2007 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States China European Union Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2008 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States China European Union Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2009 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2010 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2011 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2012 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2013 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2014 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2015 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2016 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2017 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe The new geography of energy Energy demand In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20% in developing economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.
- 5. © OECD/IEA 2018 2000 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2001 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2002 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2003 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2004 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2005 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2006 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States China European Union Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2007 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States China European Union Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2008 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States China European Union Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2009 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2010 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2011 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2012 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2013 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2014 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2015 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2016 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2017 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2018 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2019 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2020 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe The new geography of energy Energy demand In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20% in developing economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed. 2021 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2022 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2023 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2024 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2025 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2026 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2027 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2028 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2029 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2030 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2031 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2032 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2033 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2034 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2035 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2036 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2037 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2038 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2039 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2040 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India Africa European Union Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2040 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India Africa European Union Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.
- 6. © OECD/IEA 2018 Oil Advanced economies Developing economies Gas Advanced economies Developing economies Fuelling the demand for energy The increase in demand would be twice as large without continued improvements in energy efficiency, a powerful tool to address energy security & sustainability concerns Coal Advanced economies Developing economies Change in global energy demand, 2017-2040 -600 -300 0 300 600 900 1 200 1 500 Renewables & nuclear Mtoe Advanced economies Developing economies RenewablesNuclear Industry Other Power Cars Other Petro- chemical Cars Power Other Power
- 7. © OECD/IEA 2018 Can US shale alone avoid a turbulent oil market? Global oil outlook Oil demand looks robust in the near term; if approvals of new conventional projects remain low, market stability would require continuous exceptional growth in US shale 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105mb/d Growth required from US shale Growth from other sources (at current project approval rates) Demand 2010 2015 2020 2025 Currently producing fields
- 8. © OECD/IEA 2018 Shares in long-distance gas trade, 2017 Pipeline China – the emerging giant of gas demand Developing countries in Asia – led by China – dominate the rise in long-distance gas trade; Net gas imports in 2017 -100 0 100 200 300 400 ChinaEuropean Union Japan & Korea India Southeast Asia bcm LNG more than 80% of the growth to 2040 comes in the form of LNG
- 9. © OECD/IEA 2018 Shares in long-distance gas trade, 2017 Pipeline China – the emerging giant of gas demand Developing countries in Asia – led by China – dominate the rise in long-distance gas trade; Net gas imports in 2017 -100 0 100 200 300 400 ChinaEuropean Union Japan & Korea India Southeast Asia bcm Net gas imports in 2040 LNG Shares in long-distance gas trade, 2040 more than 80% of the growth to 2040 comes in the form of LNG
- 10. © OECD/IEA 2018 Our energy destiny rests with governments Total investment in energy supply More than 70% of the $2 trillion required each year in energy supply investment either comes from state-directed entities or receives a full or partial revenue guarantee 2018-2040 42.3 trillion dollars Government-driven 70% Market-driven 30%
- 11. © OECD/IEA 2018 2 1 Mobilise existing power system flexibility 4 3 Targeted investment in flexibility needed Flexibility: the cornerstone of tomorrow’s power systems Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2017 Higher shares of variable renewables raise flexibility needs and call for reforms to deliver investment in power plants, grids & energy storage, and unlock demand-side response Integration phase Wind and solar PV share of generation 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% India China United States European Union Germany United Kingdom
- 12. © OECD/IEA 2018 All sources of flexibility needed 6 5 2 1 Mobilise existing power system flexibility 4 3 Targeted investment in flexibility needed Flexibility: the cornerstone of tomorrow’s power systems Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2017 Higher shares of variable renewables raise flexibility needs and call for reforms to deliver investment in power plants, grids & energy storage, and unlock demand-side response Integration phase Wind and solar PV share of generation 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2030 India China United States European Union Germany United Kingdom
- 13. © OECD/IEA 2018 40 80 120 160 China Russia India GW 2017 Two directions for nuclear power Without policy changes The contribution of nuclear power could decline substantially in leading markets, while large growth is coming, as China takes first position within a decade 40 80 120 160 United States European Union Japan Retirements from 2017 2040 GW Growth markets Additions to 2040 2017
- 14. © OECD/IEA 2018 25 50 75 100 125 2015 2020 2030 2040 Oil demand (mb/d) 8 16 24 32 40 2015 2020 2030 2040 Energy-related CO2 emissions (Gt) What if the future is electric? Increased electrification leads to a peak in oil demand Scenario: Future is Electric New Policies , avoids 2 million air pollution- related premature deaths, but does not necessarily lead to large CO2 emissions reductions 25 30 35 40 45 2015 2020 2030 2040 Electricity demand (thousand TWh) 20
- 15. © OECD/IEA 2018 Can we unlock a different energy future? Global energy-related CO2 emissions Coal plants make up one-third of CO2 emissions today and half are less than 15 years old; policies are needed to support CCUS, efficient operations and technology innovation 12 18 24 30 2017 2025 2030 2035 2040 Gt 36 Sustainable Development Scenario 6 New Policies Scenario Existing and under construction power plants, factories, buildings etc.
- 16. © OECD/IEA 2018 Can we unlock a different energy future? Global energy-related CO2 emissions Coal plants make up one-third of CO2 emissions today and half are less than 15 years old; policies are needed to support CCUS, efficient operations and technology innovation 12 18 24 30 2017 2025 2030 2035 2040 Gt 36 Sustainable Development Scenario Coal-fired power plants 6 New Policies Scenario Existing and under construction power plants, factories, buildings etc.
- 17. © OECD/IEA 2018 Can we unlock a different energy future? Global energy-related CO2 emissions Coal plants make up one-third of CO2 emissions today and half are less than 15 years old; policies are needed to support CCUS, efficient operations and technology innovation 12 18 24 30 2017 2025 2030 2035 2040 Gt 36 Sustainable Development Scenario Coal-fired power plants Increased room to manoeuvre 6 New Policies Scenario Existing and under construction power plants, factories, buildings etc.
- 18. © OECD/IEA 2018 Conclusions The links between energy & geopolitics are strengthening & becoming more complex, a major factor in the outlook for energy security A mismatch between robust oil demand in the near term & a shortfall in new projects risks a sharp tightening of oil markets in the 2020s The rapid growth of electricity brings huge opportunities; but market designs need to deliver both electricity and flexibility to keep the lights on There is no single solution to turn emissions around: renewables, efficiency & a host of innovative technologies, including storage, CCUS & hydrogen, are all required The future pathway for energy is open: governments will determine where our energy destiny lies